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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    As if Detroit wasn't dangerous enough in the AL Central as it is, Spencer Torkelson has found his swing. He's destroying opposing pitchers with elite exit velocity, hard hit and barrel rates along with dramatic improvements in plate discipline and contact. This was not something expected to develop, and it's bad news for the Twins. On top of that, Javvy Baez is hitting, though at least all the metrics suggest there's no good reason for his high productivity. That said, if the productivity sparks positive changes for him mentally, he could start building on the success (like Royce Lewis did his rookie year). If those bats keep producing, it's not hard to imagine the Tigers winning 100 games this year...
  2. bean5302
    Going to San Diego? 100% do one of the eat/walk tours.
  3. bean5302
    Ober's absolutely elite in terms of locating his pitches this year. Combined with a huge extension to help his limited fastball play up and a bunch of pitches to keep batters guessing, it's just enough. Contact rates, hard hit rates and exit velocities are right at the edge of sustainable. I'd be pushing to trade him to a contender at the deadline because he doesn't look like a guy who is going to age well at all.
  4. bean5302
    Louis Varland's stuff: 120-125+ would be 60 grade. Varland's definitely far short of plus-plus stuff. You can see the Location+ score is very high (very few pitchers are in that 105+ area). While the author postulates Varland has a meatball problem, Louis has to live in the zone because hitters won't chase his offerings outside of the zone because his pitches don't move well. If Varland could hit his spots perfectly, he might be more effective, but pitchers with elite command who never miss their spots don't exist. If Varland misses, his pitch winds up middle middle and gets clobbered or outside the zone for a ball because hitters rarely swing at his stuff out of the zone. This means Varland's primary weapon is the speed delta between his pitches. He lives and dies based on whether or not the hitter guesses the correct pitch since the fastball, sinker and changeup all move very similarly. In my opinion, Varland is getting pretty much the absolute best out of the stuff he's got.
  5. bean5302
    Walked off again.
  6. bean5302
    Trying to pick off Ramirez??? Like, why? Why risk the Twins pitchers throwing it into the dugout for the 874th time this year?
  7. bean5302
    LOL, the irony.
  8. bean5302
    Must be frustrating to the writers trying to push the diminished velo Duran story. Duran was over 100.0mph on 10 of 11 of his 4 seamers.
  9. bean5302
    Re: Will Holland. He's supposedly great defensively at SS which probably makes him the best shortstop the Twins franchise has, but I think he's going to have a long stint between missing almost all of the past 2 months including virtually all Spring Training. If Holland had looked good in ST, he absolutely would have gotten his number called already. Huge bummer for him on the timing of that hamstring injury.
  10. bean5302
    There are 7 Twins position players combining for $80MM in salary. Those players went a combined 2 for 12 .167/.167/.167 OPS .333 0% BB, 58% K The players making bank who didn't play? Vazquez $10MM (Bench) Bader $8MM (Bench) Castro $6MM (IL)
  11. bean5302
    Buxton pushing on the basepaths is really outstanding to see. It says that he's healthy, and he's now confident rather than playing apprehensively this year. If Buxton can continue to produce on the base paths, it can help the now 31 year old veteran prop up offensive production to offset physical decline through the end of his contract. Unlike seemingly 95% of baseball players who start packing on the poundage after they get that guaranteed contract, Buxton has clearly remained committed to outstanding physical conditioning, and he's maintained elite speed as a result. Brian Dozier very nearly made the list too with 167 HR and 98 SB in a Twins uniform. Seems like the Twins get just one of these players per decade or so.
  12. bean5302
    McCusker's results are starting to push the issue of a potential promotion, but he really does need to take more walks to demonstrate the plate discipline necessary to succeed at the MLB level. I'd like to see him stay in AAA for May before making a decision. Get close to 200 PA, where the sample size and regression starts getting closer to accurate. When it comes to Royce Lewis, I feel like he might stay in AAA a bit longer than I initially expected. He's really not hitting well so I think keeping him in St. Paul for another week to get a chance to tune up his timing might be needed.
  13. bean5302
    Who cursed Andrew Morris? WHIP, regression, pitches without elite movement, etc. 4.57 ERA vs. 3.33 FIP vs. 4.11 xFIP Game Logs. ERA vs. FIP vs. TD Hype Machine 0.00 vs. 2.47 vs. OMG, guaranteed Cy Young 2026! 0.00 vs. 3.47 vs. OMG, OMG, guaranteed Cy Young 2025!! 17.18 vs. 4.56 vs. Cut him some slack, it's all the defense's fault! Still #1 pitching prospect in MLB. 0.00 vs. 4.72 vs. See! He's back to elite ace! Guaranteed Cy Young 2026, trade Pablo Lopez! Morris 1337!!!! 9.00 vs. 1.72 vs. Who cursed Andrew Morris??????? Morris doesn't miss a ton of bats. Morris walks an average number of guys. Morris isn't an elite ground ball pitcher. Those factors combined hold Morris' stock back a bit. He's still a potential back end rotation arm, and that's great, but setting the sky high expectations is asking for an Icarus ending IMHO.
  14. bean5302
    Relative accuracy +0.7%, meaning the umpire was better than average. Only 3 pitches in the entire game were miscalled within human error limits. I generally give a pass to balls which were literally on the line.
