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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    With the wide variety of opinions expressed by the Twinsdaily community. A leader from the community would have to be selected to consolidate those opinions. That selected leader would be torn to pieces by the very same Twinsdaily community that did the selecting.
  2. Riverbrian
    Willi was a highly ranked prospect in the Cleveland system before he was traded to Detroit. A decent comp for Willi Castro is Jorge Polanco. Both were international signings at age 16. CBA rules force clubs to add these young IFA players to the 40 man at a very young age or lose them in the rule 5 because after 5 minor league seasons... they must be added to the 40 man roster. Ready or not... Polanco had to be added to the Twins roster at age 20 Castro had to be added to the Cleveland roster at age 21. I believe Polanco has been better in comparison but Polanco barely played out of the gate and then had some up and downs. Very little power turned to power around age 25 for Jorge. Who Castro is... is yet to be determined. The tools sure seem to be there. Give him some playing time. Let him determine his future by giving him a chance to. We may have stuck in our thumb and pulled out a plumb here.
  3. Riverbrian
    Once opinions are wedged into something... It takes dynamite to dislodge them.
  4. Riverbrian
    I get the desire to rush Brooks Lee. I'm excited about his future with us as well. However, rushing him to the big leagues when he isn't rule 5 eligible until 2025 is incredibly careless at worst... risky at best. There is no reason to place him on the 40 man roster unless he is going on the 26 man roster. You have to be 1,000 percent positive that he is going to be a very productive out of the gate on that 26 man roster... not just average production because average production isn't a short term gain that will justify the longer term loss of his service time. You would have to dynamite a hole in the 26 man roster by shedding a capable player in order to place him on the 26 man. Don't rush him... let him continue to progress into the player we want him to be. If he does... an injury will create the opportunity for him.
  5. Riverbrian
    He's 23 and he has two options remaining. What he is today is not what he will be tomorrow. We have coaches who work to improve young players. We have data to guide the improvement, we have all kinds of video doo-hickeys to develop a young player with potential. As long as the Twins feel he is worthy of 40 man roster spot, they feel he has a future.
  6. Riverbrian
    I've always heard that 27 is the peak age for a baseball player. Never seen data on it. Just heard it and then thought to myself... OK... 27 is the peak age for a baseball player but I've always assumed that individual players will peak at their own individual time so I've never worried about the accuracy. However, the way that baseball is structured. More so than age... Options... Options tend to toll a lot louder than father time itself. Options give you time to allow for further development if the player looks worth of investment. At the age of 27... you'd like to see them MLB productive by that age, the best players are already in a major league uniform but those options do allow teams to store players that may be ready right now in the minors and teams would be foolish to not store players that may be ready right in the minors because you will need them when in injuries occur. In other words... it may not be (entirely) Larnach's fault or his lack of talent that he isn't settled in a major league uniform at this time. The CBA practically demands that teams utilize every last option on players like Larnach for injury depth. Once a player runs out of options like Gordon. That requires performance right now. They must justify that 26 man roster spot. Canterino has 3 options remaining, We got time with him. Even father time. Jeffers, Wallner, Varland, Headrick have 2 options remaining. I doubt that Jeffers see the minors for a long time. Wallner or Varland could see St. Paul if they struggle. Castro, Larnach, Kirilloff, Moran, Sands have 1 option left. These 5 can be held in the minor leagues for 1 more season before they must be placed on the 26 man roster or exposed to other teams. For Castro, Larnach, Kirilloff, Moran and Sands. I think Kirilloff and Castro are in pretty good shape but for Larnach, Moran and Sands especially... This is a big year for them. The clock for these guys is ticking like Marisa Tomei's biological clock in My Cousin Vinny.
