Riverbrian

Offensively?. I'll take Larnach without much debate. Versatility? Yeah... I'll take Caratini. But... lets make sure that we are on the same page. His versatility is at 1B and DH. His bat isn't 1B or DH. His 2 year 7 million value comes from his ability to catch.

The article was an interesting read. I look forward to part 2.

I don't necessarily agree but it's well argued.

I hate the "Lie" word. What is a GM supposed to do when he really doesn't know the answer to the questions that are constantly asked. The Twins may plan on keeping Jeffers and they can answer the questions concerning Jeffers by saying that we plan on keeping Jeffers. Jeffers wants to know what is going on so they tell his agent that they plan on keeping Jeffers as the primary catcher. This all changes when a trade package comes along that changes their mind. Do we want them tied to their word if they get a deal they shouldn't refuse. Do we really have to call them liars if they take the deal?

Well... Good Luck to both. Should be a good organization for Julien to build his career. If both remained healthy. The Twins were going to have to choose between Clemens and Julien. Looks like the Twins have chosen Clemens.

How much attention should you give to 27%? Yes... Left Handed Hitters vs left handed hitters is the worst matchup for a hitter out of the 4 possibilities. Left Handed Hitters vs Right Handed pitching is the best matchup for a hitter out of the 4 possibilities and this matchup occurs 73% of the time. If you are playing matchups... Why wouldn't you want 9 left handed hitters in the lineup vs that 73%? I'm not saying that they should have 9 left handed hitters but if you are going to play the splits... isn't the 73% the right way to play the split. If you do the math. Just using the major league averages. 73% at .747 and 27% at .646 adds up to a bigger number than the right handers post at .703 73% and 721 27% of the time. Here are the numbers: The Left Handed hitter on average will hit .725 against both hands and the right handed hitter will hit .707 against both hands. Now it still comes down to the player. These are just averages. However... if you are going to play the split. PLAY THE SPLIT. Who hits right handed pitching... more of them on the roster please if you have to choose. The top ten teams in OPS in 2025 is the exact same top ten in team OPS vs Right handed pitchers and it's because of the 73%. Why should a team with 8 right handed hitters on the 26 man roster be searching for a right handed hitting outfielder like the Twins were doing the past three years? Detroit was 2nd against left handed pitching with a team .774 OPS. They were 21st with a .712 against right handers. This created a .729 overall. The 27% doesn't drive that needle through the roof because it's only 27%. On the other siide of that the Mets were 2nd against RHP with a .777. They had a .696 against LHP. That made up a .753 overall... the needle doesn't fall through the floor. Why does Wallner need to be platooned. 18-46-44 and 85 plate appearances vs lefties during the development years of age 24,25,26 and 27. He got to 85 after being starved for 2 years and his stats didn't produce a huge split differential? If you increase the sample size and the numbers go up...What was the purpose of only 108 plate appearances three years prior? Is Wallner better for it? Does it compromise his development? Does he have more trade value as a player who hits both hands or as a player that requires a 4 million dollar handcuff. Has the Twins organization really thought about the future trade value of Matt Wallner during his existence? Did it matter or was strip mining for parts the sensible thing to do... create enough value to trade him for a reliever down the road when the team goes into sell mode? Was Kyle Schwarber a lefty killer in his early days? How do you become Kyle Schwarber? I'll stick my head in the lions mouth in regards to Larnach. 118 Plate appearances against lefties and his numbers got better. Yeah I get it... .600 OPS against lefties is well below average and everyone is dragging his body into the ditch at the moment but it appears that his number is higher with more AB's then it was with barely any AB's. I don't know... I'm just of the impression that exposure is helpful and I also assume that coaches do something? Both Wallner and Larnach had more AB's last year against left handed pitchers than they had in their entire career. It wasn't a disaster. The Twins were ranked 14th against left handed pitching. They were 22nd against right handed pitching. The Twins were absolutely willing to give Brooks Lee 487 AB's for a .655 OPS. Why were they willing to do that. They assume he will get better so you let him work through it. I don't have a problem with this... but if you are willing to Brooks Lee work through it for 487 AB's. What exactly is the damage done by .600 OPS vs left handers 27% of the time? Royce Lewis is allowed to OPS .671 for 376 AB's. That's OK... Royce can use these moments to get better... more comfortable... we will give him another a year of that if he needs it. It's OK... we will counter those two struggling by pinch hitting for Wallner in the 5th inning. I loved Solano he saved us from Gallo. However... while his splits were neutral his plate appearances were not. 254 AB's against Right Handers - 140 vs Left Handers. I hated Margot. 159 AB's against right handers - 156 vs Left Handers. So what exactly is the virtue of rostering a short side specialist. Are we going to keep spending 4 million for these guys... Are we going to Kill a developing Austin Martin and hold him to short side platoon duties. Maybe a 50-50 split like Margot put togethes. And one last consideration. Injuries. What happens when your right handed short sider gets hurt. Are the Twins now obligate or pot committed to call up Fedko instead of Erod because your right hander went down? Do you call up GG and make him a short sider to fill that role so Larnach doesn't have to hit left handers. If you don't call up Fedko... that guy you have been sheltering has got to face left handers all of sudden. Theoretically will a left handed hitter be more comfortable facing Chapman in the 9th inning in September or the playoffs with a decent number of AB's against left handers during the season or constant pinch hitting or bench time when the lefties are on the mound? I sound anti-platoon. I'm not totally... I've just become jaded watching the Twins make the platoon split the primary split in regards to playing time. All of this is budget related. All of things that they I type about over and over again are budget related. The Twins can't afford Joc Pederson and Randall Grichuk because it will leave no money left over to sign Pete Alonso. The only way they will be able to afford Pete Alonso is if they are able to develop a large number of young players making the minimum. We are not doing that. We took every developing left hander, strip mined them for parts and developed them to the point that they must be paired with Margot or Solono. The Twins will not become what we want them to become until they start giving young players full commitment to major league development. Lately... you only get that if you are right handed because of our strange fear of that 27%.

