bean5302

Yeah, probably broken like it was a few years ago with BR's positional adjustments being double counted in their metrics. 2.2 vs 3.6 WAR is enormous for the same results. Using RA/9 + some broken DRS adjustment might make a big difference. It could be Daulton Varsho who was credited with a broken +28 defensive runs saved last year. I don't know exactly how BR is doing their WAR adjustment, but it's not trustworthy IMHO.

Zebby was under 50 IP, but he lost rookie status by 3 days. 48 days on the MLB roster so I'm pretty sure he's ineligible. I'd rank these guys as #1 Rodriguez. #2 Keaschall, #3 Raya, #4 Jenkins, #5 Olivar. Gotta make the big show first, but then have to potentially provide enough value/playing time to get noticed.

It might use RA 9 as a component, but there are major adjustments I don't understand. Jose Berrios ERA 3.60, ERA+ 112, RA9 3.70, 192.1 IP = 2.2 bWAR Aaron Nola ERA 3.57, ERA+ 114, RA 9, 3.79, 199.1 IP = 3.6 bWAR As far as I'm concerned Baseball Reference has some issues in WAR calculation.

The Twins are 100% committed to it now. They tendered Castro a contract so it's now fully guaranteed. I don't see any reason for Castro to agree to substantially less than the $6.2MM estimated by MLBTR for his arbitration value. It's not like a few years ago where teams could screw players over by agreeing to a contract without actually going to arbitration only to release the player before the start of the season to get out of the contract. That makes trading him, before spring when he still has value, the likeliest outcome under your assumption. If Castro winds up getting injured in normal daily life, the Twins are stuck with him. It's a risky game they're playing.

Especially Brian Duensing!

People around here talking about Kepler like he was Manny Margot or something. fWAR & bWAR 2016 = 2.0 & 2.4 2017 = 1.8 & 1.9 2018 = 2.4 & 3.5 2019 = 3.9 & 4.0 2020* = 2.9 & 2.6 2021 = 2.2 & 2.1 2022 = 1.5 & 2.1 2023 = 2.8 & 2.9 2024 = 1.0 & 1.0 *162/62 x WAR Kepler has averaged 2.1 fWAR and 2.5 bWAR per season for the last 9 years. Last year was the worst season of his career, and also the most injury shortened. Worst case scenario, he looks like a 1.5 WAR player. I think Kepler will probably be viewed like Wil Myers was in the 2022-2023 offseason, but without the negative connotations associated with an albatross contract. Myers got 1 year and $7.5MM from the Reds.

I mean, Punto did have that 1 good year back in 2006.

It's not ridiculous. A 3 WAR player is going to make about $18MM AAV. Edman's age does make the 5 years a bit long, but the total money means it's a great deal. I'm assuming Edman wanted more total money than AAV. The value is in the team control here. Castro's overall value for 1 year at $6MM will be significant, but I don't think Falvey has the skill necessary to make the tender/trade work based on his history.

Not what happened. You stated a borderline HoF career (similar to the 14yr, 129 OPS+ career Bobby Bonds had) would be a a disappointment for Walker Jenkins. Rather than admitting how far out there your position was, you deflected by saying Bobby Allison, who only played in 1,500 games in his career, was a better comp for 15yrs at 124 OPS+. Of course even implying that a 35 WAR career would be a disappointment is unreasonable in a vacuum. 35 WAR careers are rare (top 3-4% in MLB history). Only 7 position players have ever accumulated more than the 34 WAR Bobby Allison accumulated in a Twins uniform. Carew, Killebrew, Mauer, Puckett, Hrbek, Knoblauch. If Walker Jenkins turns into a career 25 WAR player like Max Kepler, he'll be an enormous success. I don't have a problem with people hoping for Juan Soto (who has more WAR than Ted Williams or Babe Ruth or Cal Ripken, Jr. through age 25), but those dreams aren't backed up in any kind of rationality. Jenkins' track record doesn't compare well with HoF type players.

