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Whammy

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Everything posted by Whammy

  1. Whammy
    Some people always feel the need to balance out good news or positive vibes with bad vibes. It's just how their brain works and I'll never understand it.
  2. Whammy
    The article never actually mentions the idea of a QO, which I think was a miss by the author
  3. Whammy
    If he pitches, largely every 5th day, and has an ERA in the 4.00 range, he's going to get at least 3/50M from someone. If he pitches poor enough to only warrant 1/9M, then I'm not sure anyone on this website will be clamoring to have him back. If the FO office made him an offer today of, say.... 2/35 would he bite at that? Yeah, I bet he would. I also don't see that happening and given the likelihood of a realistic mid-market payroll going forward beyond 2025, I'm not sure that makes good financial sense, with the much less expensive options waiting in the wings.
  4. Whammy
    Either way, before he's gone, we need him to deputize another member of the pitching staff. Top 5 Candidates: Varland Pablo Zebby Duran SWR
  5. Whammy
    He's pitching great and as many people have said, you want to ride that as long as it lasts. For me, the depth and IP he provides (even if the quality dips a little) is just as valuable. Last year was a prime example of what can happen to an entire pitching staff when the injury bug hits, even just a little. We lost Disclifani before the season started which dinged our depth, then we lost Joe Ryan in August and then we were counting on guys in a pennant race that probably weren't ready. Not only did this mean the starting rotation was in rough shape but it quickly destroyed the bullpen due to overuse. At that point the entire pitching staff was compromised and when the offense also went in the tank, well, that's how you go 12-28 the last 40 (or whatever it was). Keep the depth and the hot hand. And don't worry about chasing "peak value"
  6. Whammy
    Before anyone scoffs at the idea of a QO. Check out these three guys and their seasons leading up to free agency last offseason. They all turned down QOs and got an average of about 3/60 in the free agent market (Paddack will be younger than any of them were, by the way) Severino - https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/severlu01.shtml Pivetta - https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pivetni01.shtml Manaea - https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/manaese01.shtml
  7. Whammy
    I'd much rather keep him and wish on a 2025 performance strong enough to warrant a Qualifying Offer. I can't imagine anything we would get back would be comparable in value to a comp pick and then we don't shatter team chemistry by coldly trading away a key member of the pitching staff because he's "at peak value" Bader is probably at peak value too. Should we trade him?
  8. Whammy
    Three very comparable pitchers (Severino, Pivetta, Manaea) last offseason all got qualifying offers and ending getting somewhere around 3/60 on average
  9. Whammy
    That's an odd thing to say about someone who just went 8ip, threw 110 pitches, and leads the team in innings pitched this season.
  10. Whammy
    In general I've heard Sacramento's ballpark referred to as hitter friendly. Is there actually any evidence of that? It seems that it's just gotten lumped into the "PCL Bandbox" category, but it seems to me that the most likely scenario is that the A's offense is OK and their pitching stinks. The actual factors that go into a ballpark being hitter friendly look pretty neutral to me. Elevation: 26ft above see level - Hitter unfriendly Humidity: Higher average summer humidity than most other western baseball locations. Similar to Minneapolis - Hitter unfriendly Temperature: Warm. Wamer than most in the first few months, but levels off and likely lower than 1/4 of the MLB ballparks over the summer - Hitter Neutral probably, but perhaps boosted the first few months compared to colder midwest and eastern cities. OF dimensions: The look a little smaller than average - Hitter Friendly Foul Territory dimensions: Not sure (gotta be smaller than Oakland though 🙂 )
  11. Whammy
    I don't bring up the QO to necessarily debate the pros and cons of offering it. There so much season left and things will obviously be much clearer in a few months, but IF we are going to trade Paddack, then the value of a potential QO has to be considered. That might have sounded crazy 3 weeks ago and it still might be a little crazy, but history shows us that guys with ERAs that start with "3" and are around 30, can get big money in free agency. And even if we offer it and he accepts it, we'd almost certainly be able to trade him
  12. Whammy
    Looking at who turned down QOs last season, it's not crazy to think that if Paddack maintains anything even close this level of production that we could offer (and he would turn down) a qualifying offer. The three closest comps from last offseason are: Severino - Age 31. Coming off of a good, not great season with the Mets after a half decade of injury issues. 3yrs/67M from Athletics Pivetta - Age 32. Coming off a string 4.xx ERA seasons with Boston, as a pretty reliable innings eater (he's been really good this season) - 4yrs/55M from Padres Manaea - Age 33. Similar 2024 season to Severino with the Mets, with less injury history and better peripherals. 3yr/75M from Mets. Paddack will be 30 for all of next season. Similar injury history to Severino, but probably not quite as bad (somehow). If he could keep his ERA around where it's at right now and keep around that strikeout per inning he's been flirting with for these 10 starts, then there's no reason why he wouldn't expect to get 3/60 from someone.
