Nine of twelve

When you consider that baseball players typically reach top form between the ages of 25 and 30 and that players are drafted at age 18-22 with international signees being even younger I figure that it should take at least 3 years for Falvine's players to begin to have some impact and up to 12 years for them to dominate the roster. Also keep in mind it takes some time to assemble a strong scouting and player development staff. Being a baseball fan is not for the impatient.

IIRC, the same concerns were raised about Joe Nathan in 2004. Turned out he was able to produce at a satisfactory level in the regular season.

IMHO this is a flawed premise. Expected runs is not the benchmark to use. Win probability is the benchmark to use.

I'm not worried about people who are worried. I'm worried about people who are not worried.

I always wear one when I leave the house.

I agree. It has been shown that there are far too many people who have no regard for the safety of themselves and others when it comes to the pandemic, yet even though we have not achieved control of the situation the State is apparently relenting and allowing those people to attend games. I just hope the State's kindness and generosity don't backfire. Even though I have been vaccinated I'm staying away until the vaccination rate is much higher and the incidence of infection is much lower.

I think the decision about how this role should be filled should be made in the same way any other bullpen decision is made. Take into account the opposing lineup, how many batters the pitcher would be facing, who in the bullpen is fresh, who in the bullpen has or has not been pitching well recently, the game situation, the projected needs for the rest of that game and upcoming games, who is ready and available to be called up from St. Paul, etc. etc. etc.

Betting lines are not reliable indicators of the strength of teams. Betting lines are set based on how the entity setting the lines evaluates the bets placed on a team and the lines change with the ongoing placement of bets. The entity will set an O/U for internal use but that's not the same as the public betting line. If bets on a given team start to come in strongly on one side or the other this internal O/U the public betting line will shift because the entity will decide they are more likely to make more money if they move the line. For example, if a team is assigned an internal O/U of 80.5 but the entity can get a lot of people to bet on the over at 85.5 that's where the public betting line will be set. In the case of the White Sox, they have been one of the most active teams in trades and free agent signings. That has made their fan base more optimistic, and in such a situation the optimism is usually stronger than is realistic. That in turn makes it more likely that their fan base will place bets for them to have a higher level of success than is truly indicated. That in turn causes the O/U betting line to shift upward. So the high number on the White Sox O/U is based in large part on how likely it is for White Sox fans to make intelligent, realistic analyses of their team's chances. I won't comment on whether this is related: https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/coronavirus/white-sox-fans-drink-the-most-of-any-mlb-fan-base-study-shows/2453770/#:~:text=Chicago%20White%20Sox%20fans%20were,%22Booziest%20Baseball%20Fans%22%20list.

The Marx brothers were all supremely talented, but none more so than Arthur.

This had better be Cruz' last year with the Twins. Now that he's on the roster I hope he has a great season but it's time to move forward with the young'uns.

While I hope for the best this year for Happ it would certainly be great to see Thorpe blossom into a legitimate MLB starter. Very few teams win a world championship without at least one lefty in the rotation.

I agree with this post, but I'll nitpick and say that Boras isn't the one who moves a player. His client, the player, makes the final decision about whether to stay or go. However, Boras has deservedly acquired the reputation of being more aggressive about negotiating for his clients than most agents, presumably because a larger contract for his client gets him a larger cut. Also, I suspect that a player who puts the dollar amount of his contract as his highest priority is one who is more likely to choose Boras as his agent, which in turn makes it more likely Boras will be involved in these situations. It's kind of like a feedback loop. That said, in these situations Boras and the player are not being unethical. They are simply playing by the rules, exploiting the (inequitable) system. I think more extensive revenue sharing would benefit not only the majority of fans but also the majority of players. When only a few teams have much greater power to pay large contracts it means the few players getting those contracts benefit at the expense of other players. Giving all teams similar financial wherewithal would mean that player salaries will be more equitable, not just within a given team but within MLB as a whole. It also would mean players in one team's system have similar chances of succeeding as a player in another team's system, both in terms of on-field performance and in terms of salary. Think of it this way--compare a utility player for Kansas City to a utility player for the Dodgers. The two probably have similar performance profiles and so forth but which player will be more likely to have a higher salary and chance of postseason success? Which borderline minor league player will have a greater chance to be promoted to the majors, one in the KC system or one in the Dodger system?

Shouldn't there be a separate thread for how your contributors are ranked?

This is the name that must never be spoken. (Or written.)

Someone else alluded to the matter of whether there will be any grandfathering regarding any speculated changes in the service time provisions of the next CBA. The FO seems smart enough to take this into account. In any case it seems apparent that their philosophy is to do what they think is best for the franchise as a whole, and I expect they will make decisions on Kirilloff and the rest of the roster based on that.

Tampa Bay and Oakland have shown that lower-revenue teams can stay competitive enough consistently enough to challenge for the postseason almost every year. We can also do it with the right scouting and player development people, but it certainly would help to have a better revenue sharing program in place.

Rather than limiting the discussion strictly to LF I think the team should probably look at the outfield as a whole. Ideally there would be four players, each of whom can play at least two positions, with at least two players able to play at each position. Moreover, it would be best to have two LH batters and two RH batters. SH batters would be a bonus. Also a bonus is having Arraez available as an occasional fifth outfielder when it's necessary to get him in the batting order, especially against right-handed pitching. Looking ahead to the second half of 2021 and to 2022 it appears that Kiriloff has a good chance of playing a lot. Assuming that Buxton and Kepler are locks, that leaves one spot open. Cave is not a bad fourth outfielder but it would be better to have a right-handed batter. Even after trading Wade we still have a surplus of left handed bats in our outfield depth. I think Cave will be a strong candidate to be traded during spring training. My hope is that Rooker has a strong spring and is one of the 26 players going north.

It's unfortunate that Erickson's prime only really lasted two half-seasons.

Remember that Polanco got a 5-game taste of the Majors at age 20. We don't know exactly what the team thinks about Lewis but I could see him getting some appearances this season. (He'll be 22 in June.)

With the possible exception of pitcher, left field is the least important position in terms of fielding.

According to this source Target Field has the fifth-smallest foul territory among current major league venues, tied with Citi Field. http://www.andrewclem.com/Baseball/Stadium_statistics.html

I concur with those who point out that it's not just home runs that will be affected. There should be a slight decrease in the rate of ground balls getting through the infield, which means more ground ball outs. This would be most significant for grounders near the base lines, especially the first base line, in that what previously would have been doubles could be turned into outs. I expect that outfielders will be positioned a few feet shallower this season. If this is the case I would think that the rate of singles that fall in front of outfielders wouldn't change much. There may be an increase in the rate of doubles hit over a fielder's head but a decrease in the rate of doubles on other balls hit to the outfield. This positioning change would also make it a bit easier for baserunners to be thrown out, so coaches and baserunners will need to adapt.

After so many years of post-season pain and disappointment we Twins fans deserve favorable treatment from the baseball gods. It would be right and good and proper if every player on the roster has a 90th-percentile season.

I've posted this before, but I'll repeat. In addition to being far above and beyond his contemporaries as a batter Babe Ruth was also an elite pitcher. In terms of batting, fielding, and base running Mays may have been better than Ruth. Maybe. But Ruth was inarguably the best all-around player in baseball history.

This is a good point, and I think it's probably true in general, but with free agents there are are additional factors that lead to those exceptions. There may be teams that make a bid or want to make a bid but aren't considered because the player doesn't want to play there. Teams adjust their analytics based on need, so multiple teams may have essentially the same assessment of a player but one team may make a higher bid than another. And there may be intangibles that affect a bid, such as a player wanting to play for a hometown team or for a particular manager.