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Brandon

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Everything posted by Brandon

  1. If he could play 120 games in CF / 30 at DH and hit 40 HRs with 40 SB would be a good start. 50/50 would be better. In all seriousness though for 105 million don’t we need 15-20 WAR over the life of the contract to break even and we got more than 4 last year so… I would be happy with a 5+ WAR season as I think it’s prudent to start the contract ahead of pace in case the back end is not so lucky ? also would like to see Buxton hit 30-40 WAR during the contract and get some of those MVP incentives in his contract.
  2. I think we would hit that range 150-160 million payroll in the next 2-3 years. When we are close to the amount dropping down a level.
  3. The Twins are probably trying to see if they can sign Correa. If not the Twins may want to pivot to Abreau and Contreras for more bigger bats for the lineup or they may go after Rodon. Anyway you look at it the major pieces need to fall before a next tier option is pursued. The Twins could get that feel early on and make some pivots. But that C won’t be anyone’s likely top target.
  4. I didn’t say we don’t need to add Rodon. I said we need to add a top starter if we add as we already have the depth
  5. Bechtold could be used in a Mark Contreras sort of way. Severino is interesting with a .907 OPS last season. If he continues to build off that he could become a building block at third. Lee will spend most of next season in the minors. I doubt he is an option before the trade deadline. Julien could be called up anytime I think. He is also a building block. The Twins are really stacked at 2B and 3rd in the minors.
  6. If I had to guess on an extension for Gray, I will go with 3 year 48 million. But I think Bassit will be the comp to watch. If he gets 20 million a year for 3 years, then tell me why Gray wouldn’t get that either.
  7. Maeda is a starter at the beginning of the season. No doubt there. I can see limiting him to 80 pitches per start through May then 90 for the next month or two and 100 or just let loose after that. I can also see the Twins putting him in the pen in August to finish the season. As far as starting pitching goes we actually don’t need to add unless we are adding a top end starter. We have: 1. Gray, 2. Mahle, 3. Ryan, 4. Maeda, 5. Ober, 6 Winder, 7. SWR, 8. Varland, 9. Balazovich if he gets his act together next season. This seems like a lot of options and I am sure more will show up the second half of the season.
  8. So here’s a legit question. When did Pagan ditch the cutter for the curve? What was his era and scoreless appearance percentage after that date? I feel like there was improvement. I did see his ERA drop in September. I am thinking of Pagan as a solid middle reliever next year. I doubt he gets many saves and probably not too many hold opportunities either. I can see 3-5 save opportunities and 10-15 hold opportunities meaning probably around half his games in losing situations. 3-3.5 million is ok for that.
  9. I thought his issue is catching up with fastballs and he T”s off on off speed pitches. Let me know if I am wrong on this, but if that is the case he may be done. He may get a minor league deal with spring invite but he will have to show he can hit a fastball.
  10. If he can keep his ERA below 3.5 he will be worth it. He did that after July 6th to the end of the season. I don’t think this is as huge of a gamble since we have end of game bullpen pitchers ahead of him.
  11. I look at adding Farmer as if we are adding Nick Punto to the roster. He can play all over. He has a hole in his offensive game (OBP). But he fields multiple positions well. He fits the mold of our bench last year in that he won’t be a huge drop off that other benches have issues with during the season. He can fill in at SS or other IF positions for long periods of time in case of injuries. Hopefully he gets less than 300 plate appearances next season as that would mean the front office did their jobs and we have health from our players too. So I am rooting for a sub 300 plate appearance season from Farmer while he’s healthy for the season next year.
  12. Don’t forget the extra year of control too. Farmer won’t be a free agent for 2 more years. Urshala only has 1 more year.
  13. Cheaper than Marwin Gonzales was for us a few years back. this guy almost hits like Urshala. same power. less average.
  14. The Nike logo on the tops bother me for some reason. They totally distract from the uniform. I can’t stop looking at it. My OCD is annoyed.
  15. I guess the Twins plan to get an expensive SS this offseason. Since the just traded their best internal option other than Lewis ….
  16. A minor league deal is not gonna hurt. We can give him a low base high incentive contract. That doesn't mean I think he should be back but that is how I would want him to return if he did.
