Dantes929

Sorry. #1 draft pick before he matured and became dominant and I might add coming off a decent season in 2015 and so so season in 2016 with a losing record and a NL WHIP worse than Berrios, Odo, and Pineda this year. That is kind of the definition of diamond in the rough. Diamond being the #1 pick. Rough being someone according to one of the writers here that could have been obtained by after the 2017 by Nick Gordon and a lesser prospect.

Yeah, the actual quote ini the MVP article was "Eddie Rosario, last year's Twins Daily MVP recipient, received only one sixth-place vote, despite putting up 32 home runs and 109 RBIs. The misleading nature of his raw totals didn't fool our panel" Maybe not hate but totally dismissive of his contributions. I defended him there and will add here that he has an OPS in the playoffs of 1.103. That wasn't powered solely with 1 meaningless home run.

I don't know. Cole was the diamond in the rough less than two years ago. I'd like to find the next one. There are probably a few.

Did I miss something? Have we signed Odorizzi and Pineda already? If Wheeler and Buamgartner aren't better than Berrios then they are not better than Odorizzi and proebably not better than Pineda. Get Odorizzi and Pineda signed, then get one of those other guys and roll with Graterol or Dobnak. Then get one good reliever. I ask for this with knowledge that the likelihood is they will do less. Asking for 2 or three aces every year ignores the history of what the team has done, ignores the fact that there just aren't that many top tier pitchers and ignores the fact that there are 29 other teams that also want quality pitchers. My fear is that there are a couple dozen GM's that are targeting the same guys mentioned on this board including Odorizzi and Pineda.

I think I had Kepler as my number one a few weeks ago and also said there should be a little more love for Odorizzi. I am curious about the "misleading nature of his raw totals didn't fool our panel" comment about Rosario. I probably don't have him real high either but more because of the performance of the others rather than his performance. No matter how you cut it 109 RBI is a lot. His defense wasn't great but he still had the best and most crucial throw of the season. think he deserves a little love.

Well, major driver of course but if the pitching is top 10 and the defense is bottom 10 I think we can make two assumptions. First is the bottom third defense is the reason the Twins moved to middle of the pack in run prevention and 2nd that If we had a top 10 defense we would also have a top 10 for run prevention. Run prevention being the major goal. The staff gives up 4.18 runs so of course that is the major driver but if the defense turns that 4.18 into 4.65 that if pretty significant. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 8 wins a year. Every team has unearned runs but the difference between the Twins and the good defense is about 4 games a year give or take a few. For example, bad defense vs good defense was probably worth about 6 runs against the Yankees. Good chance we would have lost those games anyway so you could make the case that there was no impact on the outcome. However, if the offense and pitching were better it would be conceivable that bad defense vs good could have cost us all three games. Thats without even considering what good defense vs bad means to the pitcher.

More power would be great but I don't think it is essential. I compare and contrast to Ben Revere. Revere was a .320 hitter in the minors and a .287 batter in the majors. Pitchers did go after him because of the lack of power but he wasn't as disciplined as Arraez taking around 5% of his at bats for walks. His .287 average was better than average didn't play great because his OBP was only .319 and with no power. I always figured Revere would be a very useful player if he could get his OBP up to around .350 but he couldn't. Arraez has taken nearly double the rate of walks and is already 70 points higher in slugging percentage. Lets not talk about him as if he has no power. There were 15 guys with 200 at bats and Arraez OPS was 6th on the team ahead of Cafe, Castro, Adrianza, Turtle, Gonzo, Buxton, Kron, Rosario and Schoop. Its not great power but if pitchers attack the zone with the sole intention of not walking him the guy will hit .360 with an OBP of .410 and 40 doubles and 6 homers. It is still in their best interests to pitch to the edges to keep him down to a very useful .320 avg and .360 OBP

Buston won't make up for the whole defensive deficiency but he can make up for the outfield deficiency. Much like getting one good pitcher aids in slotting every other pitcher getting one great center fielder has a trickle down effect as well. Now Kepler becomes a good right fielder instead of a mediocre center fielder and plugging in a mediocre right fielder. I truly believe the infield guys can get better with instruction, hard work and pride. If we really think Adrianza has become a good hitter do we believe he can be average or better defensively at shortstop? I think I would like to see Polanco upgrade 3rd base, Adrianza upgrade shortstop and Arraez get better at 2nd. Rocket arm helps at 3rd but I would rather have agility and a quick release..

