bean5302

Tom Pohlad doesn't make personnel decisions. Are you advocating for firing Jeremy Zoll and changing his title from owner to: Tom Pohlad, President of Baseball Operations despite Pohlad specifically saying that's not something he's going to do because he's uncomfortable with it?

Probably more "Other Baseball" than Minnesota Twins talk, but if the Twins want a likely front line pitcher still, they can add Zac Gallen for much less. I don't see the payroll jumping to $130MM+ considering the Pohlad's messaging, and based on how Falvey made some questionable decisions with his budget again before being fired, it'd be awfully tough to work a $20MM+ pitcher into the rotation at this point. I actually tried to fit Gallen into my just recent blueprint, but it was a total house of cards situation.

Ride the bench here or play every day in Tampa. Which would you prefer? The Twins can provide Bell with plenty of incentive to accept a trade. Bell can waive the no-trade restriction, but the Twins cannot get back any player with more than a $50k contract value. Basically, the Twins can only get back PTBNL MiLB contract guys.

Sure, the Twins could have a whole bunch of players rebound or have a late year season Renaissance like Carlos Santana had for one season. It's just not likely. It's easy for me to take a look at each individual player, roll a couple Monopoly dice and hope double-digit totals. It's not far-fetched to see that happen a few times in 20+ rolls. But to never see any rolls below 5 or to see 10+ double-digit roll totals through the whole process is the concern people have.

Opening day payroll went from $150-130-140-110. The opening day payroll increased in 2025. The sell off dropped the season total payroll.

This is the ultimate TD writer's Derek Falvey = Alex Kirilloff piece. Any fan of Twins Daily knows Alex Kirilloff was destined to win the MVP award twice each season if it just wasn't for being injured. The writers conveniently ignore Kirilloff never had plus power, wouldn't take a walk to save his life and had no defensive value. He was basically later career Delmon Young. Derek Falvey has the same kind of cult following here. His trades often didn't pan out, his draft picks virtually never produced significant sustainable value for the team, and Falvey consistently squandered precious budget on low ceiling barely MLB caliber players in the interest of having mega-depth, a luxury on mid market teams. He was a bad GM who inherited an incredibly talented core and squandered it. Sure, he didn't have the luxury of a large market payroll, but ownership consistently ran payrolls by 30-50% higher than when Falvey started. Falvey inherited arguably the most talented, young core team in all of MLB in 2017 with just a $100M opening day payroll. Kyle Gibson, Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, and Miguel Sano were all solid every day players and contributors for several years. Their talent was largely wasted and traded away to prop up Falvey's failed pipelines. Falvey's team missed the playoffs in 2018, 2021, and 2022 before the REAL scapegoat for poor performance (the one year 2024 payroll dip). Not sure how the 2024 payroll dip caused a ripple in time to impact the missed playoff teams in previous seasons? Anyway, The Twins rebounded payroll to $140MM in 2025, and even at it's lowest opening day rate, it was still tied for the top payroll in the AL Central in 2024. Despite that, the Twins missed the playoffs again in 2024 and 2025. Falvey was absolutely setup for success. Even with sub-par ownership, he had all the tools to get it done.

With the Twins being late into the 2025-2026 offseason and having now fired Derek Falvey for failing to meet ownership's new direction, it will take creativity and aggressive moves to put a team with a high floor and a playoff caliber ceiling together. Using an all-in mentality with a tough salary cap, I'm trading away high end Twins talent for multi-year, established quality players, not dumpster diving. The Twins start off with an absolute blockbuster of a trade with the Washington Nationals moving Emmanuel Rodriguez, Brooks Lee, Taj Bradley and Dasan Hill to the Nationals to get a return of (SS) CJ Abrams and (LF) James Wood. That's two 3 WAR caliber players with modest salaries in early arbitration/pre-arb status. The losses to the farm hurt for sure, but if the Twins can't do it with payroll, they've got to do it with talent. Next, the Twins package Trevor Larnach and Ricardo Olivar to Tampa in return for Yandy Diaz. Tampa gets their always coveted salary relief, a passable DH now, and a catcher/outfield prospect in the high minors. Finally, the Twins package Hendry Mendez to sweeten the deal for a team to take on Josh Bell's contract in return for a PTBNL. With a little payroll room now the Twins sign Michael Kopech to a $7MM AAV contract, and bring back familiar face Danny Coloumbe to solidify the top of the bullpen. With plenty of depth left in AAA for filling the starter spots when injuries crop up, I project this team to be worth about 88 wins with a ceiling much higher if a couple rebound seasons happen for players like Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner. Plus, there should be a little juice left in the tank come trade deadline time if the GM needs to pick up some talent. C: Ryan Jeffers ($6.70M) 1B: Kody Clemens ($0.80M) 2B: Luke Keaschall ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($2.90M) SS: CJ Abrams ($4.20M) LF: James Wood ($0.80M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M) DH: Yandy Diaz ($9.00M) 4th OF: James Outman ($0.80M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.80M) Utility: Tristan Gray ($0.80M) Backup C: Victor Caratini ($7.0M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.75M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($6.20M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.30M) SP4: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M) SP5: Zebby Matthews ($0.80M) RP: Michael Kopech ($7.00M) RP: Taylor Rogers ($2.00M) RP: Danny Columbe ($3.50M) RP: Cole Sands ($1.10M) RP: Justin Topa ($1.00M) RP: Eric Orze ($0.80M) RP: Jackson Kowar ($0.80M) RP: Andrew Morris ($0.80M) POS: Carlos Correa Dead Money ($10.00M) Payroll is 2.09% over $110MM budget

