bean5302

I posted some helpful info here, but it looks like it got deleted. Oh well.

Nice.

Healthcare in the US has a few underlying issues. Obama did his best to demonize the insurance industry, and it's easy to point fingers at them because they're the most visible frustration in the process. Health insurance isn't profitable. Most major carriers have bailed out of health insurance in the past 20 years to focus on financial products (life insurance, retirement services, long term care insurance, etc). Health insurance profit rates have typically been in that 5-8% range. Life insurance 10-12%, Retirement services 12-14%. It's led to a lack of competition and innovation in the industry, and the ability to create terrible policies. The Affordable Health Care Act gutted health insurance plans for larger companies as well as it gutted ERISA. The lack of simple policies still prevents a lot of people in the US from carrying/qualifying for health insurance. The AHCA didn't truly address any of the problems, but it did create new ones while partially mitigating some of the underlying problems. Doctors and nurses in the US make 50-200% more than their counterparts in leading European countries. The compensation rate for medical staff in the US is astronomical, and that cost gets passed on to consumers, regardless of whether or not the payor is an insurance company or an individual. Malpractice insurance. Colossal rewards for every "mistake" a jury decides was actually made has led to surgical coverage approaching $250,000 of premium annually for a single provider. Americans are pretty lousy at understanding the money doesn't just fall out of the sky when they award damages. There is no workers comp fee schedule table for malpractice, and it leads to tons of frivolous lawsuits and outrageous rewards. Medical equipment. The US has the best. Period. No questions or debate about it. The technology used in the United States is simply better, more cutting edge and more capable than anywhere else on Earth. It's also more expensive. A private (out of pocket) scan will typically be 5-10x more expensive here than for our peer nations. That cost gets passed on to consumers. Pharmacy. Yeah, this one is downright crooked. The FDA is ploddingly slow, and thus brutally expensive to obtain approvals, and the licensing and the market is rigged to favor big pharma. A huge underlying issue of the cost of medical care in the United States is... education. Want to be a doctor? 4 years at a for profit college for the BS. 4 years of medical school at a for profit college for the Doctor of Medicine. 2 years of internship (residency) where you get paid slave labor working 80hrs a week while also preparing for the state medical exam/license. Then onto the fellowship path which can take years longer. Ludicrous. It leads to doctors graduating with $250-500k of student loan debt. That has to be paid back somehow... which leads to compensation rates being so high, and procedures costing way more as institutions promise to repay student loans as golden handcuffs which lock a doctor into a residency with the threat of immediate financial ruin if they leave.

I wouldn't. Obliques are often 8-12+ week injuries as they're very slow to heal for a variety of reasons. Not putting Castro on the IL immediately when he hurt it was not a logical decision. Even in a best case scenario, you'd expect Castro to be out a couple weeks, and you certainly don't want him returning early because if he aggravates it, it could be after the All Star Break / Trade Deadline before he's ready to return. Just my opinion, though.

Love the news Royce Lewis could be back as early as the end of next week. Way faster than I dared to hope. I was expecting Mid May at the earliest given how serious his injuries have been. His IL trips are at least getting shorter. Maybe in a couple years he'll just have to sit out a couple games with soreness? hehe

Pfffffttt... Do I seriously need to start writing "FIRST!!!!!!!!" in the comment threads? oh wait! Maybe you all have me on "ignore"? Never mind. Carry on!

2019 Rotation Berrios 4.4 fWAR, 3.68 ERA > Lopez Odorizzi 4.3 fWAR, 3.51 ERA > Ryan Pineda 2.6 fWAR, 4.01 ERA = Ober Gibson 2.5 fWAR, 4.89 ERA = Paddack Perez 1.8 fWAR, 4.99 ERA < SWR The top of the rotation in 2019 was better than what we have today. 2019 Bullpen Rogers 2.1 fWAR, 2.61 ERA Duffey 1.2 fWAR, 2.50 ERA May 0.9 fWAR, 2.94 ERA Beyond the big 3, Romo, Littell, and Stashak were all excellent. Our bullpen was better in 2019 as well. As for the prospect list, I expect Festa and Matthews to be #4-5 starters and for none of the other prospects at AAA to be more than bullpen or spot start arms. In AA, Connor Prielipp is one of 2 upper rotation potential arms we've got in the entire system, and I don't give him more than a 25% chance of staying healthy enough to start. Charlee Soto in A+ is the other, but he's way too far away to bank on him. 20/20 Hindsight shows us the Twins top pitching prospects didn't turn out, but they had just graduated Jose Berrios who is without a doubt the best starting pitcher the Twins have developed (not under Falvey) since Santana/Liriano (or Radke, depending on how you feel about when the guys enter our system). Graterol, Duran, Thorpe, Enlow, Gonsalves weren't as good as our current group, but I feel strongly the TD hype machine has been working overtime on our sure-fire pitching prospects lately. Just like they did with guys like Jordan Balazovic.

