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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    The results have more to do with usage than pitch selection, I’d guess. It’s noteworthy that the Astros refrained from using him in yesterday’s game despite the fact that the circumstances of the game where such that it would have been REALLY easy to ask him to go back-to-back with another inning or two. Molitor would never have had the discipline to do that under those circumstances. Also, he’s going to say something nice about his new team when asked, and it’s no secret they are ahead of the pack with the sophistication of the analytics approach. The trade was justifiable if the assessment was that, even with Pressly, the club would not be in a position to compete in 2019. Sadly, that call could still end up being correct.
  2. jkcarew
    The Twins are coming off an stretch of years where they could realistically expect to get 4.5 - 6.5 WAR out of 2nd base. Obviously, we can hope that other spots in the lineup grow and compensate...but, on the other hand, the Jose Iglesias's of the world won't do much to fill those types of gaps. I say you go after the very best offensive middle-infielder you can get...and do with Polanco what you will based on who you get. (Spoiler: if we get Machado, Polanco goes to 2nd) Also not opposed to including Polanco in trade offers (depending on what happens with FA signings...and what we think about Gordon, Lewis, etc., etc.)...I think the league values Polanco.
  3. jkcarew
    Couldn't agree more. Berrios, I'm glad we have him and optimistic for further growth. But if we're needing/asking him to be a 1...he ain't that close yet. He was certifiably bad against good teams. 2018 was baby steps...but baby steps in the right direction.
  4. jkcarew
    I agree it's a bit of a log jam. So, I'd be all for trading (or making bullpen pieces of) any and all that the FO accesses as having the relatively low ceilings as starters. Having said that, sometimes there is a subliminal inference that depth means quality. Just because it's been better than it was, doesn't mean it's good. It's not good. The Twins starters were league average or below in most any statistical category worth mentioning...and this with the benefit of having played nearly one-third of the schedule against the AAAA lineups of Chicago, Detroit, and KC. The starting staff must be significantly better to compete for anything meaningful in 2019, (or 2020 for that matter). I guess if the FO believes that Berrios or one or more of the younger arms are on the verge of taking significant steps, they can roll the dice with that. But the needle isn't moved by exchanging some 'decent' options for other 'decent' options. IMO, this off-season they should be seriously trying to acquire something better than 2018 Berrios.
  5. jkcarew
    List is about what I'd have. Except catcher. Shouldn't we have a catcher in that spot? Grzelakowski started 20 games at catcher. 20 games. Astudillo not really all that much better...counting DH, less than half his starts were at catcher. And it's not like there wasn't another choice... Rortvedt was an above league-average hitter as a 20-year-old at Ft. Myers while playing, by all reports, solid defense at.....catcher. (71 starts). Congratulations, Ted!
  6. jkcarew
    Here's hoping that, at least for this off-season, the FO acts as if they consider the competition to NOT be the Cleveland Indians. The notion that you can get into the post-season, then "anything can happen" is a false narrative. The underdog will win even one playoff round rarely...and even then only when there is serious upside talent in the batting order and a dominant arm or two. If anyone thinks that Cleveland should be the yard-stick for 2019/2020, I'd challenge whether you've seen the Yankees, Astros, or Red Sox play...at any point during the year....let alone this past week. The reality is that the Twins of the last couple of years (yes, even the 2017 version) are at or near the bottom of the other two AL divisions. There is a LONG way to go with this club. IMO, moves that represent starting over make more sense at this point than middling signings of tier-two free-agents...or trades that 'add major-league depth'. Either blow it up now, or make BIG moves to sign/acquire top talent/upside.
  7. jkcarew
    Cain...it's been good so far. But, we'll see, things have yet to play out. But to me, the story is Yelich and the bullpen. We know how Yelich was acquired. To their credit, Milwaukee beat all other clubs in taking further advantage of a historic yard-sale by the Marlins. But, it was a bit of an anomaly...both in terms of the partner's absolutely historic willingness to dump young, relatively inexpensive, talent...and the ideal result in terms of the player's immediate performance. IMO, clubs are much more likely to hurt themselves than help themselves if they convince themselves that they 'need' to go out and make a splash with a "Yelich-like" deal. It's probably a once-a-decade opportunity/result. Does that mean I think the Twins FO has been sufficiently aggressive? No. It just means I'd just as soon see a story about how the Brewer's FO developed/acquired the bullpen arms. That might provide a more realistic and sustainable template to mimic.
