Road trip
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Everything posted by Road trip
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There's a cost to the Tampa/Cleveland model not stated: fan apathy. As a fan it's hard to watch the roster churn constantly. This is especially true of casual fans. Over the long haul this shows up in attendance, which equals revenue. Now Tampa has some built-in attendance problems to be certain. Bad stadium in a bad location, a team with a short history, and a city full of transplants who have loyalties to other franchises. But Cleveland? Gosh, they were attendance monsters two decades ago. Jacobs Field was packed from the mid 90s to the early 2000s when Cleveland had good teams and a stable roster. They had a long string of drawing 3 million fans a year. Now, even in the good years, Cleveland is near the bottom of the league in attendance. That fan base has really tuned out, and they've rarely cracked 2 million in attendance the past 15 years. So, yes, the Cleveland model might incrementally improve the roster and help sustain a certain level of success, but it also comes at a cost.
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Actually, not quite. 2 run HRs on 5/31, 6/20, and 6/26.
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The lack of RBI's is indeed becoming mind-boggling, no doubt. The narrative on Wallner has been set I guess, but he has hit some valuable home runs this year. I have too much time (apparently), so I'll list them here: July 12, Wallner homers with the Twins already up big. July 9, Cubs, Wallner homers in the 2nd to put the Twins up 3-0. They won 4-2. July 3, Marlins, Wallner homers to go from behind 4-0 to behind 4-1, which was the final score. I suppose this one isn't worth much if you think a 4-0 lead is insurmountable. Jun26, Mariners, Wallner homers with the Twins already up big. June 20, Brewers, Wallner homers with the game out of reach. June 10, Rangers, Wallner homers with the game out of reach June 7, Toronto, Wallner homers in the 6th to put the Twins up 3-2. They went on to lose by a run. June 5, A's. Wallner homers in a game out of reach. May 31, Mariners, Wallner homers in the 2nd to put the Twins up 3-0. They lost. April 9, KC, Wallner homers in the 8th to put the Twins up 3-0. So...likely 4 clearly valuable homers, and maybe a 5th on July 3rd out of 10 total HRs. I don't know if that is pretty typical or pretty bad. Obviously we'd all prefer he'd save all homers for tie games, but it rarely works that way.
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Sure, Wallner would bring something. But if you trade him now you are selling low. If you have concluded Wallner is not part of the long term plan I think you hold him for now, hope he has a better 2nd half, and then sell high(er) in the off season. If you want to sell an outfielder now I think I would move either Bader or Larnach. Bader is likely gone next year anyway, and for a contending team that needs a CF he is an obvious fit for the duration of the season. Larnach, meanwhile, is having a season that is exactly in his expected range of outcomes. He won't be worth more in the off season than what he would be worth today. Larnach likely won't bring back as much as Wallner though, as after 1500 plate appearances everyone kind of knows what he is, so you can't sell any blue sky...
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- carlos correa
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Yeah, I cringed too. Quentin is obviously his own individual and may have a completely different personality, but Delmon is one of my least favorite Twins of recent history. That Garza and Bartlett for Young and Harris trade has to go down as one of the worst Twins trades this century.
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Pirates (Burrows) vs Twins (TBD): 7/12, 1:10pm
Road trip replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Saw a news report that said CC plans to play tomorrow. We shall see... -
There's certainly history there of this FO dealing with the Dodgers. The Graterol for Maeda trade worked out fairly well for both sides. I would rather not talk about the Margot trade however...
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It's too bad. I suppose he may get a chance in another minor league system. At worst he will get a shot overseas or in the American Association. He could launch a lot of HR's for Fargo/Sioux Falls/Sioux City. That league is full of former minor leaguers who just weren't quite good enough but still want to play for a small paycheck and a chance.
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The hardest part for him may be remaining a Twin past July 31 if some contender's CF gets hurt and the Twins turn into sellers.
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I'm similar. It's a tough gig, with the payroll/revenue deck being stacked against them. They may not be quite good enough to get where we would all like to be. Development of many top prospects has stalled, which may be an injury and coaching thing more than a FO selection thing. Philosophically, the roster looks like it is a bit stuck fighting the last war (big, slow, powerful position players that would have been very desirable, circa 2018) instead of designed for the way the game has evolved. One thing I will credit them with is finding some value from the waiver wire and low draft picks. We all cringe and joke about this, but its a skill set that low payroll teams benefit from. In the past three years they have found real value in other team's castoffs: Castro, Stewart, and this year Clemens being the prime examples. You could argue that the Twins go dumpster diving too much, or sometimes give too long a leash to their selections (Bride), but I think the payroll limitations mean they have to try. They've also had some low draft picks do very well: Varland, Ober, Sands. With both of these groups there have been far more misses than hits, but that's the nature of fixing or developing players who have flaws in their profile. So, I might give the FO a grade in the B range. Problem is the Twins need an A to compete against the big spenders. Tough gig indeed.
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Cubs (Rea) vs Twins (Paddack): 7/10/25, 12:10pm
Road trip replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
How fast things change... 3 weeks ago half of Twins Daily was ready to sign Paddack to an extension, and considered him far too valuable to trade. He's probably not as bad as he's shown the last five starts, nor as good as he showed in May-early June. It's a long season, for good or ill. -
Also getting Duran for Eddie E (loved Eddie, but that one worked out well). Getting Maeda for Graterol was probably a minor win, given the Graterol hasn't quite become the stud many hoped for. Jake Odorizzi seems like ancient history now, but that was also a good get... gave up nothing of value. But yeah, overall, they are maybe hitting .500 at best on trades as we could also name several that didn't work out.
