bean5302

Pay him what? The Twins have already offered to Pay. The. Man. What would Buxton get in free agency. Today. Right now? 2/3 years max. $30-60MM, max. The Twins have offered him $80MM + unknown incentives. Buxton declined and then promptly went on the disabled list for the 346th time in his career over the next two months. Buxton isn't worth his WAR production because the Twins need to Pay. The. Man. and then Pay. Another. Man. to be a starting center fielder for the 80 games a year Buxton misses while still Paying. Two. More. Men. to the be the starting corner outfielders when the other starting fielder moves to the corner and one of those guys has to ride the bench for 80 games a year while the 4th outfielder gets demoted to AAA. The Twins need to allocate money to the right players, the players who not only help them win one game, but win games across the entire season. If the Twins can figure out a reasonable deal for Buxton, great, but he's hardly worth breaking the bank.

Baseball Reference uses Range Factor, which does not account for the shift. Range Factor ignores any plays where a fielder does not get a glove on a ball. It's a very old and limited metric developed 40 years ago so the shift wasn't a consideration. Since the Twins deploy the shift at a very high rate, their fielders frequently get more chances than average and Twins' fielders range factors get inflated as a result. Fangraphs uses Ultimate Zone Rating, which is supposed to account for the shift by excluding fielding plays while the shift is being used. UZR attempts to account for each actual defensive play, grading on how hard the ball was to get to, etc. In my opinion, it's a far superior metric to Range Factor; however, I think UZR is also less stable and requires a lot more innings played to get good information. Baseball Savant's Statcast data is kind of hybrid, IMO. Outs above Average tries to quantify the difficulty of getting to a ball and Runs Prevented has a pseudo-adjustment for the shift, but I don't really like the logic behind either one of them as I consider them basically the same as Range Factor with more bells and whistles kinda like OPS+ versus wRC+. There's rarely a significant difference between OPS+ and wRC+ , but wRC+ is a lot more work to calculate (and should be slightly more accurate). The only reason Simmons looks good on RF is because he had so many more chances than the average MLB SS because of the shift, it offset the high error rate this year. Polanco benefitted greatly from this effect in recent years as well. By UZR, Polanco is arguably the worst starting shortstop in modern MLB history.

Ultimately, I don't agree with giving these types of awards to non-Twins players. Following the logic of Berrios being the pitcher of the year, the Twins hitter of the year would be Nelson Cruz as he posted a wRC+ of 141 with the Twins this year. Neither player is on the Twins now or finished the year with the club. It just feels like a slight to the players on the club currently. This is rough to say, but I think Kenta Maeda is the pitcher of the year for the Twins since I wouldn't consider Berrios because he didn't finish the year as a Twins player. Maeda had obvious rough luck while he kept the Twins in the game most of his starts and he did it while pitching hurt.

Arbitration values are heavily based on the previous arbitration year. Garver was hurt and played poorly in 2020 so his 2021 arbitration salary was a meager $1.875MM. This year, he played very well, but was hurt half the season again so a huge increase in salary would have two factors working hard against it (previous arbitration year salary and injury). Players recognize how arbitration has worked previously and I think it's rare a player is upset at being paid at a normal rate.

The Yankees weren't going to offer really anything for Simmons, but they wouldn't have called the Twins just to purely waste time.

I'm not a fan of the Twins keeping Simmons. I would have rather them play Gordon or Palacios at SS every day than Simmons, but they had a different opinion than me. Other fans on the site have used the explanation Simmons provided a boost to young pitchers with the perception he provided good defense or it's possible the Twins believed Simmons was just in a bad year and wanted to keep him in good graces to potentially sign him at a very low contract value next year. I'm just pointing out the Yankees (and other teams) probably thought there was a good chance the Twins were going to DFA and release Simmons after he cleared waivers so there wasn't a good reason to trade prospects or eat any of Simmons' contract when he could be resigned for league minimum without any prospect capital lost. In fact, I think it was pretty surprising to most people Simmons wasn't DFA'd. At the end of the day, it played out the way it did. The Twins had their reasons and the Yankees had theirs.

