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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Varland was always sketchy for effectively holding down a rotation spot. There's a reason he was moved to the bullpen, and the Statcast numbers on Varland were clear. None of his stuff was great. It was adequate for a reliever, but with some reasonable decline moving into the rotation, there should have been concerns. Varland's 4 seamer isn't moving quite as well as last year, and it's been destroyed. I think there's reason to expect a fair amount of rebound, though. When it comes to Woods-Richardson, he's been better than anybody expected this year. The stuff was always potentially there, but the repetition/mechanics/consistency of his delivery was not. Like Varland being moved to the bullpen, there was a reason the Twins targeted SWR in the Berrios exchange. SWR was a legitimate mid-rotation arm prospect so if he's found his groove, I could definitely see him pushing Varland back to the bullpen permanently.
  2. bean5302
    Larnach is just good enough to hold down a spot on a roster for a non-competitive team. He wouldn't clear waivers if the Twins DFA'd him, but he's certainly not going to be a starter on a competitive team. He's not a prospect. He's a LH Kyle Garlick type. I like everything I've heard about Larnach as a hard worker, but he just can't identify breaking and offspeed stuff at the MLB level. I think about it sometimes, how incredibly frustrating it must be. I had a friend who wanted to be an electrical engineer. Really smart guy, absolutely gave 100% on his studies, but he hit a wall in math. He just couldn't keep up with Calc IV and above. It was pretty gut wrenching to watch, and he eventually switched majors to BCIS and Management. I've never had to deal with something like that. It must be 100x worse for a guy like Larnach who is sooooo close, but there's just one item he can't adjust. McCusker reminds me a little of Matt Wallner's profile. Now at AA, McCusker did start taking walks, but I think he's a much longer shot than Wallner since McCusker is 26. I suppose he's a fun dark horse to keep an eye on for a while!
  3. bean5302
    Catching up to the fastball isn't Buxton's only problem. He's been hyper aggressive as well, swinging at 38% of pitches outside the zone and taking 1 measly walk in 50 plate appearances. He's not going to get the best pitches to hit if he keeps swinging at junk. I've never been a fan of Buxton's as a premier player. He's a great full season 5-6 WAR player (which he never makes it a full season), but there have always been major holes in his game. His power heavy approach limits his potential value on the basepaths and his batted ball profile along with his poor walk rates really limits his overall value at the plate. High power, low BB profiles will always be very streaky, like @Bigfork Twins Guy alludes to. It's only 50 PA (83 including Spring Training), but if you include Spring Training, it's clear Buxton was seeing the ball well enough against more limited competition. Buxton's been around long enough to believe he'll come out of the slump soon enough. Wallner is the one I think needs to go to AAA. I'm a huge fan and I believe Wallner's game will play well at MLB, but he's clearly lost every bit of confidence he had, and I think he's let a few bad calls by the umps get into his head. He needs a reset, and a lesson. Keep your head in the game or somebody else will be happy to take your spot.
  4. bean5302
    They actively made the team worse? Falvey did that, not the ownership. Falvey had a budget. $100 for groceries and he spent $95 on scratch offs. The fans didn't show in 2022 or 2023, either when ownership brought in huge free agents and approved trades to acquire front line pitching. How many games did you attend the last two years when the Twins were over $150MM in payroll?
  5. bean5302
    Honestly, the big payroll guy the Twins need the most is Pablo Lopez by a mile
  6. bean5302
    Attendance has become a real problem.
  7. bean5302
    I'm a huge Wallner fan, but he looks like he's totally lost out there. The 2nd inning strikeout was BS. Called 3rd strike was way low. In the bottom of the 5th, Wallner was just a statue taking a pitch right down the middle for strike 3. Ump missed a ball called a strike inside on the 2nd pitch on Wallner again in the 7th. Even though he's getting the shaft seemingly a solid couple times a game, he can't be letting strike three sail by in the dead center of the plate.
  8. bean5302
    Yep. Spring Training stats don't matter. Just as Margo. He went .091/.106/.091 in 47 plate appearances this Spring Training. You seemed to be pretty happy he's been in the lineup in another thread.
  9. bean5302
    What rookies? Austin Martin is literally the only position player on the active roster who hasn't lost rookie status.
  10. bean5302
    I keep up with Berrios throughout the season. He's long past being outside the Twins' original control at this point, but I'm glad to see him rebounding from that awful first full year he had in Toronto. I was never on board with the Berrios is an ace! crowd here, but I always appreciated him for being so solid. I'm sure Toronto is happy they made that contract to him.