  8. jkcarew
    But my point would be that a guy like Gonzalez is not going to sign anywhere for a bench role...or bench money. He’s already essentially an every-day player even while playing for the best team in baseball. I’d take him, no doubt about that...but we’re talking top super-utility guys now...rare. He’ll have similar leverage as will Escobar both in terms of money and where he wants to make his money. Also the same age. I do think the Twins should take an aggressive look in that direction, though...especially, if Escobar is not looking to come back.
  9. jkcarew
    There is no solve for Buxton and Sano not performing in 2019. The Twins will give them every opportunity in 2019. And no difference-maker is signing in the off-season with the Twins to be a 'contingency' center-fielder or clean-up hitter...not any difference maker. It doesn't work like that. Can the Twins have better depth at 3B, DH, outfield...and hope that Rosario has his best year yet, and a couple of other guys make major steps? Yes. Would that scenario realistically take them to AL contention in 2019? No.
  10. jkcarew
    Grossman has established that he is pretty consistently a SLIGHTLY above league-average hitter. But, that's really not what a GOOD team would want in an every-day DH. Meanwhile, the offense isn't quite enough to carry the glove in the outfield on anything but an emergency/short-term basis. Leaving only the role of bench bat...on a good team. Unfortunately, I'm not sure that role will continue to exist in this era of rosters flooded with pitchers. The Twins may be forced to go with an option with more defensive flexibility. Question is, how much offense will it cost to do that? Guys that have proved league-average bats...and defensive flexibility...and don't have terrible righty/lefty splits...are relatively rare, not easy to get.
  11. jkcarew
    Took the time to look at this. Compiled manually from Baseball Reference.com...so I may have a mistake in here somewhere, but the theme was real for Berrios in 2018... Berrios against better-than-500 teams (finished better than 500) in 2018... 16 starts; 88.1 IP; team record 5-11; Berrios record 2-8 ERA: 5.71; WIP: 1.49 He's 24 years old. Definitely showing signs of having a better upside than this. But, the Twins need to be thinking about improving the staff...including improving it at the top end...if they want to contend in 2019.
  12. jkcarew
    Gibson had a better year than Berrios. He just did. Doesn't mean he's a better pitcher than Berrios...doesn't mean that all of the underlying numbers will lead to the same type of results over time...just means he had a better year than Berrios in 2018. Also, as a reminder...in 2018 all Twins pitchers benefited from nearly 60 starts...more than a third of the schedule...against White Sox, KC, and Detroit. Truly awful teams/lineups. And those lineups can only be getting better over the next few years. For those that think Berrios's numbers stand up as 'no. 1' numbers...look at his splits for results against under/over 500 teams this year. Downright ugly numbers against the top half of the league.
  13. jkcarew
    Usually. But this year would have been the exception to even that axiom. The Twins last 9 series included 20 games against the likes of Texas, KC, Detroit, and the White Sox. Don't think it would have mattered much if those teams had 'been trying' or 'playing it straight'....which they clearly were not. If ever there was a year when September records and statistics can be ignored completely...this would be it regarding the Twins. The Twins need to overhaul in a fairly major way. The manager should be just the first step.
  14. jkcarew
    I don't think you need to be termed a "homer" to appreciate Paul Molitor for his accomplishments, or even for his demeanor through the years as a primary face of the franchise. I both admire Molly....and feel that, at this time, there should be better manager options available for this team.
  15. jkcarew
    Please go outside the organization. Having said that, watching LA, Colorado, Cubs and Milwaukee play yesterday....it drove home how really far away the Twins roster is from looking like that of a true contender. Lots and lots of work to be done beyond getting a new/better manager.
