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Road trip

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Everything posted by Road trip

  1. Road trip
    Yes, Ramirez has a decent shot, and he shouldn't be overlooked. Right now he probably makes the "Hall of Very Good". JAWS and the BRef HOF monitor don't seem to love him, but he's young enough yet that a few more good seasons could get him in. He's one of those opposing players that I absolutely don't want to face with the game on the line.
  2. Road trip
    That's fair. The bullpen has mostly been pretty good, and thankfully the FO has been willing to swap out pitchers who were not working out (Jackson). I'm still not certain I trust Okert, and I had hoped Funderburk would be a little better. Bullpen losses are somehow more viscerally painful, but every team gets a few of those.
  3. Road trip
    Well, Cleveland is on a pace to win 107. In MLB history, only 8 teams have won that many, and they were all chock full of Hall of Famers. Cleveland likely has...idk, probably 0 obvious HOF caliber players. Also, all but two of those 107+ win teams pre-date the expansion era. Could Cleveland finish strong and win like 95-98 games? Yeah, I think that is possible. If that happens the Twins won't catch them.
  4. Road trip
    The good news: No chance Cleveland maintains this pace. The less good news: I kinda doubt the Twins maintain their torrid pace in one-run games. Even when Lewis comes back to form, I think the Twins offense is simply going to be mediocre or slightly better. Too many poor hitters (Vazquez, Santana, Margot, Farmer) with limited upside getting too many plate appearances. The starters have been a relatively pleasant surprise. Pablo hasn't quite met expectations, but SWR has certainly exceeded them. Must keep them all healthy! The bullpen certainly hasn't been "best in the league", or even close. Hopefully Alcala will be part of the answer for the duration of the season, and I hope Stewart's return comes soon, although the lack of recent updates is troubling. The bullpen is the spot where I have more hope for improvement. Defense is what it is. Buxton and Correa are outstanding. Kepler and Santana are good. Everything else is kind of meh.
  5. Road trip
    I suspect its Kepler for the high leverage at bat (good call)... Julien hitting for Margot shortly, Kepler to RF.
  6. Road trip
    Lots of borderline AAA/MLB catchers out there for backup duty. Sandy Leon just signed a deal with the Royals. Grandal to the Pirates recently. Curt Casali to the Giants a couple of weeks ago. Jorge Alfaro has an opt-out on June 1 with the Red Sox. Mike Zunino retired in March after nobody picked him up... bet he'd welcome a call. Are any of them better than Vazquez? Likely not. But they will all play for close to MLB minimum.
  7. Road trip
    Should they? Yes, assuming Kepler finishes a solid year. Sometimes you have to be willing to "spend money to make money". Possible outcomes/options: A. Losing Kepler as a FA without the qualifying offer is just that, a net loss in team assets. B. Losing Kepler as a FA after making a qualifying offer is basically neutral, and clearly positive to option A, as the draft pick has a value that *might* eventually offset the loss of Kepler. C. If the offer is accepted, keeping Kepler for 20ish million may seem like a bit of an overpay, but is still likely preferable to option A. The Twins have frequently paid players in the 5-10mil range that frankly were just not good or were injury prone. Might as well double the amount and get a reasonably sure thing. D. Not discussed (and extremely unlikely) would be signing Kepler to a longer deal. He's likely too old and expensive, with the next generation of outfielders likely ready by 2026. Will they make the qualifying offer? Hard to say at this time. I think its a little unlikely given their sudden reluctance to spend. Kepler seems well-liked by the fan base, but I don't perceive that he is loved like a Hrbek or Kirby. If he leaves he would be mourned a little by fans but they would move on to cheering for the next right fielder.
  8. Road trip
    If he stays with the Twins, it'll likely be some combination of 1B and DH, as I doubt Royce moves off of 3B. For either of those bat-first spots, Miranda's hitting will need to continue to show improvement to be a significant asset. His likely path to regular playing time may come via a trade to another team that really needs to upgrade their 3B. His bat will play there, and his defense likely grades as adequate. While I like Miranda in many respects he could bring back a valuable return to fill any of the Twins many holes.
  9. Road trip
    How can anyone believe Okert is a superior option vs continuing with SWR? Madness, even if it works.
  10. Road trip
    Many, many things have gone wrong this year. Injuries, poor hitting, odd playing time decisions. But for me the top of the list is a disappointing bullpen. I knew there would be injuries, because that's what the Twins always seem to have. I suspected the hitting would be middle of the pack at best, especially once Lewis was injured. Odd lineups? Well, yeah, Rocco's gonna Rocco, and the front office brought in a bunch of very marginal vet bats (Santana, Margot). But the bullpen...yeah, like many I thought they would finally be pretty solid. Nope, even Duran has had issues. On the positive side, the starting pitching at least has exceeded my expectations, at least at the back of the rotation (Pablo has regressed, obviously).
  11. Road trip
    Santana killed the Twins back in the teens, sure. He may be a good, even great teammate... I certainly can't judge that. His glove is probably solidly above average yet. I'd have loved to have Santana circa 2015. I'd have liked Santana circa 2018. But it's 2024. He's 38. Father Time is undefeated. I'm not sure it even looks like a decent signing now. I'll wager it'll look bad again by July, especially if he continues to get the majority of his AB's against right handed pitchers.