Fingers crossed on Graterol.

Kepler isn't 6'7 with a 7' wingspan on a liner with short air time. I'm not sure any other right fielder in the history of baseball makes that catch. I might be overstating it but that was what I thought when seeing it live.

Yeah, I mostly agree. I just think the Yankees took good at bats, they played good defense (Judge is the only right fielder in baseball that gets that Sano liner), and they pitched well. They played all phases well with respect to their abilities. Twins did not defend well, they did not pitch well and they did not hit well (how many 3-2 counts did they swing at ball 4?) They played all phases below their abilities. I just don't buy that they were out manned so much as outplayed. I would prefer a #1 that is better than Berrios but if Cole can't find his best pitch like Berrios couldn't find his curve ball or can't find the plate like Littell then he is not going to singlehandedly win anything. We saw that with playoff veteran Greinke. That's baseball and that's the playoffs.

I think I counted 6 runs or so against us because of bad defense. We scored 7 runs in 3 games. Tampa scored a run per game better against a much better rotation than the Yankees.. Nationals scored 2 runs a game more than we did against a much better rotation. We scored 4, 2 and 1. Pitching wasn't good but there were plenty of other reasons we lost in the playoffs. I agree that Polanco could be a good choice for 3rd. A rocket arm helps but mobility and quickness are just as important.. How do we feel about Adrianza? He was really quite good with the bat this year. Do we like his defense at short? Polanco at 3rd, Adrianza at short, Arraez at 2nd and Sano at 3rd with Gonzalez backing up seems better than what we currently have.

I'm not full on board with defensive metrics but that is really bad. I more or less agree with you. The team focus should be pitching. The individual focus should be improving their defense. I am a believer that talent is a big part of defense but that skill is huge also. You are born with the talent, you develop the skill. I mentioned Crede before but I think there are a lot of guys that became good defenders by focusing on the fundamentals, taking lots and lots of reps and just working hard at it and taking pride in it.

Sano made a fantastic play in the 1st inning of game 1 to keep that inning from being big. The two biggest defensive plays in my book were the pop fly that Arraez didn't get to and the double play relay that wasn't caught. I would even put Cave's completely futile dive in left field that allowed the 2nd run in game 3 way ahead of anything Sano did defensively. Twins could slide Arraez to 3rd and keep Schoop until Lewis. Or count on more reps from Sano to help him improve. I remember Joe Crede and others were considered liabilities defensively early and then settling in to be quite good with experience.

Its not like he was a random Uber driver. He threw at three minor league levels, mostly AA and AAA and his worst ERA was AA at 2.57. Overall he threw 135 minor league innings this year with a 2.07 ERA. Then pitched 28 innings at a 1.59 ERA with the Twins including a couple high leverage starts when we really needed them. Given that Pineda was gone and Gibson was just a ghost of himself I was fine with giving Dobnak the start and was actually a little disappointed that he wasn't given the chance to work himself out of the 3rd inning jam. You don;t know how guys deal with pressure but you never will know if you don't expose them to it. Littell was absolutely lights out in relief and then had his worst outing since his first appearance in the playoffs. Many of these decisions were only bad in hindsight. Severino only pitched 12 innings all year. at any level. If Sano hits a grand slam you don't think that would have been 2nd guessed?

If Cave's does'nt make a ridiculous dive that came up 6 feet short reminiscent of this play then Odo only gives up 1 run against the Yankees. If he had 4 more inches of vertical then Odo gives up 0 runs. That really shouldn't come too strongly into play in the Offer. Nick Blackburn pitched great in game 163 and also great in his lone game in the playoffs against the Yankees. The reason you resign Odorizzi if you can is we only have Berrios and maybe Dobnak slated to be starters next year. I am a fan of bullpen games but you can't have three of them every time through the rotation. One year contract prices mean nothing to guys looking for multi year deals so you don't worry about qualifying offer. In fact Trevor Bauer has stated his plan to only make one year deal once he hits free agency which would maximize his earnings if he stays healthy but also not bad for a team that would only be paying a premium for actual current production.

