Whammy

I know this is absurd, but why not be absurd.... Castillo AND Gray

No reason for Cleveland not to trade Ramirez at this point. They might as well maximize value with his remaining 3 years left (the last two are inexpensive options of 11m & 13m).

We've come to my first major disagreement with your rankings. On the open market I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that Berrios would get more in return than Kepler. If we fast forward a year when Jose's service time is cut in half and we still have 3 or 4 more years of Kep, that might change, but I can't get on board with 2 years of Jose being less valuable than (insert any number here) years of Kepler And I like Kep Also, I think there should be a little "spiff" in your rankings for the fact that the team has exclusive negotiating rights with a player while he's still in arb

It's like the Rays have an internal rule to never let a player reach their final year of arbitration, which, to be honest, is a pretty interesting concept if you're disciplined enough to do it.

MLB Needs to grab the bull by the horns and figure out this streaming thing. The people that are in control of the FS(insert geography here) broadcast situation, which is not MLB in this case have, no incentive to act in the best interest of fans. They treat streaming rights as a 4 month hot potato sold to the highest bidder and the fans who are just trying to do the right (legal) thing are the ones who get hosed. Too much more of this and more and more people will just deal with the moral issues of pirating the broadcast, since it feels like they've been pirating our ability to watch baseball for two years now.

Re: Jeffers I agree with the poster about top 3 (or maybe 4), because of the reasons he laid out. Some people had him as high as 6 last offseason, and while I agree a 26 game sample isn't enough to tell us much about his offense, what we saw from him as a catcher is less reliant on small sample size flukes. The above average defense, the team showing very high confidence in him, and the small sample of good offense in MLB is enough for me to push him above Larnach for sure.

Jeffers is still technically a prospect right (ie. Rookie of the Year eligible)

Bailey Ober strikes me as exactly the type of guy a team will take a flyer on. Then release him in Spring Training and have him go to another team for a couple weeks... Rinse and repeat until he makes it through waivers and ends up at someone's AAA affiliate. Exactly the thing an oft-injured player needs. Relentless instability

Worth noting. If the season gets shortened, that $125M would be reduced proportionally. So while they ARE guaranteed contracts, the full amount wouldn't be owed. For example: The Twins were only on the hook for $52M in payroll in 2020. I know people know this, but I feel like it gets a little ignored in the thought process of "how much will the Twins spend on payroll in 2021"

I thought he was like 48% this year

I posted this in a different thread, but this looks to be a better spot for it.... Sorry for double posting. I feel like there are 9 distinct scenarios – 3 levels of potential payroll (90M, 110M, 130M) & 3 potential playoff formats (Like LAST year, like THIS year, like this year but more advantage to the best teams). Not to even mention 2021 season length. There are several things I’d do regardless of the scenario: Say goodbye to Rosario Say goodbye Marwin Listen to Offers for Sano (not expecting much, so he stays around) Listen to Offers for Garver (I’m not looking to get rid of him, but if some team(s) value him near 2019 level, I’m willing to deal from a position of strength) With all of our likely existing 2021 payroll commitments we are around $75M, so regardless of the playoff scenarios if we’re looking at a $90M payroll, I’d say it’s likely Cruz is gone, and the biggest move might be bringing Odo back on a 1-year make good deal. Besides that I’d spend $5-6M total on two players 1) veteran back infielder (maybe Adrianza), 2) Veteran right handed 4th OF that you have no problem playing center. Then I’m filling the rest of the roster with near-minimum pre arb guys (Rooker, Kirilloff, Dobnak, Smeltzer, RP, RP) – That puts us around 90M If we’re in that $110M range, then I start to alter my strategy depending on the playoffs (and to a lesser extent, the length of the season) With 2019 Style Playoffs: Bring Cruz back (1yr/15), Pay Rogers $5M in arb, Say goodbye to Romo, Odo (1yr/8), Bailey (1yr/4), Splurge a little on the 4th OF (1yr/6), Get a backup IF. With 2020 Style Playoffs: Sign Bauer (1yr/30). Everything else (besides that 4th OF spot) gets filled in house with pre-arb guys. The reason these are so different is because having 8 playoff teams gives the Twins the flexibility to take some lumps by giving innings/AB to the youth movement (Kirilloff, Rooker, Larnach, Duran, Balazovich, Lewis). Find out over the course of the season who’s ready for the big time then roll into the playoffs knowing that answer and having at least Bauer, Maeda, Berrios, and Paneda as your rotation. As much as I think the 2020 style of playoffs is a crapshoot, that would likely be an exceedingly fun regular season. 130M range (not likely IMO): Add Cruz to the “2020 style playoffs” above (Bauer), spend a little more on the 4th OF, and get a legit backup IF. The main difference between the playoff styles is that if the league goes 2020 style (likely IMO), I’m still ushering in the youth movement, but it’s just a little dialed back with Cruz as my DH anchor, and I’m giving Lewis some more time in the minors to work on 3B.