  17. The great debate….. Sign Correa to a long term deal or the Cubs C Contreras and Bassit to 4 year 80 and 3 year 60 respectively. With a SS like Andrus, which of these two scenarios gives us the most talent and bang for buck? Keep in mind we could resign Sanchez for backup C as he was league average and won’t cost much. Not sure we could afford Bassit if we sign Correa. I think a Rodon signing is too risky for the price compared to better options out there. I only see OF Contreras, Garlick as easy cuts. The others have value and we be tougher decisions in my book. Urshala is an easy keep. I see us keeping Pagan with a lower base like 2.8 million instead of what he is projected. He did pitch better the last couple of months of the season. I can see a pathway for him to return. If it truly was he needed to fail to get to a point of following directions and he is now. also this has been a fun discussion thread to read.
  18. Sisk looks like a LOOGY based on the video. A lefty submariner who probably doesn’t throw too hard. Righty’s will tee-off him in the majors. Since I have no expectations for any of these relievers except for maybe Henriquez since he got innings as a starter. Anything else is a bonus. Even a reliever brought up that throws 5-10 effective innings.
  19. 3 year 21-24 million max. I wouldn’t go any higher then that for him. He might only be worth a 3 year 18 million deal. I look at a good reliever like this. They throw around 1/3 the innings of a good starter and probably a little more compared to good Twins starters. I use 60 innings for relievers and 180 for starters. Anyways if a great starter can get 30 million then a great reliever is worth 10 million. It’s rudimentary and leaves out other factors but for back of napkin calculations this works for me. I would think a good starter who throws 180 innings is worth 20-25 million per season. You can use Bassit as an example. See what he gets per season in FA and divide by 3 to determine what Fullmer should get on a per season basis. How do you determine what Fullmer is worth? Or any reliever for that matter?
  20. 8-9 years in the 33-36 million per year should work. With front loading a little, opt outs and options for another year or two. That should be the framework for a contract. Can we get it done and structured in an acceptable way for both parties?
  21. I prefer to look at it as signing both Carlos's that way it still looks realistic.
  22. I think the Twins will have Moran and Stashak for the pen next year. while Stashak gets injured every year, he still will cost less than 1 million next season. I want the Twins to have lots of rotation and bullpen options for next season. It looks like they will. I would like to see them sign a bullpen arm whether it be Fulmer, Hand, Rogers, or Jansen or Kimbrel, or Roberstson, or...... I think Correa will sign for less than 40 million per season. I think an 8 or 9 year deal in the 33-36 million range gets the job done. (obviously with options, buyouts, and opt outs) Rodon will likely cost closer to the 25-30 million range over 4-5 seasons. expect to pay in the 120-150 million range for 4-5 seasons to get him. Mancini will probably cost in the 2 year 16-20 million range. (He is still a good get at the expense of Kepler. an exchange of defense for more offense) I would find a way to keep Urshala as he seems to be solid on both sides of the ball which is a Twins type of player. Kepler on the other hand has not produced enough offense to justify staying in the lineup. For C I am not opposed to trading. Oakland is rebuilding and I think they have a good C we could acquire for some good prospects. Sean Murphy for Wallner or Eduord Julien and Varland or SWR with a low A lotto player? I know Oakland will want major league ready prospects.
  23. The Twins do get less revenue from cable and radio deals. that would help if they could get an extra 15-20 million extra per season from this. and if we could somehow get attendance up to the 2.5 million range, that would also add to the ability to spend. I wonder how much more revenue is in an extra 400,000 - 600,000 more fans at games. If the average fan spends 60 - 80 for the ticket and food and stuff thats an extra 24 million to 48 million in revenue. So lets pay more for cable and lets all go to more games. That could theoretically add an extra 25 to 40 million for payroll with more money still going to the Twins.
  24. The size of the Twins market vs others is a little skewed by the fact that Minneapolis is the smallest market with every single sports franchise. Hockey, NBA, WNBA, Soccer, NFL and MLB. and independent baseball league if its still up and running. so the Twins are also competing with these franchises and college teams for sponsorship and corporate money. This hinders our revenues some too.
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