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Road trip

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Everything posted by Road trip

  1. Road trip
    Joey Gallo had one injury-shortened year where his OPS+ was better than 121. For his career he's at 109. Even in his youth when he was hitting 40 homers a year his on base average was miserable. Wallner has a career OPS+ of 139, and 149 this year. He's improved a bit, but mostly he is what he has always been despite the many doubters. Gallo's stat rates are far in the rear view mirror, no matter how much you want to run Wallner down by making the comparison. If you don't think Lewis is playing hurt you must not be watching him run this year compared to how he ran in the past.
  2. Road trip
    Lewis will be better next year, I hope. Looks like he needs a little time to get healthy, and some instruction to reevaluate his approach. I still like his potential, but he looks like he is trying to hit a 5 run homer every time he comes up. Remember when he used to hit the other way, often with power? Everything gets pulled now, even trying to pull pitches 6 inches off the plate. That's a disease that has affected a large number of Twins hitters.
  3. Road trip
    Good mention on Rogers, as he also had a nice run. I certainly hope Jax catches or exceeds Perkins, but right now Perkins is way ahead of Jax. Give Jax 2 to 3 more good years and he might equal Perkins, though I doubt he ever comes close to the number of saves Perkins has, or his string of All Star Game appearances.
  4. Road trip
    Glen Perkins didn't work out as a starter, but he was a very good reliever for a few seasons and just fits under the "developed in the last two decades" mark.
  5. Road trip
    Detroit is a fascinating story. They really came out of nowhere. Addition via subtraction. At this point I believe the Twins are more likely to finish ahead of KC than Detroit, as the Tigers get to wrap up the season against the White Sox. KC is pretty much in a free fall just like the Twins, and they have to finish with a 6 game road trip. I don't really like the odds for the Twins to finish ahead of either team in the wildcard race though. And yes, to echo Chief, Puk would have made all the difference this year.
  6. Road trip
    Correa at SS, at least for next year and likely beyond. Plantar fasciitis will be just as much a problem at 1B, and Correa's best defensive attribute is his arm which would largely be wasted at 1B. Brooks Lee's glove will play somewhere eventually, if his bat develops. I actually expect him to start next year in AAA because he looks overmatched by MLB pitching at this point. 280 PA's at AAA apparently wasn't enough, and frankly his .830 OPS at that level doesn't indicate that he had mastered it. Beyond Lee there are no other alternatives to Correa on the roster I would trust as a full time SS.
  7. Road trip
    Usually Randball Stu's writing is obviously fictional. This one, not so much...
  8. Road trip
    Sure does feel that way, but fortunately it's just a feeling. "Momentum? Momentum is the next day's starting pitcher" - Earl Weaver Earl knew how to keep a team going. Go get'em SWR.
  9. Road trip
    And the ghost of Ron Davis... 👻 Actually, that's unfair to both Pagan and Davis. Both are/were better pitchers than many of the guys in the bullpen this year.
  10. Road trip
    I do believe this is a big part of the problem. Young bodies are being built up through strength training before they are ready. Players from the 1980s had never lifted weights in their youth (or, at least, not around where I lived). Players from the 1990s *might* have done some limited weight training in their youth, but probably not much. Things have really changed for young athletes since this era. I don't think it is a coincidence that near universal weight training for young athletes coincides with the increased injury rates we have seen at MLB in the past two decades. It is a problem for MLB, even if a fix is elusive. MLB is fast becoming like the NFL... at the end of the year, the teams that have suffered fewer injuries have a big advantage.
  11. Road trip
    While I hope Margot goes 4 -4 tonight, it is disheartening to see him starting against a right handed pitcher, and a good one in Bibee with pretty severe platoon splits at that. I guess Larnach is so dinged up that playing left field is out of the question, and there simply are no other outfielders left. On the bright side, Correa is back as well as Miranda. No Buxton though. W Castro (S) CF M Wallner (L) RF C Correa (R) SS C Santana (S) 1B T Larnach (L) DH J Miranda (R) 3B B Lee (S) 2B M Margot (R) LF C Vázquez (R) C
  12. Road trip
    He can certainly sustain it for the duration of the regular season. That's a blip of time where any player can get or stay hot. For next year? No sustaining this isn't likely. I'd be a little surprised if Farmer gets a MLB contract next year. He'll get a spring training invite somewhere I assume, if he want it. However he's at nearly $17 million for career earnings, so money may not be his primary motivator. He's at the age where he might want to start thinking about what is next. Seems like he might make a good coach, so if some team made him that offer I wonder if he would consider that route at this time. Also, if he is as funny as his reputation I could see him in a broadcast booth. Bob Ueker has to retire one of these days... someone new needs to carry the torch.
