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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    Me neither. You took what I wrote out of context, which I do admit is understandable given how I phrased it. But then I subsequently clarified what I meant. The point was in the context of the thread, in particular the Twins ability to evaluate their own talent. My comment was a direct follow up on that issue. Teams have torn things down, they have been destroyed by injuries, but it is rare for a team to be so wrong about where they stand as the Twins were when their losing stretch began and even as it continued (e.g., not trading Willingham). If your team is wiped out by unpredictable injuries, did management really fail? I would say no, that it would depend on the organization's response to the unfortunate circumstances. The Twins situation was not really unpredictable, and they responded poorly. Revise my verbiage to a 'serious fail' if that would avoid the sin of hyperbole, but there's no question it happened and that it has relevance to the club's situation today.
  2. drivlikejehu
    Except nowhere did I say anything about the number of losses, significant though they were. How many teams lost 265 games in 4 years after moving to a new ballpark and setting a record in payroll during the off-season before that stretch kicked off? Of course that fact pattern is too narrow - but it's not correct to say that all losing stretches are created equal. They aren't, any more than it's the same when you compare a winning stretch for St. Louis with one for the Yankees.
  3. drivlikejehu
    I didn't say the most losses. The Twins thought they were contenders in 2011 - Houston hit bottom after intentionally tearing down the club completely as part of a rebuilding effort. The situations aren't remotely equivalent. The Nationals lost 100 games twice in a row but still, their 4 year stretch was only 5 total games worse than the Twins, and they were rebuilding in the wake of a franchise relocation. The Twins set their all-time payroll record in 2011 and fully planned to contend. They only started to rebuild - haltingly - after the club utterly disintegrated. That was the epic fail.
  4. drivlikejehu
    I think it's by far the weakest position in the organization.
  5. drivlikejehu
    Plouffe is interesting. He was drafted in 2004 but didn't figure out minor league pitching until 2011. It translated to the Majors in 2014. Anyway, if another GM wants Plouffe, they can call Ryan, and it's rare for a player to be truly untouchable. Plouffe certainly isn't. But I do have a hard time seeing what kind of trade would make sense. He's not good enough to bring back elite talent, but he's too good to give up for a limited return. And he only has 2 years left under team control after this season.
  6. drivlikejehu
    Keep in mind that a replacement-level MLB player is actually a good AAA player. Veterans produce in AAA all the time despite not being very good; clubs keep them around in case of emergency. That's what Milone is. He has no place in the Twins rotation now or in the foreseeable future.
  7. drivlikejehu
    The Twins had a period of epic failure from 2011-2014, one of the worst in modern baseball history. So for the team to get lucky for a few weeks and then say the organization is on top of things is just a huge reach, in my opinion, that flies in the face of any conceivable objective analysis. With respect to BaseRuns, it does not use WAR; BaseRuns is a team measure, not an individual one. It is a linear weights approach that basically is (baserunners * score_rate + home runs). Score rate is what differentiates say, a single from a triple, or a sacrifice bunt from a strikeout. There is no voodoo like you might argue with projection systems - it's very sound statistically and there isn't any noise to speak of. Pythag by comparison is not nearly as accurate, and it doesn't consider that a team was lucky or unlucky in terms of runs scored or allowed. It really isn't very valuable. The bottom line is that success isn't about where a team is on May 20. Regardless of production, luck, etc., there is a ton of season left. If the Twins wind up with 95 losses, I'm going to be very reluctant to praise them for being over .500 in late May. Tell me that carrying below replacement level players was a smart move in the September and October threads.
  8. drivlikejehu
    Um false, they are better predictors than ERA itself for the rest of the current season. This is not even a point of debate anymore.
  9. drivlikejehu
    Per BaseRuns on FG - linear weights adjusted for the fact that a better offense gets more PAs - the Twins are playing at the level of a 15-24 team. That would translate to a 162-game record of 64-98. Note that this is actually far below the projections Fangraphs has based on zips and steamer. They see the Twins as a 73-win caliber team from here on out, and with the banked wins, ending up with 77. The Twins have been very, very lucky so far. But Twins management surely does not realize this, which in turn is contributing to bad roster decisions. Understanding basic statistical concepts of this sort is crucial to successfully running a team these days.
  10. drivlikejehu
    The Twins are making bad roster decisions that are going to cost them wins. So while 80 wins could be achieved from a talent standpoint, they will wind up in the mid-70s due to poor management.
  11. drivlikejehu
    Rosario is over-matched, and his defense won't come close to making up for the bad offensive numbers.
  12. drivlikejehu
    I can't wait for the creative excuses we will see when the Twins start paying the price for filling their roster with replacement level (or below) players.
  13. drivlikejehu
    I guess we should at least be glad to have Nunez back; he's in the prime of his fantastic -1.4 WAR career. Can he reach -2.0? The Twins certainly want to find out.
  14. drivlikejehu
    And the roster mismanagement continues...
  15. drivlikejehu
    Except we know that Sano does not have exceptional range to make up for his horrible error rate.
  16. drivlikejehu
    Not really clear what his "power rankings" mean. The Twins are obviously not the 9th best team in baseball in terms of talent, rest of season projection, etc. If you mostly go by record, then the ranking is pointless (as Olney's appears to be).
  17. drivlikejehu
    So fielding % doesn't count but jokin watching 1 game does? In which Sano blew an easy play? Not really a sensible comment on your part.
  18. drivlikejehu
    Sano's fielding % is .885. Plouffe's is .971 and Dozier's .995. And it's not like Sano is making up for it with amazing range. Plouffe is under team control through 2017... Mauer's contract is up after 2018. Seems like the obvious move is to have Sano play outfield until he can move to first in 2019. Assuming he is able to produce in the Majors of course.
  19. drivlikejehu
    Plouffe may be a better outfielder than Sano, but he wouldn't be better than a real outfielder, and moving Plouffe there would basically tank his value as a player. Sano is a pretty good athlete for his size - his problems at third base aren't due to speed... he just can't play the position.
  20. drivlikejehu
    Sano took walks in April, too, he was just striking out too much and not consistently hitting the ball well. Hopefully he stays comfortable at the plate and healthy.
  21. drivlikejehu
    1 - Buxton, Byron CF 2 - Sano, Miguel 3B 3 - Berrios, Jose RHP 4 - Polanco, Jorge SS/2B 5 - Gordon, Nick SS 6 - Gonsalves, Stephen LHP 7 - Hu, Chih-Wei RHP 8 - Stewart, Kohl RHP 9 - Meyer, Alex RHP 10 - Minier, Amaurys OF 11 - Kepler, Max OF 12 - Thorpe, Lewis LHP 13 - Rosario, Eddie OF 14 - Reed, Jake RHP 15 - Booser, Cameron LHP 16 - Burdi, Nick RHP 17 - Duffey, Tyler RHP 18 - Harrison, Travis OF 19 - Jones, Zach RHP 20 - Diaz, Lewin 1B Next five (not ordered): RHP Chargois, RHP Cederoth, OF Walker, LHP Rogers, RHP Ynoa
  22. drivlikejehu
    Fangraphs actually does graph that, for every single game... click on "scores."
  23. drivlikejehu
    FIP and xFIP normalize BABIP, so that aspect is taken out of the equation. FIP: 6.43, xFIP: 7.35
  24. drivlikejehu
    He's had one good season in his career... I thought he should have been non-tendered in the off-season, and he certainly needs to go at this point. Thielbar isn't amazing but he's certainly better than Duensing.
  25. drivlikejehu
    Seems like he has a lot of holes in his game. He struggled in the minors for a reason.
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