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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    A little bird on the internet told me. I don't think it's officially announced.
  2. bean5302
    I refrained from voting either way. I ultimately think baseball would be best served by incorporating the MiLB players into the MLBPA, but I was willing to play devil's advocate here. There are some major issues with putting MiLB players into the union, but I think it's best for players to front-load this arrangement and for the MLBPA to trade off some leverage for their current MLB players to get the entire player base under the umbrella so the owners can't leverage MiLB players against MLB players in the future. With MLB already owning a special monopoly exemption, a strong union is just about the only thing which can really force owners to treat players fairly. Since we haven't heard anything about the MLBPA planning to do this, the MLBPA could use that to their advantage. Push MLB owners to the brink in the new CBA and then organizing non-40 man MiLB players into the MLBPA afterwards for a second bite at the apple.
  3. bean5302
    Word is Palacios is signed and he needs to be on the 40 man. He didn't appear on the MiLB free agency report. As such, I'd expect to see him at Spring Training. I could see him getting the utility infielder job if Arraez is traded with Gordon getting the utility outfielder role.
  4. bean5302
    Kilts and tartans covering the entire sky!
  5. bean5302
    Ryan pitched about 115 innings in total last year between AAA, MLB and the Olympics. Modern pitchers go 5-6 innings per start so that would be 160-192 innings if he started all 32 games. I wouldn't expect the Twins to be looking to limit his innings below 160. I also believe the Twins are more likely to implement a pitch count limit than an actual innings limit so it may come down to how efficient Ryan is during the season. Even more will depend on how Ryan feels and any signs of fatigue. In regard to Ober, I'd also think the Twins wouldn't be concerned about him throwing 160 innings. Injuries have riddled Ober's career so here's hoping he stays healthy, but expecting 32 starts out of him might be considered pretty optimistic. Ober pounds the strike zone and walks few hitters so I'd expect him to be pretty efficient when effective. With Ober's age, I'd think the Twins would pretty much leave it up to how Ober feels or signs of him fading due to fatigue. In regard to their overall performance, I'd hope both can keep their ERA/FIP under 4.50. That would be a success. Everything under 4.25 would be ice cream on top.
  6. bean5302
    Under the current CBA rules, the Tigers would lose a pick. I suspect the Tigers will receive revenue sharing, meaning the Tigers would lose their 3rd highest draft pick. Since the Tigers will not qualify for the Competitive Balance Pick under current rules, that means they'd lose their 3rd rounder. If the Tigers were to sign another player with a QO, they'd also lose their 4th rounder. Considering the strength of the Tigers' system, the status of the team as being in clear build and compete mode, I don't consider the loss of a pick substantial. It was absolutely expected the Tigers were going to do this.
  7. bean5302
    SDI rankings shouldn't be used with teams that shift a lot. UZR/150 = -1.1 = Average Shortstop Range Factor / 9 = 4.03 vs. league average 3.81 = Excellent SDI = 11.8 = Excellent Range Factor and SDI aren't accurate for modern baseball because they don't account for the shift. Range Factor and SDI are based on how many outs the fielder is making directly or assisting with. The Twins shift a lot meaning Simmons gets more opportunities to field balls so the Range Factor and SDI values are inflated.
  8. bean5302
    $0. I wouldn't even discuss a contract with him this offseason. I'd trade him. I don't want to insult him with what he considers a totally unfair offer and I don't value him at an elite level.
  9. bean5302
    So much of what St. Peter talks about is really just perserverence. Be willing to take job risks. Be willing to move. Be willing to start your own business, even. Network with people. It's a recipe for higher income and more options in terms of where you want to be in any company or industry hierarchy across the board. If you remain committed, you'll eventually find yourself in a spot you want.
  10. bean5302
    Wallner is really impressing in the Arizona Fall League. He's managed to keep his overall strike out rate under 30.0% with a walk rate right at 10.0% and I think that's the part I'm most excited about seeing. It lends a little credence to him being able to transistion to high minors and MLB without probably relying entirely on mistake pitches. That said, I think I'm calculating a .473 BABIP, which is ludicrously high.
  11. bean5302
    I'd bet 70% that Detroit signs Verlander at this point.
  12. bean5302
    Yep. If he's going to opt out, it means he's pitched great and the Tigers will know in advance and work out an extension.
  13. bean5302
    fWAR is based on FIP. bWAR is based on ERA. In a perfect world, those two stats match each other pretty closely; however, there are some pitchers out there who consistently have results above or below their FIP so using a predictive stat (like FIP) isn't as valuable in evaluating what actually happened. I "prefer" using bWAR looking back at value for contracts.
  14. bean5302
    The only reason the Tigers were able to sign him at $16MM annually was because of the opt out so the other option to make the signing was to go higher in AAV. Either way, if Rodriguez doesn't pitch well, the Tigers are hosed. If Rodriguez pitches exceptionally well, the Tigers are still free to negotiate an extention before the opt out. A lot of fans have the idea teams have the ability to dictate to the players what the market will bear in the same way a lot of companies feel like they can offer a product or service at a specific price they want to sell it at. The reality is, good pitching costs whatever it costs. If that's 10 years $10 billion, then it's 10 years and $10 billion. Would I have done 5 years and $80MM for Rodriguez? 100% yes. While he didn't have the ERA last season, Rodriguez's ERA and FIP have been nicely mirroring each other throughout his career and he's had FIPs of 3.97, 3.65, 3.86 and 3.32 his last 4 years. Extremely similar to Berrios (3.78 FIP 12.7 fWAR) with Rodriguez (3.71 FIP is 28 11.6 fWAR) having a slight edge in FIP, but a little less fWAR because he doesn't eat quite as many innings as Berrios. Would you have extended Berrios for 5 years and $80MM? Of course you would. The Twins fans would be jumping for joy at that during the regular season.
