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TwinsAce

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  1. TwinsAce
    I was also pleasantly surprised to see Tanner and Rushing in the 2nd round range. I would love to get one of those guys or a pitcher that has high upside but had an injury with our 2nd pick. Love this list and love the thought of 100 even next year. It would be awesome if there is a link to this during the draft, potentially with a spot to put which team drafted them and pick #. Curious to see how many players will still be around after the first day due to signability or other concerns.
  2. TwinsAce
    I get it has been a struggle for Buxton, but I keep on coming back to the constant quotes we hear from the Twins. Like the one below in the Athletic article from last night. “It’s been a strenuous, truly 24-hour-a-day job for him to take the field each day,” Baldelli said. “And that’s what he deals with. And he’s open to dealing with that every day. There are days where walking is not easy and he ends up playing in the game that day, and as a whole playing well.” https://theathletic.com/3425073/2022/07/14/byron-buxton-twins-more-work/ For better or for worse, Buxton is probably operating at 70-90% capacity. We have seen so many star players have a "wash" of a season because of injuries, whether hip, knee, hand, etc. I can't imagine how hard it is to hit with a sore knee and keep on top of the wide range of pitches coming at him. Hopefully he can feel good going into the playoffs and next year. And yet somehow, Buxton is tied for 3rd in AB per HR at 11.5, not too far behind Alvarez and Judge (10.3 & 10.5 respectively.) Correa is maybe not as hot this year as Swanson, Turner, Pena, or Bogaerts, but he is right there with the other top short stops in the top 10. OBP, SLG, AVG, OPS, wRC+ = all 4th-7th place in MLB for shortstops. Barrels / PA % = 6th. Hard Hit % = 2nd. If anything, his biggest struggle hitting has been the average launch angle at only 9.5 and his defense hasn't been quite as elite. And May was arguably his roughest month defensively, but he also had to deal with the hand injury. I guess an "average season as far as superstar shortstops go" is pretty nice IMO.
  3. TwinsAce
    I was thinking about that too. The counter to this article is the number of times our top prospects (say top 15) are having amazing seasons and fans start to get worried that they could be traded. Then, the FO doesn't trade them and everyone is excited to keep that "star" prospect. Except...2 years down the road, the prospect is struggling at AAA and either no longer a top prospect or even cut. The trade examples above with Romo, Dyson, and Capps all are less than spectacular results on both sides, with Romo probably being the best one for the Twins. There is a risk in trading. There is a risk in not trading. Obviously, the more the FO makes the right choices on both sides of the coin, the better the team will be both long term and short term.
  4. TwinsAce
    I agree with Tony&Rodney. Ryan doesn't really seem to fit at the moment. Winder might be a better fit, but even that doesn't quite fit perfectly. Kiriloff and Lewis need to be on this, most likely with Buxton and Duran.
  5. TwinsAce
    ...And maybe, just maybe, Correa too? Or honestly Larnach is a pretty good 5-7 batter.
  6. TwinsAce
    That stretch in April and May was rough....really even up until late May. Lots of up and downs, being pulled before a scheduled start, coming in relief, etc. And being in the 40 this off-season was also rough. I hope he continues to do well. I know a lot of us would like to see him in the bullpen.... because who doesn't want a live arm in the bp. But I know Cole enjoys starting so much more and really doesn't enjoy relieving. (Obviously can change, but?) Hopefully the next month goes well. It will be interesting to see if he is still here in August or not.
  7. TwinsAce
    This also subtly points out that the Tigers (75% save rate), Rockies (77%), & Orioles (79%) have a surprisingly decent bullpen, especially their closer/setup men. Looking at ERA for 8th inning or later, the top teams are Tigers, Braves, Phillies, and Orioles (with Rockies at 6). If you look at 7th inning or later, the Tigers are #3. 9th inning or later? Yankees, Mets, Orioles, & Rockies. Time to start trading for them... Tigers: Fulmer, Soto, Jimenez, etc? Orioles: Lopez, Tate, Akin, Bautista, Perez, etc? Rockies: Bard, Colome (lol), Kinley, etc?