It's pretty rare players force arbitration, but those numbers are probably pretty good ideas of what it's going to cost to retain those players while avoiding arbitration. I could see Buxton, Rogers and Garver potentially going to arbitration because their values are hard to gauge, but all three are also extension candidates. Rogers is a big question mark, though. The Twins are obviously going to have the inside track on Rogers' finger recovery. Since I haven't heard anything about him having surgery, I'm going to guess the flexor tendon strain is actually recovering nicely as I'd expect he'd know whether or not surgery was going to be required by now. I'd non-tender the following since I believe all of them could be easily retained at close to MLB minimum if needed. I doubt any of them would get better than a MiLB contract on the open market. Astudillo $1.2M Cave $1.1M Minaya $1.1M Refsnyder $800k

Honestly, based purely on production WAR vs. free agency cost per WAR, almost all of them would be underpaid. That's really to be expected, though. Arbitration isn't designed to pay players for their production at market value. It's kind of the ramp up from being paid MLB minimum type levels to their actual free agency production value. It's not too hard to argue the current system is totally unfair or argue the system is actually balanced by considering the risk of player performance and team investment.

The Yankees were eager to stay under the luxury tax threshold this year to potentially reset and they had precious little salary room to do so. Taking on Simmons' contract would probably have been a non-starter as a result. That puts the Twins into a situation of saying, okay, so what are you offering besides clearing a 26 man roster spot we still have to pay? Evidently, the Yankees didn't propose anything the Twins' front office viewed as legitimate talent in exchange for eating several million dollars of Simmons salary while he played in Yankee Stadium instead of Target Field. It's not hard to expect the Yankees to have kicked the tires on Simmons and offered nothing to the Twins as there may have been the perception the Twins would just DFA Simmons and release him for nothing after the trade deadline anyway.

The biggest difference here is the Twins know Buxton is an All Star level talent. He'll likely play at the ceiling of David Ortiz's value every single year where Buxton remains a qualified batter and there is still an outside shot for Buxton making the HoF. With Buxton's scorching hot streak to end the season, he once again fanned the flames of his MVP potential and, I believe, altered his potential trade value and contract negotiation strength completely. That's likely great for trading him and not so good for signing him. Somewhere in the 29 other teams across baseball is a front office who will believe Buxton can remain healthy and they'll be tempted to trade the farm for him and Buxton won't have a say in the matter. If the Twins do sign Buxton, the center fielder will have a lot more strength to bend the Twins' offer up in terms of guarantees and the incentives. The Twins making a bad trade where Buxton lives up to his potential will at least erase the David Ortiz talk. Buxton will be the new worst trade of all time Twins fans quote whenever a player they like leaves the organization for someplace else.

The Twins have 2 potential Hall of Famers who started young in Minnesota in the past 40 years, David Ortiz and Joe Mauer. Of course, lost in the conversation is the fact the Twins didn't draft or originally sign Ortiz. He was traded to the Twins from the Seattle Mariners for Dave Hollins. Seattle signed Ortiz as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic. Part of the obsession with Ortiz is just how terribly the Twins have drafted, developed and retained players across recent baseball history. Had the Twins retained Ortiz and watched him blossom into the hitter he became at Boston, they wouldn't have been able to keep him under contract anyway because they would have lost him to free agency in 2005. I suppose the Twins would have traded Ortiz instead of watching him walk, but the 3 pitch to contact depth arms they would have targeted in exchange would have flopped anyway.

Rooker's speed and route running were both above average. "Them's the facts" as they say, but the data also shows he takes way too long reading the balls off the bat for an MLB outfielder. Larnach has an above average arm, but all the assessments seemed to point to Rooker having an average arm. I do feel like there's a pretty negative perception of Rooker which seems to allow for a bad play here or there to really be burned into people's minds. His UZR/150 is definitely rough this year at -8.9 in LF; however, it was only in 264 innings. A full season is about 1200 innings. He's getting a bit long in the tooth to improve his defense, but it may still be possible. I agree his bat is the important part of the package.

I don't need to agree with everything somebody says to like where they're coming from. I think the topic is getting political and I like @Unwinder pointing that out.

I don't think a multi-year deal would probably be necessary for Duffey. It feels like most mid-inning relievers wind up on 1 year contacts and that's what Duffey was this year. I think a 1 year $3-4MM deal sounds about right to avoid arbitration. I'd absolutely sign him. He's cheap and I'd expect him to be at least an effective mid-innings guy with upside if he figures out what went wrong this year.

The obvious answer is MiLB players do choose to live this way and did choose to live that way before their 60% pay increase.

