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dex8425

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Everything posted by dex8425

  1. dex8425
    I'd feel a bit disappointed if the Twins trade Buck this offseason, just because that signals the Twins won't be competitive in 2022, and also because I won't get to watch Buxton play next year. The return is also not going to be great, because it's only for one year of a guy who doesn't stay on the field and will earn about 10 million in 2022, so it's not like he's cheap. My position on this is clear: Generally, you don't sign large guaranteed contracts to frequently injured outfielders who rely on speed to determine their value. Injuries just don't go away. Speed does go away. Buxton is not going to suddenly become durable in his 30's. If he hits, he could have value playing a corner spot, but corner outfielders who can hit are not hard to find.
  2. dex8425
    This is pretty disappointing as a Twins fan, since I'd consider that (on the surface) as very reasonable for Berrios. Something the Twins could've easily afforded.
  3. dex8425
    Braves also already have a young superstar roaming centerfield, and he is cheaply under long term team control.
  4. dex8425
    If the Twins roll with Gordon or Maggi as the opening day shortstop, then I expect them to have also traded Buxton, Kepler, Donaldson and Sano and committed to a full rebuild.
  5. dex8425
    Aaron Judge is kind of similar. He would have been even closer had he not played a full season this year. Both put up MVP level production when on the field but Judge only had one full season (2017, his rookie year) before this year. He also becomes a free agent after next year. Predictions for Judge are around 6/150, which seems about right? I certainly wouldn't want the Twins to pay that for Judge. Buxton should be cheaper. Judge has been much more consistent and just better overall.
  6. dex8425
    There's a lot of comps between Verlander's stuff in his 30's and some other Houston pitcher by the name of Nolan. That other guy pitched pretty well in his late 30's and early 40's.
  7. dex8425
    Yep, some of them work out, some of them don't. My point is the Twins historically have searched more for "value" than "sign the best guy." Nothing necessarily wrong with that if you develop your own pitching.
  8. dex8425
    Kershaw isn't an ace any more. That doesn't mean he isn't valuable, as he will be very good when he pitches, but I think he either goes back to LAD, goes home to Texas, or retires.
  9. dex8425
    Probably because that's what the Twins do in free agency. Sign #3 starting pitchers and hope they work out. Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Nick Blackburn, J.A. Happ, Michael Pineda, the list goes on.
  10. dex8425
    Stroman is projected to get a smaller contract though. I don't see a team going 140m to get Gausman. Personally I'd give Stroman more $$ over Gausman because of his much more consistent track record of success.
  11. dex8425
    Wow, I'd be shocked if Gausman gets 6/138. He's had one good season as a starter.
  12. dex8425
    Mauer will get in easily. Probably second ballot. Depends on what the voters do with A-rod. I'm not sure I would vote for Molina (not a good hitter, only 42 bWAR, and I wouldn't vote for Omar Vizquel either) or Posey (only 44 bWAR and not enough counting stats).
  13. dex8425
    Wow that's big news.
  14. dex8425
    Here's mine. (Edited to reflect higher price for Gausman) Gray gets 4/60. Stroman gets 5/100. Buxton extended- 6 years, 120m, backloaded and incentive driven. He gets 10 this year. I'm bringing back Simmons because he played well while the team was near the division lead and he's a good bounce back candidate. Happy with this bullpen and rotation. Dobnak, when healthy and not jerked around by team plans, has been more effective than Pineda. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-XChUZHAKmTFWms2MjhZ31d9L8Mqrm1UQhDUQbCglhs/edit?usp=sharing
  15. dex8425
    Who plays shortstop then?
  16. dex8425
    I'd think more than 1/100. Strasberg did. Mark Prior did. Harper was drafted as a 17 year old and then won ROY at age 19 by playing every day. Garrett Crochet was drafted last year and pitched for CWS last year. Just off the top of my head...
  17. dex8425
    He was picked in 2015 and played in MLB the very next year. In 2017 he played every day. I don't recall the Twins promoting this aggressively, even with college players. When has a draft pick made an MLB debut the next year for the Twins?
  18. dex8425
    Without looking it up...I think Ozzie Smith would be the leader in career defensive WAR, right? Brooks Robinson has to be up there too. Simmons actually has an outside HOF chance but needs to play 3-5 more years at 3 WAR or so. That will not happen if he has more seasons like 2021 obviously.
  19. dex8425
    I thought about that too but he was great with LAA and they were historically bad when he was there.
  20. dex8425
    He can't possibly be worse than he was this year. None of the better shortstops are going to take a one year deal. I wouldn't be mad if the Twins also signed 2-3 legitimate starters and 1-2 bullpen arms.
  21. dex8425
    Assuming he rejects the QO from Colorado, I'd guess 4/40? He should get more guaranteed $ than Kyle Gibson did.
  22. dex8425
    He apparently didn't bring that something to Cleveland, because, yeah, they were not good.
  23. dex8425
    Ichiro also stole bases, played every day, and provided ELITE defense in right field. Arraez is 0-3 there.
  24. dex8425
    I wouldn't bet against him though. I don't think he likes being in Houston. Hall of famers don't always follow the same aging trajectory as everyone else.
  25. dex8425
    Ray- too expensive. Twins won't outbid a bunch of teams for him. Kershaw will be back with LAD. Verlander will want to sign with a contender. Maybe NYY. Scherzer goes back to LAD. Greinke goes to an NL contender so he can hit. Matz is getting a big multi-year deal. I think Twins get outbid for Stroman, consider Thor too risky, and end up with someone like Jon Gray and then someone like JA Happ.
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