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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Actually, you want to play with their money (i.e., spend it), I am willing to let them play with their money (i.e., keep it or spend it) - they are not the same thing. The logic you hang on is that the Twins would have gotten a better 'investment' (i.e., prospect lottery ticket) if Dobnak had not been included. The problem is money hasn't been the root cause of the Twins issues the past two seasons - they have spent more than the teams finishing above them in the Central Division each year. Given the lottery ticket nature of prospects, what they might have gotten more of without including Dobnak appears to be more an argument about 'the principle of things' than about something tangible. My career is in finance, so yeah, I'd be just fine with pocketing a couple million if there was little likelihood of a better ROI from haggling for another prospect.
  2. arby58
    The Pohlads own the team, and major league sports is a business. 'Pocketing a few million bucks' can be part of making the financial picture work at any given point in time. Regardless of how we all feel about it, most every MLB team has a budget, and when you look at those budgets (with some year to year swings) they largely fit into about four categories: 1. Big market, big budget teams. 2. Medium market, medium budget teams 3. Seriously financially constrained teams. My view has been there are about 8 teams in the first cohort, 16 teams in the second, and 6 in the final group. The Twins are, nearly every year, in the middle group. As has been noted elsewhere, they have a larger payroll this year than every other team in the AL Central. Their performance of late (and things that drive revenue) has fallen off. If that means management is looking for cost cutting measures, they are no different than most any business that encounters revenue challenges. It's always easier to play with other people's money.
  3. arby58
    Both sides in a trade are working with incomplete information, and you have to wonder just how many of these 'x and y teams are interested' are just feigns and bluffs. Let's say I'm the Yankees and I'm interested in a starting pitcher not named Paddock. You might feign interest in Paddock so the team you're actually talking with thinks their leverage is diminished. If you follow the rumor mill sites, you'll find teams 'interested' in far more players than they will actually be able to acquire. The only reason to do that is to reduce leverage of your actual target. Further, if the Twins had waited around for another offer, the existing offer might be taken off the table. My guess is the Twins threw Dobnak into the trade not at the start of the negotiations but at the end, when they couldn't get anything more out of the Tigers than the prospect they got.
  4. arby58
    Yes, they both can be true. There are also variations on this theme that might be true - it's all conjecture. Here is how the conversation might have played out: Tigers: Interested in Paddack, what do you want in return? Twins: prospect A (playing in A-ball)? Tigers: Can't go that high on our prospect list. How about prospect J, in the FCL? Twins: In the FCL? How about prospect B? Tigers: Nope - what else would you need besides prospect J? Twins: You take Dobnak off our hands and you've got a deal. Tigers: Dobnak? He's 1-7 in Triple A with an ERA north of 7 and a guaranteed contract! Twins: That's the deal if all you'll offer is Prospect J. Tigers: Deal.
  5. arby58
    I'm missing the logic - if there is no difference between a $10M and a $11.2M player, how does the argument go that a prospect is markedly better with or without the $1.2M? I think this is all making a mountain out of a molehill.
  6. arby58
    I would have sent him away for a bag of balls - and paid for the bag of balls as well.
  7. arby58
    Trading for prospects isn't a linear equation, and the rankings of prospects are all over the map. They got a decent prospect, but they are all more or less lottery tickets. Claims this 'lowered the return' in a way that is material is conjecture.
  8. arby58
    I like what they got back for Paddack - a young catcher who appears to have reasonable upside. The Dobnak stuff is just a sideshow. They got literally less than nothing out of Randy's long-term contract - I don't begrudge them trying to 're-gift' part of it to another team.
  9. arby58
    What if it was exactly the same return? I'm still keeping Duran. The OP makes a strong case, but Jax has not been 'the man' as a closer at all this year. Even if Duran's MPH on his fastball is declining, it would still take a couple of years, at the cited linear rate, for Jax to catch up. I'll take those couple of years of Duran 'only' averaging 99 MPH.