  13. Whammy
    10 games. 2.17 ERA since April 10th Obviously unsustainable, but that's basically a third of a season, so SOMETHING must have clicked (or he's just actually healthy).
  14. Whammy
    I'm not sure what trading Paddack really accomplishes, unless maybe it's a three team trade. If Paddack continues to pitch really well, then he definitely has value, but a team that's going to want a pitching rental isn't going to want to give up any of their remotely decent MLB hitters and Paddack isn't good enough to pry a really good hitting prospect away from a team.
  15. Whammy
    Ryan O'Hearn feels like the right level of: 1. Playing well this year (176 OPS+) 2. Decent track record (125-ish OPS+ the last three years) 3. Doesn't cost too much money ($8M in 2025) 4. No long-term commitment (free agent after this season) 5. Probably wouldn't cost too much to acquire (pitching prospect in our 10-15 range?)
  16. Whammy
    I'm sure there's a reason why Wallner has to wait until tomorrow. I'm just not seeing it. Not like we're facing a lefty.
  17. Whammy
    First of all, it's been relatively widely discussed. It probably hasn't found it's way into an official article because nobody is willing to go on the record and be like "yep... the Pohlads have been borrowing money against the Twins." Given the Pohlad's portfolio, it certainly makes sense that they might need to borrow money against a fully realized asset (the Twins) to help some of their assets that aren't performing great (Commercial Real Estate) Second of all, it shouldn't actually matter. Just like how much I owe on my mortgage doesn't dictate how much the a new buyer (and the bank that's loaning them the money) will pay for it.
  18. Whammy
    Because the Pohlads borrowed money for their other businesses and used the Twins as collateral. Every article should explicitly state this, but most don't. The debt piece is infuriating for several reasons. 1) As I said above, most articles don't mention that the Twins didn't directly generate that debt. It was a debt placed on the Twins by the Pohlad family. Essentially a reverse mortgage on a "house" that was already paid off. 2) The debt should have absolutely nothing to do with the sale of the team. It should sell for what it can sell for and then some of the proceeds from the sale can be used to pay off the Pohlad's debt. The same way, when I sell my house, the buyer isn't buying the house at market value PLUS how much I still owe on the mortgage.
  19. Whammy
    Definitely. What rain is out there, is mostly light rain. Everything scheduled for today is happening.
  20. Whammy
    That's definitely a factor and one I can't analyze. But purely from a "is it raining" perspective, they really screwed this one up.
  21. Whammy
    The Twins acting meteorologist should be fired. Calling these games two hours ago and now having the rain be about 30 minutes from being done for the night is embarrassing. It was relatively clear to see on the radar loop.
  22. Whammy
    Interesting that they announced postponement. I actually came on here (as an extremely amateur meteorologist) to say that I thought the radar was looking better and I wouldn't be surprised if they managed to get a game in tonight. I expect very little rain after 6pm. Could be that they feel like the field can't take it, but don't we always hear about the awesome drainage of Target Field?
  23. Whammy
    OOPS... used quote instead of edit
  24. Whammy
    That strange 3 city, cross country road trip is because we swapped home series with Tampa Bay. Originally, that was a home series and we would've been going to Tampa over 4th of July (right after playing in Miami). Now that turns into a 3 series homestand going into the All Star break.
  25. Whammy
    Totally. Win the first one and figure it out from there.
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