  7. Riverbrian
    I get it... It's almost like the exploration of this rabbit hole would require a full time job. Most of us surface dwellers don't have the inclination to go down there because it's just easier to make some comment about Rocco and his spreadsheets. Even if some of us are inclined to take a look, we certainly don't have the time because what you find down there is going to split off in multiple directions and leave you down there for days, weeks, months. I just really believe that you are pointing at a rabbit hole where the answers lie. It's easy to say K's are the problem. They are... we led the league in them and that has to be a problem worthy of solving but they are clearly not the whole story as illustrated by simple comparison of actual results. The answer us surface dwellers seek (for those who are seeking) isn't going to be found by looking at Twins data exclusively. It's going to require looking at Cleveland and Washington and asking why. Along with looking at the other 27 teams to compare and contrast with. The Twins (All baseball teams) employ lots of analysts. I don't know what they all do but I'm willing to bet that they are not repeating the same work because that type of redundancy would be pointless. I have no idea how many analysts they employ but if they employ (for example) 20 of them... I'm willing to bet that all 20 are not bringing Rocco and the front office 20 duplicate versions of the same left/right splits that I like to complain about in the name of development and in the name of preparation for future needs yet to be determined. I'd like to think that a few of those analysts employed by clubs are down in this very rabbit hole and work down there for a living. Maybe Twinsdaily can create a data rabbit hole forum for those inclined because the conversation that Chpettit19 started and that you took to the rabbit hole is potentially one thousand times more interesting and informative than the Rocco needs to put down the spreadsheets down commentary that exists in proportion large enough to be no longer interesting to me.
  8. Riverbrian
    Dman You are not an idiot for the suggestion. I wouldn't offer him a QO but he is a good pitcher with value and I will not call you an idiot for the thought.
  9. Riverbrian
    First off... I find this discussion interesting and I hope you are not tiring of it. Yes I agree with both Chpettit19 and you. It isn't as simple as simply avoiding strikeouts. I believe that you are pointing at the correct rabbit hole in your data driven reasoning that it isn't as simple. Where we are possibly crossing our wires was my attempt to respond to what you typed below in order to continue this interesting discussion. The b-ref hitter count stats that you linked to in an earlier post are not calculating swing and misses with zero strikes or one strike or foul balls for that matter. They are calculating hit, walk or out events that occur with zero strikes or one strike and then calculating OPS and OBP and Slugging from those AB ending events. It isn't three bad decisions because you can't end the AB with a strikeout with zero or one strike. The AB lives on. It is simply the third strike that registers the numbers that you linked to. The strikeout gets introduced to the math only with two strikes... therefore the 43% strikeout clip that occurs with two strikes is unique to two strikes and would be a conditional probability that explains the 35% run production in the face of the 53% AB's reaching two strikes. Perhaps... you are muttering to yourself... Yes of course RB. But, It isn't clear to me that we are on the same page in this attempt by me to point out a possible conditional probability. Anyway... I hope you haven't exhausted yourself on the conversation. I'm enjoying what you are bringing to us all. And yes... I agree with you. I believe the answer lies in the very deep rabbit hole that you have brought to us.
  10. Riverbrian
    I'm not sure but I think you are saying what I'm saying but... let's find out. According to the song it's one, two... three strikes your out at the ole' ball game. I get that... Three Bad Decisions or inability to execute. However... I am talking about... And hopefully you are as well. What changes when two strikes is reached? The strikeout enters the picture where it didn't exist prior to two strikes. Just to clarify which page both of us are on. 53% of all AB's reach the two strike count. 35% of two strike counts result in run production. All things being equal... over the course of time... two Strike counts should produce 53% of the runs but it doesn't as indicated by the 35%. Zero Strike events result in strikeouts 0% of the time. One strike events result in strikeouts 0% of the time Two strike events result in strikeouts 43% of the time. Only two strikes can produce a strikeout event. Therefore the dumping of 41,844 strikeouts into the 53% 35% data that doesn't/can't exist when the ball is put in play with one or no strikes. Therefore strikeouts becomes a plausible explanation for the drop to 35% run production with two strikes despite 53% of plate reaching a conclusion with two strikes. Every player with two strikes in baseball averages out to a normal Joey Gallo strolling to the plate at bat. Are we on the same page? 😉