Spotrac MV 3yrs $31MM ESPN Est. 2yrs $24MM MLBTR = 1yr Below $8MM Mets - It seems a popular speculation around here for 2024 Twins players who weren't good to end up in NY because the Mets can afford to spend, but the Mets can afford to spend on good players. Why would they spend on guys like Paddack or Kepler when they don't need to bottom feed? Mariners - Already have a veteran corner OF in Arozarena. Can't see them choosing Kep over the cheaper, and just as good (or better) Victor Robles. Rockies - Are cutting salary so I can't see them signing Kepler, though Coors would be a great place for Kepler to rebound. Marlins - No idea about this club, but it doesn't feel like a good fit on the surface. Nobody wants to play for them, that much I'd bet money on. The owner, Bruce Sherman, is busy talking about tech and development expenditures and downplaying free agency. Historically, the Marlins are not free agent spenders. Their biggest FA contract ever was $53MM, and they've only handed out a $10MM+ contract 4 times in team history. I think Kepler is going to have to settle for a 1 year deal to get into the $10MM+ AAV range. I think the Royals are a good candidate to sign him. The Royals need a corner OF with at least a league average bat, and they have some payroll flexibility. Kepler should rebound to a solid 2 WAR season and meet their needs.

Bobby Bonds was literally in the link I posted in the comment you quoted. Bobby Bonds. Career OPS+ 129. 14 years played. 57.8 career WAR. Borderline HoF.

Colorado (43%) also had the 8th highest ground ball rate and the worst WHIP (1.52), much higher than the Twins' 27th ranked (39%) and 7th ranked WHIP (1.23). The Rockies put a ton more people on base than the Twins did, and since the Rockies had the 26th ranked number of BB's issued (563) vs. the Twins' 3rd best (433). Tons of those extra base runners were on 1B where lots of grounders meant more double plays could be made. It's not that Brendan Rodgers is necessarily a defensive stud so to speak, but he gets a ton of opportunities. Apart from one year, his DRS has been negative, his UZR/150 is just a bit above average and his OAA is negative. FIP is a pretty old stat. It doesn't care about batted ball data, park factors or anything else, really. HR, BB, Strikeouts. Everything else is neutral. The Twins' front office invests heavily in pitching strategy and batted ball tendencies. I use fWAR a lot because it's Fangraphs' data is much easier for me to sort through than Baseball Reference's stuff. Also, I don't understand Baseball Reference's pitcher WAR calculation. I thought it was based on ERA or ERA+, but it's not.

You think it would be disappointing to have a Walker Jenkins turn into a 60 career WAR borderline HoF player??? That's the kind of career Bobby Bonds had. Duuuuuuude... He'd be in the discussion of greatest Minnesota Twins player in history if he never left the Twins. The only players to ever significantly play for the Twins who would definitely be better are Bert Blyleven and Rod Carew. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsbo01.shtml

As soon as one of them puts up a 5 WAR season while still pre-arb eligible...

No. It wasn't. Rooker did not refine his approach with coaches. If you read his interviews, he makes it clear it was him and his hitting style. Confidence was the issue. His desired approach and swing did not really change much.

I never thought much of Larnach or Kirilloff.

I did. At least on the order of a wRC+ 120-130 hitter. Not a wRC+ 165 hitter. I doubt MLB franchises turn to TD for player scouting.

What about Louie Varland? He was a starter who didn't work out. He hasn't been "great" in a very SSS of relief appearances (6.44 ERA, 3.54 FIP), and wasn't playable as a starter (5.27 ERA, 5.46 FIP). Jax is a legitimately different pitcher 4 years later now than he was in 2021. His average velocity is up 4mph. his pitch offerings have changed as well. He's throwing his 4 seamer 30% less than he used to, he ditched his curveball and added a sinker. He's not comparable to the Varland shift since the only thing which really changes for Varland is velo. Evaluating the change for Jax should be done mostly in a vacuum, IMHO.

Rooker's first 10 games with the Athletics = .333/.395/.727 OPS 1.122 wRC+ 201. He wasn't making adjustments to his swing while in Oakland that let him become good. He was just getting the luck to swing the opposite way from unlucky to overlucky, if you will. He's never talked about changing his swing. He's talked about getting his timing right and the confidence to lay off bad pitches. Rooker didn't turn into a different hitter, the Twins failed to recognize him as an MLB-worthy player or give him the opportunity. Once labeled as a MiLB depth guy (like Larnach was before this year started), the chances for Rooker to get playing time or move up the depth chart was limited. He'd been written off. Simply put, the Twins thought Larnach and Kirilloff were substantially better than Rooker so Rooker was expendible.