You're in luck. He was a slightly below average RF in 2 of his seasons so far.

Well, while I dislike his results, as a fan I like the fact he has MLB experience since it gives me the opportunity to do some amatuer analysis on him. From a Stuff+ perspective, Kowar's problem is he throws his fastball too much. 60% of the time is way too much for an unimpressive pitch. The velocity is great, but the movement is sub-par, he doesn't get good extension so his velocity plays a lot lower than it is, and there is very little spin on it. He also tends to locate his fastball middle-middle too much. The changeup and slider are very good pitches, but he can't seem to locate the changeup. Not sure if the Twins can pick up on a repeating mechanical issue to get more consistency out of location of the pitch. There is quality to work with, but it needs revision. Getting better extension and improving mechanics for the changeup could help Kowar really be something. Sounds simple, but those are big changes.

Who among the Twins starters routinely faced TTO over the past 2 years (Twins)? Innings per game. SWR and Matthews are in the same boat as Festa over the past couple of years, and SWR especially had much more opportunity. I do think Matthews pitched to more hitters than Festa despite the lower innings per start count, but Matthews also puts a lot more guys on base than Festa. Ryan = 5.67 Lopez = 5.67 Ober = 5.60 Bradley = 5.22 SWR = 4.80 Festa = 4.70 Matthews = 4.68

Plouffe felt he could have done it with Royce Lewis' throwing issues as well. He was openly critical of the Twins' organization, coaches and management in regard to how they handled Lewis and how they were failing to help him address his throwing accuracy issues. We don't know what work Plouffe is doing with Wallner. Is Plouffe expecting Wallner to turn into a gold glove right fielder or does Plouffe think he can identify how Wallner can be a better hitter? If Plouffe's help does show substantial, tangible improvement, it's another black mark on Falvey.

Winokur needs to have a heck of a season to factor into the Twins' future plans at this point. Schobel looked outmatched at AAA in his brief time last year, which is highly concerning given he's 25 this year. He's been a little slow to move through the system, but here's hoping it was all trying too hard in his late season promotion. I believe he could be immediate depth at SS if he performs really well out of the gate this season.

The biggest help for Wallner is having somebody else in the lineup who can hit, too. Pitchers tried their best to pitch around Wallner last year since almost nobody else in the lineup was much of a threat, and it showed. Wallner's "situational" hitting has been harped on, but it's not like he had a lot of opportunities to be in a high leverage or RISP position. In the rare instances he was, it looks more like the BABIP monster ate his production up. I expect Wallner to have a bounce-back year, but a lot of his value is going to be decided on what position he plays, I expect. Hopefully, Plouffe is working with Wallner in the field.

Yeah, Ryan and Lopez are definitely the king of the road when it comes to 1-2 punches. Ranked 10th for fWAR projection this year among 1-2 starter combinations. Truly forces to be reckoned with. BOS = 9.5 DET = 8.8 PHI = 8.3 PIT = 7.7 ATL = 6.8 TOR = 6.8 TEX = 6.6 LAD = 6.5 KCR = 6.3 MIN = 6.3 The primary concern around Festa is his health. If he's returned to form, his stuff is just as apt to play as some other internal options, and if the writer is so concerned about actual results, Festa owns the 3rd best FIP of the entire group of proposed starters, and his ERA is dramatically above Matthews. ERA 3.50 - Ryan 3.69 - Lopez 4.11 - SWR 4.49 - Ober 4.59 - Bradley 5.12 - Festa 5.92 - Matthews 6.23 - Abel FIP 3.51 - Lopez 3.61 - Ryan 4.27 - Festa 4.30 - SWR 4.30 - Ober 4.41 - Matthews 4.42 - Bradley 5.11 - Abel Personally, I think the Twins should be trading Festa or other starters before destroying their value in the bullpen. If Festa starts the year off in AAA effectively, he's worth more as a trade chip than he'd likely be worth in short relief out of the 'pen. Converting legitimate starters into bullpen arms because the front office has failed to address its needs is not a sound strategy. It's wasteful.

