Dantes929

Just looking at it statistically if our offense gives us over 5.5 (still a big if) runs per game and if our bullpen actually performs to the optimistic level many have for it then the rotation as a group only needs to average a 4.5 ERA. to win over 90 with a good shot at the playoffs. I don't stress about the playoffs. Fact is Santana was plenty good enough to win a couple years ago but compounded by a horrible ball call on Gregorius just pitched really bad. Last year the least reason for the Twins playoff failure was the rotation as the offense scored very little, the defense gave up several and the bullpen gave up many. I admit I am more a journey than a destination guy. Playoffs are for drama and for getting hot. The Nationals weren't considered to have much of a chance. They were lucky and then good and then hot.

We have two all star starting pitchers. Why are they not considered impact guys? Both are plenty capable of throwing really good games. I don't love the delay to to get to Hill and Pineda but have no problem giving innings to the young guys. I swear if some on here were running things Blyleven, Viola, Santana, Liriano, Radke, Berrios etc. would never have made the rotation because at one time they were untested young guys. Its not like earlier this decade where guys that didn't really do well in the minors were promoted because there was just no one else. Dobnak and Smeltzer in particular have earned their shot.

Here's a scouting report from two years ago which shows equal grades for a slider and changeup so it is certainly there if only for show. I am not convinced two pitches can't succeed anyway but it looks like he has them. If you look at every level he has pitched there is a direct correlation between walks and ERA. Almost one for one. Walks often reflect lack of control within the zone also. Nothing new here. Tons of pitchers have found control at this stage and become successful. Tons never did find it. Its up to him. Sometimes its confidence and sometimes its just a slight adjustment of something or other. If ever he has a good stretch of 2 or fewer walks/9 that is when I would promote him.

If Cal Ripken had broken a couple toes on a foul ball and then sprained an ankle or broken a leg on a double play they would have called him injury prone. The only question is:. Is he healthy right now?

If he was concussionless I am guessing he would have gotten into the HOF. He was on his way to his 2nd MVP when it happened and who knows what else he could have done. Very fun watching him and Mauer over the years.

I think we also forget how bad replacement level is. If we score 939 runs like we did last year and had a team full of Martin Perez we would give up 829 runs which would still give us a 90 win season. Kind of hard to imagine but those are the numbers. What off season WAR doesn't contemplate is improvement within and giving new guys a shot. Without Donaldson maybe we go with Kiriloff and I don't think his WAR would be neutral.

Wow! I mean thanks for pointing out the studies. I have read studies before and the conclusions have always been non conclusive. I read as much as I could follow of these two but come on. The first study is a study of 2 starters and 5 relievers for a college team and how spring and fall sessions differed.. I really hope the Twins don't rely on your researched? study. The results of the study as far as I can see the more a pitcher throws the more he has soreness? Great study. The 2nd study basically says that X number of pitchers are gong to get hurt in a season, as far as I could tell doesn't really relate to Graterol and says Chapman was more likely to have arm problems than Dickey. Did you really come out of reading those thinking there was factual evidence as it relates to Graterol?

In my opinion he is just as likely to blow out his arm throwing 100mph out of the pen. They can tell themselves they are protecting his arm and it might be the absolute best thing they can do or the absolute worst and anywhere in between. Is throwing 180 innings in 30 starts with a fastball at 96 better or worse than throwing 60 times out of the pen at 101? No way of knowing. Not surprising that throwing over 100 as a starter 5 innings at a time has caused some strain but no real science to back up that either. I was hoping he would start right out of the gate but he should be a significant asset out of the pen. Now we are talking Berrios, Odo, Bailey, Dobnak and Thorpe/Shmeltzer?

First of all I take a bit of issue with the Rondell White signing. It was a great signing at the time. He had a good season the prior year and as USchief used to point out our other option was Jason Tyner at DH. Plenty of upside but what made it bad was White simply had an awful year. So much of what makes great signings is hindsight but it is all up to the player. Morris and Cruz had great years which equals great acquisitions but if they have lousy years then "why do we keep signing washed up veterans?". Rondell White, Tommy Herr, Lance Lynn, Sam Dyson among many others were very good signings. They just turned out poorly for the Twins. As far as Donaldson goes there was talk of him holding out for 110 mil, rumors of him being offered around 100 mil and we end up signing him for 92 mil. Wheeler has never been an all star or had any spectacular years so 100 mil seemed like a bit of overpay but the talk is that is what would sign him. Rumor had it that the Twins offered him that and he ends up signing for 118 mil. Maybe we could have signed him for 130 mil. Is that what we should have offered? How would we know what it takes? Donaldson was asking for 110 mil and there were those here that said we should do the overpay. We ended up giving him 18 mil less than what he asked for and now we are players? Nothing makes sense.

i was a little excited to see Kiriloff at 1st base this year. Now wondering where he can come in or is he held back another year when Cruz is gone?