Of the #1 Twins prospects since 1983, almost all of them made to to MLB, but the #1 prospect's repeating has become more common since the mid 90s. Of the last 10 prospects who were ranked #1 in the Twins' system, 6 turned out productive careers or are on the path for it. Jenkins is far from a sure-fire bet IMHO. 83 - Brian Oelkers 84 - Kirby Puckett 85 - Jay Bell 86 - Billy Beane 87 - Steve Gasser 88 - Derek Parks 89 - Johnny Ard 90 - Willie Banks (#13) 91 - Rich Garces (#16) 92 - David McCarty (#22) 93 - David McCarty (#16) 94 - Rich Becker (#37) 95 - LaTroy Hawkins (#30) 96 - Todd Walker (#22) 97 - Todd Walker (#7) 98 - Luis Rivas (#55) 99 - Michael Cuddyer (#36) 00 - Michael Cuddyer (#18) 01 - Adam Johnson (#41) 02 - Justin Morneau (#21) 03 - Joe Mauer (#4)... ummm, Rocco Baldelli (#2) LOL 04 - Joe Mauer (#1) 05 - Joe Mauer (#1) 06 - Jason Kubel (#58) 07 - Matt Garza (#21) 08 - Nick Blackburn (#56) 09 - Aaron Hicks (#39) 10 - Aaron Hicks (#19) 11 - Kyle Gibson (#34) 12 - Miguel Sano (#18) 13 - Miguel Sano (#9) 14 - Byron Buxton (#1), Miguel Sano (#6) 15 - Byron Buxton (#2) 16 - Byron Buxton (#2) 17 - Nick Gordon (#60) 18 - Royce Lewis (#24) 19 - Royce Lewis (#9) 20 - Royce Lewis (#26) 21 - Alex Kirilloff (#18) 22 - Austin Martin (#47) 23 - Royce Lewis (#43) 24 - Walker Jenkins (#13)

Martin had mediocre power in the SEC. While you're talking about SLG, his AVG was about .400 so it stands to reason his SLG was going to look impressive. His ISO was about .200. 60 grade power if were were talking MLB, but fairly mediocre at the SEC. As I think everybody knows, he Blue Jays drafted Martin, and he was drafted for his hit tool, not his power tool. The hopes were that the 50 grade raw power Martin had would eventually turn into game power with a swing change to increase lift. The Twins tried to implement swing changes designed to lift the ball, but it failed miserably. What does real power in the SEC look like? Brent Rooker's ISO was over .400 in the SEC in his draft year. His SLG was .811 the year he was drafted.

Funny how a budget crisis and desperation make a team's F.O. more willing to consider these things. Back when Duran wanted back into the rotation, Baldelli publicly scoffed at the idea. The article is correct about the risks, but more than that, the risk the Twins are willing to cast off a starter for talent/salary relief and trust in Jax is the big risk. Having Jax pitch in April, not perform well, and move him back into the bullpen isn't a big deal. Having the Twins trade away Lopez or SWR for salary relief/talent because they're counting on Jax is a big deal. The Twins are not deep in the rotation. I'm not sure why people assume they are: Lopez, Ryan, Ober. Those are the 3 pitchers the Twins can count on. I don't consider any of them to be an legit ace even though it seems like a lot of the baseball world does believe that about Lopez. SWR. His poor performance, reduced velo at the end of the year was the same as his great performance improved velo at the beginning of the year. SWR gained a little on his fastball at mid year to sustain his success, but as soon as that extra bump dropped back off, MLB hitters adapted with the aid of scouting reports. Keep in mind, SWR was supposedly gassed and losing that fastball at just 125 innings (112 in MLB, 13 in AAA). SWR's offerings are pretty weak on Stuff+, his conditioning and endurance are questionable as a full time starter, and the scouting reports were effective at setting him back. David Festa. Sophomore slump is a real probability with him as the scouting reports grow. Festa has struggled with HRs at the upper minor levels, and while he pitched well enough to hold down a back end rotation arm, he also only went 125 innings combined last year. He could take a step forward or he could fall back. He is not a young prospect anymore entering his age 25 season. Last year there were 40 starting pitchers at age 25 or younger in MLB who pitched 70+ innings (which is the innings cutoff for 150 total qualified pitchers). That's about 30% of MLB starters. It includes legit front end starters people would recognize. Bibee, Crochet, Skenes, Greene, Yamamoto... etc. Chris Paddack. I don't view this guy as a legit starter at all. He's capped at 80 IP per year, and even when he does pitch, he hasn't been effective carrying a 4.82 ERA during his tenure with the Twins. Not once in his entire injury plagued career has Paddack carried an ERA/FIP combo below 3.95. He's never been a mid rotation starter in his career. Blame the hype machine if you think otherwise. Zebby Matthews. Love the story, but he needs to work on his command. He wasn't ready yet last year, and he's not going to be a mid rotation or better starter unless his stuff and/or command improves. --------------------------------- We're past legitimate depth options before mid season now. --------------------------------- Andrew Morris? 20% K vs. 8% BB in AAA last year. Both at the limits of rotation projectability. He might make it or might flame out. Marco Raya? Shoulder 2021. Shoulder 2022. Shoulder 2023. Josh Winder #2? Aside from the durability concerns, Raya's stuff has played more like Fernando Romero's projections. The K's which were supposed to be there haven't consistently shown up.

