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Dantes929

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  1. Dantes929
    In high school in a single elimination region game we had a an ace and several other good pitchers. We probably had a 50/50 chance against the first team if we didn't use our ace but less than 50/50 against the 2nd team if we didn't use our ace. Our odds were good against either team with our ace. Our coach did not use our ace in the first game, we won that one, and then the 2nd game 1-0 and went on to win the state championship and everyone called the coach a genius. Another season we had the exact same situation with the same ace and the coach made the same decision. We lost that first game and our playoffs were done and our ace was never used. The coach was 2nd guessed by nearly everyone. The exact same situation and the exact same decisions but with different outcomes and in one the coach is a genius and the other he is an idiot. In this case, in game one, yes, Berrios could have maybe gone another inning but he was obviously struggling with the command of his signature pitch. Take a look at Littell's game log this season and you will see he was pretty much lights out all year long. It should have gone Littell, Duffey, May, Romo and Rogers to shut out the game much like it happened many times this season. Instead Littell, who walked 2 guys per 9, walks the first guy, throws a wild pitch, and then beans a guy. Now Duffey comes in earlier than desired and gives up those two runs. It wasn't the plan that was flawed it was the performance by the players. Aaraez should have had the pop up, Cron should have caught the double play relay and the Twins would have been in position to use the relievers in order. Its on the players. They didn't make the plays and the Yankees did. Its not that our players couldn't make the plays or that they couldn't make contact with no outs and bases loaded. Its that they didn't. Its baseball.
  2. Dantes929
    After his first game back in May Littell has been fantastic all year long. I had no problem bringing him in. Down 7-4 I would question Gibson coming in but once it went to 10-4 he should have just left him in to finish the game and save Graterol. That is really my only complaint on game management. Yankees brought in all their guys. I hope it comes back to haunt them tonight.. Berrios was not going to last much longer with just his fastball. I don''t know that the Yankees pitching was so much better aside from Littell not having anything Their at bats were better and their defense was better. We showed great patience until the count was 3-2 and then swung at anything. Yankees took walks. They made diving catches. Aside from Sano;'s great play in the 1st we didn't make the plays. The loss will just make winning the series that much sweeter. If we lose tonight it will just make winning the series that much sweeter.
  3. Dantes929
    Odorizzii beating Verlander 1-0 and the Dobnak starts stick out to me.
  4. Dantes929
    I would give the nod to Odorizzi. Whichever does not start game 1 should start game 3. If they just give us 5 innings fine. There is a reason we are carrying at least 9 relievers. May throw the 6th. If he does well have him throw the 7th if not then bring in Duffey for 2 and Rogers for one. Dobnak and 3 or 4 other relievers for game 2. Since Berrios is the only likely one to go more than 5 innings it would probably be a good idea to let the relievers go more than 1 inning if they throw well. Most of them have built up to that anyway
  5. Dantes929
    I think the best odds before the series starts is that the Yankees win 3-2. Next most likely result is the Twins win 3-2. Third most likely is the Yankees win 3-1. 4th most likely is the Twins win 3-1. 5th most likely is a Yankees sweep. 6th most likely is Twins sweep. Like you say, wind, nerves, bounces, missed calls (even balls and strikes), heroics and failures all come into play and make mockery of predictions but the Yankees are still slight favorites to win the first game. If the Twins win Friday they eliminate the least favorable result (Yankees sweep) and turn all the other odds around., but before the series starts the Yankees are favored no matter how much spin you want to put on it. If you want silver lining I would say the Twins have a better chance against the Yankees than against the Astros and they have a better chance against the Yankees this year than the Twins had against the Tigers in 87.
  6. Dantes929
    i was down on Schoop in mid season because he was put in key situations a lot and was not coming through. Then he started coming through in spots for a while and I forgot about it. Arraez is simply the better player but that doesn't make Schoop bad.
  7. Dantes929
    I miss speed playing a role on our team and the diminished role it has in general. Buxton is my favorite player and my favorite plays were him bunting, stealing, taking extra bases and disrupting.
  8. Dantes929
    How big was that double header win against Cleveland. Sweeping them instead of being swept made that the biggest day of the season. You want hope for the playoffs? Our best day of the season where we won both ends of a double header against one of the hottest teams of the 2nd half and still a playoff candidate were bullpen games. Bullpen games where Dobnak, our hottest pitcher this month, didn't even throw.
  9. Dantes929
    Stashak and Graterol should be locks in my opinion. I would lean toward Smeltzer and Thorpe but would be ok with Smeltzer and Gibson. I guess one of the roles for Gibson would in a long extra inning game in the NL park in the WS as a pinch hitter.
  10. Dantes929
    Are you kidding. 2-1 1.59 ERA That's pre injury Liriano numbers. Scott Diamond was awesome that year. His curveball was Blylevenesque that year. Too bad he got arm trouble but just goes to show you how awesome Blyleven was to have that Diamond Season 20 some times. A full season in the minors and now 28 innings in the majors is feeling less and less like a fluke. If it is at least the Yankees haven't seen him yet. At the very least we will have definitive beyond all reason proof of the effect of being married if he gets shelled his next appearance.. Just kidding. What a month he is having!
