Cody Pirkl

Joe Ryan looked like a front end starter to begin the year and has slowly trended in the wrong direction throughout the summer as many analysts predicted. As the Twins bottom out it’s fair to ask: Is Joe Ryan who we thought he was? Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports A 7th-round pick taken by Tampa Bay, Joe Ryan was always an interesting prospect. Throwing his fastball as high as 70-80% of the time in the minors, he always dominated with solid ERAs, eye-popping strikeout numbers, and acceptable home run rates. Still, scouts just didn’t buy the long-term performance with Joe Ryan due to his lack of any kind of consistent secondary offerings to pair with his best pitch. As 2022 rolls on, he’s shown more and more that perhaps the league has caught up to him. Were we too quick to anoint him as a staple for the front of the rotation? When considering this question, there are a few factors we need to keep in mind. Offspeed Debut Joe Ryan was essentially a fastball-only pitcher in the minors because he could get away with it. His fastball is deceptive, and it appears that despite his numbers tailing off as the season went on, the league never really figured the pitch out. He’s thrown it three times as much as any of his other offerings and the pitch has allowed a .183 BA against and .328 slugging %. In order to maintain that effectiveness, however, Ryan has finally had to incorporate more offspeed pitches. Unfortunately, it could be going better. Ryan has allowed a .500+ SLG on every pitch but his fastball this season. As his home run issues have ballooned, the slider is typically the culprit. Having allowed nine HRs on 1,229 fastballs thrown, Ryan has allowed eight on just 431 sliders thrown. In fairness, this is the first Ryan has really had to rely on offspeed stuff, and it’s safe to still call his secondary pitches a work in progress that could easily improve. Bad Luck I hate chalking anything up to bad luck but Joe Ryan actually has dealt with quite a bit of it this season. Ryan posted a 2.28 ERA in eight starts leading up to May 21. He then missed three weeks with COVID and has since posted a 4.78 mark in 16 starts. His velocity and command were both notably lacking for some time following his absence as he was clearly hit hard by the virus considering the amount of time missed. He was due for a bit of regression, but things certainly seemed to snowball after the IL trip. Ryan also has an interesting gap in the expected results of his pitch mix versus the actual results. He’s allowed a SLG of .531 on his slider with a .368 expected SLG. His .538 SLG on his changeup is a far cry from the .443 expected mark. Even his curveball has allowed a .524 SLG compared to a .354 expected SLG. It’s hard to say what’s causing this discrepancy, but the expected stats point to Ryan being a much more effective pitcher than what his (still respectable) results have been. He’s a Rookie It’s easy to forget Joe Ryan is a rookie under control for five more seasons because the Twins have relied on him so heavily. Very rarely does a pitcher debut and provide consistent results. Many called the Twins front office out this spring for essentially hanging the hopes of the season on two pitchers with less than a year of experience (Ryan and Bailey Ober), and they turned out to be correct. While Ryan has worked out better than Ober due to the volume he’s provided, the Twins were always playing with fire. Ryan getting his feet wet to the tune of a low-4s ERA in what will probably be 140ish innings in his rookie season would typically be viewed as a massive success. Unfortunately, the Twins relied on him being a front-of-the-rotation starter. As he builds up a bigger workload and makes adjustments back to the league, it’s easy to see him building off of an up-and-down rookie season and at least providing middle-of-the-rotation value to the team in future years. In short, don’t let the Twins' disappointing end to the season affect your opinion of Joe Ryan. Whether he’s the pitcher we thought he was depends on what you were expecting. As fun as the idea was of a rookie coming up and co-leading the rotation with Sonny Gray en route to a comeback season, that was always the least likely scenario. Instead consider that Ryan has had a solid-to-good debut season, a rarity in Twins territory when it comes to pitchers. As he soars past his career highs in innings pitched, keep in mind that Joe Ryan still has a good chunk of his Twins career left to adjust and improve, and he’s got a nice foundation to build off of from his 2022 season. View full article

Some of the best relievers in baseball were awful starting pitchers which is what Lopez was up until this year. Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, etc. In terms of Twins, look at Taylor Rogers or even Griffin Jax this year. Once you take a starting pitcher, cut down their pitch mix, and add them to the bullpen where their velocity ticks up, their numbers as a starter are worthless.