Looking back at the list, I'm not sure the rankings/scouting was of value prior to 1990, anyway. Only 2 of the 7 top prospects for the Twins actually made any significant impact. Kirby Puckett, and Jay Bell (who the Twins traded to Cleveland for Bert Blyleven's return). Even though Bell turned in a fantastic career, the trade was still a good one since Bert Blyleven brought the Twins their first World Series, and one of 2 World Series' in their franchise history (3 if you actually believe the 1924 Senators should be included). A World Series victory is worth any prospect or any player.

List goes back to 1990 when BA started ranking prospects across organizational barriers (national level). In my comment above, BA rankings back to 1983 for the Twins were added. There were no prospect rankings by BA prior to 1983, and it wouldn't surprise me if there were no major organizations who officially ranked teams' prospects in a similar manner prior to 1983.

I think people may not have read the article. These are the highest ranked prospects since 1990 in Baseball America's national rankings. It doesn't go back further because BA didn't do a national ranking prior to 1990. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/1983-2000-top-10-prospects-rankings-archive/ That's an archive link to top 10 prospects in each team's system from 1983-2000. 83 - Brian Oelkers 84 - Kirby Puckett 85 - Jay Bell 86 - Billy Beane 87 - Steve Gasser 88 - Derek Parks 89 - Johnny Ard 90 - Willie Banks (#13) 91 - Rich Garces (#16) 92 - David McCarty (#22) 93 - David McCarty (#16) 94 - Rich Becker (#37) 95 - LaTroy Hawkins (#30) 96 - Todd Walker (#22) 97 - Todd Walker (#7) 98 - Luis Rivas (#55) 99 - Michael Cuddyer (#36) 00 - Michael Cuddyer (#18) 01 - Adam Johnson (#41) 02 - Justin Morneau (#21) 03 - Joe Mauer (#4)... ummm, Rocco Baldelli (#2) LOL 04 - Joe Mauer (#1) 05 - Joe Mauer (#1) 06 - Jason Kubel (#58) 07 - Matt Garza (#21) 08 - Nick Blackburn (#56) 09 - Aaron Hicks (#39) 10 - Aaron Hicks (#19) 11 - Kyle Gibson (#34) 12 - Miguel Sano (#18) 13 - Miguel Sano (#9) 14 - Byron Buxton (#1), Miguel Sano (#6) 15 - Byron Buxton (#2) 16 - Byron Buxton (#2) 17 - Nick Gordon (#60) 18 - Royce Lewis (#24) 19 - Royce Lewis (#9) 20 - Royce Lewis (#26) 21 - Alex Kirilloff (#18) 22 - Austin Martin (#47) 23 - Royce Lewis (#43) 24 - Walker Jenkins (#13) I've added the Baseball America preseason rankings from TheBaseballCube. Have to change the year in the hyperlink to get to each season. I listed 2 in in 2014 which was the only year the Twins had 2 top 10s. Oh, and Baldelli, just for laughs. Oh, and I mostly only listed drafted by Twins players so it's possible the Twins acquired players who were ranked higher in some years? Don't care. https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/prospects_mlb/2024~BA/