  10. arby58
    Noah Cardenas IS looking good. Between AA and AAA, he has an .850 OPS, 9 HRs in 189 ABs, and a decent walks to K ratio (27 walks, 37 Ks). And, as you point out, it will be a long time before he would earn $10 million a year in salary.
  11. arby58
    You would think so, unless one believes the Tigers were really motivated to pick up a 30 year old AAA pitcher with a 1-7 record and a 7.12 ERA. If so, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
  12. arby58
    So what's the solution if 'trade is expensive, FAs are expensive, and young promising catchers to mentor aren't easy to get and take time to evolve.'
  13. arby58
    At least a B.
  14. arby58
    I just looked at Fort Meyers' roster, and if he were there, he'd be the youngest player on the team.
  15. arby58
    Great research - look forward to part 2!
  16. arby58
    Corbett actually had a couple of decent seasons for the Twins - on a couple of pretty lousy cubs (combined 34 games under .500). He had a combined WAR of 8.5 in 1980 and 1981 but got off to a poor start in 1982 and was traded to the Angels. That trade worked out pretty well for the Twins - Corbett and Rob Wilfong brought Tom Brunansky to the Twins.
  17. arby58
    Brings back (mostly painful) memories. Five years as the Twins closer, cumulative WAR of 0.1 - and never had a WHIP lower than 1.371. Yuck.
  18. arby58
    A valid concern - and why I don't think the Twins would trade both Jax and Duran (especially since they are also likely to lose Coulombe either through trade or free agency). So, who else might emerge? Prielipp has the stuff to do it, and in 16 starts at AA, he's only pitched an average of 3 1/3 innings per start. He'll be 25 before the start of next year, so he's not like Raya (22) who still might get stronger and be able to pitch 6 innings a game.
  19. arby58
    I've been of the opinion the Twins were not a bad team, but recent events are starting to change my impression. They had a chance to get back to .500 at the All Star break against a sub-.500 Pirates team and couldn't do so. They then lost three straight series coming out of the break, two of them against bad teams - and they weren't even competitive in the series deciding games against both the Rockies and the Nats, the latter of which was at home. The team continues to find novel ways to lose games - their best starting pitcher gets rocked against the Nats, their vaunted bullpen blows ninth inning leads, they score a total of 6 runs in 3 games against the Nats - who rank 29th of 30 in MLB team ERA. I'm starting to come around to the perspective that more than just a 'competitive rebuild' is necessary.
  20. arby58
    The statement was "Falvey doesn't know what we really need" which isn't the same as questioning decision making. Falvey and the rest of the front office 'know what we really need' - you can question whether they execute it, but this base claim is baseless.
  21. arby58
    The called Willians Astudillo The Turtle for a reason.
  22. arby58
    The other side is there. The starting pitching - when not injured - is strong, as is the bullpen. There is plenty of talent on the offensive side - they just need Lewis, Wallner, and Correa to produce and Keaschall to join them. Both Lewis and Correa are showing this might still happen this year. These are not incredible or unreasonable possibilities.
  23. arby58
    Great performance by Zebby - as good as he has gotten. Jax is clearly shut down for the next day or two, but the rest of the relief corps looks pretty good for use. Twins need to sweep this series to have any hope of playing in the post season. Nice to have Ryan up next, but they need more than one run against a LHP.
  24. arby58
    A lot of third party baseball commentators look at your half empty glass and suggest it is half full. The rotation wasn't 'spotty' before they lost 60% of it, the bullpen is strong, and there are several players who have produced offense in the past that haven't done it as much so far. There is a reason they play 162 games, of course - I recall Kepler and Lewis going on a tear in the latter parts of the season, and it is certainly possible that could still happen for the likes of Lewis, Wallner, and Correa.
  25. arby58
    Blaming player development on the GM seems odd. He drafts them, he doesn't get on the field and do fielding practice with them. Also keep in mind that his first draft would have been 2017, so those players don't even get started mostly until 2018. 2020 was a wasted year for development as well. Several position players they drafted are high on their prospect board (Jenkins, Keaschall, Emma, Culpepper). The jury is also still out on guys like Lewis, Wallner, and Lee as well.
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