Brandon

The Dynamic Duo have brought a creativity towards acquiring prospects that even Terry Ryan who was the master of acquiring prospects never thought of. The first example is one of my favorites. With Ohtani on the market and notifying the Twins they would not be one of the finalists for his services Falvine went and traded their extra international spending cap space for 2 prospects. They traded 1 million in cap space to the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles for Pearson a 2nd round draft pick and OF. The Twins also traded 1 million in cap space to the Mariners of Seattle for David Banuelos a 5th round draft pick and C. Banuelos is still with the Twins and in AAA. I hope to see him get in some games with the Twins just to make these trades a success, But we got essentially 2 high draft picks for nothing. Another example was in the draft when the Twins followed suit from the Astros example and saved money on Royce Lewis to be able to sign another draft pick in the third round who had first round talent. Today Enlow is one of our top 30 prospects in the system and being creative is how we landed him. Granted he lost some luster as a prospect because of the lost 2020 season then Tommy John surgery in 2021, but 2023 should be the year he bounces back from that completely so hopefully we have another mid rotation starter being developed here. The trade deadline sell off. Lets face it we were all mad when the Twins threw In the towel and traded several fan favorite players at the time for prospects. The 2 big names were RP Presley and IF Escobar. We netted Alcala, Duran, and Celestino from those trades, however. The trade of Berrios was unpopular as well and we received Martin and SWR. 2 of our top 15 prospects. For Cruz we got Ryan and Strotman who was a top 30 prospect before regressing. As much as I didn’t like the sell offs I did like this next technique. Making a trade and a little bit more…. When the Twins traded Lewin Diaz to Florida, they got Romo and a little bit more in prospect Valimont (who was a top 30 prospect before regressing). He is no longer with the Twins but this is not the only example. When the Twins traded Garver to the Rangers for their SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa the Twins got a little bit more with Henriquez who is a top 30 prospect. With the trade for Lopez the Twins got a lot (little bit more) with Jose Salas a top 15 prospect and Byron Chorio which is essentially an extra international signing. I actually forgot this and am now adding but they also got Severino when the Braves were penalized for their international signing practices and the Twins were able to swoop in and sign Severino away from the Braves for 2.5 million. This added another in and out top 30 Twins prospect. As Seth Stohs points out he should be in AA next season and 1 year younger then the average player at that level. He also had a high OPS last year. The one creative way that is missing is the Rule 5 draft. A favorite of the last regime, but not used by this one. I am also leaving out the waver wire because most of our acquisitions have not been prospects per se. Also I don't remember the full details on acquiring Cave from the Yankees I think we gave up Gil who is a great prospect for the Yankees and I don't remember what we gave up for Littell either. If i remember correctly he was also a pickup from a playoff sell off with the pitcher we had for a week going to New York. we trade Hnoa to the Braves for that pitcher so essentially a three team trade of Hnoa for Littell and a start by the other pitcher. Overall from their creativity we have a #3 starter in Ryan, 2 RPs in Duran and Alcala, a back up OF in Celestino, and 5 of our current top 30 prospects ( Enlow, Salas, SWR, Martin, and Henriquez) and 1 just outside the top 30 in Severino.

I have one other method that was missed. I am going to write a blog post on it.

When it comes to the front office sticking their necks our, Josh Donaldson says 👋 hi.

With less movement on his Slider more of them may end up as strikes. This lower walk rates. But if contact is made on those pitches, will it be hard contact or soft? I think he will be fine as a 6th or 7th man out of an 8 man bullpen. He may be declining but he should have a season or two left in his arm.

I think it was leaked the Mets counter offer was 6 years guaranteed at the same rate. I think the Twins saw an opportunity to restructure their offer to 1. show Carlos appreciation and respect. 2 it blew the Mets offer out of the water in that there was no way the Mets would up their annual guarantee during the 6 years guarantee section to match. There was probably a concern from the Twins that Boras would go back to the Mets if the Twins had the same 28.5 million per year value. but 33.33 million average plus the Mets would be in the 92% bracket for payroll tax making Correa a 60 million per season player. The Mets were not going to do that. Thus, securing Carlos services for the future. Plus, Carlos will likely get a post career contract to do stuff with the Twins as an all-time Twins great.

He’s basically Terry Ryan with flair.

I started to like this but then i realized i live near Angels stadium. Buxton needs to play on the road in warm climate areas too.

Gordon surprisingly led our LH OF in slugging percentage last year, He could be a starter if Kepler isn't and Larnarch isn't or Wallner isn't...

But how many times have you seen Arreaz foul off strike 3 several times before getting a hit or walk. A fair amount hence the reputation.

I would start with the fact that Salas is a top 100 prospect. I would likely slot him behind our last top 100 prospect. That would put him 4th in the top 10 rankings. I suppose if you think Prielipp could be ranked higher. But I won’t. Salas is 4th on our list. I wonder how that affects our farm systems ranking with another top 100 prospect. Are we now higher then 15 or even 12 now?