  11. Riverbrian
    Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, Lewis, Julien, Farmer, Castro, Gordon, Miranda And Solano? Keeping the platoon structure intact: Which I hope they don't fully commit to again but they probably will. VS RH DH Julien or Buxton C Jeffers or Vazquez 1B Kirilloff or Julien 2B Polanco 3B Lewis, SS Correa LF Wallner or Kirilloff CF Buxton or Castro or Gordon RF Kepler That's 12 out of 13 roster spots and Farmer isn't listed vs RH for 13. VS LH DH Polanco C Jeffers or Vazquez 1B Need Someone 2B Farmer 3B Lewis SS Correa LF Castro CF Buxton or Castro RF Kepler That's 9 roster spots with Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner or Gordon not listed for 13 OK... In order to maintain that platoon integrity... Someone has to go make room since we will be short short side right handers. I choose Gordon... His roster spot can go to short side platoon guy. So you plug Solano back into his short side platoon 1B role. Easy enough... but it leaves the problem of right handed OF depth if Buxton can't play CF. Castro can't cover both LF and CF against left handers so you are now forcing Wallner to face those dreaded left handed pitchers and the platoon system starts to erode a little bit. It also creates the problem of: Solano is brought back... and now we got almost the same roster that we finished with minus Taylor. How does that IMPROVE this roster. Keeping the heavy platoon system is going to be difficult this off-season and it will block the Twins from really improving the offense with a bigger bat if they instead search for Jordan Luplow again to fill this specific short side role. Look for a talented CF and give Gordon's spot to the acquisition. Besides... and perhaps even more important... You can commit to the heavy locked into come hell or high water platoon strategy once again. Spend your off-season trying to plug in the spaces and set your roster to execute it as you hit opening day. A couple of weeks later... Boom... a couple of injuries and that perfectly set platoon roster is in chaos. Just go big... Get a big bat who can hit both lefties and righties. Let the young lefties get some swings in against left handed pitchers.
  12. Riverbrian
    I do believe that this will finally be his first true opportunity for him to make his own decision on where he hangs his hat and I agree that being traded from club to club isn't a player choice. It should be mentioned that Sonny could have been a free agent after the 2019 season. He chose to sign an extension with the Reds before the season started and that same extension transferred over to the Twins in our deal to acquire him. So... Sonny did choose to give up his right to choose at that time. It's apple and oranges though... In January of 2019 he was coming off his worst year with a 4.90 ERA in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees were more than ready to trade him at that point and the Reds agreed reportedly contingent upon Sonny signing an extension. So... Assumptions by me of course. If Sonny wanted out of New York... He needed to sign the extension. Sonny just had a crappy year and an extension probably seemed like a sensible move since it was being offered. So his free agency has been delayed until now by his choice but it sure seemed like the only sensible choice.
  13. Riverbrian
    Next... Let's take this brevity and bring it into the light. If you assume (I do) that pitchers are trying to make batters hit pitches that they don't want to hit. And if you assume (I do) that batters are trying to make pitchers throw pitches in locations that they don't want to throw into. And if you assume (I do) that this interplay between the pitcher and hitter plays a big role in a positive or negative result. How do you increase the odds that the pitcher will make that mistake and throw one in the happy zone? My assumption is that the best way to achieve this is to make the pitcher throw more pitches. The more pitches thrown the better the odds that the pitcher will goof up on one or two or three of them. We have established that Cleveland and Washington strike out less yet hit poorer than their peers. We have established that Cleveland and Washington reach two strikes less than others and we have established that Cleveland and Washington reach three balls less than others. Therefore plausible assumption... Cleveland and Washington simply don't wait for the mistake and victimize themselves by giving the pitcher the advantage the pitcher wants. Another plausible assumption... teams that wait for the mistake by seeing more pitches will reach two strikes more and three balls more and as a result of that they will strikeout more or walk more. So K's become a natural by-product of patience while patience produces more pitcher mistakes and better results. Therefore... When you get your pitch... Hit that ****er!!! I suspect that the best hitters do this more often. And of course you drive the pitch count up and get the starting pitcher out of the game quicker... which goes back to something else I say often: Get bullpen serious because you are going to need a talented full pen if teams are going to make starting pitchers work like those guys who died building the pyramids in Egypt.
