Riverbrian

It's hard to feel optimistic given everything that has transpired. I wouldn't even call my statement "Closer than we think" optimism in itself... it's just going to sound optimistic when it is placed next to the general overall feeling that most of us are holding right now. But I believe... at worst... there is nowhere to go but up and at best... if the Twins do this right and put every ounce of energy into finding young offensive talent we can find a decent offensive team with some athleticism from players hungry to prove themselves and it may partially reveal itself by the all-star break if not sooner. I'm simply not afraid of youth. When it comes to doing this right. I'm not afraid of youth but not all of it is going to pan out... some may struggle hard so if the Twins take the approach of running multiple options through. They'll find offensive talent because they will find players who exceed expectation along with some that disappoint and they can adjust accordingly. It's all about the accumulation of talent and the commitment to let it grow. Martin, Roden and Outman are going to let us know and the options behind them are breathing down their necks. We just gotta find the answer for SS and 1B so we can provide sufficient numbers to run through the infield positions and pressure Lewis and Lee so they can't suck the life out of the team with .600 OPS performance. It won't take much to reach the level of the past two years. Offense has been our primary problem, station to station averageness on offense has been our primary problem. We have the chance to do some things on the bases now, we have higher ceilings to utilize and strive for potenially greater than the Ty France plug in's. 23rd in runs scored isn't a high bar to clear. We have the chance now to not only match it but exceed it. I like our starting pitching depth. I know it doesn't excite some but I like the depth and potential of it. I think Matthews, Bradley and Abel are live impressive arms. I think you can even move Ryan and the starting pitching can still keep us in ball games. I have no answer for the bullpen because it was completely destroyed other than saying a bullpen can be built from multiple directions and be functional. It doesn't have to be the best in baseball... it can be average. and the team can survive. However... If you look at the best bullpens in baseball by actual performance. They consist of a lot of "who are these guys". They don't all look like the Padres with names we have heard of. This is where I'd like to see the Twins spend some money and add some converted young starters with some gas and get a couple of trade throw in's and maybe... just maybe... it won't be the Hatch nightmare post deadline. How would the Twins front office do this wrong? Make this take longer and the nagging thought that I worry about? They will do it wrong by continuing the practice of trying to Frankenstein things together. They need to run 26 players full speed at the problem at all times. They will do it wrong by wasting 26 man roster space on specialists thinking that they are a late pinch running guy away from winning ball games instead of running 26 players full speed at the problem. They will do it wrong thinking that they can make a platoon combo out of Roden and Martin to Frankenstein things together because you will just kill the development of both as you continue the practice of strip mining your prospects for parts. The front office can flat out F this up by thinking that they... the front office can fix this with math. Instead of letting the players fix it by demonstrating that they want major league jobs. The front office just needs to go on a talent accumulation quest, flood this thing with options and get out of the way and let the success failure ratio fix it.

This team is closer than almost everybody on TD thinks or feels. If the Twins do this right we could be actually encouraged by the end of the year. I know that many feel I just said the dumbest sentence ever but this team isn't as far off as you think. Of course the off-season isn't over and there is plenty of time to get further away before 2026 starts and a nagging feeling that they won't do it right when the front office really needs to get it right.

@tony&rodney I was just answering the question on why BBTV has a lower trade value. Every contending team should be interested in Byron Buxton. That isn't even worth debate but how much will they pay to get him is the question. Would the Giants trade Bryce Eldridge for him? Buxton would provide instant impact, the Giants have Devers to handle 1B. But, would you give up a 20 year old Eldridge for that instant impact from a guy over 30 who has had basically one season of decent health. If the answer to that is no? Maybe it's a yes... but if the you think the answer is that the Giants wouldn't do that. You have just acknowledged that age and injury risk is a factor because Byron Buxton had the 9th best OPS in baseball last season. If these things are not a factor... the Giants trade Eldridge because they are hoping Eldridge becomes the 9th best OPS in baseball. Once you decide it's a factor... the question becomes how much of a factor... while you are doing that calculation... The 45 million owed on the contract has to factored in. I can't explain the formula that BBTV uses. I'm not even here to defend it. I've read the components of it without specific information on the formula/weighting. So, I can't even say that BBTV is right or wrong because it doesn't matter. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. The Phillies and Mets may both decide that Buxton is the perfect addition and nobody else can do what he can do and bid things up while the Giants are watching in disbelief.