  8. TwinsAce
    I love seeing when a rookie (like Palacios or even Sands) is called up, struggles, is sent back down, but then dominates or improves at AAA. The taste of big league pitching/hitting combined with the big league players and coaches seems to jolt some of them out of AAA doldrums and get them focused again. (Doesn't always mean long-term success at MLB level still, but fun to see.) The 40 and 26 man rosters seems really full...especially when considering some of the IL or 60 day IL players. I really hope they can get Steer up at some point though, potentially for 3B.
  9. TwinsAce
    This shows we have 2 guys we trust plus another 2-3 at any given time that we trust. Unfortunately, this is constantly changing and doesn't give confidence for the playoffs or against top teams. Joe Smith I still trust if he comes in to cleanup the inning. Pagan if he doesn't throw the cutter and can get strikes with his other pitches. Thielbar should be trustworthy... I imagine the Twins are hoping for clarity over the next month on two rehabbing pitchers. Alcala and Maeda. If both of them are on track by the deadline, I could imagine the Twins only trading for one reliever max and focusing on a starter instead. Those two would slot in above Jax, which would be amazing.
  10. TwinsAce
    Poor Franmil Reyes. He gets the 7th inning going by hitting the double to left to put Oscar at 3rd. But then Clement gets the easy out at home for Gonzalez. And then with one out, Franmil "runs" home while Gio bobbles the potential double play ball. But Gio recovered in time to throw home and get Franmil out via the force out. IDK if Franmil thought that the inning was over regardless due to a double play, but it sure looked like he slowed down at the end before getting to home. Then, bottom of the 7th inning, Gio hits a ball to Franmil that he should have caught but missed it...and then proceeds to boot it around and let Gio hustle for a double. And finally, he had to face Duran in the 9th. Talk about a rough day. ? As a fan at the game, it was rough seeing Duran come out in the 9th. I'd imagine if Rosario hadn't been "hit" by Duran, Duran might have been given the full 9th inning. But as painful as it was, it was still a glorious win with lots of great pitching.
  11. TwinsAce
    If just looking at the current season, with Lewis out, I'd have Correa at number one. Celestino/Gordon can probably hold their own out in CF compared to Palacios at SS. And we already see this with Buxton managing his knee. (Although Palacios' defense would be comparable to Correa.) Although I wonder if Duran should really be listed here, potentially as high as 2 or 3. As the last few games have shown, the rest of our bullpen swings from decent outings to ....not so decent outings. Based on the rotating list of bullpen guys, we have arguably no option in our organization to replace Duran in the near future.
  12. TwinsAce
    The order was Larnach, Miranda (smaller one), and Urshela. To my knowledge, baseball savant is updated daily. But agreed, seems odd that Miranda doesn't have more stats filled out. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jose-miranda-669304?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
  13. TwinsAce
    Agreed on the rotation. With Smeltzer doing well and Archer holding on, Ryan and Gray have a chance to lead this team on a hot streak. FWIW - Below are Larnach's, Miranda's (SSS), and Urshela's savant profiles.
