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SomeGuy

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Everything posted by SomeGuy

  1. SomeGuy
    Mejia is a viable option when healthy. I like him better than any of these options. Grab a closer instead.
  2. SomeGuy
    I don't really agree with the notion that free agents performed worse due to being "salty" about how free agency went for them. What sense does it make for a player to slack off on a 1 year deal because they feel they were mistreated? That would only make the next offseason worse. I prefer the theories that Morrison was battling injuries and 2017 was a career year that he wasn't likely to duplicate over him being bitter about Free Agency. Also Lynn can point to the NL to AL switch as well as 2017 being a small sample size since his injury (5.10 ERA with the Twins last year isn't that far off from the 4.82 FIP he had 2017).
  3. SomeGuy
    Kind of bold to say that 8 of 9 positions will be home grown players. Also bold to say we don't extend/re-sign a single player from the current roster. With a few moves this article could be titled our best prospects at each position. But I can see where predicting free agents or trades from the next 3 off seasons would not be logical....Aside from the obvious Mike Trout signing. (Could also replace the Trout joke with - we would need to see who the non tendered players are from around the league that year)
  4. SomeGuy
    That pitching coach has been let go since then.
  5. SomeGuy
    Their offseason has been slow so far. Cory Spangenberg, Bobby Wahl, and Ben Gamel have been their main additions. They lost a bunch of guys to Free Agency (mostly the 1 year rentals they acquired mid season). If they get a couple of the players they have been linked to, like Dozier, Bumgarner, or Kuechel, they can recoup those losses. Fangraphs has them at 78 wins and 5th place right now. I still think they are easily better than the Pirates and Reds but this is a decent division. I don't really see a clear favorite or great team between Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals.
  6. SomeGuy
    Whether its park factor or not, that is a pretty substantial home/away split. He had the same problem with the Cubs, which is one of the worst pitchers parks so maybe it is just a preference thing. Either way a troubling trend. Career Home - 1.66 ERA Away - 5.35 ERA
  7. SomeGuy
    Decent, plus he would qualify for arbitration next season if the deal is a 1 year deal. Hopefully he is not the marquee bullpen guy we sign this year. As another possible red flag, Angels ballpark is a pitchers park. Over that good 2017-2018 span that he had, there was a serious home/away split. Home 1.61 ERA Away 4.42 ERA
  8. SomeGuy
    I'm a little worried about Rosario but less than many other Twins players. His monthly OPS for 2018 show two really good months and the rest are poor. His average, OBP, and Slugging all followed the same path, his season was boosted by those two amazing months. He didn't injure his quad until Aug 30th so I don't believe that explains the July and August decline. Hopefully he is less streaky next year but overall I am confident he will have another decent stat line over the full season. 2017 he was much more consistent. Mar/Apr .659 May 1.004 June 1.084 July .622 Aug .669 Sept .625
  9. SomeGuy
    This sounds like hindsite. Statcast has him at the exact same Sprint Speed as 2017, 6 Twins positional players were below him 2018. Considering a move to 1st or DH has been in the cards for a long time, I don't think it torpedoes his value to move away from 3rd. Especially since he has never been (and never will be) an asset at 3rd base defensively. Plus we have no long term option at either 1st or DH.
  10. SomeGuy
    I believe whatever issues he had with his swing are also connected to his conditioning. It easy to see how someone's hard hit% and exit velocity decrease when he loses leg strength recovering from injury. He was "immobilized" last offseason according to the Front Office, I take that to mean he did not spend much if any time in a batting cage. I find it kind of crazy how much fans have piled on to this injury. You hear so many times that he is now a failed prospect and the Twins need to move on etc. By the comments you wouldn't know that this time last year he was an all star 3rd baseman and a fan favorite.
  11. SomeGuy
    Nelson Cruz's pre-28 years are a pretty small sample size, he only had 557 MLB at bats before establishing himself. Kepler and Rosario have triple that and even Buxton has almost double at 979 AB. 115 of those Cruz at bats were part of a very good age 27 season (.330/.421/.609 all three would have been career highs if it was a full season). I wouldn't count on any of the 3 living up to Nelson Cruz's hitting career but there is still time for them to develop into good hitters. Plus Nelson Cruz is a known PED user before 2013, who knows when that started and how much it impacted his development.
  12. SomeGuy
    Being optioned "straight" to Single A isn't really a fair statement. He wasn't sent there because AAA or AA were too much for him. They wanted him to be near the extensive workout facilities that Fort Myers has available. I am optimistic about Sano with a full offseason. As a prospect he was praised for his work ethic, he should rebound just fine as long as the leg holds up. 2019 success hinges more on Sano than any other player besides maybe Buxton. An injured or ineffective Garver would not derail our season like another bad season from Sano would.
  13. SomeGuy
    Are all 3 players replacing just Mauer? Or are they replacing Dozier, Escobar and Mauer (37 2018 homeruns)? More like 30 HR increase. Nice pickups though.
  14. SomeGuy
    Over 100 is a really optimistic estimate. Cron hit 30 last year but 16 was his previous high. Schoop hit 21 in a down year last year but most of his career was at Camden Yards, which from 2010-2016 produced 122 Homeruns for every 100 homeruns at an average park. Cruz's homerun total has declined for three consecutive seasons. Baseball-reference projects the 3 to combine for 74 homeruns. Cruz 31, Cron 22, Schoop 21. Steamer is a little better at 83. Cruz 35, Cron 24, Schoop 24. Good pickups though. I like that 2020 is an option year for Cruz.