Age and Injury Risk.

The Twins won't trade him if it's too low. If he cares about that.

There is no way that I can agree or disagree with you. I simply don't know what Byron thinks or feels. I can only assume and what I assume is this. 1. This may be coming from the Twins telling Byron they would like to consider trades. It may be coming from Byron himself. I assume that I don't know. 2. If he is making an emotional decision. He probably has a smart adviser to bring him down to earth so everything is considered. 10-5 Rights. Chances of Winning, Taxes, Legacy so the decision is rational. 3. I assume that the front office would be somewhat transparent with his agent or him directly. At least as much as they can be. He and his agent will have an idea what is about to happen or at least could happen. We are going this direction... would you like to be a part of our plans? If not, we can have conversations with clubs. 4. It's smart to have options presented to you by not closing the door on anything at all. It's smart to be at least willing to listen to what life would be like for him in the Bronx. 5. If he's going to waive the no-trade clause... he's renegotiating the contract. Not doing that would be... I won't say Stupid... but I'd say not a good move and think stupid in my head. 6. If he is traded... there is no guarantees in life. He could accept a deal to the Mets and watch everything fall apart. If he doesn't get a full trade for the remaining two years. The Mets could trade him to the Pirates. He could get hurt again... He could struggle and watch the Mets trade for Pete Crow Armstrong to replace him. 7. Ergo Propter Hoc. I just don't know but I'm not willing to torture myself with a repeat of 2018. I hope he stays and I certainly don't read anything into this.

I can research it tonight and see if I can come up with examples. Until then... All I can say is that I'm renegotiating and whatever the team is willing to pay will determine if I'm ok with everything I give up. And... I personally believe that he gives up a lot. Beyond his 10-5 status. It would be awesome to be Joe Mauer one club career player. In your scenario... the assumption that he is pissed and just wants out. Well Yeah... He isn't going to let a renegotiation block the exit door. He's gone if the Twins comply and that will depend on the return to the Twins. I've never met Byron before... but I think he's smart or at least has a smart agent who is going to look out for his best interest. I'm certainly not going to relive the 2018 Byron Buxton is gone over service time manipulation wildfire that paralyzed Twins daily.

I believe it is at the conclusion of 2026. According to roster resource his current service time sits at 9.160. He will be over the 10 year mark before the year is out. I'm pretty sure it's why this NTC nuance was negotiated into the contract at this particular juncture. Why would the Twins put it there... because if he waives his no trade rights... the no trade clause lowers trade value. It's basically the Twins saying... well if you waive the NTC to leave... we don't need the full NTC hamstringing a potential trade at the end of a contract when talent is typically waning. And Byron agreed to those terms.

With that said. Seriously... I don't care what his age 35 season looks like. He's one of us. Message to Byron. Please Stay! Message to the Twins front office. Don't do it just tell Buck that you'll listen but you belong in Minnesota and I wouldn't expect a deal. There will be Byron Buxton events at Target Field until he is 100 years old. In this day in age... Players who play for one team is so rare. Buxton needs to be one of those rare guys. One of the very few. He gets traded. He won't be rare. He will just be a run of the mill good player like the many in the history of the sport.

Be willing to waive it is just plain smart. Regardless if he wants out or not.

Off the top of my head. Johan Santana had a NTC The Mets had to negotiate a 6 year deal prior to the trade or something like that? 150 million or so. I don't remember exactly and I don't remember what he was making with the Twins but it was nowhere near the 20 plus million AAV with the Mets. I see the Buxton news (if you call it that) differently. I've said this before. If I was in Buxton's shoes. I've been a Twins fan since before I was born in 1965. I wouldn't want to play for any other team. That's how big a Twins fan I am and I am a loyal guy... have always been. However... despite all of that... I would let the club know that I would... Yeah... Of course consider waiving my NTC if the team was willing to blow my doors off. It will be the only chance for Buxton to renegotiate his (what many call) team friendly deal. He's coming off his only healthy season. It would kind of naive to not at least consider waiving it without hearing what other teams are willing to offer you to waive it and play for them. Being inflexible would be a mistake. I can only guess but if the Mets are willing to increase his AAV and add an extra year... what you really turn down 55 million for Minnesota loyalty? He's certainly not getting anything like that with his next contract. Now... the other side of this is the Twins. If the Mets or Phillies agreed to add an extra year and increase his AAV significantly. They won't give the Twins the talent back in return for a trade. So if I'm the Twins... I won't take the trade. You are better off with Buxton remaining and hopefully retiring a Twin. All we can do as fans is endure the rumors until something happens. Buxton will have to express to the Twins what he would require so they can negotiate a trade with the new parameters but the negotation hasn't happened yet and those agents might turn around and say... Yeah... that's what I told the Twins but to live in New York... I'm going to need more and now the Mets don't like the trade. In the end... if he leaves... he leaves. The franchise will go on. But... a lot of things have to be sorted out and yeah... he probably won't get that statue in the plaza. One more thing... in regards to his NTC rights. If he waives it... he is unprotected for the next two years. He can list 5 teams and that's it. He might take that deal with the Dodgers but the Dodgers can turn around and trade him to Pittsburgh.