No mention of Dobnak. All he did was throw 160 innings of sub 2.00 ERA in 2019 over 163 innings between minors and majors.

No guarantees but that is true of everyone new and old alike. Another nice indicator is that he is only 22 but has hit well over .300 at every level over a 6 year career.

"As you can see, most of these players posted career bests in their age-26 season, proving our aging curve discussed above to be an accurate depiction of a pitcher’s career.". I like the article and the stats but I kind of laughed at this. Most of the THREE pitchers sampled PROVED? As pointed out above you left out Cole and also Ryu. Without researching much I am guessing that both those pitchers would have contradicted the thesis. So if included you could say the majority of these 5 players prove the aging curve is inaccurate but that would be just as wrong. Samples of 3 or 5 prove nothing even if they were random. Also , I don't know all the parameters of the graph but I am guessing it is an average of all starting pitchers over a certain period. It is possible to arrive at an average of a group without actually having any one individual having that trajectory. The graph is interesting, relevant and maybe indicative. Personally, I am not all that concerned with whether Berrios is considered an ace or not. Of course it would be nice if he threw up those kinds of numbers but history is littered with the Zito's beating the Santana's of the world in the playoffs. I just want guys capable of throwing gems. Berrios was, is and hopefully continues to be capable.

He's 23 but missed 2 years so I still have high hopes for him. Your #1 point is everything, or at least a lot of things. Pineda walked 1.7 per 9. Berrios was at 2.3. Odorizzi was a little bit of an outfiler but 3 of his best 4 seasons have been when his walk rate was 2.6 or less. Still, our 3 best pitchers had the 3 best walk rates. Walks translate into runs. Walks also indicate you probably have some issues with control inside the zone as well. Get walks down around 2 per 9 and he will be great. If he can't, he won't.

Puckett bunted for hits a lot in the 80's and 90/s . Its a great slump buster. Carew would do just fine in 2020.. For Buxton a bunt single is pretty much the equivalent of a double. There's a place for it and I wish more of the Twins did it. Pitchers and defenses hate it.

Say what you will about Perez. He gave us a very good April and May which helped us get off to a great start and provide some cushion for the later months. I have wanted the 5th spot to go internally to Dobnak and Graterol all along so if Bailey can give us a couple good months early while Pineda is on the shelf and then we get Hill and Pineda we should be in decent shape. Things rarely go according to plan. Maybe Dobnak and Graterol compete for ROY, Bailey and HIll have great seasons and Berrios and Odo tank. For now I am happy we got a little depth.

Like when they say such and such all star is "a great player but even a better human being." What are the odds one of the 100 best baseball players in the world is also one of the 100 best human beings? Nope, Nope, Nope. Not happening.

Not everyone has a struggling period but some certainly do. He dominated in the minors before his call up. I'm not sure he has anything more to prove there. I hate this talk of innings limits. This article kind of says it all and you really don't have to read past the headlines. It has never made any sense to me that you work up a guy to the point where he can throw 100 pitches and then have him do it for 20 starts at 6 innings a piece and then shut him down for 6 months before he does it again and this time he can go 24 starts. I'm ok with the theory if there was any proof at all that it works but there isn't. I have no evidence but it sure seems like there are as many or more guys that get hurt in ST or the first month of the season as there are in innings 180-220. How about just a little common sense. 1. Build up to 100 pitches a little more gradually. 2. Have pitchers active between innings like Gibson rather than sitting there motionless for 10-15 minutes. 3. Stop obsessing about 100 mph and above. Verlander averaged 94-95. Cole 96-97 and Graterol 99. Common sense says dialing in 95-97 is more sustainable and safer than 99-101. 4. Forget innings limits and spend more time monitoring and stressing that the pitcher be honest about any issues before they become problems. 5. If strain or dead arm become issues maybe skip a start and continue to monitor.

I would prefer 10 seasons of 10% chance of winning it all to two seasons of 50% chance of winning it all. I know it doesn't work that way wither but you get the idea. If we signed Wheeler, Strasburg, Cole and Ryu for two years I think I would lose interest. If we had drafted and retained them all I would probably feel differently.

