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Whammy

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Everything posted by Whammy

  1. Whammy
    This. 100% this
  2. Whammy
    I'm not a huge fan of referencing Vegas over/unders when talking about projected wins. Vegas is not setting lines where they think the results will be. They are setting the lines where they think they will get equal money on both sides.
  3. Whammy
    Wallner has had 13 months in his career with 20 or more plate appearances. In 10 of those 13 months he's had an OPS+ over 110.
  4. Whammy
    Probably true. His 50th percentile offensive outcome is probably a higher average than Larnach and a similar OPS, so mostly a wash overall. The advantage gained by Roden's defense probably offsets the known of Larnach's career health. He hasn't exactly been the picture of health, but he also hasn't really spent a ton of time on the IL. Maybe that's a little recency bias though. The 50th percentile health outcome for just about any major leaguer has to be below what Larnach has done health-wise for his career.
  5. Whammy
    I’m in the minority, but I have no problem with Outman making this team. It’s not a perfect fit of course, but he’s the type of guy that teams in the Twins situation need to take one last shot on. And if nothing else, he can be a defense first, speed guy. There’s a roll for that type of player on Major League rosters. And I wouldn’t actually want Roden filling that roll. I’d rather having him playing more often than that (on the Twins or Saints). Having Outman be the 5th OF is just fine to me. Not perfect, but fine. Larnach is the one truly blocking Rodon. I, like many others, just don’t see why he’s still a Twin. Once he was offered arbitration, it seemed inevitable, but as many have said, it just doesn’t make sense.
  6. Whammy
    I am high on Roden and low on Larnach, but if either Rodon or Gonzalez have Larnach’s career, realistically that’s probably above a 50th percentile outcome.
  7. Whammy
    What about the health of the AAA guys? Buxton played 1 less game last year (126) than Rodriguez and Jenkins’ combined totals between AA and AAA (127)
  8. Whammy
    Other than relitigating 2023 (which had completely different front office leadership), what exactly are the points trying to be made in this Gallo discussion. I feel like this tangent lost the plot about 5 posts ago.
  9. Whammy
    I challenge you to find one article or heck, even one discussion board post, where the writer refers to any of our prospects as "can't miss" You seem to be projecting your frustration at the hit rate of our top prospects onto the people that thoughtfully write about our top prospects.
  10. Whammy
    There was no sunk cost for Hendriks and Chaffin. Larnach is the real test of Sunk cost fortitude from the front office. I never really expected them to find a taker for Larnach and I didn't expect them to light $4.3M on fire, so having him on the 26 man to start the season always felt like a 90% proposition. The real test is if he stinks by the end of April or if he's just league average offensively by the start of June. That's when the real "change in roster construction philosophy articles" should come.
  11. Whammy
    We're on a baseball discussion board. I think we all look incredibly foolish. 😜
  12. Whammy
    Interesting side note: Only FOUR of our top 30 prospects in 2019 are not with a major league organization at the moment.
  13. Whammy
    I disagree with you on the value of Grade 40 prospects. I'm sure MLB is littered with former grade 40 prospects that proved the talent evaluators wrong. They aren't sexy, but if you had a bunch of grade 40 prospects, you're likely to get one solid starter and one solid contributor out of the bunch. Here's a snapshot of the Twins 2019 prospect rankings:
  14. Whammy
    The confidence with which people assert their opinions as facts will never not astound me.
  15. Whammy
    The last mock draft I saw had Lebron falling to like #13 and Minnesota taking a college pitcher. So, I'm not sure EVERYONE expects Lebron to the Twins. https://pitcherlist.com/way-too-early-2026-mlb-mock-draft/
  16. Whammy
    Yeah. Bullpens can be weird, but this is, without a doubt, the lowest expectations I have for a Twins bullpen this century. It's almost impossible to see a scenario where they are above average and it's REALLY easy to see them being one of the worst couple in the league.
  17. Whammy
    For me, #1 vs #2 vs #3 vs #4 vs #5 is completely meaningless until the playoffs. You're either one of the 5 in the rotation or you're not.
  18. Whammy
    The point of my previous post is that counting Ohl and Adams as starting pitching depth (because they DID start games) is a little bit of a stretch to me. They were starters in name only, not practice. Also, I was more commenting on Gleeman's general discussion of the topic, not your specific post about it.
  19. Whammy
    The possible difference between last year and this year is the hip injury. I think many of us assumed that the hip injury is what caused the dip in velocity, but it's possible that his velocity is just down 2-3mph and it's unrelated to the hip. If we assume for a second that is the case, then it's possible his numbers trend better now that he's not dealing with the hip injury. Said a different way, if you attribute half of Ober's worse results in 2025 to the hip and the other half to a decrease in velocity, even if he doesn't get the velocity back, we could see better results than 2025 (though very unlikely as good as 2023/24). Yes. I'm currently wearing my rose-colored glasses.
  20. Whammy
    In my opinion, Gleeman tends to overstate this a bit. It's undoubtably true, but I suspect that the 7 pitcher thing would apply to the vast vast majority of MLB teams. So in that way, by continually mentioning it (on the podcast or in print) he's exaggerating it in respect to how it affects the Twins compared to others. I think the much more interesting data point would be how many starting pitchers get used for more than 2 starts in a given season. Openers throw a little bit of a wrench in how clean that data is, but in my opinion that type of analysis is more meaningful to what we are talking about. There are ALWAYS going to be spot starters coming up from AAA for one reason or another (illness, double headers, etc), but I don't really care about those very much. How many guys are going to be part of your regular rotation over the course of a season? THAT is what I care about. And I suspect the Twins, over the last decade, use an above average number in a given season.
  21. Whammy
    I'm fine with Ober attempting to get by on veteran guile for now. In my mind, he's in the rotation this year until he proves that he can't make it work at 89mph. In spring training so far, he has. That probably won't continue, but I can't cut Ober from the rotation based on expected results over actual results If he makes it work, then we reassess after the season. If he doesn't make it work (like many expect), then we make some changes in season. I do acknowledge that this might mean bringing in Giolito makes more sense. Preparing for an expected outcome is different that assuming the expected outcome.
  22. Whammy
    I have no idea if it would be better or worse, but I wonder what the Twins run differential would be if you only counted the first 6 innings
  23. Whammy
    Molitor really is excellent. Glad we get him in the TV booth for some games this year (I'm guessing around 10) The last few years it seems to be something like: Morneau - 40% Perkins - 20% Another guy - 15% Another guy - 10% 3 other guys - 5% each (one road trip of 6/7 games) I'm guessing Molitor will be the 10/15% guy with the majority of them over the summer when Morneau is spending time with his kids.
  24. Whammy
    So you're just ignoring the more than twice as many innings he pitched for the Twins last year with a 2.02 ERA? You truly believe that if Varland was on this team he wouldn't be our best reliever? Because of 23 innings for the Jays last year?
  25. Whammy
    I think the Super 2 has been toned down a ton in the last decade or so, to the point that it rarely gets talked about any more. The mid-April deadline, however, is definitely still a thing. But it's a thing for like 28 of the 30 teams. It's disingenuous to pretend that the Twins are in some minority here. The cost-benefit of stashing a player at AAA for 1/12th of the season vs calling him up is just too large. They've tried to provide some incentives to soften that cost benefit (PPI for example), but that benefit is just too small and unlikely to be worth it. And the types of players who might get you a PPI draft pick are exactly the types of players where that 7th year has the most value.
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