64% of Hockey players shoot left handed. They are a bunch of weirdos.

Close but... Yes... the full no-trade clause in his contract does expire after 2026. Because the no trade is no longer necessary because he will have reached 10-5. 10 years of service and 5 with the same team gives him full no-trade protection. It doesn't need to be expressed in a contract. If he does waive his no-trade. His no-trade would be limited to 5 teams for the final years of the contract. If he waives this year. He gives up 10-5 rights and full no-trade protection unless he renegotiates full no trade into the new contract along with a hefty raise. There's a lot for Buxton to consider.

Who knows but I feel compelled to say again. His team friendly contract will probably not remain team friendly. In order to waive the no-trade clause his only leverage. He's going to renegotiate that team friendly contract so it isn't as friendly. If Byron was a free agent this year... what would could he get? I don't know but that's what his agent will probably ask. 3 years at 25 AAV. Is that out of line for Buxton? That's his only leverage and he would have to be out of his mind to just give that up. That renegotiation is going to lower his trade value perhaps significantly so I'd say Jason Martinez didn't factor that in. Besides... How many teams actually have 3 top 50 prospects?

The Mets need starting pitching bad so non surprise on the rumor. Actually no surprise if 20 teams are interested. Let's see who pays the price because everyone wants starting pitching. According to BBTV. I know... BBTV isn't the be all end all. Ryan 52.7 It would have to be Tong (If that's who the Twins indeed like) 25.3 Plus either: Sproat 23.2 or Baty 24.5 or Benge 23.3 or Vientos 19.8 or Jett Williams 20.3. That add up to 49.8 at the highest and 45.1 at the lowest. The Mets would still come up short so they may need to throw in a bullpen option or a young lottery ticket. Disclaimer: I have no strong opinions on any of the names that I posted. I'm just reading off of BBTV and adding up the value. Nor strong opinions on the accuracy of BBTV.

I think a new paradigm has hit the MLB Front Offices. Everybody just watched the Dodgers overload on starters like no one has ever done before. Then get through the season without rotation congestion and then follow that with a World Series title with almost insignificant bullpen use as those starters ate nearly every single inning. I think the Blue Jays are attempting the same thing. They may not be done shopping for starters. Varland on the other hand. He probably stays in the bullpen. He seems to be doing quite well there.

LOL I watch... Don't do much with the information but I watch... usually switch back and forth with the Twins game that night. I keep waiting for someone to get drafted... walk up on stage get handed that Browns Jersey and tell the ESPN interviewer afterwards. "I Really was hoping the Browns didn't draft me... Cleveland Sucks... Nobody wants to live in Cleveland".

They can acquire as many left handed hitters as they like. What they need to stop doing is compromising their development and wasting roster spots on right handed specialists to handcuff them to. 75% of pitching is Right Handed... More left handed hitters is how you correctly play that split. However... the Twins need to acquire talent period regardless of what batters box they stand in. In regards to the reporting of the failed Red Sox deal. It makes perfect sense that the Red Sox would not want to include Duran or Abreu in a deal for Ryan at the deadline. They were contending for a playoff spot or division title. Duran and Abreu were huge necessary parts of that quest. The Red Sox would have tried to get the Twins to take prospects in return so they can add to Duran and Abreu for the stretch run. Now that it's the off-season and teams are restructuring their roster. They may be more inclined to deal Duran or Abreu.