All I'm saying is people have to make sacrifices when they chase their dream. MLB owners and executives unfairly take advantage of players in a lot of ways, but when it comes to MiLB compensation I don't see it being such a huge issue when the larger picture is taken into consideration. MiLB players received 6-7 figure signing bonuses at age 18-22. The minimum slot bonus for the top 300 picks in baseball is more than $100,000. That's plenty to supplement income or live on directly for the entirety of their MiLB career. Agent fees are not relevant for players who do not receive a large signing bonus, and for those who get a large signing bonus, they're not relevant for affording a place to live because they have enough to live on for years. For those who receive a mid-size signing bonus (Say $50-100k), the fees are typically are tax deductible and the contract payment is structurable so that taxes are minimized. The agent fees are actually similar to union dues. If you don't make much, the fee isn't much. Taxes are not a significant expense for any signing bonus under $100k. If you think they are, I feel strongly you do not understand how the tax codes work, but that's not intended as an insult. Most people don't and don't care to for that matter. What matters is at the end of the day to me is the perception taxes on signing bonuses are significant to whether or not a MiLB player can afford rent is false. If you really want me to break out how the tax code would be applied on a line item for a signing bonus and subsequent MiLB salary, I can do that. I suspect you don't. MiLB players who have not received a signing bonus of at least $100k are going to be college graduates who did not impress enough to make the top 10 rounds of the MLB draft. They're fringey, long shot, MiLB roster filler for the most part. Yes. College graduates, because players do not sign before graduating college without a bonus. There are some exceptions. Some IFA's from less scouted countries can get the shaft. Something needs to be done about that. Service industry jobs desperately hire on the spot right now and have been hiring on the spot for anybody with experience for years now. While there are undoubtedly some cities in the US where this isn't the case, based on the reports out of every form of major media, those places not hiring are rare. Service industry jobs are hiring at far over minimum wage and most receive significant tips on top. I have plenty of friends in the service industry across the country or who've worked service industry jobs out of college. Not making at least $15/hr right now (or close to it) including tips would be unusual for a server or bartender. Sublets, and single room rentals on month to month deals are not generally super difficult. I do think MiLB should do a lot more here since it wouldn't be that hard to rent out an entire small apartment building or something for players. This part is harder, but certainly not impossible. COVID lockdowns, etc, have made it far harder... but COVID has given the shaft to huge swaths of people outside MiLB as well. It's not some unique issue here. Also, the idea players are constantly shifted between levels is absurd. They generally move 1 level per year outside rookie ball. Managing a budget isn't necessarily fun, but it's not rocket science. I feel people have incorporated a cause into their personal identity, but have an incomplete picture of the cause they're forwarding. From what I feel is a more comprehensive position, the situation for most MiLB is not so riddled with strife as some things written on the internet may have people believing. There will always be the exception, but I don't believe more than a handful of MiLB players truly have a real issue they couldn't work out by being responsible based on their age and professional experience. I'd be more inclined to have a discussion on front office worker compensation than MiLB compensation levels, but it honestly wouldn't likely be a "baseball" related topic and probably veer off into politics so it's not appropriate for TwinsDaily IMHO. It's not that I don't understand where the perception is coming from. I do. I just probably know more about taxes, finances and budgeting than a large majority of people do. Maybe I'm not being fair because I have a high degree of knowledge in the area and it makes me expect a higher degree of understanding from other people or a willingness to put in effort to understand their financial situation. The MiLB player compensation level does not appear dire to me right now. The increase in pay they are receiving now is massive, but I also do agree MiLB could do a lot to improve the situation. Like the aforementioned idea of providing accomodations at an apartment building the team rents from the apartment's owner and sublets to the players. That wouldn't cost a team hardly any money. Basically, I'm saying the argument that more than a small minority of MiLB players cannot support themselves and virtually no MiLB players do not have the option of being able to afford the basic necessities isn't accurate in my opinion. I'm also saying, if you're following a dream, sometimes you have to make sacrifices. That's what people outside the world of baseball have to do and baseball players are not special. It's just another job to me.

Totally baseless that a healthy male college graduate who has the option of playing baseball for an MLB team's minor league affiliate (means no criminal record or obvious public relations snafu) around age 22 can "PROBABLY" get a job for $15/hr if they want it? We're getting off into the political weeds now, but my statement is not to be used out of context.

I just did the math and explanation on how to overcome this above. It's easy.

