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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Yeah, it's frustrating. Those "balls" should have been called strikes, but if the umpire is enforcing a tight strike zone, the pitcher is at a huge disadvantage.
  2. bean5302
    No idea, but they'll just slap him back on the IL if he's not ready by then, right?
  3. bean5302
    @jorgenswest Tons if you're actually trying to quantify if a player has increased their high effort average swing speed. There are some errors in the data set which can mess things up, but in Kody Clemens' case, his max effort swing speeds remain about the same, he's just not taking soft swings as frequently. It's best to look at the bat tracking charts on Baseballsavant to compare previous seasons to current in this case. The chart does show a much smaller, but significant boost to his upper range swing speeds. Since Baseballsavant isn't loading properly right now, you might not be able to see it. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kody-clemens-665019?stats=statcast-r-bat_tracking-mlb
  4. bean5302
    Over the past 16 starts Festa (career) vs. Sim Festa: 16 GS, 77.1 IP, 4.31 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 10.71 K/9 (27.6%), 3.26 BB/9 (8.4%), 1.32 WHIP. QS = 6.25% (6.0+ IP, 3 ER or less) QS2 = 37.5% (5.0+ IP, 3.99 ERA or less) Sim: 16 GS, 76.0 IP, 4.97 ERA, 5.21 FIP, 4.92 xFIP, 8.05 K/9 (20.4%), 3.67 BB/9 (9.3%), 1.50 WHIP. QS = 6.25% QS2 = 31.25% Festa is better in every single metric, many dramatically better, except old school QS, where they're tied. Even if he wasn't, it'd be worth taking another look at him because SWR's line is not MLB worthy.
  5. bean5302
    I don't think I need to really heap on by detailing out Miguel Sano's long list of poor decisions and potential character issues. If you don't think he was a divisive figure in the clubhouse or that he was trying his best, I think you're abjectly mistaken. Suffice to say, his decision making and immaturity were major contributors to him falling far short of his potential and disappointing Twins fans. Miguel Sano made $36MM as a Twins player. It's not exactly chump change. He did provide some highlight reel home runs, and with 7 years in MLB, you'd expect it. I hope he's been humbled and is now making better decisions, and I hope he has a great life moving forward.
  6. bean5302
    Sim can't get through the 5th inning and he's been a #6 caliber starter for about a year now. I think he just permanently lost his rotation spot to Festa.
  7. bean5302
    Prielipp was at 49 pitches. Since the Twins are limiting him to about 50-60 pitches a game, he wasn't going to head back out. Whew, Prielipp got a little hosed based on gameday. Here are the batters he faced in inning 1. 6 missed strike calls. 2 very borderline balls called.
  8. bean5302
    SWR's last 100 IP in MLB (99.2). 21 GS, 99.2 IP, 4.97 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 4.67 xFIP, 8.31 K/9 (21.0%), 3.70 BB/9 (9.3%) 3 Quality Starts 7 Starts 5.0 IP, Under 4.00 ERA (competitive games) Stuff+ 90 (poor) Location+ 103 (very good) Pitching+ 94 (below average) He rarely has a "competitive" game, and has an ERA of basically 5.00. If the Twins believe SWR can improve a step, he can spend the next few months in AAA. If not, they should see if they can get a desperate team to buy high on him.
  9. bean5302
    The real question is what happens when Rocco's custom magic 8 ball assigns multiple players to the same position now that the extreme shift is banned. Does Rocco just shake it again or does the player get to choose?
  10. bean5302
    Clemens' top swings didn't change much in bat speed. He really just cut out the slow swings for the most part. Also, his production in 2024 was not "lousy, even for a bench player," but the expected metrics do say he should have been lousy. He went .219/.258/.447 OPS .706 wRC+ 92 at the plate in 2024 with a 24.2% K rate. Twins players who were worse at the plate. Vazquez, Lee, Margot, Julien, Kirilloff, Farmer. Twins players who were essentially on par: Kepler, Martin. Clemens has solid exit velocity, and probably a tick above average raw power, and he's been able to handle 2B defensively so there are some tools in the shed. His unwillingness to take free passes cripples his production. The biggest change in a SSSS this year is he's laying off pitches out of the zone better rather than committing to a desperate, awkward, slow swing at a ball he can't even touch which results in a bump in bat speed. Can he sustain it? I mean... he's 29 so probably not, but there's a chance.