Exactly This failure tax bill was always going to come due. Unfortunately it came due at the exact crossroads of diminishing payroll and continued contention expectation.

I'm easily misunderstood. I don't know if Peredes is worth anything at all. I don't know if Eeles is worth anything at all. I won't lose sleep over either. Basically... my point... weak or strong is that it's quite possible that this catcher merry-go-round will just end up in the same place that we started. Needing Cardenas or whoever to step up as the third catcher because Jackson was just picked off waivers. Jackson could sail through waivers... probably will... no idea. Where Peredes could simply hold that spot. A reported decent defensive catcher with decent hitting stats in the minor leagues. Meanwhile we have nearly 14 million invested into Jeffers and Caratini. Only 4 teams have that much invested in the position... all of them because of one contract to one player that exceeds that number. Then I'll throw in the MINOR point that we don't have Eeles... who again may not be worth anything but he does play a position where we will probably hand a 26 man roster spot to Gray, Kreidler or Arcia. We agree on the overall concerns and everything I'm saying can placed into this single overall concern. The allocation of limited resources to a single position.

True I'd like Eeles back. Never met him but I'd like him back.

I am also OK with the risk because... Damn it... Someone has to raise up from the minor league system and hold down the catching position for a lower dollar figure. 3 years of Vazquez staying for the most part healthy and getting equal playing time while draining 10 million every year from the budget is a bill that we are still paying for. The average catcher had an OPS of .694 in 2025. Designated Hitter produced an average OPS of .784. Are we really going to use a catcher to fill that position and expect the needle to move. We have two catchers who exceed .694 to the tune of 15 million dollars. The budget allocation suggests that we are trying to improve our OFFENSE with TWO decent hitting catchers while catcher is the historically the lowest offense producing position on the spectrum. If a catcher is at least decent defensively... Jeffers, Jackson and Pereda could have held the fort down while money was applied to a position that actually hits the ball... moves the needle. I don't have any problem with Caratini... I have a problem with the allocation toward the position. All these moves made and we end up in the same position. Relying on a Cardenas when the time comes. When the truth is that a Cardenas should have arrived 3 years ago, 2 years ago, last year. Catchers are over pays for a team with a limited budget. We are over paying. Perada could have helped control costs.

Yeah... that is certainly a major factor in my concern. Concern over Pereda by himself isn't worth losing sleep over. The allocation spent on the Catcher position might be worth losing sleep over. Pereda as our #3 stashed in St. Paul isn't a bad place to be. Eeles may be worthless, he may be worth something. However, he is minor league depth that doesn't require a roster spot at a position that currently has Gray, Kreidler and Arcia fighting for a 26 man spot. Jeffers catching over 100 games puts Caratini at 1B and DH nearly an equal amount as catcher or we are paying 7 million for a 62 game or less at catcher. We have also invested 7 million in Bell. Bell will have to yield playing time in order for Caratini to get non-catcher AB's. Offensively... Caratini is not statistically better than Larnach. If Jeffers isn't traded... We are using a catcher to improve our offense at key offensive positions at the expense of Bell and possibly Larnach. Where have we gained by spending a total of 15 million on the catcher position. Pereda could have helped manage these expenses.

