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Whammy

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Everything posted by Whammy

  1. Whammy
    I also always feel like I should say... I like Falvey and I think he's a good GM/Whatever his new title is. But if you're a new owner and 2024 happened, then you miss the playoffs in 2025, it seems like you'd sack the top dude.
  2. Whammy
    Every time this topic comes up I like to mention that Falvey's motivations might not align with typical Twins Fans' motivations (mix of current success and future outlook) If I was a betting man, anything less than the playoff this year and new ownership will not retain Falvey. He's not a "sell the farm" kind of guy but if he can make a big improvement to 2025 (Cease would be that) for a package that might hurt a little, but is probably fair, then I wouldn't be surprised if he did it.
  3. Whammy
    Not sure what it was back then, but it's more than that now. Time to have some fun with 99th percentile projections
  4. Whammy
    A couple years ago I really dug into the individual players numbers. Every other number they publish (I think it was 10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentile, at the time) is far more interesting than the 50th percentile projection.
  5. Whammy
    Quick question about DRA- League-wide, by definition, the average is 100, but what is the historic and recent breakdown of SP vs RP? My gut tells me that the average for a RP would be something like 98 and a SP something like 102, but I also don't know how some RP blowups (or positional players pitching) might sway those numbers closer to 100/100
  6. Whammy
    The "Kansas City 70 Wins" number that keeps getting bandied about was someone saying their 2024 projection, not 2025 (which PECOTA has at 81)
  7. Whammy
    Zebby and Festa are both 24 at the moment, but turn 25 before July 1 (SWR turns 25 in September). Julien, Royce, and Martin are all 25 right now. It not like they’re an old team. In 2024 they were around the 10th youngest, depending on how you track that, and our 3 oldest players on last years roster (Santana, Farmer, and Thielbar) are gone.
  8. Whammy
    I’d bump SWR up to 5. I like Keaschall as a prospect, but Sim has done it in the majors, for basically an entire year. Like if you were making a trade with another team, and said “choose between these two,” I feel like more teams would take SWR, but I could be wrong. Maybe I’d flip flop Lee and Rodriguez Hard to quibble much with the rest.
  9. Whammy
    It's not a perfect comparison, but this feels like the Varland situation from last year, a little to me. With the main difference being the length of success Sands has had in the Major League Bullpen (1+ years) compared to Varland being more like half a season by the start of 2024. The Twins, it seems, wanted to just make sure that Varland as a starter was no longer viable at the beginning of 2024, giving him a rotation spot to start the year and then keeping him stretched out when he went back to AAA, before finally realizing (I think) that Varland is better suited as a reliever. Like I said, the situations are a little different, but I could see the 2025 Twins wanting to just make sure that Cole Sands as a starter is no longer viable.
  10. Whammy
    Just a random thought since deferrals came up.... The Twins could theoretically make their free agent offers (assuming they start doing those again eventually) more appealing with some deferrals. It's a way to avoid tax obligations if the player sets up their permanent residence in a low/no tax state prior to the deferred payments starting to roll in. I think state taxes get a LITTLE overblown, but it's certainly a big deal to some people.
  11. Whammy
    The most likely reason why this would happen is because Falvey can’t feel super secure about his job, with new ownership coming in. The Twins underperforming in 2025 could very easily mean the end of Falvey’s tenure. While I support the idea of trading for Cease (or King), job security isn’t really the best reason to make a big move, though it certainly can be a big motivator.
  12. Whammy
    I can't imagine what it's like to be this type of fan. Must be exhausting.
  13. Whammy
    You quoted a very small part of my original post. I put out a trade in the Cease specific thread My thought are much more complete there
  14. Whammy
    This is precisely why I’d trade for Cease. It seems pretty clear that he available.
  15. Whammy
    I trust their pitching more at this very moment than their hitting. But I also think the crappiness of the last 50 games of last season has made people forget how good this offense looked in the first 4 months last year. I believe that spending prospect capital on a really good LF would probably have a larger regular season effect than spending that same prospect capital on a SP. But adding Cease would have an outsized positive effect on post season success (as well as helping you get there). Upgrades at LF and 1B can be more easily added at the trade deadline than a front line SP. I also want to a) take advantage of an opportunity to add an Ace at a relatively cheap cost, and b) take advantage of what looks to me like a very down year for the AL.
  16. Whammy
    Everything fell apart in the last 50 games. Post All-Star break, the offense scored the 18th most runs and the pitching was ranked 21st in runs allowed Pre All-star break those numbers were 6th and 15th respectively. It's hard for me to look at those numbers and say definitively "pitching is good. We need hitting." You're absolutely right that we've probably lost more on the hitting side (Santana and Castro) than on the pitching side, but I don't think either of those are that big of losses (other than their defense).
  17. Whammy
    Worth a reminder that the Twins scored the 10th most runs in MLB last year.
  18. Whammy
    Obviously I have no idea, but thinking about it logically, it makes sense. Why would he have any confidence regarding his job security, with a new owner, if the Twins just have a mediocre 2025? I think he's done a good job the last handful of years, but would a new owner? Probably not. Especially with the turd that was 2024 and what, to this point, has been a completely uninspiring offseason running into 2025.
  19. Whammy
    With a rotation of Cease, Lopez, Ober, and Ryan, a well regarded bullpen and a little bit of health luck from the lineup.... why not? Who's scary in the AL? Yankees got worse. Astros got worse. Cleveland got worse. Mariners and Orioles treaded water. Rangers got.... healthier.
  20. Whammy
    re: Square peg / round hole Yes. But that presumes the F.O.'s goal is what many of us are assuming it is... Limp to the regular season with a perfectly decent team. Get a new owner. If we do something in 2025, great. But otherwise focus on 2026. I think many of us are assuming that what the Twins are going to do. But what if that assumption is wrong. What if Falvey is like "screw that." What if Falvey looks at the AL and thinks "damn... that's pretty weak." And he also realizes, with a new owner, he needs to make a good first impression and his job isn't really guaranteed beyond 2025. Maybe ownership has OK'ed $140M as the payroll and Falvey is trying to maximize the chance that $140M can lead to 2025 success?
  21. Whammy
    Worth at least mentioning because I haven't seen it mentioned above, that Cease would likely (though not definitely) garner a compensatory pick if he left in free agency after 2025. That needs to be baked into what a team would give up to get him.
  22. Whammy
    The idea of getting Cease is very interesting, but the idea of including Vazquez is such a deal doesn't make a ton of sense. I realize that part of taking on Cease's $13M is getting rid of money and Vazquez is a prime candidate, but losing him leaves us pretty thin at catcher and while I have confidence that Jeffers can handle a little more workload and do a great job with the pitching staff, what happens if his incredible run of health comes to an end? Things get real scary after that. We would be a team build on pitching with nobody to catch the pitches from them. If we were to acquire Cease, I'd much rather smooth out the salaries (perhaps in a separate move with different teams) by trading Castro and Paddack. I feel like we can backfill both of those spots with competence far more easily than catcher. As for what I would give up... Any pitcher not named Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and Festa + Prielipp (who Preller might view as a high upside play) + A low minors prospect of SD's choosing in the 10-20 range + One other 25+ ranked prospect if necessary.
  23. Whammy
    It was Bailey Ober at +0.1 offensive fWAR that tripped me up. Two plate appearances. One hit... 0.1 fWAR
  24. Whammy
    Doesn’t REALLY change my point. It just doesn’t line up exactly at $6M like I thought it did. To your point earlier, it actually moves the real value of $/WAR down
  25. Whammy
    I went back and looked. That WAS just hitters. I think I just got unlucky by noticing a pitcher in the hitter stats
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