  11. bean5302
    OAA career: 1B +4, 2B +4, 3B -2 UZR/150 career: 1B +1.7, 2B -2.8, -3.2 Fielding Pct: 1B .998, 2B 1.000, 3B .925 If you're going to randomly make stuff up to trash talk a player, you're going to get called out a bit.
  12. bean5302
    Buxton could make the All Star game via vote if he stays healthy this year. Top 6 outfielders in each league get the nod, Buxton is #8 in fWAR right now, #4 in the AL. Here are the standings atm for the AL outfielders. Obviously major changes can still happen due to injury or performance since voting won't even close for round 1 for another month. 1. Judge NYY 3.9 WAR, 100% lock. 2. Abreu BOS 1.7 WAR 3. Kwan CLE 1.7 WAR 4. Buxton MIN 1.6 WAR 5. McKinstry DET 1.3 WAR 6. Rodriguez SEA 1.3 WAR 7. Meyers HOU, 1.2 WAR 8. Arozarena SEA, 1.1 WAR 9. Langford TEX, 1.1 WAR 10. Springer TOR, 1.1
  13. bean5302
    I guess I'd just rather have Raya out of the bullpen. He sure doesn't look like a starter at this point. Several of our pitchers have options.
  14. bean5302
    He's on the IL.
  15. bean5302
    Coulombe throwing 90 does probably cause a minor wrinkle on swing timing. Not sure if it's more than offset by the decision time a batter has. When pitchers were consistently throwing 90mph fastballs, hitters had time to choose to try and pull or slap a ball oppo. His movement is the big problem. The curve and splitter move the same way, they're both breaking pitches, but the separation is 8mph and 30" of break... It's nasty.
  16. bean5302
    McCusker was league average last year. He was basically Yunior Severino, but I don't recall you chomping at the bit to get Severino up on the roster in previous seasons during his hot streaks? Not saying McCusker won't rake right out of the gate, but I am saying it's worth it to give him a chance to get some still small, but at least respectable sample sizes before projecting him as a force in the lineup.
  17. bean5302
    He was, but the Twins shut down his rehab because of biceps tendinitis just a few days ago. He got an injection and apparently, he must be doing a lot better. I think the expectation is he was going to have to go back on the IL, but the Twins need help resting the bullpen.
  18. bean5302
    Unusual to the see the bats carrying the team this season, but here we are! 10 in a row is great for the team morale, and the bullpen was critical in a double header today with 2 bad starts from the rotation. Clemens is really making the most of his opportunity. I've seen all I need to see of DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. He's just like he looked at the plate last year, clearly outmatched by MLB caliber pitchers. .086/.086/.086 OPS .174 wRC+ -63 with a 34% K rate in 35 PA after today. SSSS, but even his xwOBA is a miserable .174 between his heaping helping of rollover grounders and pop ups. It's abundantly clear he's not an MLB player. Speaking of guys who don't need to be getting regular playing time, Simeon Woods-Richardson should be replaced in the rotation now. He still doesn't have a single quality start this year in 7 tries, only 3 times making it through inning 5 and in only 2 of those starts did he manage an ERA under 6.35. With poor/short starts from both Ober and SWR, the bullpen used all 9 bullpen arms in Alcala, Sands, Funderburk, Topa, Varland, Coulombe, Jax, Duran, and Stewart. We really need a long start from Paddack tomorrow at noon in Baltimore. Tonkin is back rehabbing, but he won't be ready. I wonder if the Twins would call up Marco Raya to pitch out of the 'pen? If they were in Minnesota, it wouldn't surprise me a bit.
