bean5302

I think your price is totally reasonable if the Twins are expecting to compete. If they're not expecting to compete, that's a different story. The Pohlad family runs the Twins very much like a typical business and as business owners, they seem quite conservative. A poor peforming team at $140MM is going to operate in the red and the Pohlad family seems unwilling to operate that way.

I'd take league minimum to play for the Yankees (only because I'd be horrible and hurt their chances at winning even with my absolute best effort)! I'm not a free agent, 29 year old, starting corner outfielder without a QO. One year for $8MM is pretty paltry for that.

Should happen does not reverse what does happen.

I think you're significantly overvaluing Buxton's leverage (and his on field value) right now and looking at things a little too simply. I don't see Buxton as an MVP talent. I see him as an All Star talent based on some scary peripherals like BB/K rates and small sample sizes. 1. How do the Twins benefit from the aforementioned contract? It boils down to a 2-3 year deal where if Buxton sucks, he stays for 3 more seasons and if he does well, he leaves. Those types of contracts are for elite talent players who have backed up that elite performance across full seasons before and just had a down year. 2. This one is easy. The Twins don't "balk" at the full guaranteed, full value extension, they trade Buxton immediately and let somebody else deal with primadonna-like demands without discussing the contract extension discussion publicly. 3. The idea Buxton can test the market, prove there is no market and then come back to the Twins and get their best offer weeks or months later isn't realistic. The Twins, like any other team, will move on and not wait for Buxton to come back. If Buxton did come back to the Twins in that scenario, he'd be in a position of no leverage and having to accept a much lower value. Lance Lynn found out the very hard way offers aren't forever when he declined the Cardinals' OQ and subsequent offers (including multi-year offers) from other teams before he settled for the lower 1 year $12MM Twins contract. I don't think any team in baseball would give Buxton more than $10MM-$15MM per year for 2-3 years guaranteed right now. Negotiation is just risk calculation. What is the team willing to risk vs. what is the player willing to risk?

Definitely a lot of work put into stuff like this and I can appreciate it, I just don't think it's realistic for the Twins to spend $140MM in a season they don't expect to compete (by your words).

Sixto Sanchez underwent capsule repair shoulder surgery with additional cleanup. There is no timetable on him and the chances he returns at his pre-surgery performance levels are poor if he ever returns to MLB caliber at all. This isn't UCL surgery, this is shoulder surgery which often ruins pitching careers.

I don't even think jersey sales are "great" let alone perfect haha. But it's something. Besides, if Buxton jerseys were super popular, they'd just make more. They've sold a lot fewer Buxton jerseys than a lot of other players this year so supply of material shouldn't be a limiting factor... and MLB's insatiable hunger for the almighty dollar isn't in question, either.

Honestly, there's a reason players fall off the ballot in a single year like Santana did. Santana threw a no-hitter for the New York Mets. It doesn't get much bigger than that. Everybody was aware of how outstanding Santana was, he just didn't play long enough and he played on a lot of crappy teams. 45 fWAR, 51 bWAR. I think the comeback attempts actually hurt him quite a bit. It put speculation into how hard he was trying to make a comeback and kind of turned him into a joke. If you're going to try a comeback, you need to make it back. A good example for Cole Hamels. not saying that's fair criticism, but fan perception isn't "fair."

The way Eddie hits crazy bad pitches shows he knows where pitches are going. If he'd just lay off the junk, what he's doing right now is the every day player he'd be. So frustrating, haha. Glad to see people enjoying themselves. Doesn't matter if they're playing for the Twins or not.

I don't see the legitimate potential he's better than a OPS+/wRC+ 125ish hitter. Even if he played a full season, which he never will, I expect Buxton would wind up at 5-6 WAR. This past season, Buxton started off with 2.7 fWAR in about 20 games. Then he actually lost WAR and was down to 2.2 fWAR by the last week of September before exploding over 10 games or so to jump back up to 4.2 fWAR. Once all Buxton's adjustments get scouted, pitchers will also adjust and they'll take advantage of Buxton's weak hit tool and poor plate discipline. Essentially, he's not going to get meatballs to send over the fence.

The Twins should offer Buxton... the opportunity to play somewhere else while the Twins focus on players who play full seasons.

Apparently, you're in a small minority on that one since 3/4 top selling Twins jerseys on MLB are for just that. I buy custom jerseys. I will never be traded... not even for a snickers bar. Guess Jose Canseco and I are the same that way.

Dozier vs. Forsythe 2015 - 2.8 bWAR / 3.1 fWAR vs. 4.6 bWAR / 4.1 fWAR 2016 - 5.8bWAR / 6.3 fWAR vs. 3.3 bWAR / 2.7 fWAR (127 games) Forsythe looked like a 4 win second baseman. He wasn't valued as highly as Dozier since Dozier was viewed as about a 5 win second baseman as I recall. There wasn't some enormous chasm between the two in value perception. It was widely speculated Dozier just had a one off, career year. By the time 2017 was completed, Dozier was a short term asset.