  11. Dantes929
    Hate to nitpick (not really) but you used territorian incorrectly. Territorian according to Merriam Webster (she sounds hot) is an inhabitant of the Northern Territory of Australia. I guess on 2nd thought Twins Territorians could be Twins fans that live in the Norther Territory of Australia that have been haunted by the Yankees. Anyone? Anyone?
  12. Dantes929
    Yes, first things first. I din't watch the Super Bowl to see if Brady can beat Foles and the Eagles. I know they can. I watched it to see if Foles and the Eagles could beat the Patriots. Takes very little imagination on my part to think Odorizzi can pitch well against the Yankees or Astros. I also kind of like the bullpen strategy. Might blow up in our faces or it might be the perfect way to beat them. I think Houston is the best team. Yankees are the better team but not by a really big margin so odds would favor that matchup. Yes, we need healthy guys. We just saw a 4.6 ERA guy us out for 6 innings. Not the first time its happened either. We have guys capable of that.
  13. Dantes929
    I agree with you except for the odds on to sweep. They may sweep us or we may sweep them but that is going to be the two least likely results. Vegas odds would never have a near 100 win team be most likely to be swept.. Again, I am pulling this out of thin air but the most likely result would be us losing 3-2. I am guessing the next two possibilities of us winning 3-2 or losing 3-1 would be very close.. Us winning 3-1 would probably be a small margin over them sweeping us and then lastly us sweeping them.
  14. Dantes929
    They have been a bit lucky but Lynn and Dyson were actually two very good moves that were unlucky. Dyson was going to immediately be one of our top relievers but for the injury. Lynn was 11-8 with a 3.43 ERA the year before he got here and has a 15-11 and 3.75 ERA right now with the Rangers. If by mistake you mean they should have kept him then yeah, he would look pretty good as our 3rd starter right now.
  15. Dantes929
    Does gibson have time to prove he should be on the post season roster? Indians up by 11. Good news is its just the 6th innings so they have time for a come back.
  16. Dantes929
    I think you missed my point while also kind of making it. If Dobnak had been brought up earlier he might not have been ready or he might have faced the wrong team at the wrong time and failed. As you say the Twins might have then written him off and moved on and that might well have been the absolute wrong thing to do.. its not just about opportunity, its about timing. As it stands, they brought him up later, he has done great to the point many of us here not only think he should make the roster but that he should start game 2. I know we don't have 11 guys that have sustainable sub 3.7 ERA's on this team but that is who they have been so far and I prefer they go in there with some confidence and hope the glue holds for another few weeks. I'm not saying your points aren't valid. In fact, I think they are. However, its baseball and many times the right moves fail and many times the wrong moves work out. Given that Pineda is out I feel about as good about this pitching staff as I have all year. If Smeltzer, Dobnak, Sashak, Littell had been given more chance earlier and failed I would not be feeling so good about needing Gibson, Perez, Harper and Hildenberger just because we have nothing else.
  17. Dantes929
    Are you sure about Dobnak? His ERA in AAA was 2.15 in AAA and 2.07 in all levels. in 150 innings.
  18. Dantes929
    My main point about injuries was in general you can''t prepare to replace your best pitcher. No matter how good your fringe, with only occasional exceptions you are losing your best guy and replacing him with a guy that is theoretically worse than your worst current guy. This could be one of those times. Baseball is all about what ifs and alternate realities. Lets reverse your hypothetical. What if Dobnak was treated like Arraez. Maybe he comes up and starts in June, has a couple off starts and gets shelled, is labeled as a AAAA pitcher and we never hear from him again. In other words maybe he pitches us to the WS but if he had been brought up earlier we lose in the 1st round or maybe don't make the playoffs in the first place. I am ok with you thinking we should have picked up another starter or given some of the young guys a chance earlier. The ironical thing is the trade deadline was 90% about improving the pen and abouot 10% improving the rotation. We ended up getting two great pieces for the pen but it was only the 2nd rated pickup that worked out and we are now considered to have a good and deep bullpen. The rotation was considered adequate and now we are hoping Berrios is good again and are talking about two spots in the rotation for bullpen games. BTW my vote for postseason as it stands today (could change after 6 more games) is we add at least 5 more pitchers to your list and they should be Graterol, Smeltzer, Dobnak, Stashak and Thorpe. The only questionable spot would be maybe Perez for Thorpe.
  19. Dantes929
    I know I was cherry picking but I did lead with Verlander and Kershaw are the two I would feel most secure about and then just pointed out that they are fallible as well. Kind of trying to illustrate that the quality decreases from that point so the idea of being comfortable with a pitcher in the playoffs is a bit mercurial. I have faith that Berrios and Odorizzi as well as much of the bullpen are capable of pitching well. Comfortable that they WILL pitch well is another story. Thats what makes the playoffs fun. We all think we were comfortable with Morris and Viola in hindsight. The reality is there were a lot of tense moments. I mentioned in another post that Dobnak appears to hit too much of the plate too many times but I'm not expecting perfection. I like how he battles. Same with Odorizzi. I expect the Yankees to score runs. Its what they do. Look at their rotation though and there is not a whole lot to suggest that we wouldn't score runs also. We have a winning record against Houston this year but they are the team I feel our odds are quite a bit lower against. Odds aren't reality though. Anything can happen. Maybe Cleveland plays Houston and beats them. We're not going to be favored no matter what but if we are in the playoffs we have a chance.