  19. bean5302
    The Braves might be a fit. They've got nothing at SS ready and they can clear $10MM in contracts to make room for Correa with an $8MM club option on Fletcher (career over), and $2MM on Orlando Arcia for next year and beyond. So Atlanta might do the deal right now, not just at the deadline, but I think they'd prefer staying under the luxury tax by like $3-4MM in anticipation of deadline moves so say the Braves can eat about $15MM in additional payroll this year. Correa's making $37MM x .75 = roughly $28MM left this year. Proposal Carlos Correa + Cash for Orlando Arcia 2025 = Twins eat $13MM, Atlanta pays $15MM 2026 = Twins eat $15MM, Atlanta pays $16.8MM 2027 = Twins eat $15MM, Atlanta pays $15.8MM 2028 = Twins eat $15MM, Atlanta pays $15.3MM The starting shortstop for the Twins is now Orlando Arcia. If this doesn't signal the Twins are packing it in for the year, I can't imagine what would. If the Twins wait until the deadline, Correa's value might jump, but the Twins might be in the playoff hunt or Atlanta might already have solved their issue. It's a lot of the "if" game. Just have to see, but I don't see how trading Correa doesn't signal rebuild.
  20. bean5302
    I was hoping those back to back home run games for Rodriguez would be the start of a hot run at the plate, but it seems probably not. Emma still struggling, even with the 2 good games recently, he's not getting hits. Last 10 games .192/.400/.423 OPS .823, wRC+ 129, 25.7% BB, 37.1% K. The 25% walk rate will not hold in MLB, it'll drop to 15% and his K rate will jump to 50%. Having a walk rate that high just says pitchers expect Rodriguez will either chase and whiff on junk or stare at balls with the lumber sitting on his shoulder looking for mistakes like Julien. Neither methodology will work at MLB, and honestly, neither is even working in AAA. He needs to show results sooner than later to remain a top prospect. I like what MiLB rule 5 acquisition Trent Baker is doing in Wichita this year. The 26 year old should be in AAA already now that he's got his walks under control. Probably a bullpen piece with a violent delivery and 3 pitches fastball/change/slider, the latter of which was apparently pretty weak back when he was drafted in 2021. If the Twins can get something out of him, it'd be good to see. Jay Thomason's been mentioned in comments in previous days/weeks as well. He continues to rake in Ft. Myers and it doesn't seem like there's much more reason for him to be there. He's old for the level, he's taking walks and hitting for power. The K rate is too high, but he needs to face better competition to see whether or not it's just a SSS issue. That said, Cedar Rapids is full of guys hitting well this year blocking Thomason from moving up, and in AA, there's not a ton of room, either. I think it's time to part ways with a couple of the aging lower performers in St. Paul to allow for guys who need to move up to get some playing time at a higher level. We can't continue to log jam guys in the minors until they're entering their late 20s.
  21. bean5302
    I'd still like to see closer to 200 PA this year. Same guy, age 26 in AAA last year in a similar sample size to what he's got right now went .286/.337/.484 wRC+ 107. McCusker's career AAA BABIP is sitting at about .425 right now. That's not going to happen at MLB with the top 10% of qualified hitters at about .340 BABIP and the leader was .370 last year. Love what he's doing, especially with the K rate continuing to drop, but I'd like him to have the adjustments made and be ready for MLB before calling him up. It's tempting to just promote the guy making the highlight reel seemingly every day, but patience will pay dividends.
  22. bean5302
    It's a frequent proposal that a poorly performing and expensive player should just be traded. The problem is nobody probably wants a poorly performing, expensive player on a long term contract. So Minnesota would need to eat a LOT of cash, oh, and get Correa to sign away his full no trade clause. His value was -59.2 as of May 2nd. That means, in order to trade Correa, for nothing in return, Baseballtradevalues predicts Minnesota would have to eat about$60MM. Trade Deadline 2025 2025 - $12MM remaining, Minnesota eats $10MM, new team $2MM 2026 - $33MM, Minnesota eats $17MM, new team $16MM 2027 - $32MM, Minnesota eats $16MM , new team $16MM 2028 - $32MM, Minnesota eats $16MM, new team $16MM Now that this nearly impossible scenario is approved, does that help the Twins? We have literally zero MLB caliber shortstops in our entire organization other than Correa right now. So we'll have to put a poor fielder at SS, and that doesn't help the Twins win games. The $16MM in savings is substantial, but it doesn't make a huge impact, either. Finally, who is this mystical trade partner who #1 needs a shortstop, #2 is a playoff caliber team, #3 has the payroll capacity long term?