Castro is on the IL. Retroactive to the 21st.

Man, SWR looks like a complete tool here, lol.

Wildcard Series, Division Series, Championship Series and World Series appearances all suggest it's competitive, but yes, if you focus on the last handful of World Series winners only, and you decide arbitrarily what small-medium-large market actually is, you can form the anti-competitive opinion easily.

Not to mention the junk framing stat isn't floating Vazquez's immeasurable, unquantifiable, mystical value yet this year. Patrick Winkel (AAA) has played in 1 game so far this year (4/18). He hasn't been on the IL so I have no idea what's going on there. Gasper and Morales haven't seen a single game behind the plate so I think it's clear how the Twins view these guys. Ricardo Olivar (AA) is the only seemingly legit catching prospect close to the majors in the Twins' system right now, but he's got zero power in AA so far. Wonder if we could pry Luis Campusano away from the Padres? I get that he's considered a poor framer, but I feel like it's a heck of a lot easier to improve catcher defense than it is to improve the stick. Campusano is catching 38% of base runners so far this year with only 1 PB so there is some ability to play. Seems like the Padres are really down on the guy.

You made it clear you believe our current pitching rotation is much better than the one from 2020, and you were seeking consensus. I do not agree and I see no reason you'd be so bold about your position as to ask me if I was joking. What would I choose? 2020 Maeda > 2025 Lopez 2020 Berrios > 2025 Ryan 2020 Pineda < 2025 Ober 2020 Hill = 2025 Paddack 2020 Dobnak > 2025 SWR I'd give the advantage to our 2020 rotation, but I wouldn't fight over the position the rotations were similar, and depending on how bullish fans are about our depth and how much it will be needed, I could even accept somebody thinking the 2025 rotation is a little better. To declare we are so much better in 2025 that anybody who disagrees with you must be joking is a heck of a statement. Berrios and Duran are not in the Twins' rotation.

Down 2mph, struggling with control. That's worrisome about Matthews. Down 4mph for Tonkin is worse. The high max exit velocities for Rodriguez are great, and they back up the power numbers he's produced in the past so hopefully we'll start to see the production. Statcast has his EV at 89.3mph average in AAA with lots of pop ups so far on the season. Pretty common to see a drop of 1-2mph on average EVs from AAA to MLB, and that'd put Emma's results below average at best right now. It'd be interesting to hear what McCusker has to say about the coaching and analytics at the MLB level vs. the Indy league stuff since he's clearly making major adjustments to his game.

In case folks are wondering about the location, it's situated in the corner of Stevens Square, Lowry Hill East, and technically in the Whittier neighborhood. It's a safe area, but will probably be very tough to find parking. Expect to be walking a couple blocks. The only surface lot is reserved for a grocery store.

Full year service time = 172 days. Time remaining for Twins = 161 days. Festa = 95 days (and counting), Needs to be optioned until end of July to gain a year. Matthews = 48 days, Call up June 1 with impunity. Festa or Matthews are probably both questionable candidates for service time manipulation right now. I don't think the Twins are willing to move on from SWR or Paddack before the end of May, and I don't think the Twins are willing to go to the end of July carrying dead weight (if Paddack/SWR struggle) in the rotation when Lopez comes back.

I was 100% on board giving Cartaya a good look, but that look shows he's woefully ill prepared for AAA right now. I'm not sure if it's a talent thing or a head thing. I'd send Cartaya down to AA and replace Cossetti's playing time. Gasper, Camargo, or Funderburk. I'd be fine DFA'ing any of them right now.

