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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I can't agree with your opinion here. Lynn and Morrison have serious issues for any team to consider. Quite frankly, I see Lynn as a potential upside player, but not a guy I'd want on a long term contract. Lynn with either have a big bounce back or be a back end rotation arm for another year or two before he's out of baseball. Morrison is replacement level. Sorry. He's got absolutely no track record of anything other than 1/2 of last year. A guy comes out of nowhere at age 30 and his game completely changes? Doesn't happen. Morrison slashed .231/.333/.452 OPS .786 in the second half last year (right around his career average). The free agent tracker shows a lot of significant to very large contracts were given to players whose likelihood of delivering long term value is dubious at best http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/ Darvish, Martinez and Hosmer are all arguably 3 WAR players with 5+ year, nine figure contracts. Each of them have major arguments against their value and they were the absolute cream of the crop of free agents. Dozier and Blackmon are in an utterly different league.
  2. bean5302
    1. Blackmon is the fan favorite (over Arenado) so there is value retaining him. 2. The Rockies need some stability in the outfield so there's organizational need. 3. Blackmon is the 14th ranked player in WAR over the past two seasons (he's expensive) 4. The Rockies easily have payroll capacity, despite the cheapskate owners. There is no evidence of re-valuing of free agents happening. Just evidence mediocre to below average free agents aren't going to get massive contracts just because they're the best free agents on the market. 1. Brian Dozier is among many other fan favorites. 2. The Twins do not have a need for 2B depth. 3. Dozier is the 13th ranked player in WAR over the past two years (he's be expensive) 4. The Twins do not have the payroll capacity to keep potential up and coming superstars like Buxton and Berrios along with aging, long contract, high priced veterans. Dozier is going to command a $100M+ contract if he puts up another year like his last two. It's going to be a 5+ (probably 5) year deal at an AAV of more than $20M. There just isn't an obvious need to keep Dozier and there are better places for the Twins to spend their money which is why the Twins haven't wasted their time or Dozier's time on an extension. Dozier is not going to be in a Minnesota Twins uniform next year barring some Twilight Zone stuff.
  3. bean5302
    Berrios looked like an ace. There's not much more you can say about it.
  4. bean5302
    Re: Buntgate. Did the Twins think the "2B" was or would be changed to an error which would put the no-hitter back into play? The bottom line is you can't give your opponents an absolutely obvious hit and then complain when they take it.
  5. bean5302
    Rosario has a hit tool which is just insane and he began to mature as a hitter last year. As an article said, he's learning what he should hit vs. what he can hit. Rosario kind of reminds me of somewhat more athletic Vladimir Guerrero, but with a bit less power. If Rosario can continue to build on his discipline, he could have a great career.
  6. bean5302
    Gibson has seemingly had talent beyond his results since his TJ, seemingly 100 years ago, and every year people expect this is the year Gibson figures it out. He's no longer a spring chicken (he's 30) and he's been trying to sort of reinvent himself quite a bit over the past few years. I think it's reasonable to temper expectations given that Gibson is probably a somewhat better version of Nick Blackburn. Throwing 59 of 102 pitches for strikes and working from behind most of the game will usually result in you getting shellac'd so the results don't necessarily line up with the actual performance. I'm not complaining that the Orioles put up a bunch of zeros against the Twins while Gibson was on the mound, but I just don't think this was some sort of epiphany for Kyle.
  7. bean5302
    I think the Twins are in the very same mode they've been in for most of the past 2 decades. Be competitive, but very risk averse. This is a team which is solidly in the mid-market arena from a revenue potential standpoint, but with the risk aversion a small market team exhibits. I think the Twins' general approach has been, try to field a competitive team and hope some magic happens, and I think the mentality is driven by ownership far more than the front office. Sustained "competitive" teams are possible for a mid-market club. Sustained World Series contenders is not.
  8. bean5302
    A1 = 5.55 A2 = Kind of. There were 14 qualified starters with ERA's of 4.49+ last year. It's not that starters posting 4.50 ERAs are rare. It's that pitchers who post those ERAs for consecutive years are rare. A guy can have a bad season driven by luck. BABIP, a couple of his solo shots wind up being grand slams instead... those make big differences in ERA. Teams look to shed pitchers who pitch at that 4.25+ level because they make it awfully hard to win games. 6 innings and 3ER (4.50 ERA) is treated as a quality start, but it's really not. Your team will probably allow at least one more ER over the last 3 innings of the game (ERA 3.00) which means your team needs to score 5 runs to win. The probability of scoring 5 runs in a game is far lower than 4 runs. Actually, that's the very basis of the "Ace" for the playoffs discussion. An Ace is expected to give you 7 innings at 2 ER. A #3 will give you 7 innings at 3 ER, which is still a solid start, but the expectations of winning are probably 80% in favor of the Ace's team at that point.