  16. jkcarew
    Maybe I'm just interpreting this topic differently. I don't see the topic and think "what's compelling for my tastes, or any current hard-core fan's taste, when we watch games in 2019". I interpret the topic as a longer-term challenge/question. And in that regard, I view it the responsibility of the game's stewards to see that, as things evolve, baseball adapts in a way that maximizes appeal not to just for the hard-core guys like us, but to the general public as well...the parents of the next and the next and the next generations of future players and fans. Also, I find the concept that somehow the current game has arrived or achieved some significant/lasting/final level of 'smartness' not only misleading...but wrong. The game isn't played any 'smarter' today than it ever has been. Unless one believes that humans inherently lacked cognitive abilities in 1970 (for instance) that they possess today...and unless one doubts that 80 years from now most hard-core fans will be thinking how unsophisticated baseball was back in 'the teens'. Today's game has simply adapted to the facilities, equipment, rules, and information technology that's available. Just like it always has, and always will. The fact that changes in technologies that affect how the game is played are accelerating, IMO only warrants further that MLB should be a bit more aggressive in considering how it should adapt.
  17. jkcarew
    I do think the relative reward for attempting to 'launch' needs to be somehow decreased (which is not the same as saying it should be eliminated). Bigger parks (in the long-term) is the best way to solve this IMO...as it also creates more area to defend in the field of play, which should elevate BABiP and creating more incentive for 'contact' swinging. In the meantime, not sure what can be done with the ball in a viable manner, but it should at least be looked at. I've said it before, I love the power guys and the power displays. But I miss the diversity. When the number 1 and 2 and 7 and 8 guys in the order all have basically the same offensive game/approach as the number 4 guy. That's boring.
  18. jkcarew
    When 'smart' is the opposite of entertaining, it will be a problem. Accepting that the sport becomes less popular with the general public is not a good strategy, IMO.
  19. jkcarew
    I hope his replacement is decent, because contributing in any way to the existence of the startribune is not an option for me.
  20. jkcarew
    In 2018, the pitchers have benefited from having three historically awful teams in the division. Nearly 60 starts against lineups that were barely better than AAA. Those lineups will be getting better. The staff lacks a true #1. While Berrios may take that step in 2019, he didn’t in 2018...and I wouldn’t mind at all the FO going aggressively for whatever #1 types (or #1-ish) might be available in the off-season.
  21. jkcarew
    Probably not yet. I'm confident his game will not regress...not a FA until 2023, and we don't have good alternative options for 2019. Maybe after next season? In the meantime, we get another season to see if he can take that next step.
  22. jkcarew
    His career OPS is 672...and that represents a very clear boundary on his greatness. If we attribute the difference of 22 DRS to Buxton alone...that amounts to 2 wins. If Buxton is going to be OPS+'ing 80 (or less), it won't take much for an average defensive player to make up the 2 wins in the batters box. The defensive stats are cool...they just don't have the value that is often insinuated as part of Buxton conversations. Even center fielders have to hit some to have value. Having said that, if Buxton could OPS+ a consistent 90, he'd have a lot of value. Think somewhere between Gary Pettis and Paul Blair. And I still think it's realistic that he can do that.
  23. jkcarew
    Great topic! The minor league players are exploited...no question. But I don't see how there will every be enough incentive for the minor leaguers to organize/strike. Too many are absolutely replaceable and/or redundant...and they know it. IMO, the help will need to come from the MLBPA. And I'm not holding my breathe on that. They've had opportunities and always neglected to take stands that would result in anything very significant.
  24. jkcarew
    Probably yes...in almost every league I can think of, with the obvious exception of the American and National...and the possible exceptions of the International and Pacific Coast.
  25. jkcarew
    Looking at the BB's it might seem like Stewart and Gonsalves have the same issues. But I'm not sure they do. When I look at Steward, I see a guy who has stuff, but can't get it over the plate despite trying (and doesn't get totally annihilated when he does throw it over the plate) When I watch Gonsalves, I see a guy without much stuff, who tries hard not to throw it over the plate. Maybe, it's just me, but I remain more optimistic on Stewart. (Which probably means Gonsalves has a long and successful major-league career ahead of him.)
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