  11. bean5302
    Bullpen can't save a team when they enter the game in the hole with no additional runs from the bats. Can't wait to see who all draws the long straws out of Baldelli's cup to bat tonight. Baldelli should probably draw lottery numbers. Just like the Twins lineup, no idea who's up to bat and what position they play next!
  12. bean5302
    AL Central Ranks: Starters KCR 10 GS, 62.0 IP, 1.60 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 3.16 xFIP = 1.6 fWAR CLE 10 GS, 50.0 IP, 2.70 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 3.67 xFIP = 1.1 fWAR CHW 10 GS, 51.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 4.40 xFIP = 0.9 fWAR DET 10 GS, 53.1 IP, 4.89 ERA, 4.85 FIP, 4.43 xFIP = 0.3 fWAR MIN 8 GS, 38.1 IP, 5.17 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 4.03 xFIP = 0.3 fWAR Relievers CLE 38.0 IP, 1.18 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 3.87 xFIP = 0.6 fWAR DET 39.0 IP, 1.38 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 3.91 xFIP = 0.3 fWAR MIN 31.2 IP, 1.71 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 3.70 xFIP = 0.1 fWAR KCR 27.0 IP, 4.67 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 5.45 xFIP = 0.1 fWAR CHW 33.1 IP, 4.86 ERA, 5.82 FIP, 4.94 xFIP = (0.5) fWAR Batting CLE .268/.329/.402 .731 OPS wRC+ 115 = 2.0 fWAR KCR .245/.303/.432 .735 OPS wRC+ 107 = 2.1 fWAR DET .214/.290/.334 .624 OPS wRC+ 83 = 0.8 fWAR MIN .181/.289/.288 .577 OPS wRC+ 74 = 0.3 fWAR CHW .190/.267/.303 .570 OPS wRC+ 68 = (0.3) fWAR
  13. bean5302
    While the direct cause/effect relationship between UCL tears and velocity hasn't been proven, the direct relationship between velocity and stress on the arm and elbow have been proven. There are so many variables out there it's hard to get enough concrete, pure, data. How many 6'0" tall pitchers with similar builds and 93mph fastballs vs. 94mph fastballs are out there to compare? It's funny how much quality research has gone into this vs. how quickly we see half-hearted studies and datasets published and referred to as gospel on other stuff (like salt intake, alcohol or coffee consumption) The question which will eventually be answered by MLB teams is in regard to value. Performance vs. velocity vs. durability. Does that 1mph increase cost you 1 start per year, 5 starts per year or 10 starts per year. How much performance did you gain for how much time did you lose? 99mph 20 starts, 2.80 ERA, 115 innings = ??? WAR 97mph 25 starts, 3.00 ERA, 150 innings = ??? WAR 95mph 28 starts, 3.20 ERA, 168 innings = ??? WAR 93mph 32 starts, 3.40 ERA, 200 innings = ??? WAR
  14. bean5302
    As DH: 2024 - Twins wRC+ 74 (28th) 2023 - Twins wRC+ 111 (11th) 2022 - Twins wRC+ 120 (6th)
  15. bean5302
    Margot will absolutely, 100%, not stay there. He's a below average hitter. Always has been, and he's not getting any younger. Seeing Margot in the lineup all the time has been exceptionally frustrating for me. The results have been there, but that's been luck, not methodology.
  16. bean5302
    Julien is an easy out if the pitcher can truly hit their spots. Julien knows it, and the pitchers know it. Julien's K rate was the same as Wallner's last year because Julien doesn't swing at pitches he knows will turn into whiffs or weak popups and grounders that are guaranteed outs. He's better off hoping it gets called a ball. The problem for pitchers is if they're off by a couple inches into the zone, Julien will crush it, and if they're off a couple inches outside, it's a guaranteed ball and Julien will take the walk. Julien's methodology is unique and on the edge of viability, but it was very successful last year. There's a good chance it will continue to be successful because it's just a game of inches, and Julien will get opportunities since pitchers are not perfect.