  9. bean5302
    I was under the impression Darvishes escalators were cy young awards. If he wins 2 cy Young’s, the $150M will almost certainly be money well spent. It’s possible Darvish melts down. I don’t think he will. I think he’s ripe for a really nice few years. I’m guessing 2-3 years as an ace, plus 2-3 years as a #2 and 0-2 years as a #3 would be completely reasonable. That’s be worth it.
  10. bean5302
    I can understand the desire to be positive and optimistic, but I am just totally unimpressed with this off-season. The Twins needed an ace, not 12 number 3s. It feels like the ghost of Terry Ryan. Darvish went CHEAP and Darvish is what the Twins needed. Every season, the Twins spend about $35-40M on additional salary for rotation arms. This has been the case since, I think, 2013. Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia, Ricky Nolasco/Hector Santiago, Ervin Santana and now Lance Lynn. Odorizzi was a big jump in payroll as well. It doesn't matter to me if the Twins have new dumpster fires eating the $35M in salary up every two years. It matters to me the Twins could have spent the money more efficiently. In any case, this year's probable rotation had a simple mean 4.87 FIP (4.68 when Hughes is replaced by Santana) which would keep them at an identical rank of 23rd of 30 teams (or 22nd of 30 teams) based on last year. Berrios = 3.84 Lynn = 4.82 Odorizzi = 5.43 Gibson = 4.85 Hughes = 5.43 Santana = 4.46 FIP There's always the chance multiple arms take a step forward and Santana comes back without regression to his mediocre to poor FIPs, but I've long since learned if, if, if, and if happens isn't a great scenario for trying to predict your teams playoff or World Series potential.
  11. bean5302
    MLB has shown an open willingness to punish players without the type of evidence necessary to prove accusations in a legal setting before, either probable cause or beyond a reasonable doubt. MLB conducted over 20 interviews and given the current political climate, you can bet they didn’t take their decision lightly. There’s absolutely no reason to doubt the quality or integrity of the MLB investigation. MLB didn’t say “Sano’s accuser was full of ****” or something of that nature. The investigation was almost certainly very thorough, but it was obviously unable to uncover any solid evidence Sano acted inappropriately. This was never going to be about a “sexual assault” as police would have been handling that investigation. It’s not MLBs duty to investigate crimes. It’s MLBs duty to investigate personal conduct and determine whether or not a player has violated personal conduct rules, which isn’t limited in scope to crimes. There just wasn’t significant evidence OR perhaps there wasn’t significant interest from the accuser to pursue punishment. We don’t know, and we never will. It would be nice if people had a shred of respect for the hard work of MLB investigators and the process, though.
  12. bean5302
    Escobar's career UZR/150 at SS is +0.3 and was +3.5 last year. Aside from a poor 2016, Escobar has never been a below average shortstop in 5 other seasons. His RF/9 has also traditionally graded out as average to better than league average at SS.
  13. bean5302
    Rosario put on weight and lost speed. 2016 = 28.4, 2017 = 27.7. That's a pretty big drop off in sprint speed. Kepler 2016 = 28.6 ft/sec 2017 = 28.2 ft/sec
  14. bean5302
    Kepler had only a 40 point OPS spread between RH and LH pitchers for his last two full seasons in the minors, but lefties have definitely owned him at the MLB level. His BABIP would get a lot of help if he stopped popping the ball up as much, and with Kepler's eye at the plate, it's something I think he could work on with learning which pitches lead him to pop the ball up. Kepler still reminds me of a somewhat less talented version of Joe Mauer at the plate, but Kepler may wind up delivering more pop, which will be necessary to remain a starter at a non-premium defensive position.