  14. Riverbrian
    It was nice that we went back into Cleveland and Washington but I feel my attempt at addressing your feeling got glossed over. Let's set this up: 184,110 Plate Appearances total. 98,402 reached two strikes in the count. 53% of all plate appearances reach two strikes. 22434 runs scored 7807 scored with two strikes on the ump's clicker. 35% of run production came with two strikes. You ask what is the conditional probability paradox that you might be missing? All strikeouts occur with two strikes. there are zero strikeouts when events occur with one strike or zero strikes. Once you hit the two strike condition. You now dump 41,844 strikeouts into the equation. The strikeout is the X factor that can account for the drop in run production once the bell tolls two strikes. Over 98,402 two strikes events. 41,844 result in K's for 43% 41,844 K's that Zero and One don't have. Zero strikes and One strike get to produce runs, with the sac fly and the dribbler to 1B and doesn't have to contend with 43% strikeouts occurring. I'm Just trying to help
  15. Riverbrian
    Cleveland and Washington were near the bottom in walks also. They were not letting the count get to two strikes and they were not letting the count get to three balls either. Team Wide Aggressive Approach? Ben Revere syndrome? Ben never walked because pitchers didn't feel the need to pitch him carefully. 😉 If you want to take Cleveland and Washington into a new light. Check Line Drives and notice that Cleveland and Washington are 1-2 in the total number of line drives. They Don't Strikeout, They don't walk and they hit more line drives. This requires a dive into percentages because if they strikeout and walk less... they are putting more balls in play and therefore have more opportunity to win a line drive counting stat competition. LD% Cleveland is 2nd at 21.3% Washington is 20th at 19.7 BTW Top to Bottom Range of LD% is 21.4% to 18.3 so there isn't a lot of LD% difference between first and last. All teams seem to have similar LD% so Cleveland leading in line drives probably has more to do with not striking out or walking despite placing 2nd in LD%. Moving on to GB% Cleveland was 6th at 44.0% and Washington was 3rd at 45.1%. Top to Bottom Range on GB% is 46.2% to 38% so this produces a little more separation between first and last and tells a little more of the story. So this leads to Double Plays. You strikeout less, walk less and you rank high in GB%... you must hit into a lot of double plays. Nope. I wish life was that easy but it's not. Washington is 18th and Cleveland is 21st. To round out the batted ball results. Look at FB% and you find what Cleveland and Washington doesn't do with all of that contact. Washington is 26th at 35.2% and Cleveland is 28th at 34.7 FB% Range from Top to Bottom is 41.3 to 33.6% so it has a similar spread as GB%. In my head... I am leaning toward the possibility that Cleveland and Washington haven't learned the art of not swinging at pitches the pitchers want them to swing at. Making contact earlier than most but poor contact more often than most. But... There are more things to check before rushing to judgement. Sequencing for example. We are going to need some coffee. 😉
  16. Riverbrian
    You are missing an X Factor or conditional probability paradox. It's going to bring this discussion around full circle. Are you ready. Here it comes: The two strike count is the only time that you can... Bum - Tah - Bum. (Dramatic Pause) Strike Out!!! It's the introduction of a new way of getting out that didn't exist in earlier counts. Zero Strikes, One Strike... You must put the ball in play in order to record an out. We are now back where we started.
  17. Riverbrian
    I can condense this into legendary brevity. Here it comes: When you get your pitch... Hit that ****er!!!
  18. Riverbrian
    Amen Old Man... Amen. I could work every single aspect of my phone in the 80's.
  19. Riverbrian
    You are right on the money in my opinion. That ole' choking up bit is so 1980's unfortunately many of us are still in the 80's and try to apply to today even though it is clearly gone. 😉 Major league pitchers are very very very good. The good ones make a living getting batters to make contact or swinging at pitches that they want you to make contact with. Major league hitters are also very good and the best ones don't swing at the pitches that pitchers want you to swing at and that can bring them to the two strike brink often. Major league hitters have amazing strike zone awareness. They will get rung up on that two strike pitch dotting the black because they are still looking for that pitch to drive with two strikes. The best hitters don't miss the mistakes at whatever count they are thrown. The worst hitters they miss those mistakes more often than they should and the numbers will reflect that. With all that said... Man... The Twins have got to cut back on those K's. Oh and one more thing. Catch the ball with two hands is something that is still being tossed out from the 80's.
  20. Riverbrian
    Accessibility is absolutely critical. This is a major opportunity for Baseball to create a model with no barriers to access and by doing so... the sport can grow in the demographics that they desperately need to grow in to sustain their product well into the future. If short term financial gain is the goal of whatever they come up with... they will blow this opportunity. Baseball needs to be everywhere every one is. There should be no barriers to accessing your baseball team on all devices and all locations. Making up numbers to illustrate in a very elementary way. If given the choice between 1 million consumers at $100 per or 5 million consumers at $20 per... Take the 5 million. I shouldn't have to struggle to watch the Twins vs Red Sox in July on my cell phone from Knoxville Tennessee if I happen to be in Knoxville Tennessee.