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Just to play devil's advocate... Joe Ryan looks like an ace today. He's 29. But last year at age 28 he was just "fairly good", 7-7, 3.60 ERA, 2.3 WAR. The year before he wasn't even that, 1.5 WAR. Maybe this year's production is his new normal. Maybe Ryan will be the next Santana/Verlander/Scherzer who will have many years of sustained excellence. But I kind of doubt it...we've seen flashes of greatness from many pitchers over the years, and there are mighty few pitchers who become an ace for a half decade or more. Most just have a great season that is an outlier. Right now his value is at a peak. Buy low, sell high on stocks and baseball players. There's a chance you are trading away the next Verlander for a pack of prospects. There's probably a much better chance that you are trading away something far less than that though... It does have to be a very substantial offer of multiple good players...but you have to consider it, as the 2025 Joe Ryan may just be an outlier season.
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I smiled a bit, and then suddenly I feared that Keuchel is going to throw 5 shutout innings against the Twins in August...
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While Jeffers will never win a gold glove, I think you have to call him a development success story. My recollection is that he was considered a really raw, bat-first catcher out of college. He now looks like he may be the best player taken in the 2nd round of the 2018 draft. (and we will conveniently ignore the catcher taken in round 3 by the Mariners... but everyone passed on him at least twice).
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Here's the rub: If Bader keeps up this pace he is likely going to get more than his $10 million option on the open market. There aren't many free agents this winter who can play a good CF and potentially hit well, and at age 31 this is Bader's last realistic chance to lock up a multi-year deal. What's his incentive to sign for a single year? However, if Bader's bat regresses to his 2022-2024 levels for the rest of this year (OPS+ range of 69 to 87) do you still want him back for $10 million? Back to the main topic, yeah I'd trade Stewart at the deadline for a good catching prospect as I don't expect Stewart to remain healthy long term, but I've sort of given up on making the playoffs this season.
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Pretty good summary, unfortunately. It's increasingly looking like Larnach is best suited to be a platoon DH, emergency outfielder. Back in the days of 10 man pitching staffs, you could carry a guy like that on the roster for a long time and derive some value (Randy Bush would be an example). With the advent of big bullpens and short benches it gets tough to fit Larnach in to any kind of long term plan. If/when the Twins decide to sell, Larnach could potentially be a candidate. Some contender might need a decent left handed bat. He's not without value, but if this is his ceiling he is also replaceable.
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Quite a turnaround for that franchise. They've been mediocre to outright bad the past half decade. We can only hope to see sudden improvement like that down the road.
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Indeed, Manuel Margot says "hi".
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Point one, yes, that is truly an amazing year the Cubs lineup is having. Carson Kelly's past would indicate that this half-year is an unsustainable fluke, but Kyle Tucker is gonna keep on hitting like always I suppose, and it is possible that Michael Busch might too. And I also strongly disagree on Witt. He's arguably the most exciting player in MLB, and much like Buxton is carrying the Royals offense almost by himself. Unlike Buxton, he's been blessed with great health throughout his time in MLB.
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Simeon Woods Richardson Has A New Pitch
Road trip replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Still only 24. He will get stronger. He will get smarter with experience. He's just a #4 or #5 level starter at this point, but with a little luck and a lot of effort developing that splitter perhaps he can slot in as a #3 in a year or two? Gotta hope so... Good story! -
Recency bias is a terribly strong thing. Wallner has had a long string of poor games, no doubt. His career as a whole thus far has been quite good, as Nick correctly noted. For those complaining about lack of RBI's, consider the following stats for his career: RISP - BA .264, OBP .382, SLG .536 - That's exceptional in this era. ANY runners on base - BA .271, OBP .375, SLG .527 - also exceptional. Wallner doesn't lack RBIs because he "only hits empty solo home runs". He doesn't rack up RBIs because the Twins have a lousy team OBP. In his entire career, he only has 304 plate appearances with runners on base. He knocked in 80 in those 304 PAs. Not too bad... I don't know where Wallner will go from here, but to give up on him because of a bad three week stretch seems foolish. However I am quite confident that recency bias will rear its head again, and by August we will be complaining about some other player who has hit a rough patch.
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For kicks, I actually looked this up. His OPS+ this year is 39. Jim Kaat, a pretty good hitting pitcher, had a career OPS+ of 37 😐 It takes some really elite defense to make up for a bat that bad. As for the article, I guess I'm open to trading Jeffers for the right return. Jeffers is good, but not great, and soon to be expensive (Boras). The real problem as noted by many is that there is no obvious replacement for next year, which would necessitate some serious off-season shopping. This season I have largely given up on...
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Yup, Mauer and Perkins both went through this. They were consistent punching bags for many fans. Heck, many were ready to give up on Louie Varland last year, and this year he is one of the most reliable arms on the team. We are the opposite of Yankee fans, who sometimes seem to think every player in the starting lineup is HOF-worthy..
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Well, they say you can never have too much pitching... and Bride had a better ERA in his time with the Twins than Joey Wentz. 😁