  14. TwinsAce
    This morning there was an updated article on Maeda with Gleeman's mailbag, which mirrors Twins Twitter in the past week. TJ isn't a guarantee, but at the moment, Maeda is on track for August/September. The OP might not have linked the best article, but the premise and timeline is still accurate while still taking into account the uncertainty. Personally, I am excited and hoping that Maeda can come back in time for September and be a postseason bullpen arm. With how much time Maeda puts into his craft, I don't anticipate as much struggles as some. https://theathletic.com/3364727/2022/06/17/twins-mailbag-kirilloff-maeda-jeffers/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
  15. TwinsAce
    Thanks for doing the work and looking at this a little bit further. The Athletic article below about Arraez was interesting. One of the points was on Arraez's home run against Cole. Valdez and Arraez had practiced the inside pitch that day to be ready for Cole going inside. Good preparation for a pitcher can make a pretty big impact. I know Valdez is technically not the Twins hitting coach. But coaching plans might be similar for the other players. Could it be that at times, the Twins struggle when they come across a pitcher who they make one plan for, but then deviates from the typical plan? (And/or they struggle against the bullpen because they prepared one way, but then have to face the various pitchers instead of one pitcher?) Maybe those pitchers are either the younger unknown or a struggling pitcher who had to change their process? I don't know if this would improve in the playoffs. Part of me says yes, because they can plan even more for specific relievers. But at the same time, the other team can also plan ahead and deviate more than normal. Just a thought though. https://theathletic.com/3366299/2022/06/15/twins-luis-arraez/
  16. TwinsAce
    I agree - crazy to see how he is doing by keeping "healthy" and really excited to see how this ends. A few stats stuck out to me below. You really can tell that his knee has been bothering him with that XBT%. He really hasn't been pushing the extra bases like in years past. That BAbip also seems really low. We saw that the last few weeks when he was in the "slump" but had some really good ABs and contact. The Fly ball rate is a lot higher this year though, so in that sense, it makes sense the BAbip is lower. Maybe that also impacts his XBT% since less slow grounders making it it to the OF to make into a double? His WAR is a lot lower, partially because of playing so much DH instead of CF. Weird to see his dWAR at -0.1. And surprisingly, his HR% is still behind 2020. And 2021 his WAR sticks out in just 61 games at 4.5. The last three years have been great for Buxton, but they been unique in how he shows that greatness.
  17. TwinsAce
    And if it is to be talked about, might as well give us a few names mentioned in the Bridge Player FA section. I was originally thinking 4 SS options was going to be specific names vs. the summary. (IE - Correa, Swanson, Palacios, and ...Aledmys Diaz?)
  18. TwinsAce
    Minor adjustment, but this was Sands second start at home this week. I hope he continues in the right direction as a starter. He really doesn't like relief pitching...
  19. TwinsAce
    Correa might not be the MVP from the first third of the season, but I think his impact was pretty significant. Even though his numbers were down, he didn't fail on defense. Even though the team was losing, he seemed to have a good attitude and belief in the team. I wonder if this team would have turned things around so quickly without Correa on the team...Definitely a different clubhouse feel this year it seems.
  20. TwinsAce
    Loved it - well written.
  21. TwinsAce
    I must confess...I also went to Iowa this week for work. I shall try to avoid Iowa until Thanksgiving.
  22. TwinsAce
    Fast forward to 2024. Arraez is up to the plate, bottom 9th with the winning run on 3rd with bases loaded and 2 out. With the Robo umpires, he has been getting on base 55% of the time and leads the league in average. First pitch is close and called a strike. Arraez nods his head in agreement. Second pitch is close as well, but just outside and called ball. Fast forward 6 pitches, including several foul balls and 2 more balls, the payoff pitch is in. It is called a strike, but looked to be high. Arraez shakes his head no... Robot umpire pauses and then apologizes profusely. There appears to have been an update pushed out by Microsoft mid at bat that caused the calibration to get off. After updating for 15 minutes and restarting and recalibrating, the robot umpire confirmed the ball call and the Twins win!! Next up, opening day in Minneapolis!
  23. TwinsAce
    And you won't have to worry about an innings limit for Maeda, other than health and stamina.
  24. TwinsAce
    It's been fun watching Arraez seemingly do well at 1B. Makes me think back to Moneyball...just need to score runs sometimes. I also agree with some of the posts above that AK is probably our best defensive 1B. Miranda isn't bad, but I've been disappointed in how he looks in the field, especially at 1B. Still an exciting prospect, but confirms why he isn't considered a ++ defender.
  25. TwinsAce
    And the final piece missing: Ryan Jeffers .192/.272/.370, 94 OPS+, 3 HR. (Also .6 WAR vs. .1 WAR by Garver in 5 less at bats.) I'd argue that was the biggest question mark from the deal. Could Jeffers prove to be the best catcher of the 3?
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