I get the 40 man pressure. Someone has to go. Having 4 catchers on the 40 man roster is a little on the high side. Pereda probably doesn't matter but Seattle grabbed him because he's a cheap third catcher. The Twins may need one of those.

2025 All Players on all teams: LHH VS RHP: PA 65,309 - PBP .326 - SLG .421 - OPS .747 RHH VS LHP: PA 34,499 - OBP .316 - SLG .405 - OPS .721 RHH VS RHP: PA 67,870 - OBP .308 - SLG .396 - OPS .703 LHH VS LHP: PA 15,248 PA - OBP .299 - SLG .365 - OPS .664 Staffing a roster ultimately comes down to individuals not the collective averages. Just get hitters who can hit period. However, From the above numbers we can make conclusions. 1. RHH vs RHP is the most frequent combination in baseball. It is the 3rd most profitable. 2. By adding the PA's on line 1 and line 3 together you get 133,179 plate appearances against right handed pitching. By adding the PA's on lines 2 and 4 together you get 49,747 plate appearances against left handers. add those numbers together and we have a total of 182,926 across the major leagues. From that league total it can be determined that LHP was on the mound for 27% of all PA's. This means 73% of all PA's were against RHP. This is where I ask everyone to do the math. You have 13 roster spots and 9 starting positions. Knowing that 73% of all pitching is Right handed. Using the averages posted above. What is the optimal allocation of right handed/left handed hitters on a roster? If you have 13 left handed hitters. That's a .747 OPS 73% of the time and a .664 OPS 27% of the time. What will the total add up to? If you have 13 right handed hitters. That's a .703 OPS 73% of the time and a .721 OPS 27% of the time. What will the total add up to? You can only platoon 4 spots. What is the optimal allocation of right handed hitters and left handed hitters? Does it make sense to focus on that .664 27% of the time? Can you focus on that .664 and not ignore the .747 73% of the time. By OPS... The Twins were 14th against left handers in 2025. 22nd in OPS against right handers. Is there correlation between the top OPS teams facing right handed pitching and top OPS teams in baseball.

I'm not going to predict the 2026 performance of each department, We can all assume that the starters will be decent and the bullpen will be terrible. When 2026 is done who knows the end result. Maybe the bullpen gets the job done and the starters fail us. We will see what happens in 2026. In regards to the title of article. Of course a rebuild isn't the only answer. Even if rebuild is the only answer... there are degrees to the level of rebuild. Do you move every player not nailed down or do you move just a couple of them. Trading Ryan and Lopez is different than just trading Ryan. If the Twins are not going to rebuild... like it seems thus far... there are degrees to the level of the aggressiveness of "Going for it". I would call this a low grade level of "going for it". Signing Josh Bell instead of a polar bear is a degree lower. In my opinion... there is one thing that has to happen in regards to the future of this franchise. The front office needs to transition from trying to survive on low level free agents to trying to survive on developing players like Milwaukee... like Cleveland. This transition can't be avoided... we can either do it this year or in future years but future years just delays what will have to be done eventually.

Agreed. I stayed in an old hotel near the Marina on the far eastern side of Central Avenue. It's about a mile walk due west on Central Avenue to Tropicana Field. Central Avenue appears to be the main drag. It's a great walk past restaurants, bars, ice cream parlors, cigar shops and the St. Petersburg residents enjoying the late March Florida weather on the sidewalks. I've spent time in most of our major cities. St. Petersburg is very under rated. It was very enjoyable.

I could be wrong but to my knowledge. The mutual option is barely worth mentioning. It only matter if the agreed upon 13M today... is the value of Joe Ryan after 2026 concludes. The odds of that happening is very slim so the odds of both sides agreeing has to be extremely slim. If Joe Ryan thinks he will get more in arbitration... he declines the option. If Joe Ryan has a down year in 2026 causing the Twins to believe that Joe Ryan will get less than 13M. They decline the option. The odds of Joe Ryan's arbitration value landing at exactly 13M after 2026 has to be rather low. Since Joe isn't eligible for free agency after 2026. It just doesn't matter. The declining of the option by either party just puts them back into Arbitration next off season since Joe isn't eligible for free agency. The 100K buyout I believe can simply be reduced to an an extra 100K in Joe Ryan's pocket. Joe Ryan's salary in 2027 will basically depend on his performance in 2026 and the historical framework of the raises from Arb 2 to Arb 3.