  15. SomeGuy
    My issue with PED users not being in the HOF is that we will never know the true scope of it. We know steroids were prevalent in baseball during the 70's, why do we treat Hank Aaron differently than Barry Bonds? Punishing 2-3 players under the assumption of using is not fair when there is so much certainty that 4 decades or more have been clouded with steroids. I would vote Bonds and Clemens if it were up to me.
  16. SomeGuy
    Good list. I would agree that everyone on it should be in the HOF. I don't buy into the first ballot thing. If they are in what I view as the top 10 players on the ballot I would vote for them. I wouldn't consider if I think they are 1st ballot worthy or not, just a simple who is my top 10. I do think Coors Field should factor into the decision but Helton and Walker are still probably good enough. Walker played 7.5 seasons on different teams too. They both have pretty crazy home/away splits though. I can buy a hitter playing better at home but .170-.180 points of OPS better seems like park factor. Helton home .332/.435/.565 away .285/.391/.442 Walker home .337/.449/.592 away .271/.377/.487
  17. SomeGuy
    I doubt any team would ever tell a 24 year old, still developing player to "show up in Spring training a competent Major League baseball player" like some sort of ultimatum. The front office needs to work with him as much as possible. Hopefully they ask your question to him many many times "Please, Byron, tell us what we can do to help you play better"
  18. SomeGuy
    I don't think its fair to say CJ Cron's .323 OBP was "pretty low." MLB average was .318 in 2018.
  19. SomeGuy
    Overall I like the trade the Twins made but I see why the Rays were willing to take such a low prospect and dump his modest salary. If we were to extend Odorizzi I would hope that the contract is short and reflects a 5th starter salary.
  20. SomeGuy
    1 MPH over 2 seasons. 1/2 MPH per season. Is that going to reverse or is he on track to be a sub 90MPH guy? I would bet on the guy that has 2MPH on the other and is coming off a good 1.5 year stretch opposed to someone who was below average over the last 2 years and getting worse. I am having a hard time contributing Odorizzi's struggles to "one bad year" when it appears to be a downward trend. FIP is increasing into the high 4, low 5 range, groundballs have decreased steadily over the last 4 seasons while flyballs have risen 4 consecutive seasons. His 1.44 HR/9 over the last 3 seasons is 17th worst, slightly better than guys like Ricky Nolasco (1.45) and Bartolo Colon (1.57).
  21. SomeGuy
    Here is an interesting trend for each pitcher. Odorizzi is losing velocity at 28 and Gibson has gained velocity, likely due to his adjustments in the middle of 2017. Odorizzi 4seam velocity + ERA 2016 - 92.50MPH 3.69 ERA 2017 - 91.91MPH 4.14 ERA 2018 - 91.45MPH 4.49 ERA Gibson 2016 - 91.83MPH 5.07 ERA 2017 - 92.62MPH 5.07 ERA (3.76 ERA in 2nd half) 2018 - 93.64MPH 3.62 ERA
  22. SomeGuy
    I want to point out the first bullet point on the list. Gibson is just as durable as Odorizzi so its not like Odorizzi has a leg up on him in the category. Saying Odorizzi has less innings doesn't necessarily translate to less pitches. Gibson has only pitched one more MLB game in his career than Odorizzi, 159 to 158 (that is games started, Odorizzi has technically pitched 161 games if you count non starts). Odorizzi is notorious for reaching his "pitch count" early in the game. Since the article focuses on 2014 to 2018 and Orodizzi's 28+ games lets compare Gibson for the same stretch. Odorizzi threw 832.2 innings in 152 games. That is about 5.47 innings per game. Gibson has thrown 3 less games in that stretch but 876 innings, about 5.88 innings per game. EDIT: Gibson has thrown 15,432 pitches to Odorizzi's 15,317. Gibson has thrown 115 more pitches.
  23. SomeGuy
    Before anyone jumps in with Nelson Cruz should be our DH, consider this.... Austin vs lefties .272/.345/.592 Cave vs Righties .287/.335/.509 Cruz 2018 overall .256/.353/.513 Austin and Cave come with the added benefit of being physically able to play in the field if needed. They are 27 and 26 years old, they should be on the upswing of their career not the decline. They are both pre-arb so we can use the potential Cruz money to upgrade the bullpen instead.
  24. SomeGuy
    Cave ranks below Kepler in dWAR and well below him in UZR (10.8 to -1.0). Its debatable how Cave would have fared in those metrics as only a corner outfielder (he was -0.4 UZR as RF and -0.4 as LF but only had 80 and 29 innings at each) but he was not good in CF. Kepler was 3rd in the MLB among outfielders for the UZR category. And yes I am assuming an average everyday 1B is better than Kepler would be but don't know until he plays there I guess. I personally hope we never have to find out. Seems simple to just platoon Cave with Austin at DH if your only goal is to get more at bats for Cave.
  25. SomeGuy
    Cave slashed .194/.239/.358 against lefties last year so he should probably be limited to RH starters (.287/.335/.509 against RHP). Tyler Austin has a nice platoon fit with Cave, his career slash has been .272/.345.592 against LHP and .211/.259/.405 against RHP. Wouldn't it be easier to just have Cave take DH at bats away from Austin against RHP when we aren't resting another OF? I don't see the advantage of asking a good defensive outfielder to play 1B where he hasn't played a full game since 2015 (AA). In my opinion that is likely to be a downgrade at 2 positions defensively.
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