  20. Dantes929
    The two pitchers I would feel most secure with are Verlander and Kershaw. Combined they are 1-6 in World Series games with a 5.5 ERA. Nick Blackburn gave up 1 run in game 163 and 1 run in the playoffs against the Yankees. Of course it is all SSS and you want the best pitcher out there. I'm sure we all thought Viola, Morris and Tapani would throw well but they were all often one pitch away from disaster. Comes down to who do you think has the best chance to throw a quality game and given that Gibson hasn't done it once since August 3rd and Perez's success rate has been well under 50% and Dobnak has been great his last two starts, at this point anyway it is a no brainer. We really probably shouldn't even call it a bullpen game. Dobnak has gone 5 innings or more both times. He should simply be our starter. The tone of your post later was that the Twins were somewhat negligent in not preparing better for this. That everyone has injuries and no one should be surprised by it. That;s true but can you really prepare for it? If Viola goes down in 1987 who steps up? If Morris and Tapani go down in 91 what was plan B? In some cases for various reasons plan B can be as good or better than plan A but that is not the norm. I can easily imagine Berrios, Odorizzi and Dobnak throwing well enough to give us a chance. Unless they blow up in their next starts I feel about as secure in that as I can be.
  21. Dantes929
    Well, not Viola anyway. Blyleven was 15-12 with a 4.01 ERA. In our favor we have 9 relievers with ERA's well below 4 and 4 wit ERA's well below 3. In 1987 Viola and Berenguer were the only pitchers on the entire team with ERA below 4 and Senior Smoke was at 3.94. So the Twins have 9 guys in the pen with better ERA's than the best guy in the pen in 87 plus Graterol. Even more Reardon was the only other guy with an ERA below 4.5 at 4.48.
  22. Dantes929
    I've been promoting this idea for a while. The only question is if it goes 5 games do you want Berrios or Odorizzi going game 1 and 5. Bullpen games do not scare me. They have actually constituted our best games lately. I consider them an equivalent of a 3.00 ERA pitcher going 9 innings. Why would you want Perez or Gibson with their 6 ERA's for 5 innings when you can have 5 pitchers with 3.6 ERA or better (except for Graterol) going 2 innings each. We have never had a bullpen like this that can arguably go 9 deep. Smeltzer is not batting practice by the way. He hits corners. While I like the stuff and fearlessness of Dobnak it does appear that a lot of his pitches touch the heart of the plate.
  23. Dantes929
    Yes but it gets back to my other point. If he is in the pen I want him throwing 99 or more. If he is in the rotation I would rather him settle in at 96-98 with more focus on other pitches and command. Who knows the right path? He might have arm issues in one case but not the other or arm issues regardless or no arm issues regardless. Is 70 appearances as a reliever better than 30 as a starter? Maybe, maybe not.
  24. Dantes929
    Everything you say makes sense especially the part about not knowing how pushing human boundaries affects health. I think it is unknowable in terms of policy. One size doesn't fit all. I hear Graterol hits 101 mph and I cringe a little bit. The potential for that one throw to do damage feels like the equivalent of 10 extra innings over the course of the year throwing 97 mph. Again, no science to refute or agree.
  25. Dantes929
    I haven't looked lately but a couple years ago I looked pretty hard as well. I have no science backing up my position either. Just seems that guys are just as likely if not more so to blow out their arms in ST as they are in inning 190. The intuitive sense to me is to warm up properly and focus on form and build up arm strength gradually at the beginning of the year. Its also to shut down guys or skip rotations not based on innings but based on feedback. If a guy appears to have some dead issues or some strain then ease up the burden and evaluate. Careful monitoring especially of young guys just makes more sense to me than policy. If Bert Blyleven came up today they would say lets start him off with 110 innings and then build him up to 200 innings over the next 4 years. So 110 instead of the 218 innings he actually pitched at age 19, 135 instead of the 278 he actually pitched at age 20, 170 instead of the 287 he actually pitched at age 21, and 190 instead of the actual 325 he pitched at age 22. Yes, I'm cherry picking but guys used to throw a lot more innings and SEEMED to have fewer arm complications. The guys having arm problems now seem to have their arm problems spread out pretty evenly. Some in ST, some in the 1st month, some in the 2nd month, etc. but of course when it happens at inning 140 someone can say "see, told you so. He should have been shut down after 130". You can argue that guys throw harder now but the counter to that is first yeah, so injuries are going to be unavoidable, period. Or you can say "Hey Brusdar, instead of us trying to build up your innings of throwing 102, mph why don't we just have you settle in at 97 mph and build innings from there."
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