Kepler's trade value is high, it's just not elite. In fact, it's higher than some names like Buxton, Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, Ryan, Ober, Canterino and Rogers on Baseballtradevalues.com. That site isn't perfect, but it presents a much less biased view of players than fan sites have. Before people absolutely lose their minds at the audacity of Kepler being ranked higher than Buxton in terms of trade value, the valuation website just uses data.

I just don't see your point as valid. In my opinion, Dozier and Polanco do not have similar values. Not only do I believe Dozier viewed very differently than Polanco is now, but there was a huge amount of difference in cost and control. Dozier came with some serious warning bells and not only other teams in MLB noticed, so did the Twins. Dozier was begging for an extension and the Twins wouldn't even talk with him. That's poor asset management by the front office as they provided other teams with reason to worry about Dozier. Anyway, the Dodgers offered a top prospect (top 25-50 overall) for Dozier, Jose De Leon, but the Twins wanted another top prospect as well. Ultimately, the Dodgers traded De Leon for another short term 2B, Logan Forsythe, who was being paid less than Dozier and performing nearly as well. The Twins undoubtedly could have gotten De Leon and another good prospect for Dozier, but they weren't going to get De Leon, and another top 100 or better. I suspect the Twins were asking for Calhoun or Buehler in addition. We don't know what other teams offered, but the Twins were absolutely demanding a haul. They didn't expect Dozier to decline as much as he did over the next two seasons.

While I agree Buxton is popular on Twins Daily, I don't think he's that popular with regular fans. A quick stop at The MLB Shop reveals something truly depressing. Popular "Top Seller" Twins jerseys in order of the names appearance as you scroll down on the showcased merchandise include the names: Puckett Carew Polanco Ortiz (#27 not joking) Kepler Killebrew Sano I'd wager most fans really don't care much about Buxton. He's always hurt and he acquired the name Byron Buston before his breakout at the plate. Regular fans are fickle like that and what has Buxton really, truly accomplished from an average fan perspective? Nothing worth noting. He's just a guy who plays a few games in between injuries and has never even made an All Star game.

31 year old Dozier had 2 months of team control left, was making $9MM a year, wasn't eligible for a qualifying offer and was playing like dookie. So apart from 28 year old Polanco having 4 years of team control left, making $5.5MM next year, being eligible for a qualifying offer at the end of the 4 years of team control and playing at an All Star level currently, this is pretty close to the same.

Well, at least we're not comparing Buxton to Trout today, we're only comparing Buxton to argualy the best player in baseball at the time he was extended (Mauer) instead of potentially the best player in history (Trout). I can see big similarities, except not really... Mauer was already recognized as one of the best players in all of MLB and on a Hall of Fame career path before 2009's breakout. He'd already won two consecutive batting titles, was a 2-time All Star, finishing in the top 6 in MVP voting twice. Mauer was the de-facto face of the franchise and the most popular and valuable marketing tool the Twins ever had. Buxton won Twins fan site awards and a Gold Glove at a lesser position in the one year he qualified, and he just had a really great 61 game season, so at least that's something.

As mentioned above, All Star caliber 2nd baseman with several years of cheap team control are extremely valuable. Teams looking to compete aren't counting on "prospects" to carry them. Prospects are played during the initial phases of building to find out what holes teams need to fill and teams expecting to contend aren't in initial build phases. Baseballtradevalues lists Polanco at #1 by a country mile in terms of Twins assets, which probably says more about the Twins than it does about Polanco, but Polanco still ranks as the 78th most trade valuable player in all of MLB right now on that site. Should the Twins trade Polanco? I'd say no, unless they're rebuilding. What's he worth? A Royce Lewis and Simeon Woods-Richardson type combined, plus a sweetener.

I'm not saying Nick Gordon is Ehire Adrianza's clone. I'm saying Nick Gordon fills the typical profile for a utility player. Cheap. Not somebody you think you want to start, but still has some potential upside. Able to cover a lot of defensive positions. The Twins made it clear they don't trust Nick Gordon at shortstop at the MLB level; however, they also made it clear they viewed him as a shortstop by playing him the vast majority of his time across 4,500 MiLB innings. Some utility players are viewed as defensive wizards, but not all of them. Danny Santana and Eduardo Nunez were horrible shortstops and Adrianza was mediocre. Yes. If Gordon cleared waivers on a DFA, analysts and fans would be stunned. Gordon hasn't hit left handed pitching well as a lefty, but platoon players are generally players who do not hit effectively against both righties and lefties. I don't see the Twins platooning Arraez with anybody next year. With Donaldson on the roster and Miranda pounding at the door, the need for Arraez to cover 3rd is neglible. He can't play shortstop or cover center field making Arraez a poor option for utility, not to mention he's proven to have the talent to be a starter and has a ton of trade value. Arraez is certainly not pushing Polanco off 2nd base and what a debacle it would be to move Polanco back to shortstop. Bottom line, Arraez/Polanco/Donaldson/Miranda are an incompatible, not complimentary group.