  15. bean5302
    This is exactly what I'm talking about... a19 - 8 PA, .600 BABIP a24 - 177 PA, .391 BABIP a25 - 22 PA, .357 BABIP a25 - 195 PA, .389 BABIP (here's where he stops being a legit prospect and nearly loses rookie status) a26 - 37 PA, .267 BABIP a27 - 44 PA, .308 BABIP Career MLB 517 PA, .276 BABIP, driven down by his very high pop-up rate. His AAA BABIP is inflated. His last two seasons at AAA, in admitted very small sample sizes, have been similar to his MLB BABIP and Adrianza has a batting average more similar to his MLB career line as a result. It seems unreasonable to look at his AAA stats without a large dose of skepticism, especially given his inability to impress at other MiLB levels and his terrible hitting at the MLB level. In regard to the criticism of Escobar's abilities at SS, he's got a career 0.3 UZR/150 line in 2,363 innings, largely hurt only by a rough 2016. Escobar was billed as a slick fielding SS with the potential his bat could play with a little time. His bat now plays, and while he doesn't have the full speed and range he did a couple years ago, but he's got what it takes to put together an above average fielding (not great or elite) season at SS if the Twins decide to let him. Some links with scouting information and expectations for Escobar. http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/eduardo-escobar/ https://www.minnpost.com/sports/2015/09/eduardo-escobar-can-be-twins-shortstop-solution-if-they-let-him https://minnesota.sbnation.com/minnesota-twins/2012/7/28/3199423/francisco-liriano-minnesota-twins-trade-chicago-white-sox-eduardo-escobar In summary, I don't believe you've done much research on the subject and maybe formed some opinions based on what you've heard people say off the cuff. I could be mistaken, but I don't find anything to suggest your opinion on either subject is particularly well anchored.
  16. bean5302
    Adrianza can not and will not hit. He's a utility infielder until he loses a step. He has a career wRC+ of 76 and has never even flashed an upside bat at the MLB level. His best stint, ever, was a 20 plate appearance rookie cup of coffee in 2013 where he registered a wRC+ of 100. His AAA numbers are incredibly easy to ignore. His age and far too high BABIP inflated the numbers. The idea Adrianza can or will turn a corner is just random player affection. Adrianza does bring a potentially very good glove. How good? Tough to say as he's only had 500 career MLB innings at short stop and his fielding percentage is lower than Escobar's. In regard to Escobar, he's an above average fielding short stop, and I don't get why people continue to lose sight of this. It's practically conspiracy level at this point, haha. The Twins haven't disliked Escobar's glove at SS, they've liked his utility everywhere else as they've used him as defensive duct tape to hold the roster together as needed. If Escobar had been used as a shortstop instead of everything and the kitchen sink, I think it's likely he would be looking forward to a big pay day in 2019 already. In summary, there is no way in hell Adrianza pushes or challenges Escobar at shortstop. The two players are in entirely different leagues. Adrianza is a utility AAAA infielder who's all glove and can serve as a defensive replacement or an occasional breather. Escobar is a potential 3 WAR starting MLB shortstop. Whether Escobar ends up playing shortstop seems more likely to rely upon Sano's potential suspension.
  17. bean5302
    Sano is heavier, shorter and arguably slower than Kennys Vargas. I'm not joking or exaggerating. Statcast's 2017 sprint speed has Sano at 26.9mph and Vargas at 26.6mph. Vargas has dropped weight and worked on his conditioning. Sano has gained and not been working out. Would anybody here suggest moving Kennys Vargas to 3B? I've never seen Vargas throw so I don't know as Vargas has a cannon arm or anything, but lets be realistic of Sano's potential to play a full season at 3B without dropping 50lbs regardless of whether or not a fan watching a video thinks Sano looks good or is hiding his weight well.
  18. bean5302
    Robinson Cano signed with the Mariners for 10 years and $240M at age 31 going in to 2014, but Cano did have a bit more ceiling and a better track record. Dozier isn't going to get close to that, but it's hard to argue Dozier isn't a premier player. 2B hasn't been a high demand spot, but Dozier is the second best 2B in MLB over the past 3 years, and he gives a 2.5 WAR upgrade over other "good" 2B options. That's a hell of a lot. I'd be surprised if Dozier didn't command a 3-5 year contract at $75-100M.
  19. bean5302
    There is no collusion. You have a bunch of agents thirsty for their next paycheck, but not a great deal of talent to sell. Agents have become accustomed to mega deals for the top free agents, but this year's talent pool was dry. Agents were still selling mediocre JAG players as if they were cornerstones for playoff teams for the next 5 years. Case in point. Mike Moustakas. A mediocre player. Solid defender, but with only one really great year in 2015. He's a 2 WAR player. Estimates ranged up to $100M for him, and Boras wanted 6-7 years and up to $125M if I remember. The guys this year... they're just not very good and they're asking for elite money because even though they're not that great, they're the best available.
