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Everything posted by Riverbrian
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Roughing out September transactions
Riverbrian replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
On the pinch hit of Farmer last night. I believe it was a bad move but it isn't out of the ordinary across baseball. I assume that Rocco was aware of the lefty in the bullpen, I assume that he even knew it was Smith in the bullpen and I assume that he was aware that Wallner is on-deck so I assume that Rocco knew Bochy would bring out the lefty when Julien was announced as a pinch hitter because that would be a little left handed stack. So therefore... the only final assumption that I can make is. Rocco would rather Vazquez face Smith than Farmer facing LeClerc. If that is correct and it might be. My question would be... why didn't he use Gallo instead of Julien for the role of sacrificial lamb? The only assumption that I can make on that. Rocco doesn't think Gallo is scary enough to draw out Smith meaning Bochy just stays with LeClerc and Gallo just strikes out because that is what Gallo does. Two outs and a tying run on 2nd. A single is needed and Gallo is just plain low percentage on the hitting a single scale. Now if that's the case... and it just might be. Gallo is getting pretty close to useless on this roster. Personally... I would have left Farmer to face LeClerc and make Bochy bring the lefties Smith and Chapman to face the right handed hitting gauntlet that was still in place (minus Kepler for Luplow) for the 9th. Plus by burning Julien and Vazquez in the same plate appearance with Kepler already in the game. If we get that single to tie up the game. Only Gallo is left on the bench for extra innings. So... Yeah... I think it was a questionable move.- 43 replies
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Roughing out September transactions
Riverbrian replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Disclaimer: I'm not anti-platoon. I understand the benefit of a platoon. I'm against the strict usage of it. I agree with you... I've been singing this same song for awhile now. I won't go to the point of calling it negligent or malpractice since the Twins are not alone but yeah... I have the same concerns that you do. Kirilloff, Julien and Wallner can't hit lefties. Well of course they can't... they don't get to face them. It's a self fulling prophecy. Ryan Jeffers? He couldn't hit right handers last year. This year... he is crushing right handers and it's lefties that he can't hit. Who is Ryan Jeffers... What will Ryan Jeffers be in the future? Jeffers can be what you let him be. Kirilloff can be what you let him be. I believe that the early months of the season should be spent gathering data. If you want to take the data gathered for the stretch run and get aggressive with a platoon... fine by me. Because by that time the players will have told you who should platoon and who shouldn't and you are set up for the stretch run. Platooning a rookie out of the gate. That's just a good way to guarantee that they won't be better than Joc Pederson.- 43 replies
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Gallo fell... It happens. I have no problem with Gallo. Solano... I wouldn't be able to explain for the life of me.
- 62 replies
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- dallas keuchel
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Roughing out September transactions
Riverbrian replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I agree but I fear that the die has been cast. They can't starve Kirilloff and Julien of AB's against lefty pitchers during the season and then start feeding them a diet of leftys during the playoffs. The best we can hope for is to not pinch hit too soon. Make the moves late in games. I don't want to see Farmer pinch hit for Julien in the 6th so Farmer has to face the right handed closer in the 9th. I'd rather that they keep their options until the 8th or 9th. Pinch Hitting, Pinch Running, Defensive replacements can be made at that point.- 43 replies
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IMO... This is accurate. All year long. Youth has out performed the vets. However... I would like to hat tip to a vet. Dallas Keuchel deserves it.
- 62 replies
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- dallas keuchel
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I'm not afraid of any team in a 3 games series and at the same time... I'm afraid of them all. The Rays will figure out which arms to throw. Yes they are a little light on the traditional starter side but they have plenty of arms to utilize and they will utilize them. On Offense... There have plenty of hitters who can hit the ball. They were never built around a superstar so if there is one team equipped to lose a super star... This is that team. Let's see who we face and let's go face them.