  21. Riverbrian
    I agree that Jeffers usage should increase in 2024 but Vazquez is going to take away significant playing time... not only Vazquez but whoever is catching if Vazquez gets hurt for stretch because catchers typically have playing time limitations and I don't see that changing. In 2019... Jason Castro's final year. He caught 78 games while Garver caught 82. Garver DH'd 4 games for a total of 311 AB's during the season. That was a total of 74 more AB's than Castro had. The playing time difference between Garver and Castro wasn't significant and you have to consider that Garver hit 31 home runs in those 311 AB's with an OPS+ of 157, Garver was the best hitting catcher in baseball that year and it wasn't even close. Despite those incredible offensive numbers... Castro took significant playing time from Garver. In 2018... Garver caught 86 games... Castro was out for the season after he tore his knee up in May. The combination of Castro, Bobby Wilson, The Turtle, Gimenez and Graterol caught more games than Garver did. In 2017... Castro was the guy catching in 108 games. In 2023... JT Realmuto led the league by putting the pads on in 133 games but Realmuto didn't have a 10 million dollar guy behind him. Garrett Stubbs with his career .631 OPS making the minimum appeared in 40 games. Cal Raleigh caught in 128... DH'd in 15 games. Ruiz caught in 117 games DH'd for 16 with the Nationals. Those three were the squatting leaders in 2023. Adley Rutschman led all Catchers with 588 AB's... Catching 110 games total. The Orioles did have a 10 million dollar guy behind him in James McCann who got behind the plate for 59 games. Rutschman got to 588 AB's by also appearing as DH in 46 games. William Contreras caught 108 games and served as DH in 33 games. Salvador Perez was at 1B for 23 games and DH for 29. 95 Players in 2023 had over 500 AB's... Only 5 of those were catchers (those 5 are illustrated above) everyone of those catchers spent frequent time at the DH position to climb to that AB level. For the Twins... Vazquez had 311 - Jeffers had 286. No matter how good Jeffers is and I think he is very good. The presence of Vazquez plus the rest that catchers require plus the consideration of the multiple options provided by our depth to utilize the DH position plus the possibility that someone like Buxton hogs all the DH AB"s... it should all scream out to everyone that Jeffers will have limited playing time. The 350 AB's that Jeffers might get in 2024 can (in theory) be upgraded to 500 AB's from players that play other positions at his present "Sell High" value.
  22. Riverbrian
    Exactly... The front office can't even predict what will happen in the off-season... let alone us mere mortals. It's a nice to have someone like Varland who can fill into the cracks.
  23. Riverbrian
    Emilio Pagan threw 69 Innings to lead all of our relievers. Bailey Ober threw 144 innings. Lopez threw 194 innings. It is really kind of simple. Get your best pitchers... more innings.
  24. Riverbrian
    I hope that everyone reads your excellent post... understands what you are saying and remembers what you are saying next July before they are about to type things like "Weak Central" or "This team can't win in the playoffs" as they minimize a team sitting in first place or in contention for the playoffs or justify not making trade deadline improvements. Never take contention for granted. You build a team to survive the regular season and make the playoffs. If you are in contention... try to make yourself stronger. The best records in baseball are teams that win 6 out of 10 games on average. The Worst records in baseball are team that win 4 out of 10 games. Those very same margins get even tighter once you make the playoffs. Anybody want to bet everything you own based on those margins. Go ahead and pick your favorite team and give me the field. I'll take that bet every single time. Unfortunately... by opening day 2024... very few will remember that the 6th seeded D-Backs are taking on the 5th seeded Rangers in the World Series and those who remember will have found a way to adopt the Rangers or D-backs success into their own personal narrative on how a team is built to win the world series. For those who had Brandon Pfaadt and his 5.72 ERA during the regular season on their bingo card... Rise up and explain it to us.
  25. Riverbrian
    Your point is even stronger if you use post all star break. The Twins were 5th in runs scored during that stretch. That way you don't allow the 24th in runs scored pre all star break to drag your numbers down to 10th.
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