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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Again, how he fared in 2018 in these scenarios will have no bearing on his trade value.
  2. jkcarew
    For those that love to talk about Dozier's RISP struggles. This is a number that varies widely from year to year for most all batters. Dozier's BA RiSP is down this year. For his career his BA RiSP is almost identical to his overall career BA (as it is for most players). His 2018 BA RiSP will have absolutely nothing to do with his perceived value among potential trade partners.
  3. jkcarew
    I love Dozier as a player, but even I don't want to watch him play for 2 more months just because his replacement will probably make the team weaker. When you pull the plug on a season, you pull the plug. So, if he's not going to be here in 2019, at the very least you can assess 'how far away' Gordon is, etc...or further assess whether you want Adrianza in 2019...or what Escobar looks like at 2nd...anything that has any relevance at all for 2019 plans. I think the return will be limited under current circumstances, but I see that as almost irrelevant. You're not going to give him a QO. Under these circumstances, I'm almost more interested in seeing where he goes, than what we get. The work and improvement he made to transform himself into what he's become warrants a real opportunity in the playoffs...and hopefully a decent payday in the off season.
  4. jkcarew
    Blankenhorn higher than I’d have him. “...keeps his strikeouts in check”. Actually, he’s creeping toward danger, at over 26% this year at the A+ level. That Doesn’t usually go down from here. He’s got to hit the ball over the fence with his profile. It’s hard to judge him too harshly playing in the offensive wasteland that is the FSL, and only 21...but, I’d be higher on him if he could project to an every-day second baseman defensively.
  5. jkcarew
    Tough decision, made tougher by the Buxton/Sano situations. Doubtful this team can challenge in the AL in the next couple of years, even with Realmuto, if Buxton and Sano aren't the good versions we've glimpsed. And, if they ARE the good versions, do you really need Realmuto? Probably not (although, you'd still need more than we're currently getting at the position). Aside from the strategic considerations, if I think Lewis is going to stick at SS and be average+ defensively...I don't know if this is the current read, or not...but if it is, I'm not trading Lewis for 2 years of anyone not named Mike Trout.
  6. jkcarew
    I concede. Two of his base runners scoring in his last inning with him in the clubhouse. It was a strong start.
  7. jkcarew
    Yes, it was decent for sure...strikeouts a bit pedestrian for a power arm...a few more pitches. But only his second game at this level...and I suppose a starter will never see the 7th inning by the time Graterol is in his prime.
  8. jkcarew
    With regard to Jeffers, I don’t know that I’d say the Twins are “believers” in him behind the plate. I’d say it’s more like the Twins felt that it would be “worth a shot” to see if he sticks...given availability at 59th pick...and that if he doesn’t, he still would have a decent chance at providing value at DH/1B. It seems that if the scouting consensus had him sticking as a probability, he would have been long gone by the 59th pick.
  9. jkcarew
    Struggling horrifically with A+ pitching in his age 21 year...almost never walks, power tool showing little sign of development, and zero defensive flexibility. Yeah, Diaz might be a little too high.
  10. jkcarew
    A day well lived. Thanks for sharing!
  11. jkcarew
    I read the title and expected to read about a strong start from Graterol. I guess everything’s relative. One one hand, a half season’s worth of starts like that might actually slow his ascent. On the other hand, it was way, way better than his first start at Fort Myers. But the numbers ‘19’ and ‘101’ trump anything that appears in the box score. Understandably so.
  12. jkcarew
    Nice analysis. A lot of interesting data. In this particular case, I think conclusions are not obvious. Dozier’s walk rate is also down...at the same time his pitches per at-bat are up, his chase rate is down and his contact is weaker. Much of that is counter-intuitive. I think the simplest conclusion may be the only one that holds water...he’s simply not getting the barrel to the ball as frequently as in the past. His age profiles to where this starts happening. I think it’s been slightly compounded by bad luck...as his extraordinarily low BABiP (even for him) can probably not be explained solely by the marginally weaker contact.
  13. jkcarew
    Unless the play on the field is against Baltimore Orioles have averaged fewer than 3 runs every 7 innings, which is what they got off Gibson today. Baltimore has now scored 50 fewer runs than the Twins...with two more games played. Close your eyes for a moment, envision the typical Twins lineup and performance this year...and then contemplate a team being WAY worse offensively than that. That’s the 2018 Baltimore Orioles.
  14. jkcarew
    But why would we expect Kepler to turn into a league average BABIP guy? For some profiles (e.g. Dozier) it never normalizes to average, and Kepler shows every sign of being one of those guys. Never been even in shouting distance of league average...an easy target for aggressive shifts, rarely hits a ball hard to the left of center, etc. I don’t think it’s that much of a stretch to think Cave couldn’t be in the same neighborhood OBP-wise as Kepler, with the difference being who consistently shows more SLG.