Seems to be a mighty high bar you've got. Only 1 in 20-ish players will accumulate 20+ career WAR. Only about 1 in 100-ish players reach the HoF (those players who have sustained elite performances). I'm not sure if you're looking for performances after 2010 or players who were drafted/signed after 2010? Dozier, Kepler, Sano, Rosario, Polanco were all signed/drafted prior to 2010, but yeah, the 2nd round of Terry Ryan 2012-2016 draft classes wasn't great.

...and he's also said there is time left in the offseason. Remains to be seen if there's enough to make major changes. We could be seeing a move of Lopez, etc. Who knows?

Beef prices are up, thanks Obama! Pohalds! Falvey has scapegoated others historically. It's not reasonable to believe the Pohlad family had anything to do with staffing changes under Falvey. Falvey makes the call on managers, hitting coaches etc. The Pohlads have made some accountability moves recently which has been out of character for the franchise for decades. They're not scapegoating. They're finally doing their job and holding people accountable (at least a little.)

I didn't read that at all. Tom has stated the Twins will be competitive in 2026. Falvey didn't change the team up. I'll go ahead and build the roster that you say is impossible in the offseason blueprint and put it here.

No, we don't. Tom set the expections he wasn't a half-measures guy. Falvey employed half-measures. We're almost to pitchers/catchers reporting so Falvey got fired for not meeting expectations. Not sure if there's enough time left in the offseason to change directions or make bold moves or whatever. I do think it's unreasonable to expect the current roster to be competitive. Tom Pohlad has substantial experience as a CEO and being the head of businesses. I'm not sure where you're going with this? You think the owners are lottery winners who just bought the franchise out of the blue? Jeremy Zoll has 15 years of front office experience starting in 2011 with the Reds, then moving on to being a scouting coordinator with the Angels before becoming the assistant director of player development with the Dodgers (similar to Falvey's role before the Twins hired him). The Twins brought Zoll in as director of MiLB operations, promoting him to assistant GM in 2020, operating as an assistant GM for 5 years, replacing Thad Levine as general manager for 2025. What has Tom Pohlad done with the bullpen? He's the owner, not not the GM or president of baseball. If you're mad about the bullpen, that's on Falvey. Owner role = provide sufficient resources to field a team which can meet ownership's expectations for on the field performance. Determine overall business vision and objectives. Hold the front office accountable for following through with strategies that align with business vision and objectives. If it's not inside that scope, it's not Tom Pohlad's wheel house.

I'm not "team Tom" I'm team get Falvey the *(&^out of here. It's the team I've been on for several years. Falvey is now gone so the biggest problem with the Twins has been removed from the situation. I'm happy about that. This Twins team doesn't resemble the "no half-measures" type of owner Tom says he wants to be.

5 Worst #1 - Rogers & Rooker for Paddack and Pagan. Brent Rooker is a multiple time All Star and a highly productive right handed power bat the Twins have desperately been in need of for years. Not only did Falvey choose Kyle Garlick over Rooker, he went so far as to toss Rooker in to get him off the roster. It was a shocking misread of Rooker's talent for an organization. #2 - Carlos Correa 6yrs $200MM. Ignoring the findings of the Giants and Mets, Falvey pushed ahead to lock up Carlos Correa on a long term contract. It's turned into a disaster in no small part due to foot issues, but team chemistry was also impacted. #3 - Josh Donaldson. 4yrs $96MM brought former MVP Donaldson to the Twins and signaled to the rest of the league the Twins weren't bottom feeders going forward; however, it was a bad contract. This would clearly have been #1 had Falvey not been able to get out from under the terrible signing in the nick of time, flipping Donaldson, and IKF for Sanchez and Urshela. #4 - Brian Dozier for peanuts. Dozier was coming off three 5 WAR seasons in the past 4 years, and Falvey needed to move him. As has been the pattern, Falvey overplayed his hand and kept Dozier for his age 31 season, finally trading him for peanuts at the 2018 trade deadline. This has been a pattern for Falvey we've seen over and over again, this was just the most drastic negative impact on the return. I don't know. There are just so many relatively minor items which kind of fit into that mold of poor decisions. From Andrelton Simmons to a half dozen other deadline moves.