Limited? 56-70% of the players who batted for the Kernels received a $90k+ signing bonus (there were 3 IFA's I didn't find numbers on and an Empire League player as well). Also, the payments should never be a one and done. The payments are usually structured over at least 2 tax years. Let's assume we take the absolute minimum significant bonus I used and do some quick math. $90k signing bonus payable over 2 tax years is $45k per year. The player is going to have taxable income of maybe $30k so figure $3.5k annually in federal tax and maybe as much as $1k in state tax. Grand total income tax bill? $9k, max. Net compensation, $81k, not $50-60k. Next step, I expect the player to use the bonus as supplemental income, not try to live off it if they can't afford to live off it. In other words. If you can't find a job which pays $15/hr right now in the U.S. you are probably not trying. Assume the player doesn't want to work during the baseball season so they only work 6 months out of the year. So that's $15k more income annually (basically tax free). How much does it cost to do subleases or rent a room out in a house while covering 1/2 your food costs? Any MiLB player should be able to make ends meet at a net of $30k/yr. So if we assume the $90k signing bonus is used as a sinking fund, the player could make ends meet, responsibly for at least 5 years. This is basic financial stuff and any player signing a contract has an agent who knows this stuff. So what about the players who got no signing bonus? They are the long-shot players who've graduated from college or already had the financial resources to not need a signing bonus. If you want to follow a dream as a long shot hoping something good happens, you should be willing to invest in the sacrifice. It very likely won't work out, you'll be a 11th+ round pick as a college graduate and you'll probably know where you stand very quickly. In a year or two, it'll be obvious if you potentially have what it takes. If you do, you get a loan/advance from an investment company for that $15k a year you need. This is not rocket science.

The majority of MiLB players earn big bonuses. Slot values for bonuses are above $100,000 for all players signed in the first 10 rounds, and while some players sign without getting a bonus, it's not super common. Looking at all the Cedar Rapids Kernels position players this year: 4 of 23 received at least $1,800,000 9 of 23 received at least $483,000 13 of 23 received at least $90,000 3 of 23 I wasn't able to find data for, but were International Free Agent signings (IFA) 7 of 23 received bonuses of $10k or less. Sabato = $2.75MM Steer = $575k Severino = $2.5MM Julien = $493k Cabbage = $760k Morales = Unknown IFA Wallner = $1.8MM Snyder = $1k Helman = $220k Cabrera = None? Empire League Smith = None? Round 33 Prato = $275k Isola = None? Round 29 Keirsey = $600k Camargo = Unknown IFA (Dodgers) Javier = $4MM Gray = $483k Maciel = $90k Ozoria = $125k Schmidt = $1k Williams = $10k Encarnacion = Unknown IFA Hall = None? Undrafted FA I find the bonuses are rarely included in the conversations about MiLB income. Players drafted in the very late rounds rarely sign unless they're college seniors and they want to take a shot at baseball, knowing they have a short window to prove it and they have a degree to fall back on. A Low/High A player earns a minimum of $500/week, which isn't much, but most of those teams are based on smaller cities where costs of living are low. Cedar Rapids, IA is 30% cheaper than Minneapolis, for example. MiLB players are often college age and rent in Cedar Rapids typically runs $300-500/mo based on what I was finding on Craigslist. When home, teams provide 1 meal per day. When traveling, MiLB teams cover the cost of travel, hotels. and a $25/day per diem for meals. They can make ends meet if they're responsible. Lots of people, including myself, have made ends meet under similar budget constraints.

I feel like the Twins were virtually identical to Tampa from in regard to the revolving door of names until the Target Field era. The Rays have a very serious stadium placement issue, though Florida teams seem to have widespread fanbase issues in general. I do expect a payroll floor to be agreed upon in the next CBA so Tampa will have to spend more, but I half expect that to be leverage for new ownership/stadiums to be pushed in Tampa, Oakland and Pittsburgh.

I don't think they would. Tampa generally doesn't trade their players until they have 2 or fewer years of team control. The Twins have 4 more years of control so Tampa would never actively push that move. Sano, Garver, Berrios, Rogers, Buxton and Kepler would be gone by the 2022 trade deadline.

I can picture the Twins saying, he's played 92 or fewer MLB games for the 6th season in his 7 year career, his OPS dropped 200 points since his return to the line up on Aug 27th because he had a league average or worse bat over that span of time until last night. Don't call me and scream show me the money every time your player has a good game. By the way, I assume when I get a call about Buxton, he's hurt again. We should probably sit him for the last couple games so he isn't hurt this offseason.

Yeah, I hear you on that. I was taking into consideration the division the Yankees play in. There are 4 good teams there and the Yankees are below the other 3 vs. 2 good teams in the AL West. Plus I dislike the Yankees far more so I can't allow myself to give them credit for anything haha