Competitive Balance. The Twins build teams to maybe make the playoffs, not to compete in them. It's a Derek Falvey issue, not a league-wide issue when it comes to building a roster to potentially win a World Series. The Dodgers truly are running away with things right now, but Houston was similar just a couple years ago. There are plenty of smaller/mid market teams who've been to the World Series in the past decade. Royals, Rays, Guardians, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, etc. The turnover in the post-season, even before the expansion of playoffs was better in MLB than any other of the big 4 leagues. I tend to agree a salary cap and salary floor would be good for competition, but the MLBPA will die on that hill, and owners have more to lose than the elite MLB players (who the MLBPA represents first) so I just do not see the cap happening. I really do think the conversation is about the Twins in specific. Some other teams are likely having similar issues, but it's not an MLB-wide emergency. The Pohlads have massively miscalculated.

For the record, Byron Buxton made a 50% catch last night. 3 stars. Catch Probability 50% Opportunity Time 4.4sec Distance 76ft

Are you voicing your displeasure people are criticizing Brooks Lee's performance based on 8 games? Personally, I think Lee is doing just fine at the plate, the balls just aren't finding openings. That's coming from somebody who isn't exactly bullish on the guy. Average exit velocity is very good, his xwOBA looks great, he's taking walks which he didn't do last year. Everything looks like his results should be there. Even site writers were calling Julien not MLB worthy despite him more than holding his own this year by expected results in a similar amount of PAs. Fans are enraged and, honestly, unstable around here. There's some luck going on for the Twins right now, and there are some guys who I think are trying to be heroes rather than just doing their job at the plate.

Matt Canterino was granted his release by the team. He'll be able to explore options with other teams, but the Twins could choose to offer him a 2 year MiLB contract or something like that. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/04/twins-release-matt-canterino.html

Can we put the stipulation that Rodriguez start hitting before he gets the call as well? He can't even tread water in AAA. .238/.360/.286 OPS .646 wRC+ 84, 16.0% BB, 34.7% K doesn't exactly project well at the MLB level. 0 HR, 3 doubles in 75 PA in a hitter friendly league.

I didn't say that. Not really interested in fighting.

It should be simpler for the Saints. There should be 10x fewer people there. I believe the Twins changed the seating names back in like 2018 to squeeze more dollars out of previously lower class seats. There are generally some people in the bars/restaurants, but they don't hold a ton of folks. If it's a nasty, cold, rainy day, they get a bit more packed. Honestly, last game I went to was more depressingly dead than it has ever been.

Do hitters suck at hitting Festa's 35/40 grade changeup as a result of the fastball?

Pretty sure I could increase attendance without a lot of effort. The problem is balancing ticket sales campaigns with being fair to the few season ticket holders left. I've detailed the campaign more than a couple times around here. 1. Discounted ticket packages for North Loop apartments/condo residents. The larger percentage of the building signs up, the greater the discount. 2. Clear entire sections and give away tickets to entire high school classes. Every single game. The average upper deck section seats about 350-400. Heck, two high schools. Pit them against each other in cheer contests or dance contests or whatever. Have a dedicated Twins player as their representative to cheer them on. Whatever. Get the younger generation to know players. 3. Celebrity mascots. Get celebrities to don a costume and accompany TC Bear. Have the celebrity revealed at the end of the 7th inning or something. 4. For the love of all that is good, make the giveaways more than a fanny pack or company branded tee shirt from Truly seltzer. Giveaways should be awesome. A free jersey you pick out in the store with customization etc. 5. Gamify attendance at Target Field with things like check-ins and discounts. Get people to check-in using a bar code scan at different locations at Target Field. Hrbeks, etc, to get them more familiar with the stadium. Better giveaways to people who play TWINGO, etc. It's so cheap to do these things overall, but so effective at advertising and engagement. 6. Push notification giveaways during the game. "You've won a cap!" whatever. Every owner in baseball should understand it's about the event. It's about the experience of attending a game. The more prestige there is around attendance, the more people want to go and the more tickets you'll sell.