  20. bean5302
    Sano isn't the 3rd baseman of the future unless something dramatic happens. Escobar isn't the 3rd baseman of the future. Love him, but not at 3rd with his bat. Gordon at SS is superior to Polanco at SS. Polanco has some potential to replace a lot of Dozier's bat and add superior defense at 2B There isn't anybody in MiLB who is an obvious solution for 3rd base n the next year or two. Dozier's going to decline. He keeps defying all logic, but for the next few years, I could see him compensating for a bit of a weaker arm with superior range at 3rd base and his bat would play there. Mauer probably isn't the solution at 3rd. His cannon arm is wasted at 1B, but his speed is on the decline and asking him to just learn a completely new, and this time more difficult, position seems like a tall order. Maybe the Twins are just in the position where there are too many pieces moving to make a big commitment to Dozier.
  21. bean5302
    Other costs include operating facilities, front office employees, scouting, minor league teams, marketing, draft bonuses, and a huge host of other operational expenses. Pohlad indicated he said from a cash flow perspective, the Twins would be lucky to break even in 2017. Forbes reported they think Operating Income (essentially positive cash flow) was $30M last year. That said, profitability from the franchises has a lot more to do with franchise value as businesses NEVER report profits and losses based solely on cash flow. P&L is based on growth of value combined with cash flow. For the Twins, Forbes estimated a $115M increase in value and a $30M operating income for a total profit of $145M for 2017. In regard to the Twins' potential revenue, a better product on the field makes an immense impact on revnue. The Royals had a revenue of $161M in 2012. Then, as the team began to perform, revenue grew, and after their World Series appearance in 2014 it skyrocketed from $178M to $231M in 2015, then to $273M in 2016. Yes, the ROYALS had significantly higher revenues than the Twins. What did the Royals do with that revenue? They reinvested it to grow the fan base and revenue pool. The Twins have not been willing to do that, instead being more focused on ensuring cash flow stability and positive operating income.
  22. bean5302
    I'm awfully confused as to why Joe's concussion from 5 seasons ago has any relevance today or why anybody is still really talking about it. You know, aside from the disappointment at the potential loss of an obvious first ballot HoF career.
  23. bean5302
    My point is about how expensive it would be to lock Buxton up long term including securing multiple free agency years right now. I don't think the Twins risk much by letting Buxton play another full season as a "prove it" campaign. because I don't think Buxton's agent would want Byron to accept a low ball offer like Span took.
  24. bean5302
    The Twins have run under 48% opening day payroll for the past decade except one season. Revenue vs. Opening Day Payroll. 2009 - $162M vs. $66M = 41% 2010 - $213M vs. $97M = 46% 2011 - $213M vs. $113M = 53% 2012 - $214M vs. $94M = 44% 2013 - $221M vs. $76M = 34% 2014 - $223M vs. $86M = 39% 2015 - $240M vs. $109M = 45% 2016 - $249M vs. $108M = 43% 2017 - $249M vs. $108M = 43% 2018 - $249M? vs. $118M = 47% Revenue from: https://www.statista.com/statistics/196669/revenue-of-the-minnesota-twins-since-2006/ and https://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/ Payroll from: http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm#2016_payroll At this point, with this owner, I think it's unreasonable to expect the Twins to approached the expected target for MLB team expenditures.
  25. bean5302
    Aside from Buxton's arbitration eligible years, I don't see any reasonable arguments behind the Twins trying to buy out free agent years from Buxton. Buxton will hit free agency at age 28 as things stand. He'll be starting his absolute prime and earlier than 30. If Buxton manages to take the step forward his ceiling suggests he could, he's going to be one of the, if not the, highest paid player in baseball. Think 8-10 years and $360-400 million for his contract. Buying out a couple years of his free agency until age 30 would potentially depress his hypothetical contract a lot, and Buxton and his agent know that so it's going to cost the Twins a LOT. So if the Twins want to pay $20-25M per year for a couple years, they could probably get it done. So for next year assume 3 years arbitration at an average of $15M per year, plus 2 years at $25M and you could probably sign Buxton for 5 more years at a cost of $95M-ish. For a player that has 1/2 a season of eye opening performance, I think that's a crazy risk.
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