  13. Road trip
    Certainly, the outcome you suggest is possible. But is it probable? At some point Father Time always wins, even if nobody knows exactly when that time will come. This year, looking around the league, the only hitter I see who was older than Santana and who was productive was Josh Turner. Santana's generation is largely gone. Given the very limited payroll the Twins have I think Branch Rickey's famous quote must be their guiding principle: "Better to get rid of a player a year too early, than a year too late".
  14. Road trip
    I mean... maybe he's the MVP? And that says a lot about what a weird year it has been for the Twins, because based on OPS he's their 6th best hitter. He just happens to be the only guy in that bunch who can stay healthy and play every day (or avoid the minors, see Wallner, Matt). With such an odd year for the lineup I'd give co-MVPs to Ober and Pablo. Like others I'm both stunned and pleased by his resurgence. But like others I'm also a no on bringing Santana back. Can't afford to spend limited payroll dollars on a 39 year old.
  15. Road trip
    Bats need to wake up in a big way. I mean maybe Zebby throws a gem, but that's asking a lot of a pitcher who started the year in A ball. Need 6 runs tonight, minimum, and that may not be enough. Got to get to Williams early because we know the Cleveland bullpen is very good.
  16. Road trip
    You are right, my mistake. For some reason I thought I had heard Cleveland had 3 lefties scheduled to start along with Bibee. Farmer is also my pick to click... what a strange thing to type.
  17. Road trip
    Ah yes, the dreaded LHP lineup. Gonna see this three times this series, I fear. I wonder if Wallner and Larnach will manage 10 plate appearances combined over the next four games? Somebody, anybody of the platoon subs needs to have a good stretch of at bats this week. Farmer? Margot? Vazquez? We need some unexpected contributions...
  18. Road trip
    Plenty of room on the struggle bus for one more. Can't go worse than the Richards acquisition, right? He's left handed and has a pulse, I guess. I'll hope for the best..
  19. Road trip
    Proper lineup spots for Buxton and Correa? Eh, who can tell. Under Rocco the lineup is never the same day to day anyway. The production expectations the next two weeks between Lewis, Wallner, Larnach, Miranda, Santana, Correa, and Buxton are pretty similar anyway. You could even add Jeffers to the list. At this point next week I expect a couple of them to be hitting well, a couple of them to be in slumps, and at least four of them to be playing hurt if they are playing at all. There is no Judge or Witt Jr type of hitter to build a lineup around, but the lineup will have pretty good depth no matter how you arrange it. All have some power. Most strike out more than ideal. None of them is a natural leadoff hitter, and none can run very well other than Buxton (if he were healthy). You could just about throw the names in a hat and draw them out randomly for the batting orders this week and be just as likely to get it right as if you went into a deep statistical analysis. I really don't care where they hit...I just hope they are somewhere in the lineup as much as possible.
  20. Road trip
    Actually, he is well above average on OBP when you take into account his HPB. His career bb% is over 10% which is above average (MLB approximately 8%). Add in all of his HPB and he has an on base percentage of .364 for his career. That's very good, more than 120 points better than his batting average and well above the MLB average OPB of .330 I don't know if he can sustain the HBP... that may be somewhat a fluke, and frankly even dinosaur bones will break at some point. But if he keeps his bb% above 9% he will continue to get on base plenty.
  21. Road trip
    Nah, I'll take the playoff spot and roll the dice. Twins could get hot and advance a ways. Maybe it's only a 5% chance or less, but that's still worth more than moving up a couple of spots in the draft order.
  22. Road trip
    Old friend Luis Arraez is back to his usual ways, leading the NL in hits and batting average by a comfortable margin. It kind of looks like 3 batting titles in a row is likely. Oh, and he hasn't struck out in a game since August 10... the longest such streak in over 20 years. He's doing this while suffering some of the worst reverse home/road splits I can remember. Most hitters thrive in the comfortable environments of home, but Petco has really suppressed his extra base power and hitting in general this year. At home: .273/.324/.330 - basically replacement level or worse on the road: .365/.390/.450 - elite level Nothing against the Padres, and this year may be a fluke, but if Petco continues to suppress his game this much I'd kind of like to see him move to a team with a ballpark where he can really thrive.
  23. Road trip
    You had me at his xERA, FIP, and xFIP—which are real stats, not leftover bureaucracies from Roosevelt’s New Deal
  24. Road trip
    Yes, I agree completely on Buxton and Correa, as they have a long unfortunate track record and I expect them to get hurt, esp Buxton. All the hurt young position players, many with soft tissue injuries, is where I'm wondering about strength training and conditioning. Lee, Miranda, Kirilloff, etc. ERod and Jenkins among others in the minors. Maybe it isn't abnormal and nothing could be done to prevent it, but it *seems* like a new thing. The Twins did fire their head trainer two years ago, but it seems things have not improved yet.
  25. Road trip
    Nowhere did I say "woe is Twins". Had you bothered to read further you would have seen I was questioning the training methods. And it isn't just the Royals who have had far fewer injuries.
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