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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I think memories are more fickle than you're expressing here. The Twins have 3 of their past 7 years in mediocrity and while the team was definitely bad in 2011-2012, fans and the front office seemed to view the team as mediocre, but terribly unlucky, with a couple holes they needed to plug. I think the yo-yo is better, but I don't think the rebuild phase is even necessary for teams who can afford to budget well over $150MM every year. The rebuild phase would generally get lengthier and the competitive window smaller as the team's budget decreases. One of the big reasons I believe the yo-yo is valuable is the enormous amount of cash that gets pumped into franchises making it to the World Series a couple times in a competitive window. i.e. Royals. Average payroll for the 5 years before their first World Series from 2010-2014 was $68MM (low $36MM). From 2015-2019, it was $110MM (low $68MM). The cash starved, poor stadium location, epitome of small market Royals were frequently spending more than the Twins. Success breeds success.
  2. bean5302
    Yes. I believe the Twins are going to bring him back as the every day shortstop and I think Simmons will likely be even worse.
  3. bean5302
    Doesn't mean much to us, but it meant a lot to the Blue Jays fans who were disgruntled, haha. It really robbed them of their inertia. I have high hopes for Martin and Woods-Richardson and I continue to like the the trade given the Twins' situation.
  4. bean5302
    Wallner has big power, it's just a question of whether or not his eye at the plate will play. The AFL seems to be somewhere between A+ and AA competition level in my opinion. Since Wallner has 40 grade speed, he's going to need to rake in order to provide any value at the MLB level. Right now, Wallner is .278/.400/.611 OPS 1.011 with a 13.3% BB and 35.6% K rate and a .333 BABIP. Calculating BABIP (46PA - 2HBP - 6BB - 16K - 4HR = 18 balls in play) and (10H - 4HR = 6 hits in play). I typically view the AFL as just experience with the expectation of high performance in the AFL, but without the expectation that high performance will carry into AA or higher. Poor performances at the AFL can be sample size or maybe a sign coaches are having them work on something in specific, but I think it's a lot more problematic for older prospects (24+) like most of the Twins represented here. Sisk, Featherstone, Funderburk, Bechtold and Helman are all 24-25 and they should be dominant in the AFL if they have what it takes to move ahead.
  5. bean5302
    Garver will be near $80-100MM if he plays the next two years healthy as he'll be in the conversation for best catcher in MLB and he'll be a free agent after 2023. The only thing which will hold him under $125MM is his age at a33 to start free agency due to the Twins mishandling him and unfair baseball control rules. Of course, Garver being healthy seems to have about the same likelihood as Buxton being healthy.
  6. bean5302
    It only matters if the disgruntled fans stop spending on the team and that loss of spending is greater than the increase in spending by the fans who bought Berrios jerseys etc. You can't please everybody.
  7. bean5302
    EXACTLY THIS. The Vikings are in the same boat. I really don't follow the NFL. Between gun charges, drug charges, assault charges, $120 tickets for nosebleed seats and the Vikings never really going all-in, I just got fed up with the lack of commitment to a championship caliber team. The Twins are right there as well with me. They don't want to win a championship, they want to play over .500 and hope they get lucky enough to win a division or make the playoffs. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/11/01/its-time-for-the-just-good-enough-vikings-to-say-enough/
  8. bean5302
    If the Twins trade Garver, I'd wager they'll look to add a decent veteran starting catcher in free agency. Jeffers and Rortvedt just didn't take advantage of their opportunities to prove they could be counted on as starters at the MLB level.
  9. bean5302
    Yep, at the time Jays fans felt like the team gave up too much. That feeling lasted for all of about 3 weeks. It was a steep price for the Blue Jays to have paid, but watching Martin ice over for a month and Woods-Richardson basically fail to pitch the rest of the year along with Berrios pitching very well for them and the close playoff chance made up for all of it. Even if Martin and Woods-Richardson do turn into something great, all the Blue Jays need is one World Series and none of it even matters.
  10. bean5302
    Not top of the rotation pitchers, that's for sure, and that's what the Twins need. Teams are so loathe to give up potential high end starters in AA or higher it might be tough to move Arraez for top 50 pitching without including another high upside arm from the Twins.
  11. bean5302
    Agreed with this take on "Go For It" The Blue Jays got some flak on this board for being out of their minds going in on the Berrios trade and they only missed the playoffs by 1 game. While the season ended in a disappointing fashion by just barely missing the playoffs, it was pretty clear Blue Jays fans didn't regret going for it.
  12. bean5302
    They didn't agree on incentives. The Twins were supposedly north of $100MM with incentives, but while Buxton was okay with the guaranteed portion, he wanted a different incentive package. No real details of the incentive package were ever disclosed. Increasing the base guaranteed wage from $11.4MM to $16.8MM and shortening the length to 5 years allowing Buxton to enter free agency at 33 (assuming year 1 of the contract replaces next year) wouldn't likely be laughed off.
  13. bean5302
    Adding a bunch of individuals together to get to the same value as a single player won't necessarily make the trades "even." A single player worth 65 is generally more valuable than a collection of players worth 65. To get a healthy Lopez, I think the Twins would need to do something like Arraez, Kirilloff and Canterino.