Ladies and Gentleman. Please welcome to the stage... the short side platooners,.. Ryan Jeffers, Luke Keaschall and Austin Martin.

This is a really important point you are making. They are probably a little pot committed right now. They are going for it. They've spent a large chunk of the money they supposedly have to spend. Bell and Caratini is the game plan. Trading Ryan to the Giants for Eldridge now makes Bell at 7M almost unnecessary. Regardless of what I think they should have done. The time to start heading down that path was before they signed Bell. Now that Bell and Caratini are in the yard. Any remaining moves this off-season need to be in support of those moves and the direction they are trying to go in 2026.

I am optimistic about our rotation. With Ryan, Lopez, Ober, and multiple options with what appears to be very good stuff. I think the rotation can keep us in ball games, where offensive improvement can win us games. The Pirates are looking at a strong rotation and there is reason to hope in Pittsburgh because of that rotation. The Rangers just acquired McKenzie Gore to give them a strong rotation. It provides the Rangers fans a reason to hope in 2026. The Reds rotation looks pretty solid... the offense is where they need to pick it up. If I squint... Yes I'm squinting. I can see the starting staff serving as justification for this attempt to go for it in 2026. However, the bullpens are going to erase some of that optimism that the starting staffs provide for the Rangers, Pirates, Reds and Twins. Here's the thing though. You need to cover approximately 1440 Innings during the course of a season. About 600 of those innings are covered by relievers. Focusing on a closer and a couple of set up guys isn't going to be enough. A strong starting rotation only gets you a little over half way there. So with a bullpen that has the potential to negate starting optimism. This thing is going to turn right back to the offense being the thing that needs to bring it home. The Rangers, the Pirates, The Reds and our Twins will need an offense that can provide some cushion for questionable bullpens that are works in progress and still needing experimentation to get right. The bullpen and the offensive questions suggest to me... that this off-season is the perfect time to do a little restructure. That's just one reason... however, the biggest reason that this off-season is the perfect time do a little reset is this: The Twins are going to have to transition to a different model eventually. It needs to be done today or it will need to be done tomorrow but it needs to be done. With the bullpen and offensive questions. Now seems to be the perfect time to transition into a Milwaukee, Cleveland type model. I get push back when I say that the Twins operate more like Philadelphia than they operate like Milwaukee does. They need to transition from trying to be Philadelphia with significantly less money to work with... to trying to be a Milwaukee with more money to work with. This transition could start right now. Flood the the roster with youth in 2026. Cash in Joe Ryan's trade value at his highest value. Trade Jeffers before he walks for nothing like the Brewers traded Peralta before he walks for nothing. Land a young SS and a young 1B to add to the future of this franchise. This transition has to happen. The budget is why it has to happen. I'm not going to wait around for a new owner to come in and start spending 200 million on payroll. It's not going to happen... I don't care if Musk or Bezos buys the team. The Twins will never be at payroll range where they can comfortably land big fish in free agency. Unless they are able to consistently produce affordable young talent in numbers. Free Agency will never be our friend because the lack of affordable young talent will continually eat the budget space leaving our free agent shopping to the... not moving the needle that much aisle". If they traded Joe Ryan for a young 1B. They wouldn't need Bell, If they punted the catcher position. A couple of defensive guys cheap. They wouldn't need Caratini or Jeffers. That's 14 million to spend on a bigger free agent. Add the 12 million due Ryan and Jeffers and they have 26 million to spend on a better class of free agent and payroll is still around 100 million. If payroll climbs back to let's say 130 million... Now you can spend 56 million on free agents. Starting the transition right now. Whatever happens in 2026... happens but staffing in 2027 will be a little less daunting because we will have some additional position player holes filled by some young players stepping up in 2026. Some won't... Some will. Add a couple more Keaschall type young players to the mix and you have less holes... less question marks. Our young pitchers getting some experience some succeeding... some failing but fewer question marks and a more concise shopping list. We could get this thing down to a few holes for the 2027 roster and 50 million to spend. The Brewers and Cleveland will not be able to keep up with that. We can do it better then them. We will never be able to do what Philadelphia does... better than they do it.., Never. We can't make free agency work for us unless we make development work for us. The transition has to happen at some point. No better time then the present.