Jorge Lopez was a bullpen ace, even an All Star, for Baltimore before his trade to the Twins. His numbers have been fine since coming over, but the common feeling is that Lopez has been a huge disappointment. Why could that be? Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports Jorge Lopez has posted a respectable 3.09 ERA in his 11+ innings since becoming a Twin, primarily serving as the Twins' closer. Though not the sub 2.00 ERA he posted in Baltimore, it’s difficult to expect much more results-wise from a reliever. Still, many including this author have been unimpressed and disappointed in the Twins supposed star-caliber reliever acquisition. Why might that be? The Bad Outweighs the Good Some studies have shown that human nature causes bad outcomes to carry more weight in our minds than the good. In Lopez’s case that’s a very unfortunate reality. In his twelve outings, he's allowed an earned run in only three. In two of those, Lopez was so unbelievably bad that it’s difficult to wipe away that memory. On August 13, the Twins blew a lead reminiscent of Emilio Pagan against Cleveland (He actually later got the loss). Leading 3-0, the Twins allowed a run in the 8th for Lopez to come on and blow a two-run save in tremendous fashion, his second to that point in five outings. On September 2, Lopez was even worse, allowing leadoff singles to the 8 and 9 hitters in the White Sox order in a tied game. He then went on to hit Andrew Vaughn to load the bases with one out. On the very next pitch, he barely missed yet another hit by pitch to Jose Abreu which extended the game after replay review. He was walked off later in the at bat. Is it fair to judge Lopez on just two outings? Absolutely not. But the meltdowns were simply unacceptable for Twins fans who have watched such outings 1-2 times per week all season and expected something different from a massive trade acquisition. Unfortunately, it’s going to take a very strong finish to the season to get rid of the aftertaste of the several games Lopez has already blown. Win Probability Added The general consensus has been that Lopez has hurt the team more than he’s helped since coming to the Twins despite his decent ERA. One way to tangibly measure this is to look at Win Probability Added (WPA) which looks at how much a player has positively or negatively impacted wins. In the case of Lopez, he’s had three games where he’s contributed negative value to a team win and he’s had no games in which he’s had a meaningfully positive WPA. As a whole, Lopez has accumulated -0.49 WPA thus far. Not only does this account for nearly a full loss in that time (Each team begins the game at .50), but this is the worst WPA on the Twins roster since Lopez was acquired. Yes, even worse than Emilio Pagan. In short, Lopez has fit right into this Twins bullpen, finding incredible ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Is any of this meaningful long term? Probably not. Lopez has had a few games where batted balls have found the grass as we often see with ground ball pitchers. His overall numbers are just fine for a late-inning reliever, and he hasn’t given up homers which would be the main red flag to look for. The unfortunate reality is that Lopez has dug himself a hole in the eyes of Twins fans as he joined a team whose fanbase is quite simply fed up with embarrassing late game losses and he’s added a few onto the list. The plus side is if you’re looking for a sign that Jorge Lopez joined the Twins and is now a broken pitcher, there isn’t one. The same skillset that he rode to an All Star bid earlier this summer remains completely intact in every facet aside from a few outings with poor outcomes. Furthermore, for as disappointing as he has been in the eyes of Twins fans, he’s under team control for the next two seasons, plenty of time to make good on the Twins investment. It’s hard to argue that Jorge Lopez has been disappointing so far in his Twins tenure. However, the level of disappointment may be amplified by Twins fans who have seen late heartbreaking losses play out far too many times. If Lopez continues to throw his high 90s turbo sinker and mix in his disgusting mix of offspeed options, it's hard to not see him flipping the script. View full article

His launch angle actually decreased from July though and his 13 degree launch angle in August isn't really a problem. His launch angle in all of 2020 for example was 12.1 degrees.

Appreciate it! I dug quite a bit for any change in approach but there doesn't appear to be a whole lot there. His 13 degree launch angle in August was perfectly fine and was actually lower than it was in July. The same can be said for flyball rate and pull rate, the two things you typically see increase when a hitter is only worried about homers (see Buxton).