  15. bean5302
    When it comes to evaluating pitching performances, I'd prefer to see bWAR since that's what actually happened vs. fWAR which is what could have happened. More than anything, what the commonality in Twins pitcher signings is going mid market and cheaper doesn't pay.
  16. bean5302
    Trying to sneak in deals before the next CBA could be awfully risky though. See Minnesota Wild, chapters Parise, Zack and Suter, Ryan.
  17. bean5302
    Jeffers looked pretty rough in the more extensive exposure to MLB pitching this year. He's moved up the ladder pretty quickly so getting a feel for Jeffers' bat is tough as there just isn't a lot to look at from the high minors. Jeffers really struggled against the slider and sinker in 2021 whereas he handled the slider very well in 2020 and was neutral on the sinker. Jeffers was also much pull heavy in 2021 after using all the fields in 2020. Honestly, Jeffers' performance in 2021 shows very little luck involved. His wOBA and xWOBA were close. He just struck out a lot more, walked less, and didn't hit balls as hard as he did in 2020. It's too early to tell if Jeffers can make the adjustments he needs to make in order to be average or better at the plate. Being a catcher, he can provide value at wRC+ 90 or better, it's just not ideal.
  18. bean5302
    A new CBA is going to be negotiated. It's tough to say what the MLBPA will or will not want or how closely they're interested in the deployment of pitchers. They're definitely super interested in the "pitch clock" and other changes MLB has made to how you can deploy pitchers such as how MLB has eliminated the LOOGY. To say the MLBPA has no control over the rules is inaccurate.
  19. bean5302
    There is a reason for starters and relievers. Relievers are pitchers who cannot be successful while starting. Usually, that has to do with being unable to fool hitters multiple times because of limited pitch offerings or major splits issues when facing right handed or left handed hitters. Relievers are situational. Relievers rely much more on mystery than starters do. No matter how you look at it, the more times a hitter sees a pitcher or the more innings a pitcher throws, the more likely the chink in the armor will be magnified. Only going 1.5 times through a line up in 3.0 inning appearances instead of 3 times through a lineup in a 7 inning appearance will only shield the "not good enough to be starters" middle relievers for a short time before exposing all the smoke and mirrors. The best starters can through lineups over and over while being at least as effective as a middle innings reliever. If the Twins are committed to rebuilding and potentially losing 100 games in the experiment, they may wind up being correct in the all short innings scenario. Seems strange they'd dump Gant if that was the approach... Then again, Falvey seems to be one of those types always interested in a new project and somebody else's shiny piece of scrap.
  20. bean5302
    The CBA covers how how players are paid, how much they're paid, how players are rostered, and changes to the games rules. MLB does not have the right to change rules without the MLBPA's approval unless there has been at least one year of negotiation under the current CBA, for example. https://d39ba378-ae47-4003-86d3-147e4fa6e51b.filesusr.com/ugd/b0a4c2_95883690627349e0a5203f61b93715b5.pdf It's 373 pages long. Read it at your leisure, but know it will be null and void in like 2 weeks, haha.
  21. bean5302
    The whole 3 pitchers for 3 innings thing works great... except when a pitcher or two has a bad day and he can't make it more than 1 inning. Have a couple blow out games where you burn through 6 pitchers and you've got nothing to call on.
  22. bean5302
    People like referencing Tampa Bay, but would never accept the methodology the Rays employ. We wouldn't even be talking about a Buxton extension. He wouldn't even have gotten an offer from the Rays because every team in baseball would know he was going to be traded. Kepler, Polanco, Garver, Sano, Donaldson (who wouldn't be on the team to begin with) would all be on the open trade market. At least 3 of the 5 would be gone. Also, the Rays were miserable for a decade while they built up their farm system and no, they're not "always a contender" as they finished 2014-2017 under .500 every year. The Rays have an unorthodox approach similar to Oakland, but the Rays' have been better at developing pitching than the A's, and the Rays seem to have a little more payroll flexibility when they need it.
  23. bean5302
    Small/Mid Market are not the same. They should not be grouped the same in this discussion as they operate differently. Mid market teams need to spend mid market money by definition and that means the money needs go to somewhere. Either to their own players who signed extensions just before free agency or by signing free agents. Anyway, one way or the other, successful teams usually have multiple big contracts on the books. Josh Donaldson's $21MM year a is big, but not that big. The 2016 Tigers had 3 people under contract making more than Donaldson and 3 more making $17MM+. Half of those big contracts were in house extensions and half were free agents. Of course, Detroit was out of control like a drunk retiree living on HSN back then. Just shooting from the hip Small Market = 1-2 year window, 4-5 year rebuild. Mid Market = 3-4 year window, 3-4 year rebuild. Large Market = 5-6 year window, 2-4 year rebuild. In terms of payroll, Small market < $130MM, Mid Market $130-160MM, Large Market $160MM+ on an annual basis. A $20MM short term (1-2 year) bump in the competitive window should be expected. The Twins should, but do not, operate in that fashion. Instead, they're a mid market team which is trapped in its small market roots.
  24. bean5302
    Make it 100 losses and I'll agree even more.
  25. bean5302
    I'd go for it. The Twins have a bunch of pitching prospects with high upside and some logjammed high end talent on the 40 man roster they could trade for components they need. The Twins need a #1 and #2 starter. If Maeda comes back next year (I'm skeptical) they could really have a great rotation. Trade Sano, Larnach, Arraez, Buxton and maybe a prospect or two for other prospects, a #2 and a outfielder who can cover center in case Celestino can't make it as a starter. Sign Escobar, Verlander. Move Donaldson to DH. Something like that.
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