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- eduoard julien
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Roughing out September transactions
Riverbrian replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
With no injuries (That won't be the case). This projection is a combination of what I think should happen and how the Twins typically operate. Position Players 14 - Pitchers 12 Starting Rotation: Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Maeda One of these 5 will take an innings eater position in case innings need to be eaten. Rocco will rotate 4. The 4 starters, Game One, Two, Three and Four and the innings eater positions are yet to be determined. Lets see how September goes. Let's see who we match up with. I still see this as open competition still to be determined because there isn't much separation for that #1 spot between all 5. Pen: Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Pagan, Floro, 6th spot to (Stewart or Alcala - Who's healthy?) Stewart gets high leverage if healthy - Alcala gets low leverage if healthy and Stewart is not healthy... If neither are healthy? IDK... It would have to be yet to be determined. Balazovic? Winder? Who is going to hang zeroes the most consistently in September. 7th Spot to Moran, Headrick or Kuechel. Twins will want another lefty to deploy out of the pen. Moran will get a chance to reclaim this spot. If he can't... Kuechel is currently given a chance to carve out a role. Headrick if all else fails. Especially if we draw Houston or Texas... Think Tucker, Alveraz, Seager and Lowe. If we draw the Mariners or Jays... That extra lefty may not be a big deal. Offense: Gone are Gallo and Gordon if the rest are healthy. Gallo will need an injury to make the roster. There is a possibility that Gordon will take Castro's spot in an attempt to hang on to Gordon. Castro has an option. I give it to Castro because he has been a fantastic base runner and he is a solid defensive replacement talent almost everywhere and Rocco will pinch hit to create the need for this type of player. Because the final open position will be utilized in late innings. Castro is a must so there is no spot for Gordon. Sorry Nick. Vs RH Julien - DH Correa - SS Kepler - RF Buxton - CF Polanco - 2B Kirilloff 1B Lewis - 3B Wallner - LF Jeffers - C Vazquez, Solano, Farmer, Taylor, Castro VS LH Lewis needs to play LF... If Lewis in LF isn't a consideration. It should be damn it but if he isn't. Then A. Castro starts in LF and Farmer is relegated to a defensive replacement for the entire playoffs and we don't have a decent pinch running option. B. Buxton plays CF for the entire playoffs. Taylor moves to LF, Farmer to 2B and Polanco to DH. Solano - 1B Polanco - 2B Correa - SS Buxton - DH (I can't see Buxton CF every day... I'll take him in CF against RH pitchers as a compromise) Lewis - LF Kepler - RF Jeffers - C Farmer - 3B Taylor - CF Vazquez, Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner, Castro Possible 1st round opponent considerations: Orioles and Rays will fight for #1 and #4. Twins will be the #3 seed with #2 a possibility. Our Twins haven't had a big 10 game win streak yet... Maybe it's coming but until it comes... Let's focus on #3 seed which will host the 6th seed. I believe the 6th Seed will go to one of these 4 teams. Rangers, Astros, Mariners and Blue Jays. Blue Jays: One lefty starter Ryu with Kikuchi to the Pen. Kikuchi in the pen gives them 3 lefties in the that pen and they will deploy those lefties early because of our issues against left handers (Mayza, Cabrera and Kikuchi) hoping to get Farmer and Solano types into the game for the right hand handed late inning contingent of Romano, Hicks and Garcia. And... And... Because of our issues against left handers... I could see them throwing Ryu game one followed by Gausman and Berrios. Against the Blue Jays... the importance of Correa and Buxton playing well has to be obvious to all. We will have to hit left handers early in the game. Side note to Rocco: I'd personally love to see Kirilloff, Wallner, and Julien get some more extended looks at left handers in September because you can't paint yourself into the corner of having nobody to pinch hit for Farmer against Romano after you pinch hit Farmer for Julien in the 6th inning. Schneider is going to try to draw them out. Rangers: One starting lefthander in Montgomery, Scherzer will get game one if available. Monty #2. Gray and Dunning compete for #3 and #4. Lefty Heaney to the pen to join Smith, Chapman, Burke and Perez for a possible total of 5 lefties out of the pen. Currently Smith and Chapman are the main guys in the bullpen. If they maintain that status... they can lefty us for 3 games. Gonna need Buxton and Correa and Lewis to play like they are capable of playing. Actually... The vets will have to bring us home. All of them because they will be coming from the port side. Mariners: All Young Right Handed Rotation. A couple of decent lefties in the pen that will be deployed early. All right handed Late inning relievers. They only have a couple of cards to play. Deploy the VS RH Lineup and let it rock. Key Moment pinch hit considerations only. Astros: One Lefty Starter in Framber. No Lefties in the Bullpen. We just got to out hit and out pitch them. Get some friendly bloops, catch some line drives, get the umpire calls to go our way at key moments. Easy Peasy.- 43 replies