Luis Arraez has had a tremendous season, likely earning the title of Twins MVP so far. He looked to be on track for a career year through the end of July, but then came a confusing August. What went wrong for the Twins leadoff man in the dog days of summer? In case you haven’t heard, Luis Arraez is an incredible hitter. In the era of trying to do as much damage as possible on every swing, Arraez waits out opposing pitchers and is just as happy to take a walk or squeak an opposite-field grounder through the hole as he is to drive the ball over the fence. In addition to how fun it is to watch his unique style, Arraez is also quite good. He’s been an above-average hitter by wRC+ in every month of 2022, which makes an August slump hard to complain too much about. Make no mistake, however, Arraez has hit a skid over the last month. What could be the cause? .269/.316/.394, a .710 OPS for Arraez in August. While still 4% above a league-average hitter in that time, it’s a far cry from the .338/.411/.445 line he posted in the first four months. Hitters slump, and oftentimes those slumps look a lot worse than what Arraez has done in August. Still, it’s worth exploring what could be going on. There have been a few narratives floated about Arraez’s struggles. The first of which has been an increase in fly balls, perhaps in pursuit of more power from the Twins leadoff man. Looking back, it’s easy to remember several lazy fly balls Arraez has produced. His 25.7% flyball rate in August is perfectly acceptable and is lower than the rate he produced in April and July in which he posted a .783 and .817 OPS respectively. The second has been a decline in the quality of his at-bats, particularly an increase in chase rate. Again, this mark has not seen a spike, and saw a decrease from July. And so it’s time to explore the simplest explanation for the decline in Arraez’s struggles: Impacting the baseball. His struggles are actually quite simple and yet very complicated. Arraez simply isn’t hitting the ball as hard. For the last three seasons, Arraez’s hard hit rate hovered just above 30% for reference. In August, he posted a 20.8% mark. While this explains his struggles, the complicated question becomes why. Of course all players are entitled to slumps, including the hitting machine Luis Arraez. It’s entirely possible that the calendar turns to September, and he’s exactly the same hitter he was for the first four months. That being said, it’s something to keep an eye on. Arraez suffered from what could be considered chronic knee issues every year of his career thus far… except for 2022. He famously spent last offseason working out with Nelson Cruz to strengthen his ailing knees and it’s hard to argue the results so far. That being said, Arraez is five games from tying his career high in games played with over a month left. He also hasn’t had any IL trips along the way to catch a breather and has nearly been an everyday player as we head into September. There’s no way to know for certain, but hopefully, his recent performance isn’t a result of his knees or any other nagging injury. If I had to guess, I think Arraez finds his way back to being tremendously productive in the batter's box in September. He’s a smart hitter who can likely find a way to adjust his approach to still succeed even if he can’t get his higher exit velocities to fully return. For a hitter who hits a noticeable skid and still posts an above-average batting line, it’s hard to be too concerned moving forward. Do you agree? View full article

FWIW I wrote this prior to him being put on the IL which is what I wanted to see over them just sitting him for a day or 2 and sending him back out. The difference between the entire season of managing him and now is how bad he looked on Monday. They can't let him continue getting to that point, and if they're out of it by the time he's eligible to be back, there's no reason to risk it.

Because they've been a straight up bad team since May and it comes down to more than just "giving up" as I've pointed out. I think we need to just agree to disagree on this one because I see you're quoting every single comment in the thread that slightly suggests that the team may not be very good.

My point exactly. I wrote this prior to him going on the IL and I just didn't want to see them rest him for a day or 2 and send him back out given how rough he looked yesterday. They basically bought themselves 10 days at this point. If the team plays as poorly as they have been they could be 5+ games out of 1st at which point there's no reason to bring him back if he's not 100%.

I just don't get the attitude behind everything you've posted like it's the dumbest idea ever for a team to shut down their star long term asset who's been injured all season when the team is sinking like a stone. I think theyll be much better in 2023 and would like him there for that. If you'd prefer they bring him back in 10 days no matter what and aggressively play him until he pulls up looking like he did last night or worse that's totally fine, agree to disagree.