Great Post. I agree with much of it. It's just the trading Buxton part that I disagree with. I agree that we probably get the most value out of a Buxton deal right now IF... IF... if his contract simply follows him without adjustment to it. However... I don't believe it will. I'd guess that the contract negotiation that is sure to come to waive his no-trade will minimize the return to the point that the trade may no longer be worth it. If Buxton doesn't demand a renegotiation in order to waive it would be a critical mistake on his part. Let Buxton play out his current contract. Let him lead this group of young ball players forward. We are hoping these players turn into a Buxton anyway... so let Buxton be Buxton... trading him would just be an unnecessary step back that we don't have to take. Let's see how he is doing at age 35 and then work on a new deal to keep him in a Twins uniform after that providing his career hasn't fallen off a cliff in that time. Retiring a Twin would make him a rare player in this day and age. Buxton would belong with a group of people like Cal Ripken, Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek. George Brett.

I can honestly say that I have never watched an NFL draft and demanded someone's head afterwards because they took the CB out of Kansas State. Yet, everybody I talk to afterwards is pissed the day after. I just really try to come to grips with my own limitations and those limitations are the same as everyone else. I have no idea who is better between Aiden Miller and Jett Williams. None. Yet... if I conceptually mention one of those names specifically... my next step is to try to get out of the hole I just dug because the guy I mentioned conceptually subjectively sucks. That leaves me with strategy and direction. It's all I got and it's why I'm singing that same song over and over again.

This is what I try to keep saying. No one knows who will rise and who will fail. They are making extreme utilization decisions on marginal differences from a large pile of players in the middle. The front office have more informed guesses than we do but they don't know either. This is proven true time and time again. It applies to whoever we get back in a trade for Ryan and to whoever is on our roster currently. The only thing that you can do to mitigate this. Volume If the Twins... or anyone is afraid to add a talented SS because Lewis is at 3B, Lee is at SS, Keaschall is at 2B and we have Culpepper in St. Paul. It's a terrible mistake to feel that way because of what you posted. Injuries and the very real chance of failure. It's a terrible mistake because if you added a talented SS to our mix. It would mean 4 players with potential to cover 3 spots. Those players would sit one game out of every 4 if divided equally. That isn't going to compromise anyone's development And it won't last long because the equation will change because of injuries that are sure to occur and if Lee starts to OPS .800 while the new SS is a .600 OPS guy. The manager will change the equation because the players have told him through performance. If the Twins take this approach... they will get where they need to go faster than hand selecting and hoping that Lee works out at SS getting every single start with Kreidler wasting a 26 man spot not playing waiting for an injury to Lee so he can come in an OPS .300 as his replacement. And if by some chance... a miracle actually... that the new Young SS, Lewis, Keaschall, Lee and Culpepper are all tearing the cover off the ball and playing exceptional baseball. It won't happen but if it does... They can trade one of of them for someone else's Joe Ryan... because it's been established... that teams just don't give up these uber talented guys so if you have an extra one lying around... the return for one of them will be huge. But, you can't get to that point if you are just sitting there hoping that Brooks Lee gets it done and Brooks Lee is the only player that you are willing to seriously provide opportunity to and if he doesn't... you are just starting over with a single player 3 years later.

I love posts with examples like that. A good analogy, parable, allegory, exemplum, metaphor, fable, simile always makes the post more interesting. Winston Churchill once said: The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences. Revelations 3:16: So, because you are lukewarm and not hot or cold, I am about to spit you out of my mouth. I agree with you but I'm also of the opinion that it's OK that Horatio Gates attacks Saratoga with Buxton playing the role of Benedict Arnold. In order to prevent him from becoming what Benedict Arnold would become in American History.

Right now... I'd have to say. No I don't. At the same time... I'm not convinced that they actually tried. If they go back to strip mining prospects for parts. Wasting roster space on role players. I will cement that opinion.

If the Twins get the #1 pick. Jett Williams or Dante Culpepper 😁 should have no bearing on the selection of that pick. You draft the best player. If it is Chowolsky... then that is who you take. I'd strongly recommend making the draft a separate consideration and I wouldn't freeze or avoid accumulating talent today because you might accumulate talent tomorrow. If we end up with 4 SS's that can play... That's great news. Wonderful... Let's do it. We can pick the best ones, move some to different positions or trade them to another team that only has Brooks Lee and Ryan Fitzgerald on the 26 man roster.

And they still manage to find the room to find Max Muncy. Development + money = Bulletproof