A bullpen move. At Last. Thank You

The Twins are going for it. We must prepare for the possibility. 😉

Understood. I'm just stamping out fires big or small when I see them so I focused on this specific part of your article. Everybody wants to focus on all these left handed hitters like it's a problem that needs to be addressed. The Twins should not waste a roster spot trying to counter balance this thing. They need to focus on hitters period and if you have to choose what side of the advantage to play. They should play the side that has 72% of the volume. In other words... more left handers. The math is simple. 72% will produce 3 to 1 more than 28%. In regards to Outman... my stance is the same as it was when they acquired him. If he is merely a two month rental during a lost season in 2025. We will have wasted Brock Stewart. No matter the trade value of Brock Stewart, no matter the injury history of Brock Stewart. Brock Stewart when healthy would have a role in our 2026 bullpen. The trade to the Dodgers is simply GIVING Brock Stewart to the Dodgers if James Outman is just a two month rental during a year when they are competing for lottery balls in the draft. It doesn't matter what I think of Outman or any of us think of Outman... The front office made the deal. They must think he is worth the shot at resuscitation. If they don't... they gave Brock Stewart away. As for his role in 2026... I don't know... But, if they think they can resuscitate him then they have to allow him to compete and show that he can breathe on his own. If Outman is just viewed as some guy that they DON'T want to play or it hurts the team... then he would have no business on this roster. However... that will just renew my concern of why they NEEDED to part with Brock Stewart at all? Outman doesn't need to be Kyle Garlick to justify his existence. Kyle Garlick couldn't justify his own existence being the lefty masher that he was. Outman needs to be better than the other Twins options for a 26 man spot. If the Twins don't believe that he can be that... just toss his body on the scrap heap right now and move on and go shopping for a Brock Stewart.

Left handed hitters facing right handed pitchers is a statistical platoon advantage that can be applied 72% of the time. It's a platoon advantage that is almost as prominent as the statistical platoon disadvantage of left handed hitters facing left handed pitching that occurs 28% of the time. Every time you make roster decisions to address the 28%... you have to toss the 72% out the window. If anyone feels that we have too many left handed hitters. That is a problem that will help you 72% of the time. I repeat... it's a problem that will help you 72% of the time. Left handed hitters facing right handed pitchers produced a collective .747 OPS in 2025. Right handed hitters vs right handed pitching produced a .703 OPS in 2025. It will help you you 72%. It is the most productive configuration of all platoon splits and you have to toss it aside because we are scared of the minority 28% split. At some point... the constant worry over left handed hitters just becomes a form of OCD with no statistical support. If the Twins short side platoon Austin Martin. You can just cut Austin Martin now. He will have absolutely no future value to the Twins.

That is true but... well... his arrival is imminent and I can't wait for them. 😉

Interesting. If this is the conversation that the Twins had with Jeffers. At face value. It means Jeffers and Caratini are the tandem. We invested 7 million in a catcher to play 62 games or less wearing the tools of ignorance. If they both remain healthy through spring training. Alex Jackson will be DFA'd and make 1.35 million playing for St. Paul after he goes unclaimed. Resulting in 15 million total invested in the catcher position. If payroll doesn't rise beyond 100 million this year. The Twins will be committing the largest percentage of their total budget than any of the 30 teams by a fairly large margin. Some of that direct investment into catching can be mitigated by having Caratini play 1B or DH on occasion therefore increasing his playing time. But 1st Base and DH already has 12.5 million invested into those positions between Bell, Larnach and Clemens. Some of that 1B and DH investment can be mitigated by having Larnach play OF but the Twins have Buxton, Wallner, Martin, Outman, Roden, Erod, GG and Walker Jenkins to play OF. Leaving out Clemens for the moment... In total... Jeffers, Caratini, Bell and Larnach will add up to approximately 24 million and account for 24 percent of the 100 million budget. In addition: 50 million of the budget will account for Lopez, Ryan and Ober, Buxton and Lewis. This takes care of 3 starting pitcher slots, DH, C, 1B, 3B and CF. This leaves 26 million to cover 17 positions on the 26 man roster. That's 2 SP arms for the rotation. 8 bullpen arms (the entire bullpen). Plus primary playing time spots at 2B, SS, LF, RF and three other roster spots that will be needed when injuries and rest are needed. 26 divided by 17 is 1.52 Million per on Average and this very close what we will be paying Jackson to play in St. Paul. I'm going to get my wish. I wanted the number of pre-arb players increased. It is going to be increased.