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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. That's better than collectively, with Vazquez, right? Why would you group he and Vazquez unless you were deflating his worth?
  2. Maybe take Vazquez out and resort? He is the ultimate anchor offensively.
  3. Actually, in looking it up, it was 'pitching, fundamentals, and three run home runs.'
  4. Yeah, it is a long season, and players go through ups and downs. Last year, many were down on Santana when he had a slow start, but later in the year, he was arguably their best hitter. Kepler was like that in 2023 as well, and, same thing, came on strong in the second half. One thing that is clear about Wallner - he hits the ball HARD. The five hardest hit balls by a Twin in 2024 were all by Wallner - with two over 116 MPH, which is smoking.
  5. Lee's bunt won the game, but it was not the most impactful hit of the game. If the Twins played 'small ball' in the sixth and Clemens maybe scratches out one more run, they wouldn't have been in position to win it in the ninth with a squeeze play. Yes, there is a time and place for just settling for one run (the bottom of the ninth inning in a tie game is the most obvious situation of all), I just don't believe they should fall in love with that strategy earlier in the game.
  6. Earl Weaver was one of the all time great managers. His philosophy of winning baseball was "“pitching and three-run homers. Pitching keeps you in the games. Home runs win the game.” The ninth inning squeeze play was fine - but with Buxton on third with no outs, my guess is they could win the game needing only one run in multiple ways. The real impact play of the game was Clemens' three run home run. As Weaver also said, "your most precious possessions on offense are your 27 outs, and if you play for one run, that’s all you’ll get.” An interesting fact from a SABRE member: Weaver was 213-46 (.822) in games where the Orioles hit a three run home run and 1,267-1,014 (.555) when they did not.
  7. Yeah, not exactly small ball there. Clemens, for 10 HRs, has been impactful with almost all of them.
  8. I meant to say Jeffers, not Wallner. The other catching options are worse - he has comparative advantage. BTW, Baseball Reference has him at 0.5 WAR for the year; Vazquez is 0.1 , is six years older and a free agent after this year. Who else do you think will get you positive WAR?
  9. The Baseball Trade Values Trade Simulator says that Duran has a surplus value of 19.1 and Rushing 43.1. According to that simulator, that trade isn't happening
  10. Somebody has to catch for the Twins - Wallner is as close to untouchable trade-wise as any tradeable position player.
  11. Buxton has a full no-trade contract and, from everything I've read, is happy here and wants to be one of those rare one-franchise career players. He and Correa aren't going anywhere. I agree that Ryan is their most prized MLB tradeable asset at the moment - IF the Twins decide to shut it down, play-offs-wise, it would be interesting to see what kind of haul they could get for him.
  12. There are 13 second basemen with a WAR higher than Clemens' 1.0 at this point in the season (according to MLB.com). Several are barely above it: Witt (3.4), Turang (2.6), Donovan (2.3), Horner and Marte (2.2), Chisholm and Torres (1.6), Edman, Gimenez, and Holliday (1.2), McNeil and Kim (1.1). Given the salary disparity with some of these players, I'm not sure the 'in tremendous trouble' claim is valid at the moment.
  13. It's a long season, and, with a 1.0 WAR that is higher than all Twins batters save Buxton, Bader, and Jeffers, Clemens deserves plenty of opportunities to get back on track. Meanwhile, the Twins hitters with a negative WAR this year are Bride, Fitzgerald, Gasper, McCusker, Miranda, Julien, and Keirsay. My guess is Bride is the first out when the Twins next play 26-man roster musical chairs.
  14. He was shining in college at 21 at Cedarville University, to the tune of 1 HR and an .871 OPS against inferior college opposition. Altuve, at 21, between A+ and AA, had 10 HRs and a 1.017 OPS. Eerily similar comps?
  15. His first 4 years of college, he hit 6 home runs - total. 2023, 7, and last year 'broke out' with 12. I think he's 'filled out' by now at age 25, so expecting power is highly unlikely.
  16. Eeles played 4 years of college against inferior competition. He did play a 5th year of college at a strong program (Coastal Carolina), but it's still hard to get super excited about a 25 year old prospect with little pop.
  17. About the only thing Eeles and Altuve have in common is they're both short. Altuve made the majors at 21 without ever having played at AAA and has a career WAR of around 53. Eeles hasn't even sniffed the majors at 25. A more apt comparison would be Nick Gordon, who had some minor league success and also made his Twins debut at 25 years of age. Wasn't exactly a stellar MLB career.
  18. Jackson's didn't leave the ballpark, as it hit the lights extension. It would have, sure, but it didn't.
  19. I believe that was in an All Star game played at Tigers Stadium - and has been said to be the longest HR ever in the history of the All Star game (at least since they began recording HR distance).
  20. I remember going to games at the Metropolitan stadium and seeing the orange seat - you had to see it to comprehend just how far (and high) from home plate it was.
  21. He did - one of four players to do so: Cecil Fielder, Frank Howard, Harmon Killebrew, and Mark McGwire. Those all are/were some big dudes.
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