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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    Of course there is risk but there is also reward. Of course Odor or Berrios could have short starts. There is probably a higher risk that Perez and Gibson pitch 3 innings and we are behind 5-0. You don't have unlimited roster but instead of the 5 starter 7 reliever combo that you have during the regular season you would have a 2 starter 10 reliever combo with the 2 starters being your best two starters. You also have two days off in a 5 game series. We have a lot of relievers, and I mean a lot, that are more capable of pitching 2-3 quality innings than Perez or Gibson so it would be kind of silly to try to get 5 or 6 quality innings out of those two. Its just a matter of turning quantity of good relievers vs mediocre starters to our advantage.
  2. Dantes929
    Take a look at the Yankees starters and tell me we can't compete with them with what we have. One guy barely under 4.00 ERA. Their strength is their offense and their bullpen. So is ours. Houston is a different story. We have about as much chance against them as our 87 team did against the Tigers. No sarcasm or snarkiness intended there. They had 9-0 Doyle Alexander with a 1.53 ERA, Jack Morris in his prime and two good other starters. We were 4-8 against them during the regular season. Twins were not likely to beat them. If anything this team has a better chance against the Astros.
  3. Dantes929
    Valencia hit .311 that year. Hardy was decent as well at .268. It was a very good lineup but the big bummer was Morneau had an OPS of 1.055 after 81 games before going down with concussion.
  4. Dantes929
    Rogers, May, Duffey, Romo, Littell, Smeltzer, Dobnak, Harper,and Stashak all have ERA's well under 4.00. Then we have Graterol that throws strikes at 100 mph and very likely would join the club of sub 4.00 with more innings. By contrast the 87 team had one reliever with a sub 4 ERA (and that was 3.99). If the stats above hold true through the next 2 weeks that is 9 relievers with sub 4.00 ERA plus Graterol. Further contrast is Gibson and Perez with ERA's above 4.75 and trending higher. If you don't work bullpen games into the rotation you are wasting bullets on the bench and biting your nose to spite your face.
  5. Dantes929
    I like Gibson but unless they can show some really good stuff in their last two starts I think you gotta keep Gibson and Perez off the roster. Berrios and Odorizzi backed up by May Duffey, Romo and Rogers. Smeltzer, Dubnak, Graterol, Littell, Stashak and Thorpe for depth and a bullpen game or two or 3. I like the idea of putting a bullpen game against the other team's ace, especially the way our pen has been pitching but do the Yankees even have an ace? If we threw Smeltzer, Dobnak, Littell Stashak and Graterol the only one that has a higher ERA than any of the Yankee starters is Graterol. I just think the pen has a higher upside than any starter after our top 2. Since they would all be looking at just a couple innings you could throw bullpen in game 1, Berrios in game 2, day off, bullpen in game 3, Odorizzi in game 4, day off and bullpen in game 5. I know I shouldn't get carried away with how our bullpen did last weekend but I just think it is a better option than Gibson or Perez who probably don't last that long anyway. I like Odorizzi a little better than Berrios so the other option is Odorizzi in game one, bullpen, Berrios, bullpen and then Odorizzi in game 5. Last thing we should do is follow traditional formula when we don't have the traditional strengths. Of course 2 weeks is a long time and performances will change our view but as it stands that is the way I would do it. Who would have thought that bullpen games could be viewed as a really good thing just a month ago but guys have really stepped up.
  6. Dantes929
    Not sure what is depressing about Romo giving up a homerun. An error and a walk before the home run would have been depressing. Everyone gives up runs. Everyone. Twins did a nice job of hanging in there to get a big win.
  7. Dantes929
    Unless he blows up in the next two weeks I don't know how you can keep Littell off the postseason roster. Gave up 8 runs in two appearances in May. Since then he has been absolutely lights out in his last 22 appearances. I could imagine a playoff roster without Gibson or Perez.
