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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Rooker was holding his own with good expected metrics when the Twins gave up on him. He wasn't "bad" so I'm not exactly sure how to look at that. Rooker was given a very, very short leash in April, 2021. His demotion came after 8 games, and he was recalled on 7/23/21. After the recall, Rooker was .219/.317/.425 wRC+ 106, wOBA .324, xwOBA .361 over 183 PA. That's the last Rooker ever saw action in Minnesota. Falvey bailed on Rooker in favor of Kyle Garlick. It was asinine IMHO. If the Twins front office continues to toss players who are raking by expected metrics, the Twins are going nowhere regardless.
  2. bean5302
    If he's really bad, you DFA him and he passes through waivers or you move on if somebody claims him. He wasn't good enough to make the roster for 8 years in the system at that point. I'm not too concerned.
  3. bean5302
    If the Twins pitch Prielipp every 5 starts (they haven't been doing that), and he remains healthy, he'd get 8 more starts. I don't think it's reasonable to assume he'd average more than 5.5 innings per start, so that'd place him in the 40-44 more innings range. I don't understand the max of 100 innings or where it comes from. I don't see strong indications the Twins have an active plan in place to limit Prielipp's innings. There does seem to be a reduction in pitch count recently, but Prielipp hasn't failed to go 5.0+ innings since June 7th.
  4. bean5302
    He has a mutual option. Either Ryan or the Twins can opt out. Ryan is 100% going to opt out after the Skubal decision... unless he continues to have a terrible 2nd half.
  5. bean5302
    I feel like people are confusing playing poorly while hurt with streaky. If Royce Lewis' name was Alex Kirilloff, 90% of this site would be proclaiming him the de-facto MVP for the next 12 years straight already. The last 12 games would be the baseline for Lewis' performance, and any time Lewis didn't have a game with an OPS of at least 1.000 it's because he was hurt that day.
  6. bean5302
    The Twins were willing to move Kaelen Culpepper as part of a trade for Soriano. Emmanuel Rodriguez wasn't connected to any trades probably because his value has been extinguished and he can no longer be the big piece in any significant move. Is it really a problem Emma is out of options? While this site, and some analysts, have pushed Emma as a knocking at the door kind of player for years now, the Twins have passed him over for any number of outfield options for the past couple of years. The team clearly does not believe in him, and other teams clearly don't value him highly, either. If Emma is the 4th outfielder coming out of camp 2027, is it really a big deal?
  7. bean5302
    Not sure how you forgot about the Skubal ruling? The fair market value clause for final year of arbitration had been there since the start of the current CBA, but I don't know as it had ever been used. Skubal decided to push that and the arbiter agreed. Players in their final year of arbitration should be compared to fair market value as a free agent. Skubal 2025 $10.5MM. Estimate based on the old methodology $15MM-ish (50% increase). Tigers figure $19MM. Skubal's ask $32MM. There is no way in hell the MLBPA doesn't solidify the fair market value process in the next CBA.
  8. bean5302
    100%
  9. bean5302
    Nothing to do with first vs. second half. Lewis came up and was immediately effective after his recall on 6/6. 6/6-7/12 = .266/.328/.500 OPS .828 wRC+ 129, 8.8% BB, 23.4% K 7/17-8/10 = .293/.359/.500 OPS .859 wRC+ 136, 8.7% BB, 21.7% K June = .279/.330/.512 OPS .842 wRC+ 132. 7.4% BB, 22.3% K, .311 BABIP July = .217/.313/.410 OPS .743 wRC+ 99, 12.5% BB, 20.8% K, .246 BABIP August = .405/.436/.676 OPS 1.112 wRC+ 213, 2.6% BB, 28.2% K, .542 BABIP He's been pretty consistently hitting balls well and producing.
  10. bean5302
    Joe Ryan probably has minimal trade value this offseason. I don't think he's worth moving. There has to be an assumption his final arb contract is near $20MM so his trade value is going to be pretty low.
  11. bean5302
    Why don't we just DFA and release Buxton so we can clear some space for Jenkins?
  12. bean5302
    Lackey and Tinney still adjusting to Ft. Myers pitching. Not sure those A ball pitchers know what a strike zone looks like.
  13. bean5302
    The .453 BABIP doesn't seem sustainable. The sketchy nature of batted ball data reported in AA shows a near 40% line drive rate which says the expected BABIP should be really high, but the 25% pop up rate doesn't. Plenty of orange flags, but fun to see the eye popping production.
  14. bean5302
    Good news, we seem to have a new Canterino named Charlee Soto.
  15. bean5302
    I don't consider him a prospect anymore. Not sure what there is to be intrigued about when he strikes out 45% of the time in Ft Myers.
  16. bean5302
    Your co-worker thinks.. scouting reports... Well wow, guess guys like Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez are actually bad at baseball because their scouting reports. Next time I'm at a game where they're playing, I'll just hold the scouting reports up of guys and yell "scoreboard!" So in a desperate Hail Mary! now I'm dismissing my favorite player on the Twins from the era? No, Neto's numbers (career wRC+ 107) are not similar to Kody Clemens (career wRC+ 89). Like, dude. Welcome to the ignore list. Thanks for wasting my time.
  17. bean5302
    Please stop digging. What you're posting is absolutely ludicrous at this point. How can you even write this stuff seriously?
  18. bean5302
    Well, just so long as we're not using statistics, physical skill set or experience as ways to evaluate players and we instead rely upon things like how they look to determine they're hopeless. Also, as a tip, you can generally check social media to see how his wife is looking that day to determine Royce's confidence level and how he'll play that day.
  19. bean5302
    and you base that on he made an error that one time or something? Not that I'm a fan of Lewis at 2B in particular.
  20. bean5302
    The Twins' moves make an impact on the bullpen's likelihood of sustaining it's performance. They'd certainly outperformed themselves thus far. Minnesota is ranked 17th in WPA, but much lower in actual and expected metrics. The chances the pre-deadline bullpen would be able to keep preserving games at such a high rate was long. Feels really similar to 2010 when the Twins acquired Matt Capps. Jon Rauch had been getting it done, but making things awfully interesting in the process.
  21. bean5302
    Matt Wallner, next SS for the Minnesota Twins because... positional versatility!!!! Talk to me about positional versatility when fielders are actually good at the positions we play them.
  22. bean5302
    Here is Zach Neto for the experts who've never watched him play, but know he's a bad fielder. Depending on your metric, either Neto is an exceptional shortstop, a below average shortstop or a bad shortstop. Brooks Lee adjusted for Neto's innings based on seasons 1-3 DRS = -3, -18, -22 OAA = -7, -2, -16 FRV = -7, -2, -13 I haven't watched Neto which is why I defer to the the metrics. Metrics I've actually took time to learn about unlike most people who absolutely steadfastly support a particular metric they don't understand. OAA/FRV didn't exist in Gagne's era. Neither did DRS, but DRS is a lot closer to the TZ factor used to evaluate Gagne.
  23. bean5302
    The WNBA makes more headlines than they have fans.
  24. bean5302
    Emmanuel Rodriguez was activated 7/28. The fact he's still on a rehab assignment in the low minors weeks later is worth questioning. Seeing such an extended time in the low minors for a guy who's been in AAA for 3 years feels pretty extraordinary. There's nothing for Emma to do down there or learn. I guess maybe they'll put him on the Saints today since Emma is already in Iowa?
  25. bean5302
    MLB continuing to work hard to alienate the fan base. Apple TV, Amazon, Netflix, Twins TV, MLB.TV, Youtube. All you need is like 7 different subscriptions to watch baseball.
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