I think its probably safe to assume when they say "time off won't fix it" that it's going to require some kind of surgical procedure. And in regards to further injury, again, go back and watch him last night. He's running around on one leg which is how further injury happens. I don't think its that much of a stretch to draw these conclusions based on the info we have available.

My point is I think the team and his body have reached the point where whatever procedure he needs done should probably just be done. He could barely walk last night and if guys like Correa and Polanco aren't going to do their jobs then there's nothing the Twins can do with or without Buxton that'll get them into the playoffs

At no point do I cite the slump he's in for why he should be shut down. My point was A. That he could come back on fire and the team may still be bad enough to miss the playoffs and B. That it's not worth the risk of an injury that extends into 2023 which if you watched last night's game is a real possibility. He couldn't even camp under fly balls last night with his full weight on both legs. He's not helping anybody if that's where his body is at and he's just putting himself at additional risk.

Byron Buxton has been playing injured literally since day one. He has grinded to be on the field as much as possible. As the season winds down and the Twins desperately need a star, however, it ironically may be time for Buxton to shut it down for good. The Twins have slowly sunk from their spot in first place and are months removed from looking like a quality baseball team. As crunch time nears it’s justifiably the first thought that we want Buxton on the field no matter what to provide whatever spark he has left. It’s becoming more and more apparent for several reasons however that the Twins should just play it safe and shut their star down. This Could Become a Bigger Injury Buxton has dealt with a nagging knee and hip injury all season which almost certainly will take some sort of clean-up procedure this offseason. That being said, we can hope at this point that the issue can be fixed and healed to kick off 2023. We saw on Monday night however just how hobbled he is, catching balls on one leg and taking awkward follow-throughs after swings. With how physically compromised he is, there’s no doubt he’s putting himself at risk of much more serious injury as he’s forced to modify his mechanics in everything he does on the field. An injury such as an ACL at this point would knock Buxton out for all of 2023, a season that should be prioritized at this point as the Twins are returning a better pitching staff on paper than they’ve had in several years. What Buxton has done this season is commendable, but it may have all come to a head on Monday night when he was pulled early and appeared to be completely incapable of continuing to play baseball any longer. He’s still a long-term asset for the Twins and we may have reached the point where that has to be valued above all else. Buxton May Not Matter Is there a case that the Twins best player not being in the lineup for the stretch run may not matter? I’d say yes given the context of the rest of the lineup. Buxton could go on an MVP level tear from now until the end of the season, and the Twins could still miss the playoffs because of what the rest of the lineup is doing. While Buxton has been struggling recently, the lineup’s inadequacies were front and center in a four-game series against the very bad Texas Rangers in which the Twins managed to score six runs total. Injuries play a part with several potential spark plugs missing such as Larnach, Kirilloff and Lewis, but it’s hard to argue that regulars such as Correa, Polanco and Kepler haven’t pulled their weight in months. After a trade deadline in which the team patched up the pitching issues that plagued them all season, the offense has become embarrassingly bad, oftentimes being unable to overcome nights where the pitchers allow more than one run. In short, regardless of how Buxton does if the Twins rush him back, he’ll be surrounded in the lineup by some of the most anemic and situationally poor hitters in baseball for the last few months. One player can’t win all of these games. Is that worth the risk? It would be a huge bummer to see yet another Byron Buxton season shut down by injury, but this is what we have to expect at this point. In many ways, it’s becoming more and more apparent that it’s time to set sights on 2023 with this very flawed team, and this is particularly true in the case of Byron Buxton. It’s a fact that a fundamentally sound roster would have opened up an insurmountable lead in the poor AL Central, and Buxton’s workload could have been managed more conservatively down the stretch as a result. Instead, the Twins are stuck in no man's land with a roster that’s difficult to take too seriously despite ample opportunity to control their own destiny. Their star was pushed beyond what should have been asked as a result. At this point, the overly aggressive push in regards to Byron Buxton should be done. The priority should be the long term. It’s time to shut him down and let the AL Central cards fall where they may. View full article