  15. bean5302
    He's old, drafted out of college after his Junior season in 2021, and he fell to the 5th round after he got destroyed down the stretch for Mississippi State. His last 5 starts in the SEC amounted to only 16.2 innings allowing 25 earned runs. Now it's 4 years later, he's age 25 and in AA so he won't present a large radar cross section. Most good prospect college pitchers generally reach MLB in 2-3 years. MacLeod was delayed by a torn UCL and surgery that followed in 2022, but he doesn't have much draft or scouting pedigree, and his success has been limited. MacLeod's FIPs have been unimpressive in the minors. 2023 - a23 (A+) 4.45 2024 - a24 (A+) 4.33 2024 - a24 (AA) 4.11 2025 a25 (AA) 2.35 in 10.0 innings He came into this season with no real prospect status as he wasn't even on the top 30 for MLB. Fangraphs had him at #31 in the org. It's nice to see him getting some great results out of the gate, but it's a SSSS and the Twins chose to keep him in AA rather than AAA. It shows how he ranks organizationally.
  16. bean5302
    Luke Keaschall Looks totally legit at the MLB level from a production and tools standpoint.Walker Jenkins Injury prone, excellent hit tool, average power w/o room to fill out, corner OFConnor Prielipp Elite stuff, injury risk, control/command issues. Bullpen risk, but #1 starter potential.Charlee Soto Looks dominant in A+ already, multiple potential plus pitches, seems durable.Dasan Hill 4 pitch lefty, dominant out of the gate A-ball a19. Sky's the limit. Building a floor.Kyle DeBarge Hit/Power tools look good at A+, defensive results at SS dramatically improved.Kaelen Culpepper Hit tool great at the plate, limited power. Better at SS than expected. Could advance fast.Emmanuel Rodriguez Power tool not playing against polished pitchers. Injury prone. High risk.Marco Raya Good stuff, weak command, likely bullpen arm due to durability concerns.Andrew Morris High velo, but can't miss bats. Back end rotation ceiling, probable BP.Carson McCusker Huge power, but questionable contact/hit tool. Defensive liability in corner OF.Brandon Winokur All the athleticism, but bat may not play.Payton Eeles Great story and good hit tool. Below average power. Questions defensively. Bottom line, he was clearly overlooked due to size. Scouting reports continue to be questionably biased.Cory Lewis Middle relief ceiling.Gabriel Gonzalez Bat keeps improving, but limited overall ceiling/athleticism. Feels a bit like later career Eddie Rosario.Ricardo Olivar Twins desperate for catching, hampering progress with OF. No power, all hit tool in AA Rayne Doncon Good, not great tools across the board.CJ Culpepper No plus pitches so far, but looks like potentially a back end rotation piece.Eduardo Beltre Huge ceiling, but DSL numbers are sketchy to project.Daiber De Los Santos Billed as premium SS defense with great tools. Super young, but could pan out.
  17. bean5302
    He wanted to follow the trend of former Twins pitcher debuts after seeing Gibson's performance at Yankee Stadium.
  18. bean5302
    As I recall, there were a couple arguments somebody made about Julien leading off. Julien does see a lot of pitches so he can provide a lot of insight and data for other guys, but he's not swinging at the ones he should swing at and he is swinging at the ones he shouldn't. Personally, I think it's mental stress from the pressure to produce or be demoted fast, like he was last year. There's almost a desperation in his approach. Julien hasn't been great over the past 10-15 games, but he has been adequate despite his shortcomings. Gasper is worse as a lead off guy by any reasonable strategy one can imagine, I think.
  19. bean5302
    New owners: Make decisions based on fan experience and data rather than what your 30 year entrenched management or nephew thinks.
  20. bean5302
    Left him off my top 20 prospects partially due to how he was performing this year.
  21. bean5302
    Every pitcher gives up hard contact. Just not on every single ball they throw. I get the impression you're angry at the metric or phrases related to them "hard contact" or "exit velocity." Let me put it an old fashioned way. Pretty much every ball Paddack threw came rocketing back past him like a hypersonic missile. He just got really lucky the balls flew directly at players in the field.
  22. bean5302
    I've never been a fan of the "young for the level" stuff. Virtually every good prospect plays at a level where they're significantly younger than the competition. It's why prospects cease to be "prospects" at age 25. If the player had the talent and the drive to be successful at MLB, they'd almost certainly already have been called up by age 25. Experience can improve results a lot through polish, but it doesn't improve talent.
  23. bean5302
    Honestly, I think Julien could do with a change of scenery, but he could also do with a mental shift. It feels like he's pressing hard with the memory of last year's sudden demotion after being considered a core piece of the Twins 2 weeks earlier. He obviously knows Royce is just a few days away, and we're seeing a lot of the same stuff we saw last year when Julien got ice cold.
  24. bean5302
    THIS. Paddack got the results, but the problem is he looked like Greg Maddux pranking Kris Bryant out there. Every hit, Greg doesn't even look back "Warning track?" Paddack only managed 2 strike outs in 5 innings and he had an average 95.0mph exit velocity. Paddack wasn't fooling anybody at all. There was literally a 90% contact rate on balls outside the zone. It was like a home run derby out there when the batter gets out of the groove. Sending him back out to the mound would have been playing with fire in a very close, important game.
  25. bean5302
    Nice start by Paddack. Lots of balls in play, but managed to get excellent results. The Twins were up against good pitching tonight and the lineup struggled apart from France having a night he really needed. Julien looked pretty rough tonight. He's been more or less holding his own in production recently, but way, way too many at bats serving as a shoulder bat rack. 5 pitch strikeout not swinging at a single pitch in his 2nd at bat. The he swings at back to back pitches in/near the dirt after seeing the same pitch in the same target zone on the first pitch? It's the same pitch... it's not moving 12" more. I think Julien's feeling the pressure big time.
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