  8. Dantes929
    With Rogers, Graterol, Littell, May, Duffey, Romo, Smeltzer, Dobnak and Stashak all throwing well it would seem in our best interests to have a bullpen for one spot and a short leash on Perez and Gibson going forward. Have we ever had a bullpen this deep? I know some of these guys are unproven but I have no qualms about any of these guys getting innings. I have no idea how Romo does it with an 84 mph fastball and 90% sliders. I feel a little bad for Romero because it seems some bad luck haunts him in the form of fluke singles, errors, etc. but it seems like he always compounds the bad breaks with a walk or two and wild pitches so he still owns it. Calling them bullpen games seems a little disingenuous since Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe can all go 4 or 5 innings.
  9. Dantes929
    I wouldn't have suggested Berrios except he was the expected starter and we had a two run advantage with 4 to go. Seems like a good bet though of course could have gone all wrong. We have a rotation of sorts. Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, Perez and Dobnak/Thorpe/Smelzer. I would not mind seeing the last three listed replace Perez and Gibson if they don't do well in their next return. I'm not down on either necessarily but am concerned about Gibson's health and Perez seems to be at replacement level. Get to the playoffs first. Then Berrios becomes our poor man's 87 Viola, Odorizzi becomes our 87 rich man's Blyleven and take your pick for 87 Straker. Bullpen was probably already the equal of the 87 pen before Romo and the emergence of Duffey, May, Littel and Graterol. Fun times ahead hopefully.
  10. Dantes929
    Of course there is some hindsight here but maybe Berrios would have been a good guy to pitch the 6th through the 9th. A two run lead and just 4 innings to get through. A win today against our closest rivals would have been worth more than a win Monday.
  11. Dantes929
    I would tend to rank it Kepler, Rogers, Cruz, Polanco but come on. With the article and all the comments I don't see Odorizzi's name once? Better ERA, W-L, FIP, ERA+ than Berrios. Innings per start is his only flaw. Huge 7 innings shutout against Verlander and the Astros. Huge win against Cleveland for our only win in the last series with them. Twins won 8 of his last 9 starts at a time when Berrios was struggling, Gibson was sick, Perez was inconsistent and Pineda was being suspended. I think I put him at #5 with an inclination to put him higher still.
  12. Dantes929
    Home field, trending, starting pitching, injuries. Sweeps were the two least likely occurrences but the same reasons the Indians were favored to take two of three would give them the sweep edge as well. Given that many here would have been happy to win one of three and a minority but not super small thought being swept was likely I am fairly confident in my odds. Now Twins taking 2 of 3 is just slightly better odds than us sweeping them. Good place to be.
  13. Dantes929
    91-57. That is fantastic. Haven't we been through enough highs and lows to know that a week to 10 day stretch can change everything? We are sitting really, really good but still have to take care of business.
  14. Dantes929
    But did they ignore the pen? Everyone seems to be onn board that the pen right now is good and everyone except Romo was in the organizaton to start the season.
  15. Dantes929
    Not sure I understand this. Does he think Polanco is still on steroids or that the steroids he took two years ago are still the difference in hitting home runs now?
  16. Dantes929
    Great win. That took care of the 3rd most likely result which was getting swept. It also flips the likelihood of who wins 2 of 3 since two games between good teams is generally a split. Also keeps what was the least likely result which was a sweep of the Indians in play. Great job bullpen including Smelzer.
  17. Dantes929
    The most likely result is Cleveland taking 2 of 3. Next most likely is Twins taking 2 of 3. 3rd most likely is Indians taking 3 and 4th most likely is Twins taking 3. I will not show my work. It is all about feel. Fangraphs and BR say Twins are 98% to make the playoffs. Proper odds on that would be a payoff of 50-1 if the Twins do not make the playoffs. I agree that the true odds are between 60-80% that they make the playoffs so if offered the chance I would bet $100 at a 50-1 (98%) payoff that the Twins do not make the playoffs. I would not bet $100 for 1.5 payout (60%) but would consider it at 5-1 payout (80%).