  15. jkcarew
    Not to mention OPS in the neighborhood of 700 for the other 3/4 of games. Now, if he could catch....never mind.
  16. jkcarew
    This season is on the players mostly. Opening day starters that haven’t performed to their standard: Castro, Mauer, Dozier, Sano, Buxton, Kepler, and Morrison....and some of these performances haven’t just been poor...they’ve been catastrophic...oh, and the starting SS got himself suspended. While all of this has exposed an embarrassing lack of major league depth in specific cases ©, no organization is going to survive this many starters failing. Not saying roster weirdness (and on-field managerial challenges) haven’t made things more painful than they needed to be from time to time. Having said that, now is the time for the FO to come to the fore. The time for deferring to the manager’s methods/desire to win a game are past us. The moves with Sano and now Buxton were pretty drastic steps...now let’s see more of that. Sell and promote aggressively...learn as much as possible regarding young assets before this off-season.
  17. jkcarew
    Don't know how toolsy he really is. He's already bigger than most that end up sticking at SS, and he really hasn't shown any speed (at least in terms of SB) yet. On the plus side, more mistakes and bigger mistakes are made on the very young players...and this kid was drafted at a very young age. Maybe we'll have a 6th-round steel. Nice to see him already doing well at Elizabethton.
  18. jkcarew
    I think he has some pop. Pretty high percentage of his hits have been for extra bases...for instance, has more combined HR and triples than Lewis despite significantly fewer hits. So, I suppose that, along with the patient approach earns a lot of walks. (And a lot of deep counts and resulting K’s). It will really be interesting to watch his development.
  19. jkcarew
    Cool photo! Could we see that photo with Target Field as the backdrop some day?
  20. jkcarew
    Molitor is neither as good as the second half of 2017 indicated, nor is he as bad as the last couple months would indicate. I said before, I don't think he was the best choice when the Twins hired him. And don't feel differently now. Twins have made a few high-profile decisions with a nod to (at least a bit) of provincial thinking...Morris (he was coming off a pretty poor '89/'90 stretch), Mauer vs Pryor, Molitor. As Michael Lee Aday once said, "Two out of three 'aint bad".
  21. jkcarew
    I know it's easy to pile on Sano right now, and there's not much question Sano's future is trending decidedly down and Rooker's up. But just in an exercise in perspective, and also to remind ourselves that Sano is worth significant salvaging efforts...here is how Rooker's half-year at Chattanooga compares to Sano's half year there.. Sano, 22 years old, HR% 5.2; BB% 13.3; SO% 23.8; OPS 918 (Sano was coming off a missed year with Tommy John) Rooker 23 years old, HR% 4.3; BB% 6.9; SO% 28.5; OPS 813 Rooker seems to be making very steady progress, especially with the K rate. Encouraging.
  22. jkcarew
    The 1 K in 6 innings for Romero is curious...the swings and misses were down in his last few starts with Twins. Maybe something to keep an eye on.
  23. jkcarew
    I don't share your optimism... 1. Buxton has been a completely lost from day 1. And is currently completely lost at the AAA level. 2. Polanco will be replacing Adrianza (847 OPS in June while the Twins have continued to sink) 3. Castro had been awful offensively from the beginning of the year. The cost will not be 'low' for a Ramos rental. 4. Sano is not coming back any time soon. That has been made pretty clear by where they sent him. 5. Hanley Ramiriz? I think hoping for May Morrison to come back for July would be a better bet 6. Joe's been about the same player this year that he was in 2014, 2015, and 2016. And he's 35 years old now. It's really, really unlikely that anything in here (even we added a potential Dozier reawakening) would be enough to account for making up 8 games against Cleveland. I guess, you never know unless you try, and all that. But I wouldn't pass up on any opportunity to add even marginal value at areas of major league or organizational need...not to mention, to learn more about certain prospects by promoting them.
  24. jkcarew
    I think this is pretty fair/objective. I mean, you might bring Mauer back as a bench/depth player. But the challenge there is that he doesn't provide any defensive flexibility, which is critical with the number of pitchers on the modern 25-man. You might keep Dozier (price is looking lower every day)...say, in the unlikely event, for instance, that you used Gordon to obtain a real mlb catcher. I guess you could trade Kepler or Rosario (in a sell high)...but it would have to be for a good or very good right-handed hitting major league outfielder. Unlikely. Buxton or Sano would be too much of a sell-low scenario to be worth it. And the only reason I wait to sell closer to July 31 is if I think that gets me more leverage. So, yeah. This.
  25. jkcarew
    Which means that leaving one-third to one-half of the infield completely open has lead to lower BABiP. Try explaining that one to the baseball novice. Of course true SLG guys aren't going to give in...nor should they. On the other hand, a whole lot of guys that are getting shifted are not in that category.
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