Thanks for the correction. I misread his stats. You are correct. He may be one of the rare suck to start the contract and then do great on the back end guys.

He was paid market value for performance he hasn't come close to in the last two years. I was already thinking, I wonder what it would take to get Darvish. I don't think you would need to part much in way of prospects and was also thinking the cubs might pick up part of the bill to get out from under. Worth a flyer anyway.

I would like to see Kiriloff come up and replace Cron. Resign Odorizzi and Pineda if possible. If Dyson were healthy I would say the bullpen is maybe done but instead we need to replace Dyson equivalent. If we can sign Odorizzi and Pineda then adding one more Odorizzi or Pineda type or better would complete the off season. Cole would be ideal.

Lynn and Sanchez would have looked good to me in Twins uniforms this year and you should probably add Odorizzi to the list. Hughes was great for a year also.

In high school in a single elimination region game we had a an ace and several other good pitchers. We probably had a 50/50 chance against the first team if we didn't use our ace but less than 50/50 against the 2nd team if we didn't use our ace. Our odds were good against either team with our ace. Our coach did not use our ace in the first game, we won that one, and then the 2nd game 1-0 and went on to win the state championship and everyone called the coach a genius. Another season we had the exact same situation with the same ace and the coach made the same decision. We lost that first game and our playoffs were done and our ace was never used. The coach was 2nd guessed by nearly everyone. The exact same situation and the exact same decisions but with different outcomes and in one the coach is a genius and the other he is an idiot. In this case, in game one, yes, Berrios could have maybe gone another inning but he was obviously struggling with the command of his signature pitch. Take a look at Littell's game log this season and you will see he was pretty much lights out all year long. It should have gone Littell, Duffey, May, Romo and Rogers to shut out the game much like it happened many times this season. Instead Littell, who walked 2 guys per 9, walks the first guy, throws a wild pitch, and then beans a guy. Now Duffey comes in earlier than desired and gives up those two runs. It wasn't the plan that was flawed it was the performance by the players. Aaraez should have had the pop up, Cron should have caught the double play relay and the Twins would have been in position to use the relievers in order. Its on the players. They didn't make the plays and the Yankees did. Its not that our players couldn't make the plays or that they couldn't make contact with no outs and bases loaded. Its that they didn't. Its baseball.

After his first game back in May Littell has been fantastic all year long. I had no problem bringing him in. Down 7-4 I would question Gibson coming in but once it went to 10-4 he should have just left him in to finish the game and save Graterol. That is really my only complaint on game management. Yankees brought in all their guys. I hope it comes back to haunt them tonight.. Berrios was not going to last much longer with just his fastball. I don''t know that the Yankees pitching was so much better aside from Littell not having anything Their at bats were better and their defense was better. We showed great patience until the count was 3-2 and then swung at anything. Yankees took walks. They made diving catches. Aside from Sano;'s great play in the 1st we didn't make the plays. The loss will just make winning the series that much sweeter. If we lose tonight it will just make winning the series that much sweeter.

Odorizzii beating Verlander 1-0 and the Dobnak starts stick out to me.

I would give the nod to Odorizzi. Whichever does not start game 1 should start game 3. If they just give us 5 innings fine. There is a reason we are carrying at least 9 relievers. May throw the 6th. If he does well have him throw the 7th if not then bring in Duffey for 2 and Rogers for one. Dobnak and 3 or 4 other relievers for game 2. Since Berrios is the only likely one to go more than 5 innings it would probably be a good idea to let the relievers go more than 1 inning if they throw well. Most of them have built up to that anyway

I think the best odds before the series starts is that the Yankees win 3-2. Next most likely result is the Twins win 3-2. Third most likely is the Yankees win 3-1. 4th most likely is the Twins win 3-1. 5th most likely is a Yankees sweep. 6th most likely is Twins sweep. Like you say, wind, nerves, bounces, missed calls (even balls and strikes), heroics and failures all come into play and make mockery of predictions but the Yankees are still slight favorites to win the first game. If the Twins win Friday they eliminate the least favorable result (Yankees sweep) and turn all the other odds around., but before the series starts the Yankees are favored no matter how much spin you want to put on it. If you want silver lining I would say the Twins have a better chance against the Yankees than against the Astros and they have a better chance against the Yankees this year than the Twins had against the Tigers in 87.