The Twins called up Cole Sands a few weeks ago saying they were in need of a long reliever, something that makes a lot of sense given the makeup of their pitching staff. A few outings later, however, this statement has become fairly puzzling. Some people have been calling for a long reliever to be added to the roster for much of the season. It made sense, after all, considering the way the Twins have chosen to construct their pitching staff. Between Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and even Joe Ryan, the Twins don’t have many pitchers that can be pushed into the late innings. As a result, Cole Sands was called up to avoid having to use 4-5 relievers every time one of these starters takes the mound. Through a week and a half, however, the Twins aren’t using Sands in the way we expected. Sands’ first outing back in Minnesota was impressive and just what we had in mind. Spinning three innings of shutout ball, Sands was able to save the bullpen. Since that first outing back on August 7th, however, Sands has pitched twice, both in one-inning stints. Perhaps a long relief opportunity hasn’t presented itself, but his recent usage may say the bullpen hierarchy isn’t what it probably should be at this point. In his last outing, the Twins led 9-0 against Kansas City in the 9th inning and Sands was called upon for mop-up duty. Rather than deploying Emilio Pagan who two outings prior gave up a walk-off home run and had yet another longball pulled back by Nick Gordon in his most recent appearance, the Twins turned to their so-called “long reliever.” Nobody will blame the Twins for not being able to tell the future, but the very next day Tyler Mahle left in the third inning and the Twins turned to Emilio Pagan in the role Sands was supposedly brought up to fill. The game was ultimately filled out later by several high-leverage relievers just as we’ve seen in short starts all season. Pagan was less than dominant but got the job done. The outcome here is inconsequential with the day off Thursday, but it raises questions about the Twins bullpen management, particularly in regards to long relievers. In years past the Twins have not only had rosters that a traditional long reliever would have helped, but they’ve also had respectable options to fill such a role. From Randy Dobnak in 2021 to Cole Sands and Josh Winder this year, the Twins have a history of rostering these players and not setting them up for success in a long relief role. In all three cases, these pitchers have been used inconsistently in regards to the frequency they pitch as well as the situations they’re used in. Not only does this usage not provide the team with the bullpen support they so badly need, but the pitchers themselves often suffer without the structure they’d grown accustomed to as starting pitchers. Unless the front office simply views Sands as a traditional relief pitcher at this point in his career, there’s no reason for him to be on the Major League roster filling one-inning stints. He clearly won’t be allowed to pitch on back-to-back days, so unless he’s the #1 option to come in and fill multiple innings, there are several relievers in AAA who can come up and better fill such a role. Perhaps Mahle’s short start was a wake-up call, but Cole Sands simply isn’t being used in the way he should be. It’s disappointing to see considering how much of an impact a true long reliever could have in this final month-plus of the season. Furthermore, it hasn’t been encouraging to see that the Twins prefer to use their so-called “long reliever” in mop-up duty over Emilio Pagan who still appears to have the Twins complete trust despite the seismic shift he’s made in their season with some of the ugliest blow-ups in Twins Territory since Ron Davis was closing out games. It’s impossible to say whether the Twins feel the same way, but they should be staring down two options moving forward. Either schedule out “piggyback” scenarios with Cole Sands to use him in a way that will maximize his ability to fill innings, or replace him with a traditional reliever that doesn’t need time off after a one-inning stint. Anywhere in between these two options would be doing a disservice to themselves. The Twins need a long reliever and now they have one in Cole Sands. It’s time to start using him as one. View full article