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I got a phone call from an old friend that I had not spoken with in maybe a decade just as the bottom of the 8th was getting underway. One ear on the conversation... one eye on the game. Old Friend: It's good to talk to ya... I think the last time I spoke with you was back at Mike's graduation party. Me: I know... what a pleasant surprise to hear from you. We really got some catching up to do. How is Mikey doing? He must be what... 30 Now. Old Friend: He's doing great... he's getting himself together. The Ankle Monitor comes off next year with continued good behavior. Me: Ankle Bracelet? Did he get in some kind of... (Wallner hits a Rocket off the RF Wall)... Holy... Wow... Atta Boy Matt. Old Friend: Matt? You Meant Mikey... Mike Right? My boys name is Mike. Me: No No... I'm watching the Twins right now... Matt Wallner just hit one a million miles an hour off the wall... I think it left a dent in the wall. Old Friend: You have always liked your Twins. I see that hasn't changed. Me: I still do and always will... you know me. So... How are you and Tammy? Old Friend: Well... We got divorced a couple of years ago. Me: Really? (Correa rips a double)... Yessssss!!! Old Friend: I don't know... if it's a Yes... I still care for her but you know how it is... these things happen. She is happier now. Me: You two were really close so it's kinda surprising. Old Friend: After the house fire burned everything we owned to the ground... Things got kind of stressful for us. Me: House fire? What? Old Friend: Yeah... Mikey had a bad day... came home and set the house on fire. That's why he was in prison and wearing that ankle bracelet. (Jeffers hits the home run) Me: Boom! It's Gone! Old Friend: Yep... Gone... Yes... Big Explosion... We were lucky to get out alive.
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This is in my head now. Your fault... Thank you
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It's really easy for me to say... go acquire someone. It always takes two to tango. I have no idea who the other clubs are asking for. I do consider no addition worse than failing with the additions that you do acquire... However... if the ask is too high... it's too high. I have already forgiven the front office for standing still this trade deadline with the simple assumption that they made some phone calls instead of the assumption that they didn't try at all. But Yeah... Cue the Kings of Leon... We could "Use Somebody". 😎
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- dylan floro
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All businesses have a budget that they must adhere to... however... what you are suggesting doesn't make sense to me. This would be a bad example but I'm the king of bad examples. If you buy a Brand New Ford Explorer for 50 Grand but can't afford the maintenance after you drop the 50K. You should have probably bought a Kia Seltos for 30 Grand and kept your SUV serviced and running at tip top shape. I can't imagine a professionally run front office painting themselves into a corner like that.
- 77 replies
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Buyers Buy and Sellers Sell Doing neither is standing still. We were buyers who did not buy. I wanted offensive help... Nick wanted Bullpen help. The difference doesn't matter to me. Neither areas were addressed. The Twins rolled right past the last chance to improve the team with outside help. Last year... they were buyers who bought. They did what they were supposed to do. I agree with the article. This year was worse.
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Ok... So he throws this 6th. Then he brings in a bullpen arm. Now what happens? No guarantees what happens after that... nor is there a guarantee what happens with Ober in the 6th. It's baseball. Milwaukee strung some soft stuff together and a crooked number went on the scoreboard. The ability of Floro? We will see. I'll always contend that you can't hide anyone in the bullpen. He's on the roster so his number will be called upon and it was. Hindsight says it was a mistake. At the time... it was a decision that didn't work out without the benefit of hindsight and none of us know if our alternate suggestions would have worked out.