  14. bean5302
    Luis Arraez, as he is right now, is a second baseman due to lack of playing time at other positions, and even at 2B, he's SSS because the Twins had no place to play him consistently. His arm should play at SS and his range plays at 3B, but the combination of physical skills he has best suits him to 2B. Arraez has never been viewed as a SS, though it's clear he has the arm strength for the position, and he's technically faster than, say, Andrelton Simmons. Typically, Arraez's defensive metrics put him as essentially average, limited by range. On the other side of his game, Arraez's bat plays, but it's old school. Baseball in general is enamored with 3 outcome batters so Arraez doesn't fit the mold at all and he slumped pretty badly to end the season. That may have impacted his trade value. In regard to the oft injured status, Arraez has been advised by team physicians he can significantly improve his knee durability through strengthening his legs and lightening up, but it remains to be seen if he has the motivation. Baseballtradevalues has recently updated it's values and probably has Arraez at about the right spot. In the same area as Kirilloff, Polanco, Lewis and Martin. Not super elite, but definitely worth being the centerpiece of a major trade.
  15. bean5302
    Since Buxton agreed with 7 years and $80MM + incentives... 5 years and $84MM guaranteed seems pretty reasonable. Then again, the ruder and more abusive you get towards people on the internet, the stronger your point becomes and better you are as a person, right?
  16. bean5302
    I wonder how much of Kepler's seemingly stubborn hitting comes from the batting coaching and how much comes from his swing in general and how well it adapts to directing balls off the bat? Kepler certainly seems to be going the way of many failed Twins outfielders before him, trying to hit a 5 run homer at every plate appearance. That said, Kepler put up another 2 WAR season this year. In any case, something really needs to be done about those outrageous shifts deployed against him.
  17. bean5302
    It's based on DRS/Range Factor. DRS/Range Factor uses total put outs to determine how well a fielder performs, but it assumes players get he same number of opportunities to field balls. That seems pretty reasonable at a glance. The Twins use defensive shifts more than nearly any team in baseball, which puts fielders in position to have more opportunities to field balls than their peers playing the same position on other teams. Since all DRS/Range Factor really cares about is total outs recorded while assuming all fielders get the same number of chances, the shift artificially and sometimes dramatically inflates middle infielder defensive value. From a UZR perspective, Simmons was below average, which makes sense based on his average-ish range (slow speed but good reactions) and below average fielding rate. Simply put, Simmons' DRS/Range Factors look good because he got more chances due to the high level of shifting than many of his peers in the first place. Just the same way "Wins" once determined Cy Youngs, DRS/Range Factors are a very outdated and problematic metric now. Simmons is an average fielding shortstop in swift decline.
  18. bean5302
    I agree with the position on Simmons. Lots of booted balls, poor range. DRS/Range Factor isn't a valuable stat for infielders at all when it comes to teams who use the shift a lot (Twins).
  19. bean5302
    Should be interesting to see what the coach's philosophy is and how that philosophy plays out with the Twins' hitters.
  20. bean5302
    I'm happy with the responses and comments on the article as I don't believe anything stated effectively took away from my position. So I'd be happy if they read the comments, too.
  21. bean5302
    I can't disagree more strongly with this take as it's based entirely upon an emotional attachment. Simmons has posted below average error rates for 3 consecutive years now, his defense graded below average this year, continuing a massive downturn due in part to his speed vanishing and his increasingly clumsy glovework. Simmons' sprint speed and 90 foot splits have are now placing him well below MLB average and dramatically lower than typical shortstops. The average MLB shortstop? 28.0 ft/sec. Simmons? Declined from sub-standard peak of 27.5 to 26.2 (slower than Miguel Sano's 26.5 ft/sec). His contact rates with the bat have declined 5 out of his last 6 years from 89.1% to 84.6%, his power has declined 4 straight seasons from an ISO of .143 in 2017 to a career low .051 this year and he had 451 plate appearances this year. It's not a small sample size and the batted ball data supports the decline with declines in barrel rate, exit velocity, hard hit rates, line drive rates and corresponding decreases in expected batting average. Even his weak contact rates have increased. The metrics are absolutely across the board. His UZR/150 looks like this for the past 6 years: 18.1, 18.5, 19.5, 13.8, 4.0, -1.1. Simmons is toast. His career is over.
  22. bean5302
    In any case, Syndergaard being available is probably a 10% chance. The Mets are almost certainly going to make him a QO, and he's already on record as hoping he gets one because he wants to stay with the Mets. The Twins are going to be in an interesting position. They'll need to convince an Ace they're willing to spend to compete when they finished dead last in what is probably becoming a much stronger division in the future.
  23. bean5302
    The myth and legend of the hurt ace a team overspent on continues! I wrote a pretty lengthy article on the subject a couple months ago. Aces are good investments whereas typical dumpster dives and mid rotation starters have been poor investments for the Twins. Even if, in the unlikely case an Ace declines, they're still a mid rotation starter. Looking at the 9 ace contracts I identified since 2015, 80% have been decent, 70% have been good, and nearly 50% have been excellent deals. 8 of 9 had provided Ace level performance 4.0+ WAR in at least one season since their signing. The best part was that Ace's rebound from the unlikely event of an injury with only a 10% chance per year an Ace loses a season. Bottom line? The injury risk is overstated, the performance risk is overstated and the cost risk is overstated.
  24. bean5302
    A "work stoppage" is pretty much a non-factor for the first month. It's not until mid January that any real impact would be felt at all. If the work stoppage leads to a lock out and loss of games, it will be catastrophic for baseball, though I suspect owners and players today don't realize how devastating the 1994 strike was to the game. The service time issue is probably going to be the main arguing point for both sides. The proposal from the owners was straight out insulting when it came to service time. The owners proposed 100% team control until age 30 which is utterly ludicrous.
  25. bean5302
    I don't think it matters as much as I initially thought. When I looked at the surgical results and timetables, he likely would have missed a lot of next season. Seems to be a bit similar to a UCL recovery timeline because of the extra bracing needed at full workload. Also, it doesn't seem like the surgery is nearly as successful as UCL surgery.
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