The Twins Injured List continues to grow as the season rolls on as they’re now missing several important contributors who hopefully haven’t made their last marks on this 2022 Twins team. Some absences however weigh a bit heavier than others. It seems like there’s a new player added to the Injured List every other day as the Twins have found themselves filling out the daily lineup card with players we never imagined they’d be relying on. Outfield, catcher, pitchers of all roles, there’s nowhere the Twins haven’t felt the sting of injury. For them to get back on the right track, I’ve ranked the top 3 players in order of importance to how the Twins may wind up finishing their season. 3. Trevor Larnach Larnach last played at the end of June before undergoing core muscle surgery that turned out to be the likely source of his struggles before hitting the IL. Before being limited by injury, Larnach was a solid contributor to the Twins in multiple ways. The slugging left-hander was about league average in March and April before exploding to the tune of a .333/.431/.646 line in May. He also graded out well in every defensive metric, as what he lacked in outfield range, he made up for in sure-handedness and an arm that had bullied teams out of trying for extra bases. What was originally a six-week timetable appears to have been pushed back to closer to 10 weeks with little updates along the way. The Twins are hoping Larnach can be back in early September for the stretch run which would be huge for the lineup. Any kind of return to form would result in Larnach taking playing time away from players such as Jake Cave and Tim Beckham. Larnach should also slot into the top 4-5 spots in the lineup with his patient approach and bat capable of some much-needed fireworks. He’s been lefty-proof in his career thus far, actually hitting southpaws better than righties which makes him an everyday player if Kyle Garlick doesn’t make his return this season. 2. Ryan Jeffers Many complained about Jeffers’ bat, myself included, for much of the season. While he hasn’t lit the world on fire, it’s hard to deny that Jeffers has a superior glove to Gary Sanchez who’s played far too often since Jeffers went down. The former Yankee, a bat-first catcher, has given us a newfound appreciation for Jeffers’ modest offensive skills since he’s become the everyday catcher. Sanchez was 24% below the league average hitter in June, and a Drew Butera-esque 59% below in July. Not only is his defense not up to Jeffers’ standards, but the Twins have basically been giving away 3-4 free outs per game to their opponents from the catcher’s spot for over a month. Sandy Leon has begun eating into Gary’s playing time as he can at least provide stellar work behind the plate, but the Twins certainly would benefit from Jeffers return sooner rather than later. The floor of his framing work behind the plate and occasional hot streak sounds far superior to the current setup. It’s hopeful Jeffers returns towards the end of August and certainly for the stretch run in September. 1. Bailey Ober The Twins had a fantastic trade deadline, there’s no disputing that. They had a significant amount of needs and addressed the most important ones in a market that many teams called difficult. One more filler-type starting pitcher certainly wouldn’t have hurt, however. The Twins are in an interesting spot with the rotation. Joe Ryan has begun to surpass previous career highs in innings pitched. It’s hard to expect more than four innings pitched from Bundy and Archer every time out, and there’s little to no help on the way in the minors aside from Devin Smeltzer. A lot will hinge not only on the rotation staying healthy, but on the duo of Bundy and Archer occasionally providing starts that give the Twins a chance to win, which is no sure thing. Having Ober back even under the premise that he’s a solid #4 starter would be a game changer for a Twins rotation that lacks any kind of depth. It’s unclear what Ober’s timeline is, but we’ve been told we can expect him back this season still at this point. Hopefully good news starts to emerge sooner rather than later, as the Twins could surely use one of their lone bright spots from the 2021 rotation. Admittedly this list is plenty interchangeable and there are several options not even listed here. Let's be honest, we have plenty of injured players to choose from! Do you agree with the order of the list? Do you think someone not listed here deserves to be at the top? Let us know below. View full article

Yup, and for what it's worth I don't blame anyone for not putting their complete trust in bWAR or fWAR. One thing I think everyone should agree on however is that he's been a fairly big disappointment.

He isn't playing to his contract though. Fangraphs has him at $13.3m in value on his $35m contract as noted in the article.

I don't think Polanco was going to play shortstop under any circumstances, they've made it abundantly clear that he's just a second baseman now. FWIW Correa is actually having his worst defensive season of his career by just about every metric since he was a rookie. I also don't think you pay $35m for any player unless you think they're a difference maker on defense AND offense.

What I meant more by that is teams look beyond opportunity based stats more than they did in the 90s and 2000s. Maybe back then his pace of 60ish RBI would make it impossible for anyone to consider a long term deal this offseason whereas now I think teams look further elsewhere in search of indicators of actual skill. In Correa's case this year however he's actually had a fair bit of opportunity to cash in RBI and has been absolutely brutal in those scenarios so who knows.