I heard something interesting today... The ratings for the first round of playoffs really weren't that good. While I've been working under the assumption that playoff expansion beyond 5 and likely to 8 was inevitable, that little nugget gave me some pause.

"over" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here

I'm embarrassed to say, I completely forgot Gordon existed. I did a pretty detailed breakdown in another thread of different strategies relating to payroll options and playoff options. Most of those scenarios I had us signing an inexpensive utility IF. Mainly because, like I said, I forgot Gordon even existed.

I love offseason speculation. Love it. But here's where I'm struggling with this offseason. There are two MAJOR questions that we don't have answers to, that would significantly alter my strategy. 1) Payroll - 90M? 140M? Normally I have a pretty good gauge of where they SHOULD be and can work from that. But honestly, at this point, I have no idea. And, frankly, they probably don't have a great idea either. 2) Playoffs? Back to 5, with the one game WC game? Stay at 8? If we stay at 8, are the 8 teams roughly on the same playing field like this year, or are there big advantages to being a high seed? Because if the playoffs are like this year except with ta longer season, I'm willing to give the youth movement a shot, because I have more room for error (and then I spend money on one high end starter). But if it goes back to the way it was before, I probably rely on more veterans, at least at the start of the season.

Per my unscientific calculations, the Twins have $79M in firm and likely commitments next season, with some Arb guesses by me. Garver – 1.0 Jeffers – 0.5 Donaldson – 21.0 Polanco – 4.3 Arraez – 0.5 Sano – 11.0 Kepler – 6.5 Buxton – 4.0 Maeda – 3.0 (officially, but likely much higher with incentives) Berrios – 6.0 Pineda – 10.0 Rogers – 5.0 (included, but…. Are we sure?) Duffey – 3.0 Wisler – 1.5 Stashak – 0.0 Alcala – 0.5 Thielbar – 0.5 Not listed and not included in the total… Dobnak and Smeltzer Romo’s option declined and Rosario not offered Arb. 26-man spots that still need filling… SP SP RP RP LF 4th OF IF Util DH Perhaps because it’s an easy connection to make and perhaps because where there’s smoke there’s fire, Bauer has been link as a possible MN FA. He’s also said in the past (which might have changed) that he’s going to do a bunch of 1-year contracts. So, would you be up for signing Bauer to a 1/30 contract? It likely means no Nelson Cruz. And likely means no substantial free agent additions (maybe a $5M-ish RP), but I feel like we can fill most of the rest of those 26-man spots with players already in the organization. SP – Bauer SP – Dobnak (or some Bailey-esque FA signing) RP – Internal RP – Internal LF – Kirilloff 4th OF – Wade/Cave/Larnach IF - ?? Blankhorn Util - ?? DH – Rooker/Sano/Larnach That puts us around $120M in likely commitments, including about $7M for incentives likely to be attained by Maeda Play ball!

Couldn't we technically just add him to the 60 man squad (whatever official name it has) and then trade him?

Of course nearly everyone wants Bauer. Even the "not in this strange year" crowd has a price so low that they couldn't resist. And conversely, the "do whatever it takes" crowd has a price so high that they just wouldn't go there. The Reds would lose out on the compensatory pick when he walks after rejecting the QO, so they aren't going to accept anything less than what they view as being the value of the 30th overall draft pick. So. What's your offer? I'd go as high as Rooker and Cavaco. It stings. But it's worth it to me.

I fail to see how this would be a second class championship. If anything this year's playoffs will be harder than ever before. The ONLY caveat is the lack of fans has some impact, but not enough to call it second class in my opinion.

I think about this thread often

Side Note: Congrats to ESPN for somehow managing to not write a single word about the Twins in this season prediction article, in spite of 28 of the 30 experts predicting the Twins make the playoffs (24 of them by winning the central) and 3 of them predicting the Twins make the World Series. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29474430/2020-mlb-season-expert-predictions-division-picks-playoff-field-world-series-winner

Maybe it's just the homer in me, but doesn't that read like a Poor Man's version of the Twins staff?

Family hailed from Cantstayondafield, Russia

If you were to attempt to build in a playing time projection, what do you think the best way is?

Maybe is doesn't make sense to do percentiles for health, but seems like a really important missing component and certainly the variable that leads the the most inaccuracy in the numbers. Seems like they should try to incorporate Very Bad/Bad/Normal/Good/Very Good health variables into the system. Where "normal" their current baseline and you dial up or down inning/games player from there.