  23. bean5302
    The key to Ober staying successful is definitely leveraging everything he can from the mental side of things adding to his precise control. Control has always been a weapon in pitching because throwing strikes hitters can't punish can go a long way towards getting outs, and virtually every hitter in MLB has weak points in the zone. Ober's pitching more like a later career Zack Greinke out there, but how far can the velo drop before hitters simply get too decision time? That's the question. Greinke hit that wall as his velo dropped under 90mph. Ober's now at 90.8mph. Hopefully, Ober can weave his way through Baltimore's potentially dangerous lineup in Maryland. A lineup where 4 guys have an expected OBA over 40 pts higher than they've put up so far. That lineup is due for some serious regression upwards.
  24. bean5302
    I don't think counting on below average veteran hitters to lead the club based on SSSS trends is a good strategy. 2,644 PA .244/.309/.395 OPS .704 wRC+ 93 (career xwOBA .293 vs. this year .315) 1,259 PA .237/.323/.402 OPS .725 wRC+ 105 (career xwOBA .326 vs. this year .331) Bader's xwOBA has been 10pts higher than his actual throughout his career, with Larnach trailing his by about 15pts. That puts Bader in line for an actual production of about wOBA .305 (about wRC+ 95) and Larnach at about .315 (about wRC+ 100). Not that there's any reason you can't count on players without the track record. Everybody gets to have their favorites or play the hot hand for a series or two. Honestly, the Twins are nearly full strength already. Wallner is probably end of May at the earliest and Keaschall will be after the All Star break, if he's back on the club. By the way, one is Keaschall, the other is Lee in their first 26 PA 26 PA .458/.462/.625, OPS 1.087, 3.8% BB, 7.7% K, wRC+ 207 26 PA .368/.538/.526, OPS 1.065, 19.2% BB, 7.7% K, wRC+ 213 Here's Lee's line for the rest of his rookie season .182/.233/.270 OPS .503 wRC+ 38 Keaschall may turn into a real stud, but I'd be surprised to see him better than league average at the plate this year if he sticks in MLB. More long term, the production is going to have to come from guys who are expected to be good hitters, and Correa really needs to be producing .
  25. bean5302
    Sure. Lee and Keaschall will never have a season where they produce more than 0.0 WAR. Ever. In fact, they'll both be out of MLB baseball forever next year as neither Brooks Lee nor Luke Keaschall gets on base a single time for the rest of the entire careers. They'll post a .000/.000/.000 with 0 walks and 100% strikeout rate forever. Even after they retreat into shame in beer league softball. Neither will ever hit another baseball, ever. Even playing whiffle ball with their kids, Lee and Keachsall will be unable to ever make contact with a ball of any sort using any kind of bat ever again for the rest of their lives. There, I've just debated you. While Zebby Matthews will undoubtedly put up 10 WAR per season and win every single Cy Young for the next 30 years accumulating 300 career WAR as he plays until age 55 in your mind, other people might disagree. Fangraphs has Jeffers at 2.3 in 2023 and I gave credit to Falvey for every single 0.1 WAR produced by his drafted players. Even Randy Dobnak as Falvey signed Dobber. Did you see where almost everybody on that list I posted pretty much had more single season WAR than Lewis or Larnach's entire career? 2.0 WAR per season is the bare minimum for a regular position player, and 2.5 WAR is the baseline for actually holding your own on a playoff team; less than that and somebody else on the roster has to make up for you in order to make the playoffs. Lewis (my favorite player) has never put together a single good season for a starter. Larnach is a AAAA guy historically. Sub 1.0 WAR seasons are not exciting accomplishments as you can go out and grab those guys for league minimum every year. I listed ALL STARS, dude. ALL STARS. You're listing mediocre season players as if they're bonafide stars. I love Royce Lewis, but he hasn't done anything.
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