I could see the Twins dropping to $100MM this offseason and starting a rebuild because of the mess their roster is in, but not below that if the MLB proposal of a $100MM competitive balance floor goes into place. The $150MM ceiling is about where I think the Twins should be on any given average year, not their true ceiling, but that's just my opinion based on their market size and potential revenues.

I've seen Syndergaard mentioned a couple times in here. I don't see it happening. Syndergaard has made it clear as day he wants to stay with the Mets and indicates he'd accept a QO if one is made. Even though he was instructed not to throw breaking balls, throwing any pitches at the MLB level this year should have made an impact on how other teams view Thor at this point. The Mets are undoubtedly gauging his value on the open market, and Syndergaard is likely looking at 1 year contracts at this point. Could the Mets outbid all the competition for 1 year of Syndergaard if they fail to make him a QO? Sure. How much would they save? My guess is less than $3MM. Some team is at least going to give Syndergaard 1 year and $15MM meaning the dice roll when Stroman is already likely to leave would be a sign of incompetence in my opinion. Still, it's the Mets and such a move would be par for the course. When it comes to Verlander, the Astros owner is on record saying they'll probably make a QO to Verlander, but Verlander is looking for a contract of "considerable length." I'd think Verlander would decline the QO. Even on the open market, I'd think the worst Verlander would possibly do is 1 year $15MM so I'd think there's virtually no risk him in declining. I think he'll be available, but I also think he's going to be picky about where he signs. He'll want to be with a contender and the Twins finished dead last in what is shaping up to be a much tougher division going forward. For the Twins to even entertain signing Verlander, they'll need to prove they're in it to win it and that seems like a long-shot.

No, I'm not. Honestly, with that, I'm just leaving this thread considering how vitriolistic and nasty the last one related to this got. I didn't really check back in with this site for a week.

50. Cody Laweryson, LHP *added 2.11.20 Age: 21 2019 Highest Level: A Cedar Rapids With mid to low velocity, Lawyerson uses a nice breaking ball to get outs. His 12.3 K/9 over 46.0 professional innings shows some promise, but most of that was in Rookie ball. He needs to do the same in A Ball in 2020 to get any consideration outside of this tier. https://www.prospects1500.com/al-central/minnesota-twins-2020-top-50-prospects/ In an interview with Seth on Youtube prior to this season, Laweryson says he's a fastball/slider/changeup guy right now and the changeup was a recent addition to this arsenal. He described himself as fastball heavy and the type of guy who really needs to avoid walks. He was concentrating on developing his slider.

Rogers is a no-doubter to sign if his finger has recovered, and based on the timeline... it really should be provided he doesn't need surgery after all. Since surgery was an option, but not an absolute requirement, I'm taking a wild guess that Rogers was dealing with a pretty serious Grade III pulley strain issue. https://theclimbingdoctor.com/pulley-injuries-explained-part-2/#:~:text=6-8 weeks is the,ROM exercises after immobilization phase. Grade III – Complete A2 or A3 rupture (Most common pulley injury – A2) 3 months are recommended for a return to FULL climbing activities due to the biomechanical implications of an A2/A3 pulley rupture. Immobilization for 10-14 days is necessary to protect the pulley and after the immobilization/splinting process, you will use a thermoplastic pulley ring provided by a doctor instead of tape (more on the ring later). Passive ROM exercises following immobilization. Functional exercises will begin at the full 4 week mark, and EASY climbing will commence after a 6-8 week period from injury onset. At 3 months you can begin full climbing activities, and you’ll wear the pulley ring (or tape) for roughly 6 months after climbing begins again. In the linked website from The Climbing Doctor, it says full climbing can resume in about 3 months with taping... that was a month ago for Taylor Rogers, and full and complete recovery around 6 months. I haven't heard a thing about Rogers throwing recently. Just that he was scheduled to see a specialist in September, which should have been about where he could resume full normal physical activities. Obviously, pitching is different than climbing, but the stresses on the finger from climbing would be greater than that of a typical pitcher throwing, I'd assume. Why? Because the finger strain seems to be relatively common for climbers and very rare for pitchers. Just a guess though. If Rogers hasn't recovered from the strain, it's a bad sign he'll need to go the surgical route and now we're starting to get to the point where his 2022 is in clear danger. It's worth noting, articles on the surgery indicate it's not always fully successful in that pain can persist and range of motion can be impacted, requiring potentially another surgery. If Rogers is going to need surgery, the Twins' situation becomes a lot murkier and I'd pass on signing Rogers.