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I Never Bet On Sports

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Everything posted by I Never Bet On Sports

  1. I Never Bet On Sports
    Overall looking at how Fangraphs projects 2024 WAR for MLB pitchers on the 40 man roster (starters and relievers combined), They have the Twins ranked fourth in MLB, 1st in the AL. Per Spotrac, the Twins also have the lowest payroll for pitchers at $34M in 2024. Oakland is second lowest at $37M. 1. Phillies 21.2 WAR $107M Payroll 2. Braves 20,.6 WAR $93M Payroll 3. Dodgers 20.1 WAR $82M Payroll 4. Twins 18.3 WAR $34M Payroll 5. Mariners 17.7WAR $44M Payroll 6. Astros 16.7 WAR $128M Payroll 11. Orioles 13.9 WAR $52M Payroill (yes this includes Corbin Burnes) 23. Rangers 13.7 WAR $142M Payroll I don't know that I agree that the Twins have the best pitching staff in the AL, but this is what the numbers are currently. I would love to see the Twins add a legit 1/2 starter through trade like the Orioles just did. However, I don't think the Twins get the credit they deserve for assembling the staff they have currently with the lowest ;pitching payroll in MLB. What am I missing?
  2. I Never Bet On Sports
    Cory, I wasn't analyzing that this trade makes us better this year vs. last year. I was stating that the trade makes us better in 2024 than we would have been if we did not make the trade. That is how I would measure an individual trade, vs the entire off season. So adding pitching depth at starter and reliever vs not adding any makes us better in both categories.
  3. I Never Bet On Sports
    I really like the trade long term but let's just focus on impact to 2024: 2nd base - Julien 2.6 WAR, Polanco 2.0 last year in similar usage Assuming this leads to more playing time for Julien and opens the door for Brooks Lee. - Twins got better but minimally Relief Pitching - Twins got better Starting Pitching - Twins got better but minimally DH - Twins got worse Payroll - Twins got better I think this trade makes the Twins better in 2024 not worse. This seems like the kind of trade Bill Belichick would make in his prime if he worked in baseball. Trade values say Twins got $25.3 Million in value and gave up $9.4 Million.
  4. I Never Bet On Sports
    Interesting comment from Seattle GM on Seattle Sports: “He’s a guy that we have liked and tried to acquire for years,” said Hollander. “I think I personally made more calls on this trade than I ever have on any trade before at the behest of both my own want to add him to our group, so a really big day for us. (I) feel like it makes us a lot better and excited to add him.” I think the Twins probably got the better end of the deal here, and it appears from the above comment that Seattle was the driver of this deal getting done thus potentially overpaying. Barring injuries, Twins got a bit stronger for 2024, and better for the future with a controllable reliever and two prospects. I would prefer the Twins use a piggyback for their 5th and 6th starters instead of moving Varland to the bullpen. DeScalfani and Paddack could be a good fit to pair, limiting their overall usage to minimize injury risk, with each throwing 3-4 innings per game (under 60 pitches) giving you 7-8 in their combined starts. Twins now have four of the top 79 prospects in baseball. Per Eno Sarris Twins starters before this trade ranked 12, 40, 48, 65, and 87th in baseball. Loved watching Polanco as a Twin, but overall I think this was a solid, not flashy, move for the Twins. Julien and Brooks Lee will be above average, high value options at 2nd for the next several years.
  5. I Never Bet On Sports
    I agree with you that it is very unlikely we start anyone on three days rest. That probably only happens if Ober, Ryan, and Maeda all pitch in the first series. Then it would be either Pablo on 3 days rest or Keuchel. My main point was that I like the idea of holding Gray for game 3 if we win game 1 in the wild card series. It is very likely Ober would start game 1 of round two if the wild card goes three games. In that five game series there are two travel days so Lopez could start game 2 on normal rest Sunday then game 5 on normal rest Friday - no game five kitchen sink needed.
  6. I Never Bet On Sports
    I would like to see Pablo start game 1. If we win game 1 I would start a Ryan/Maeda piggy back game 2. If we lose game 1 I would have Gray starting game 2. This sets up Gray for either game 2, 3 or game 1 and possibly 5 of round 2. If it takes 3 games to win round one Pablo goes on 3 days rest in game 1 of round 2 and also is available for game 5.
  7. I Never Bet On Sports
    They can pay up to $150k for each of those picks without impacting the cap. Same rule for rounds 11-20 so no impact to their signing these unless the Twins wanted to go over $150k for either of them.
  8. I Never Bet On Sports
    If the Twins are playing the "under slot" game I would prefer either Chase Dollander or Enruque Brafdield Jr. over Gonzales with the 5th pick. I am ok with not taking a HS player at this point to get someone who could possibly help sooner rather than later. Bradfield seems built for the new rules. .311 avg, 131 walks, 130 steals with over 90% success rate over 191 games. I would love to see the Twins running game get better. Dollander was expected to be a contender for the first overall pick but had an off year. He could be the steal of the draft if the Twins sent him to Driveline for improvement.
  9. I Never Bet On Sports
  10. I Never Bet On Sports
    What would you think of the Twins trading Bailey Ober now? Would the Mets consider trading catching prospect Kevin Parada A (#36 MLB Prospect) as they have Francisco Alvarez AAA (#3 MLB Prospect) ahead of him? Trade simulator puts Parada at 26.1 and Ober at 21.8. To be clear, I don't want to trade Ober, I think he should be in our starting five over Maeda with Maeda as a piggy back for Ober, However, the Mets might be willing to massively overpay in prospect capital to pick up another starter with minimal financial cost and multi year control to offset their injuries this year. Ober hasn't yet proven he can stay healthy through a full season.