  12. Road trip
    Ouch, I mean, yes, he has thrown to the wrong base multiple times (lack of experience in LF) and doesn't seem to get a great jump on balls. But worst? Worse than Sano in RF? Worse than Delmon Young? Robbie Grossman? Worse than Ben Revere 4-hop throws to the cutoff man? And that's just in the past twenty or so years. Back to St Paul, yes, Martin's the logical person to send down at this point, but it is too early to lose hope for further development. He will have to hit much better to be a contributor. He may still get there, or he may not.
  13. Road trip
    I saw the article picture on the main page and immediately thought "Gaetti wearing #2"?? It just immediately looked wrong. I'd never seen the Hrbek and Winfield combo card before. That's kinda cool. Fleer did some interesting things in their short run..
  14. Road trip
    Great question. You inspired me to look it up: Killebrew, Kaat, Mauer, Oliva, Hrbek, Alison, Pascual (counting some years in Washington), Bush, Carew, Guardado, Hunter, Perkins, Puckett, Radke, Aguilera, Blyleven, Cuddyer, Hocking, Morneau, Buxton, Gaetti, Gagne, Perry, Polanco, Reese, and Smalley all got to 10 years or more. A couple of those names really surprised me. The vast majority of these guys are in the Twins HOF.
  15. Road trip
    Can't pass up the opportunity to bring up the 1987 Joe Niekro emory board incident, a great moment in Twins history... He was at the end of an illustrious ball scuffing career, and one of several desperation retreads the Twins tried that year (also a 60 year old Steve Carlton). Watch the video, smile, and be happy 😁
  16. Road trip
    That 2013-2015 run was brutal...and belongs to the previous front office.
  17. Road trip
    I dunno, Martin had to dive to get a glove on it. Not sure I've ever seen that scored an error. Now he may have gotten a poor jump... that I don't know.
  18. Road trip
    I don't personally believe that a pitcher must be drafted in order to "pipeline-qualify", but the draft record hasn't been terrible. They've hit on one or two good/useful pitchers every year that remain with the club: 2016: Jax 2017: Ober 2018: Sands, Funderburk, 2019: Varland 2020: only 5 rounds, weird Covid draft, anything more recent is too soon to judge. Meanwhile, they used a bunch of high picks to grab Lewis, Jeffers, Larnach, Julien, Miranda, Kirilloff, and Wallner. Sure, there have been some misses too, but I'm reluctant to complain too much about the draft and development record of this front office. I've seen worse eras.
  19. Road trip
    That's an awfully high standard. Plenty of teams will make the playoffs with less than that. Rangers last year, top 5 starters for most of the year only had one guy with a FIP under 4 (Eovaldi). They did add Montgomery late which certainly helped. Their season turned out ok... Ryan is a solid enough starter. Not an ace, but a guy who is part of the rotation on any MLB team lucky enough to have him. Call him a 2, a 3, a 4, whatever... just give him the ball every 5 days and he will put you in a position to win more often than not. Regarding the "pipeline", sure, I wish there were more guys ready in the minors, but the caliber of Twins mlb pitching is so much better now than it was a decade ago.
  20. Road trip
    Kirilloff with another day off. Injured, or just giving him a mental breather? Margot starting again against a tough right hander. Santana at 1B against a tough right hander. A day off for Correa, which may well be needed. Not sure he's had a game off since returning from IL? So.... yeah, not exactly loving this lineup but I'll hope for the best. E Julien (L) 2B R Jeffers (R) C T Larnach (L) RF M Kepler (L) DH J Miranda (R) 3B W Castro (S) SS M Margot (R) LF C Santana (S) 1B A Martin (R) CF
  21. Road trip
    Yes, Margot is part of the problem. If he played less he would be less of a problem, but frankly he doesn't offer much under any circumstances. So it is mildly fixable if his usage is limited. The good news is that Margot is only a part time platoon problem. In my mind the bigger problem remains that Santana is playing every fricking day. Even with his recent "hot" streak in April, Santana is "hitting" .148/.250/.250 vs right handed pitching. That's unplayable at 1B, no matter how good his glove is (and he already has 3 errors at 1b). Oh, and as feared, he's a single PA short of leading the Twins in plate appearances. If anyone needs a platoon partner, its Santana.
  22. Road trip
    Yeah, you may be the only one who would prefer Rortvedt overall. Good defensive catcher, not at all likely to continue hitting. Currently sporting a BABIP over .500 - that isn't even remotely sustainable.
  23. Road trip
    Don't think the stats have any validity after an entire 10 game sample. Check back at 90 or so games. He's plenty fast. His arm is just ok, but it's not like he's Ben Revere...
  24. Road trip
    I hope it is a minor blip, and not a foreshadowing of the season to come. But that's a hope. Lots and lots and lots of starting pitchers are great for a year or two. Very few are great for a half decade. Those rare pitchers that are great for a full decade are usually Hall of Famers. The difference in those who can sustain their success??? I honestly don't know... health is certainly part of it, but other factors must be involved as well. Pablo is currently in category 1, great for a year or two. I want to believe he will reach category 2, great for a half decade. Might get there, might not. Johan hit that mark, as did Viola a few decades ago. I'd take a good half decade in a second, because it is rare. We all want to believe in his potential for sustained greatness, obviously, but only time will reveal what will play out.
  25. Road trip
    No major sport makes a mess of broadcast rights quite like MLB. The big franchises (NY, LA, Bos, etc) want to protect the current "every man for himself" local broadcast rights system because it gives them a massive financial competitive advantage. But long term the current system is extremely counterproductive. MLB is struggling to attract new fans for a variety of reasons, but the difficulty of watching the local team play in local markets is a big part of the problem. Fixing this should be a top priority, but it won't be because NY, LA, Bos, etc...
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