  17. bean5302
    Another empty stadium experience last night. It wasn't "great" weather, but I've been to games where it's been quite a bit worse. Vendor staff were getting big cuts in the 4th inning. I think the fans who were there were pretty engaged though. There was some heart. Those extremely expensive to produce Twins fridge magnets were gone by the time I got to the game at start time. Can't be handing those $0.50 giveaways out to just anybody who buys a ticket, you know. No good TV contract. No fans in the seats despite population density increasing in the area. Giveaway fails. Weak season ticket holder benefits. Pre/post game entertainment options around the stadium struggling. Skyrocketing parking prices and transportation issues rising. The struggles in fan engagement are impacting the payroll and player quality on the team. Dave St. Peter is increasingly looking like the weakest link in the organization to me. Walking a couple blocks from the stadium can get you street event parking at $3.00/hr. Worked out well for me!
  18. bean5302
    Dobnak is not on the 26 man roster and didn't pitch at all last night. :D
  19. bean5302
    Pitch clock not relevant based on current study data. Velocity is absolutely proven to be the key factor in regard to elbow stress. Biomechanical studies have proven it. There is still "sticky stuff." Rosin and sweat = very sticky. Tighter grips on the baseball does increase forearm stress. Aaron Nola got 7 years and $172MM. Yoshinobu Yamamoto got 12 years and $325MM. There were a group of free agents this year who really overplayed their hands, IMHO. All that said, find me the high school pitchers throwing 4-5 pitches these days that teams could draft if they wanted to. The standard starting pitching prospect these days has 3 pitches. The emphasis on developing pitchers even down into high school has been velocity to get drafted, velocity to succeed later. It used to be more focused on more quality pitches to keep hitters off balance, more command, control and deception to succeed.
  20. bean5302
    Are you sure the computer is right down to the millimeter? Even down to a centimeter? You'd expect calls at the very edges of the zone to get closer and closer to 50/50, As you see here, the missed strikes (called balls) were within millimeters of being a true ball as recorded by the equipment. If the equipment is off by 1 cm (totally believable) then those were good calls. The low-center "ball" call was also within millimeters of being a true ball as recorded by the equipment. Miller did a really lousy job, but I don't have a problem with 3 of those balls as I don't think equipment used would be any more accurate.
  21. bean5302
    I hope the Twins don't deploy Miranda the way they deployed Martin. I'd like to see Miranda getting every day playing time. It'll be interesting to see how the Twins go about it.
  22. bean5302
    Baseball is entertainment. Spreadsheets are not entertaining to most people. Computers are not entertaining to most people. Sports fans love to blame the referees and umpires, and bad calls are especially engaging with the audience. A computer determining borderline calls is a disaster in terms of fan engagement. The only time umpires would be a problem would be if a team consistently was victimized by bad calls throughout a a full season. Also... how many of you know the names "Joe West" and "Angel Hernandez"? That's fan engagement, even if you think it's for the wrong reason. I would be for a challenge similar to the minors, but no need to announce it and the ball/strike call should be instant. The ump should just have a button to press and the call gets spoken to him. Walk off to the side a tick, then make the ball or strike call from the side of the plate. All the fans will pick up and know what's going on quickly. Say what you will about Manfred, but almost every rule change he's made over the past couple years has benefitted fans. The game is already so much better now than it was.
  23. bean5302
    Yes. It's too early for whining from a rational standpoint. That said, emotions aren't rational, haha. It's frustrating to watch the Twins struggle so much against the Guardians and parts of the team sputter so early. Honestly, I'm with @Squirrel when it comes to how much wind was knocked out of my sails by Lewis' injury. It was catastrophic to my excitement level. On the bright side, did you guys see that awesome infield grounder play by Julien? He really looked like a stud at 2B there. I was impressed as all hell watching it in the stands. Sprint towards 3rd and in, grab the slow grounder, spin 180* and fire dead on to 1B for the out. It was great. Optimal lineups? Well, here's what I'd wish for. vs. RHP starter 1. 3B Castro 2. 2B Julien 3. SS Correa 4. LF Wallner 5. DH Kirilloff 6. CF Buxton 7. RF Kepler 8. C Jeffers 9. 1B Santana vs. LHP starter 1. 2B Martin 2. 3B Castro 3. SS Correa 4. CF Buxton 5. DH Farmer 6. C Jeffers 7. LF Wallner 8. RF Kepler 9. 1B Kirilloff
  24. bean5302
    Falvey is already salivating... if only he could get his K rate up to 100%...
  25. bean5302
    I have to confess, these types of articles feel like a lot of work, and the guidance the team has provided on them actually drives that message home a bit. I haven't looked too deeply into it. Is there a youtube video or something which is kind of like a sped up/tutorial on how to create them you could share with people?
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