  11. I Never Bet On Sports
    Really curious if you know if other teams are experiencing the same thing as the Twins as far as starting pitchers throwing harder earlier this spring training. I have heard you talk about several Twins starters throwing harder earlier, but would appreciate context if you have it if other teams are experiencing the same or if this is somewhat unique to the Twins.
  12. I Never Bet On Sports
    Great article and analysis. Twins have work to do. One set of stats here doesn't add up to me. What am I missing? How can opponents have a .122 BAA in two strike counts when he threw his sinker (which he threw 46.5% of the time in this situation) in Baltimore but also have a .044 overall average in two strike counts when he threw anything but his fastball in Baltimore? Was it supposed to be .144? If he did't get a hit on any other pitch including his fastball his overall 2 strike average would have to be at least .056(.122*46.5%= .056)
  13. I Never Bet On Sports
    I was able to purchase by going to the home page and searching winter meltdown. Also, it looks like the link works now
  14. I Never Bet On Sports
    I am not sure if the link is active yet, but as of 8:05 when I click it i get a message that Sorry your cart has expired and it doesn't allow me to purchase tickets
  15. I Never Bet On Sports
    Agree it was questionable to send him there. I was at the game, and a few other things concerned me on that play: Sano was slowing significantly rounding third and seemed to be spent. After the play he was very, very, slow to take the field for the next inning. He seemed to take forever to catch his breath and leave the dugout. I don't know if he got a bad jump on the hit but believe he should have been able to score on that play with an average jump for him at first with two outs. I have tried to find a replay to confirm but haven't found one. After losing 25 pounds I was hopeful he would live up to his potential. Maybe he is dealing with a cold or other issue (might also explain his poor at bats) but that looked very alarming to me.
  16. I Never Bet On Sports
    I think you have the rules wrong on Upton signing with the highest bidder. His old club (Angels) is responsible for paying his $14MM salary less whatever the new team pays him. So, unless someone wants to pay more than $14MM oer year, he will sign for the league minimum. He can't make more money unless he signs for more than the $14MM which won't happen. At this point he is probably deciding on best fit with salary not a consideration.
  17. I Never Bet On Sports
    I, for one, hope Dobnyk makes the club as a sixth starter preferably in a piggy back role with JA Happ to start the season. In 2019 Jake Odorizzi was a solid pitcher but he never seemed to be able to pitch more than six innings. For comparison 2019 J A Happ 30 starts 161 innings Jake Odorizzi 30 starts 159 innings. Seems like a good fit then to piggy back the one lefty starter who rarely goes past six innings with the righty Dobnyk and ask each to go 4 innings or so as we start the season. Then adjust for injuries, etc.
  18. I Never Bet On Sports
    Also, Berrios would not need to start game 3. He pitched Sunday and should pitch again this Friday on his normal 4 days rest, then would be available to pitch game 2 on Wednesday on 4 days rest again. What am I missing?
  19. I Never Bet On Sports
    Great perspective - agree I would take Wheeler over Maeda but really like this move the more I read and hear. Here are my thoughts last night when I heard the news: 2019 stats: Maeda/Wheeler WHIP 1.07 / 1.26 Avg.202/.258 ERA4.04 /3.96 2020 Salary$3-10MM/ $21.5MM I like the trade and even more what it says about our front office balancing win now with sustainable roster. Seems like great value for the money over the next four years.
  20. I Never Bet On Sports
    2019 stats: Maeda / Wheeler WHIP 1.07 / 1.26 Avg .202 / .258 ERA 4.04 / 3.96 2020 Salary $3-10MM / $21.5MM I like the trade and even more what it says about our front office balancing win now with sustainable roster. Seems like great value for the money over the next four years.
  21. I Never Bet On Sports
    What do you think of having Graterol paired with Odorizzi for every start? Have Jake start the game and go his normal 5-6 innings (or two times through the batting order) and then bring in Brusdar for 3-4 innings or at least one time through the batting order. This protects Jake as he seems to struggle that third time through and gives Brusdar a starter like schedule with reduced workload. This would also limit your bullpen use during this one out of every five games. You could then move Brusdar into a starter role if needed due to injury, etc. Not your true opener model, but something I would like to see the Twins try. Curious if there are any analytics showing differences in performance of a pitcher following certain types of pitchers - is Jake the best to pair Brusdar with or would there be a better contrast on the staff to have him follow? Also thinking this may protect Jake for the full year as well limiting his pitch count to 70-80 max per start.
  22. I Never Bet On Sports
    Is ti just me, or did Polanco seem tired this past week? I am a huge fan of his, but have noticed in the field he seems to be just missing grounders, made a few errors this month already but more concerned with the plays he is not getting to. Was glad to see him get a day off yesterday, We will need him to return to form. Thoughts?
  23. I Never Bet On Sports
    19-10 Best record in the majors tonight, I think I will focus on that stat alone for the next 24 hours, great job rotation!
  24. I Never Bet On Sports
    The Twins have the fewest losses in the majors so far this year. Let that sink in a moment, bring back the Lite Happy Music......
  25. I Never Bet On Sports
    Wondering if 2019 will be the year of the "shared starter" role. The Opener role seems to be catching on. I would love to see the Twins pair two starters, lefty righty or pitchers with two different styles / speeds where they routinely go 4 innings / 60 pitches max and then always go to the other starter for the next 4 innings / 60 pitches. I understand that would take 10 roster spots for all five starts in the rotation but could see a team do this with 8 starters and a 3 day rest rotation or just do this for your 5th/6th starters always paired together.
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