- 74 replies
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- dylan floro
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Rocco pulled Ober after 5 with a 3-2 lead. A move like that is not out of this world out of the ordinary. He has a fresh bullpen and a healthy starter to manage through the rest of the season and playoffs. In my opinion, this is not something to get overly upset about. In the other dugout... Counsell pulled Miley after 5 after 89 pitches. The Big News in this game was Julien playing 1B!!! The World is still spinning this morning. Let's see what today brings.
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The Twins Must Use Byron Buxton in Center Field
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Agreed. However... Buxton will be playing regardless so if he isn't going to hit... It's better he doesn't hit in CF so someone else can actually hit in the DH spot.- 47 replies
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The Change Driving Max Kepler's Heater
Riverbrian replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I won't use the popular phrase "Too Little Too Late". In this case... I'll have to modify it to "Quite a Bit Too Late". It took him 2.5 years to figure this out... if he has indeed figured it out. I love watching him play right now but for 2.5 years... I didn't. -
The Twins Must Use Byron Buxton in Center Field
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I didn't read the article but I read the title And I agree with the title without any other details necessary. Buxton in CF makes the team instantly and significantly better.- 47 replies
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I don't know near enough about the variety of metrics that clubs use. What I do assume quite confidently: 1. Metrics are valuable - I don't care what industry you are in... you better know your numbers. 2. Your competition is using metrics which will disguise that value. The value of metrics is more noticeable when you stop using them compared to your peers who are using them. When they are all using them the playing field is level. 3. The more metrics you pour into the equation the more homogenized the results become because the total value of Player Bob is going to reside closer to the middle of everyone after the metrics tell you he is good at this and not good at this. 4. You always need a good sample size.
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It's like they want Joey Gallo to provide his style of offense for the team while at the same time, they would like the pitching staff to turn every hitter they face into a Joey Gallo. 😎
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The emphasis of Strikeouts by pitchers and the de-emphasis of strikeouts by hitters... always leaves me scratching my head. 😎
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Is It Time to Worry About Jhoan Duran?
Riverbrian replied to Matthew Taylor's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Every Team... Every Player... Every Year -
Jorge Polanco’s Twins Tenure is Approaching an End
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I know you addressed jorgenswest but I can't help myself. That isn't what he said. If Polanco gets hurt. Lee for example will get his chance because of the depth he is referring to. A healthy Farmer all year doesn't provide Lee with that chance. He just stays and under performs Polanco and maybe even under performs Lee. Polanco is better than Farmer. Polanco and Lee is better than Farmer. Full disclosure... I don't understand the discussion. I'm picking up the Polanco option. -
Maybe... I don't spend much time looking at defensive stats so I can't or won't argue. Although... I'm not one to trust the small sample defensive metrics available to us. However... if Vazquez is the better fielding catcher... OK... but in the end, it doesn't matter much to me. The offensive difference was/is enormous and we went through a long stretch where our offense was near the bottom if not at the very bottom. We needed offense much more than we needed defense at the time and still do. They needed to adjust to this acute need and did not. I get the defensive importance of the catcher position. A catcher is so much more. They frame, they call pitches. I understand the nature of the position is going to produce other considerations when it comes to defensive value but, I don't see pitchers getting lit up because Jeffers is behind the dish.
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- ryan jeffers
- joey gallo
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If I could take my concerns throw it in a pot and simmer it down to one dish and throw it on the plate for consumption... This would be it. The lack of adjustment. We were dying for offense but yet didn't even make a significant playing time adjustment at the catcher position to reflect this crippling need for offense in June. I'm sure they have framing data and other things to consider but we needed offense in the worst way and we still need bats in my opinion. The season started with a 66/33 split in favor of Vazquez. Jeffers hit the ball, Vazquez did not. They have adjusted to a 50/50 so progress I guess but I don't understand why the ratio wasn't reversed to 66/33 in favor of Jeffers. This type of adjustment was in house. It wouldn't require the clearing of space on the roster to try someone else. If Jeffers goes into a deep funk... they can always reverse back. It certainly wasn't going to solve our overall offensive woes at the time because we are only talking about every third baseball game but it was a simple adjustment in the right direction. Yep... The lack of adjustment, slowness to react is where my finger points. With that said. Our Playoff roster is here. Let's get them ready. They are who we got. They can do this.
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