Things to consider is monetary value: fan morale: team morale: I m sure some of this is taken into consideration to some degree and they know that most dips are temporary with the caveat that the trade is at least beneficial to our team. But the other example is the Rays. They win alot but are boring because most fan favorites get traded. so there is a value to this and it can impact the following season's payroll if revenues dip. (not really from the Arreaz trade but if several fan favs leave or are traded...) How would something like this be quantified so that it can be used by management for trade purposes? to get a possible answer started I think it would be a weighted possible outcome of the trade. Also i think a trade in season may have more effect then the offseason since in the offseason there is time for fans to grieve the loss of fan fav and to start looking for a new one. so three possible outcomes for simplicity sake i will go with 30 / 40 / 30 % liklihood of happening 30% liklihood of Lopez getting injures and Arreaz winning a batting title in Miami (how does this affect the three things above and what is net attendance change as a direct result of this info? and is there a way to quanitfy this? Do we see some Miami jerseys at Target Field as a result?) Do fewer people watch games or a few more from Minnesota tune in to watch Miami games instead? (This can be tracked through MLB.com) maybe see a net loss of 500 per game or 80,000 fans at games through out the season which could lower revenues 6 million at 75 per fan per game. plus maybe viewership of games go down on MLB.com. I dont think that impacts our bottom line.... 40% liklihood of both Lopez and Arreaz performing well (I imagine this would help both clubs as we may see some in Miami follow the Twins and some in Minnesota following Arreaz in Miami. Interest in both teams go up a little.) 30% likelihood of Lopez performing well and Arreaz getting injured. anyways this is a hard topic and i dont have the answers just a few ideas of what could go into a calculation and wonder if there is a way to determine it. someone who wants a front office job in college can now write a detailed paper on this and probably get a job offer if it is compelling enough.

His UCL had the profile of on that had a higher risk of needing surgery down the line. In fact it was a high likelihood hence his contract. That doesn’t mean it will happen the first year after signing but it was likely during the contract and guess what…..

I wanted to point out that the Twins did offer Darvish over 100+ million same as Wheeler. so they Twins were willing to spend in the rotation.

The Dodgers had concerns from their physicals about his UCL in his elbow. It was such a concern that Maeda signed a team friendly deal and the Dodgers handled Maeda carefully to get the most out of him.

Tough crowd. I see the optimism. I think the Twins can be winners this year. Avoiding Injuries is the key. They have the best depth in baseball. If they sign Gurriel it should be for a low base guarentee. and that should wrap up the offseason. at this point I hope they keep Kepler. if they sign Gurriel it could become a 3 way competition for 2 spots for Gurriel, Kepler and Larnarch for DH and OF. or DH and 1B .....

Arreaz was an international free agent signee but traded. Kepler and Polanco were as well but from 2009 and Bill Smith regime.

Since Arreaz was traded for Lopez and a top 100 prospect and a lotto ticket prospect. There are lots of people here writing how disappointed they were. I am disappointed even though I know the trade was a good one. With so many people not happy how will that affect the Twins and for how long? Is there a bell curve to show how team revenues or attendance changes after popular players leave the organization after a trade? Do the TV ratings drop as well? I am sure some players wont change the needle much but could there be a drop of say 2500 in attendance for a month or two until the Twins are able to take a commanding lead in the Central division? that could be a net drop in attendance close to 100,000. would that affect us in 2024 payroll in some capacity? What other factors would come into play in this calculation. It just seems like there is something there that isn't being quantified or used in the trade valuation calculations. Knowing this could help the front office make trades that not only help the talent level but increase the Team and Fan Morale as well. Another way to look at this. is can the front office through marketing surveys know the popularity of a player and assign a WAR or some unit of value that can be used in negotiations for a trade. Another player example would be Joe Mauer. How would we value him as a fan favorite over other players in a potential trade scenario? I mean the front office never considered trading Joe because of the Fan Favorite value. so how do we measure it so it can be useful in trade negotiations?

Dyson doesnt belong in the article. but you know who does? Pineda. the original injured pickup for the Twins. They signed him to rehab. Mahle is also a little iffy. Donaldson's calves were well documented and that wasn't a problem here. Maeda was a risk but not with the way his contract was structured. He does count though. Padduck Yep he was was a risk and is TJ'd again. Correa is not a distressed asset. He has an ankle that may cause issues down the line. but he hasn't missed time as a result and his contract reflects that risk with the lower number of years guaranteed. and I am not sure that Minnesota was all that close to acquiring Montas. Buxton's contract was reflective of his injury but yes this one counts. The contracts of the players who are of the injured variety have contracts to deal with the risk properly. And the Team does have depth to handle some of the injuries. Are these players the ones who were so injured we gave away the division last year? Do Ober and Alcala count? what about Duran, he was injured the year before he came up?

New Line Up: 1B Killeroff 2B Polanco SS Correa 3B Miranda C Jeffers / Vazquez OF Kepler OF Buxton OF Gallo DH Larnarch / Wallner / Gordon / Garlick Bench: Farmer Rotation: Lopez Gray Mahle Ryan Maeda With SWR, Ober, Varland, Winder, Dobnak and Balazovich all waiting for a chance.

Clearly Salas is the key for the Twins to win this trade. If he comes up and is a solid SS or other position player and produces 3 WAR a season and Lopez can be good in the playoffs then the Twins win this trade. Its not just losing a high on base average player. But someone who also is loved by the fan base and bridges the gap to yesteryear when Carew was winning batting titles. We should win this trade based on talent received but its hard to keep interest up when fan favorites are traded. The Rays are not a fun overall team to follow cause of this and they win alot.

Boras has lots of clients on the Twins. Jeffers, Killeroff and there are other prospects who use him as well.

Wasnt Gallo in the 2012 draft also?

The team looks good going into spring training. I would like to see 1 more major league reliever signed and if we trade Kepler in a deal for a starting pitcher that would put the finishing touches on a solid offseason. Really the big need for this coming season is avoiding injuries. Though we do have lots of depth to handle injuries except the pen……

Both Yankees and Marlins could use a CF like Kepler. The drop off in what is available at that position is huge after him. That is where Kepler’s value lies.

Well said. Great article!