  18. Dantes929
    When we were 11 games up I said wait a week to 10 days and the picture might look a lot different. When we were down .5 games I said wait a week to 10 days and the picture might look a lot different. If we are up .5 games and bumming on Monday wait a week to 10 days and the picture might look a lot different. 162 games is a roller coaster with heavy optimism or heavy pessimism carrying the day. For some that rollercoaster is experienced in a 1 game window rather than a week to 10 days.
  19. Dantes929
    i would prefer to win outright but a game 163 with loser going to wild card would be a lot of fun also. Fangraphs has us at 94% chance to win the division. Any one else feel like the real odds are a little more than half that? A win tonight would make us all happy.
  20. Dantes929
    They are smarter than you think. Lamarre has an .809 OPS when playing for Chicago. Since we play the Whtie Sox next week this was just a preemptive move to make sure they don't reacquire him to play against us. OK, I guess that explains why they acquired him but not why they are playing him rather than calling Kiriloff up.
  21. Dantes929
    Reminds me of those game graphs showing odds of winning. You see a team with a huge percentage to win with a 2 run lead but then a 3 run homer turns it on its head. Twins playoffs chances were something like 8% a few years ago but a good stretch of winning can change everything and they got in fairly comfortably. Of course odds are odds for a reason but thats all they are. I have said all season I will be comfortable only when we are up X games with X-1 games to play. That is still true but in my mind this is still going according to script from about a month ago. I thought it would be close in mid September and then the strength of schedule would likely have the Twins prevail in the last 13 games. The only real surprise to me is that we are still ahead 4 games right now. I thought it would be closer to even but to counteract that good result I thought we would be much healthier. . Championships aren't supposed to be easy.
  22. Dantes929
    I think Berrios threw really well but also think he might be helped by the fact that the Nats never faced him. That curve ball is really nasty and I think takes getting a little used to. Its knee buckling but maybe a little too east to west and if teams see it enough get better at laying off it. Along those lines I thought Berrios really got hosed on a couple important pitches. If the ball ends up on the low outside corner and broke a foot down and across how can that not be a strike? I am guessing Berrios would benefit by roboump more than anyone.
  23. Dantes929
    I thought immediately of Kubel also but the counter to that is Arraez who has thrived. Buxton is now officially out so I would want a possible impact guy like Kiriloff. Rosario, Kepler and Cave but I would be happy with Kiriloff backing them up.
  24. Dantes929
    Said most fans in 87. Said most fans of every wild card before their team advanced. Of course you might be right. Twins aren't going to be favored but I wouldn't even watch if I thought most of the actual players felt like you do. Being a fan of a team that advances despite the odds is so much more satisfying than being a fan of a team that advances because of being a heavy favorite. Of course the underdog advances less often. That;s what makes it sweeter.
  25. Dantes929
    This is a great article and mostly reflects my thoughts. I am happy the Twins are up 5.5 games in September. I thought going into the last 10 games the two teams would be very close and the advantage the Twins had in schedule in that time would carry the day. This is fun people. Division titles aren't supposed to be easy. All I asked of the season was for September games to be important and they certainly are. The fun is in the journey. Playoffs are a crap shoot. If the Twins make the playoffs they most likely will play the Yankees and the most likely result is that we lose 3-2. Next most likely is that we win 3-2. Third most likely is that we lose 3-1. Fourth most likely is that we win 3-1. You get the drift. If following a team that competes, and by competes, I mean maybe wins and maybe loses upsets you because when losing you find it unacceptable then maybe stop and reflect whether you would be better suited for cheering on the Globetrotters against the Generals. As far as being built for the regular season vs playoffs, there is maybe some validity but mostly it is a crapshoot where players either step up or they don't and either things fall your way or they don't. Kirby wasn't likely to be a playoff hero and the Twins weren't likely to succeed in the playoffs when they won it all but they battled and things went their way. What about the Yankees makes you think they are built for success in the playoffs but we are not? Their best starter has an ERA of 3.96. Everyone else in their rotation has an ERA over 4.2. Believe it or not, even without Pineda we would have a starting pitching statistical advantage over the Yankees.
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