That would be one of the best off seasons ever. If we get Donaldson I am guessing Kuechel rather than Ryu since the big knock on Kuechel was he doesn't fit with our poor infield defense so shoring up the defense makes it a better fit and if you are spending that much on JD then probably not spending that much on Ryu. Yes, to bullpen arm. Currently we are Rogers, May, Duffey, Romo, Littel and probably Stashak. Possibly Graterol. Any idea what it would take to get Gray? I still like the idea of internal (Dobnak) for one starting pitching spot so if we got any one of those 3 starting pitchers along with Donaldson that would exceed my expectations.

I would love to have Ryu so that we can fill two spots for the first month with our internal guys. I'm not just ok with one of the above guys filling a spot, I actually want it. Spring training isn't where you should be making decisions who will be on the Opening Day roster though there is some wiggle room for guys that come in and do great or for those that appear to have sit on the couch all winter, though I really don't see that happening with these guys. To me, Dobnak and Graterol have earned a spot based on having really, really good seasons in the minor s last year. Does Graterol really have stuff he needs to work on or is he just going to go down to the minors and dominate for 5 innings at a time to no purpose. If people are really afraid of him getting injured then get him in the majors as soon as possible to avoid wasting bullets. At some point internal options such as Radke, Mays. Lohse, Milton, Santana, Liriano, Garza, Slowey, Blackburn, and Baker were given chances and became average or better major league pitchers. Gibson and Berrios are the anomalies because they are the only two starters developed by the Twins this decade. However, that stretch should also be considered an anomaly because a team should be able to produce much better than that on average. I have faith that Dobnak and Graterol can be those guys. A little less faith in Thorpe being ready and a little less still in Smeltzer. I would really like to get Ryu because I also don't have a whole lot of faith in any of the other pitchers available to be better than oour internal options.

Its not just a high leg kick. Its a really long stride. Combine that with where his hands are it really does look like a long swing. With a long swing I can also imagine you have to commit earlier which gives you a little less time with recognize pitches. It all makes sense. Keep the leg kick but shorten the stride might make the swing quicker. I would want him to work on good consistent contact rather than worrying about power at this point. Kirby was a good batting average guy before he became a power hitter. I would try to follow that path. I know this won't be popular with many on here but I also would like him to add bunting for hits down the 3rd base line. Why not add that skill set to his arsenal now.

Senior Smoke had a 3.99 ERA and Reardon had a 4.5 ERA. Hardly shut down relievers Viola was coming off a 4.5 ERA year in 86 and 4.09 in 85. My point was no way before the year began were you saying Viola was an ace. No way before the season began were you saying 36 year old Morris was going to throw one of the greatest WS games ever. You would be saying "Boy,, another washed up veteran. Aren't they ever going to try to win?" You were probably even saying "Cheap Twins trading a Cy Young winner because they don't want to pay to keep him from being a free agent". If the Twins win the WS next year in some future year you will be talking about what great moves the Twins made to sign Cruz, resign Odorizzi and Pineda and rely on young Graterol to have a big year.

I could probably give you thousands of examples of anecdotal evidence of a team losing a game or series and then putting out the same team the next time and having different results. Twins scored 7 runs in 3 games in the playoffs so better get a whole different lineup because if you don't they will only score 7 runs next year? They had bases loaded and no outs and didn't score so next year they won't get a big hit either? The Nationals were a two out 3 run single from being eliminated in the wild card game. If they had I am sure the fans would have said " We haven't advanced past the first round of the playoffs in 49 years. This team just wasn't capable of doing any better". But because they did have that big play we know better. Its baseball. With the same team guys will improve or get worse. The only guy I really wanted in free agency is Ryu. My biggest fear, and it was a distinct possibility is that we would also lose Pineda and Odorizzi. 91 Twins didn't go from worst to first by signing an aging pitcher coming off two mediocre years and an untested rookie at 2nd base. They went from worst to first because those guys had a great year and everyone that played on the last place team simply played better. I'll hang my hat on a team that won over a 100 games last year. They might be better, they might be worse but they are unlikely to be the same.

Finally someone that saw what I saw. Fans were saying that off season he needed to develop another pitch or the league would catch up to him. No!!! he was already changing speeds and angles so much it was like he had 20 different pitches. I suspect that working on that 3rd pitch so much the next year caused him to lose a little bite and command of his curve ball and just as importantly he stopped hitting corners with his fast ball. Of course then fans said "See, told you he couldn't last as a starter with just two pitches!" ignoring the fact that those two pitches just weren't as good as the previous year. Now Dobnak might be the same way but he wasn't just great in his 28 major league innings. He was great in the 135 innings he pitched in the minors. He might just be a flash in the pan but I'm not going to just assume so. Anyone can have a clunker and in Yankees stadium to boot. At any rate, I think he's earned the shot.