Based on 4 of 5 years in a row of not making the playoffs Tom Pohlad had a pretty good reason to believe Falvey wasn't the guy. Beyond that, Falvey's teams only 1 full season when any of his teams deserved a playoff appearance in 9 years (2019). It's not like Falvey should have still been here, anyway. It's mind boggling Falvey still had a job, actually. Making his life difficult? Why? For what possible reason would it have been in Tom's best interest to pick a fight with the head of the front office who has a good relationship with Tom's bosses and other board members? Falvey had the largest budget of any team in the AL Central and missed the playoffs 4 of 5 seasons while his teams one a single Wild Card playoff series in 9 years. He'd drafted and developed 0 players to represent the Twins in 9 years. The 1 multiple time All Star he drafted, he traded as an after thought to keep Kyle Garlick on the roster. Falvey was a bad GM. It's open to debate whether or not he was terrible at his job, but it's not open on whether or not he was bad. Falvey got fired for incompetence, plain and simple. He did not "resign," he got fired. He did not read the writing on the wall and choose to step away. He got canned. You think Falvey walked from a guaranteed, multi-million dollar payday without an exit plan or new role lined up because his boss was being mean? Pohlad set the bar. Here's our strategy. Falvey failed to adapt and ran things business as usual. You know what you have to do when the owner says "here's our strategy"? You follow it. Falvey couldn't do it. Whether it was ego or lack of ability, Falvey didn't operate within the lines of the new strategy and he got fired for it. Falvey could have adapted and stuck around, instead he challenged the boss and lost.

#1 - Joe Ryan trade. There's no real room to debate this as far as I'm concerned. 11.3 fWAR so far, and probably + more fWAR lifetime for about 0.5 fWAR Tampa received. It's crazy lopsided. #2 - Nelson Cruz signing. Cruz delivered huge value for his reserved paycheck leading the only full season Twins team that deserved a playoff appearance during Derek Falvey's tenure in 2019, and his cheap option allowed him to return for the shortened 2020 campaign where the Twins again looked like a contender. Later, he was flipped for the best trade in recent Twins history. Needed to edit this list. (edited, new #3) Josh Donaldson & IKF to Yankees for Urshela and Sanchez. As a result of going through the worst moves, the Donaldson trade is clearly moving way, way up. Donaldson wasn't a disaster for the Twins, but it certainly turned into an utter cluster shortly thereafter with the Yankees. Explosvie racial context controversy, terrible play and injury wiping out his career reputation all while eating up $23MM per year. Meanwhile, Urshela proved a valuable piece at 3B for the Twins, and Sanchez averted disaster by filling in for Jeffers at catcher. #4 (prev #3) - Jake Odorizzi trade. Acquiring Jake Odorizzi for PTBNL category prospect, Palacios turned into a huge boost for the Twins. Odorizzi was soid enough in 2018, but he put up legitimate front of the rotation arm results in 2019 with 4.5 fWAR (behind only Sonny Gray since Johan Santana) while doing it for dirt cheap. #5 (prev 4) - Sonny Gray trade. While the Twins gave up Chase Petty, the 2023 team doesn't make the playoffs and certainly wasn't a threat to advance without Gray. The only legitimate Ace pitcher the Twins have seen trot out to the mound since Johan Santana. #6 (prev 5) - Polanco/Kepler extensions. Just before the 2019 seasons, the Twins got ahead of Kepler and Polanco's future with some aggressively team friendly contracts which included options into free agency years. Both players earned peanuts relative to what they would have made and it provided a stable, cost controlled core for Falvey to try and build around.

I feel like we might be on really different conversations? From my perspective, Tom took over the Twins from not only a spokeman point of view, but as a controller. I'm sure he was well aware of how the Twins had been previously run, and it seems more than reasonable to conclude Tom had been vocal about how he felt the franchise should be run. Tom wasn't listed as a front office employee or stakeholder in the Twins. He took over the role, and I've never seen a CEO-type executive come into an organization (other than wack job Elon Musk) and immediately make sweeping changes without first coming to up to speed on operations and strategy in a much more detailed level. It's not reasonable to think Tom was deeply familiar with the operations and baseball side when he was a CEO of a different company. The Twins are very much a flagship company for the Pohlad family. Now, in regard to what needed to happen, I think it's only fair to get a feel for the leadership and strategy of a team in a more detailed fashion, then set the goals and direction of the company, and then ask leadership for their strategy to accomplish those goals. The Twins were clearly committed to Falvey until Tom stepped in, and order to obtain buy in from the real owners, you need a little time before you fire their best buddies in the organization. Less than two months is a very fast decision making time frame. In fact, based on reports, Tom had already moved on from Falvey within a single month because they discussed exit strategies for 2 weeks. I think it's more than clear Tom didn't believe Falvey was the guy for the job, but was tasked with proving it to Jim, Bill and Bob. Falvey failed to meet the goals laid out with the change in direction Tom asked for, apparently. It took Tom 1 month to get buy in and get the fiscal owners to eat the remainder of Falvey's contract to get him out of his position. That's fast.

A totally new ownership group probably would have fired Falvey immediately, but they would have already been in negotiations with new prospective GMs. Tom took over in December and less than 2mo later he had seen enough. It was a fair probationary period where Falvey needed to show he could follow the change in direction. Instead, Falvey ran things the same as he always had.