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chaderic20

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Everything posted by chaderic20

  1. chaderic20
    Add the fact that there's a decent chance there won't be a 2022 season, and the urgency to trade Berrios (and others) this year increases.
  2. chaderic20
    I don't want you to be right, but I'm afraid you probably are.
  3. chaderic20
    Instead of using BABIP to determine luck, I was curious what looking at BA vs xBA would show. According to Baseball Savant the Twins have a BA of .245 and an xBA of .255, for a difference of negative 10 points. So at first glance there appears to be a little bad luck, but not a ton. But I noticed it also says that for MLB as a whole BA is .236 and xBA is .243, for a difference of negative 7 points. So really the Twins have only been 3 points of BA more unlucky than MLB as a whole. So, that means we're only losing 3 hits per 1,000 at bats to bad luck, when compared to the rest of the league. Some rough mental math tells me that's about 1 hit every 9 or 10 games. When put that way, that doesn't really seem like much to me. Not even close to being able to blame that for a 13-26 record. Twins pitchers on the other hand have actually been getting a little bit lucky using this method. Twins pitchers are giving up a .256 BA vs a .270 xBA, for a difference of 14 points. Again, MLB as a whole has 7 points difference, meaning Twins pitchers are actually giving up 7 fewer hits than expected per 1,000 at bats, relative to the rest of the league.
  4. chaderic20
    Also, can we get the bullpen usage back as an embedded image in the article? Some of us can't open google docs...
  5. chaderic20
    I've always thought inherited runners that score should be split between the SP and RP based on which base they were on when the RP came into the game. Runner on third when the RP comes in and he later scores, SP gets .75 earned runs and RP gets .25. Runner on second scores, .5/.5. Runner on first scores, .25/.75.
  6. chaderic20
    Batting right-handed against a right-hander is difficult for those who have been doing it their whole life. I highly doubt Polanco will be able to just switch to facing righties as a righty, which I assume he has not done for a very long time, and have any more success than facing them as a lefty, even though that is currently a struggle for him as well.
  7. chaderic20
    Thanks for the insight into the process, Cory!
  8. chaderic20
    Yay! Three trips to Des Moines!
  9. chaderic20
    I guess I'd probably lean towards Odo on this one, but I'd be happy with Paxton too.
  10. chaderic20
    Strictly between these two, I'd go with La Stella. But if the Twins sign someone like Simmons or Semien to play SS, or less likely, trade for Story, that drastically alters the Utility man landscape on the roster.
  11. chaderic20
    My preference in order would be: 1. Neither - rotate internal options 2. Ozuna 3. Cruz I think we have more than enough hitters internally that can be (maybe even NEED to be) rotated through the lineup regularly to fill the DH spot. Ozuna isn't locked into DH only, he can also play outfield, I would guess could probably even play 1B. We've beaten the odds on Cruz's production falling off a cliff the past two years, let's be happy with that and move on instead of rolling the dice one more time against even steeper odds. Also, I keep seeing people excuse Cruz's declined performance at the end of last year with "he had a sore knee." Well, that's what happens when you're 40+ years old. You wake up in the morning with a sore knee for no apparent reason. Or a sore back, or neck, or shoulder, or wrist, or...
  12. chaderic20
    One possibility I don't think I've seen mentioned is Donaldson being DH, Polanco moving to 3B, and signing one of the free agent SS to a one or two year deal while waiting for Lewis to show up. Improves defense at SS, but costs some at 3B, but that's not as important a defensive position as SS, so I think that's an overall win. Plus it should help keep Donaldson in the lineup more consistently, and he should be able to provide as much production as Cruz.
  13. chaderic20
    I'd love to see a Twins-affiliated Saints team come through Des Moines a couple times every year!
  14. chaderic20
    Who's playing the other 80 games at 3B?
  15. chaderic20
    I said basically this exact thing in another thread the other day (http://twinsdaily.com/topic/44054-play-with-the-twins-payroll-at-twinspayrollcom/?view=findpost&p=999930). Now is the time to be investing in free agents while they're cheap. You take a financial hit for the first couple years, but make it back in years 3+ of the contracts by still having them under contract for cheap and winning lots of games, which means more fans, and more playoff money. Or even then trade those cheap contracts down the line for big prospect hauls.
  16. chaderic20
    I feel like the presumed depressed market of baseball provides an enormous opportunity for the Twins here. If everyone else is decreasing payroll by 10%-20%, we can "increase" our payroll by 10%-20% by just not decreasing actual dollars spent. Revenues were down this year, and there's a decent chance they will be next year too, but looking at that and saying we have to cut payroll, I think, is very short sighted. If we even just maintain relatively the same budget we can probably lure in two, three, or four impact free agents to medium or long term deals at fairly reasonable rates. Sure, you've taken a financial hit for a couple years, but if it pays off for the next 3 or 4 years after that, it's worth it. So, with that in mind, here's what I came up with for just $2.5M more spent than this year: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15H3LMLiHjRKVvGDGbP8LFptPJymjbg9fN3OqrDa-BFE/edit?usp=drivesdk You can argue the specific players, I don't care, cuz my main point is that I think everyone is missing the opportunity being presented by the broader market to get some big long term gains by taking a short term hit. (And yes, I know this is easy for me to say since it's not my money.)
  17. chaderic20
    This is the situation I struggle with as well. Multiple times this year there were runners 1st and 3rd with one out and we played the infield in, a weak grounder was hit through the pulled-in fielders that, had we been at normal depth, would have been an inning-ending double play. So instead of no runs and inning over, we allowed the run, got zero outs, and there's still runners on first and second/third. I'm fine with pulling the infield in in other scenarios, but this one specifically bothered me.
  18. chaderic20
    Wade is in baseball's version of the "friend zone". You can't say anything really bad about him, he's a great teammate, he's got some great qualities, he's the perfect fallback option, and he'll find the right person team someday, but it's just not the Twins.
  19. chaderic20
    The term "ace" is a loaded term, so I won't use that. But to me, right now, Maeda is our #1 starter. Ask yourself, if we had to win one game, who do you want on the mound? For me, it's Maeda. There's your #1, or if you want to insist on the term, your "ace".
  20. chaderic20
    To try to put the difference in wealth between owners and player into perspective, just remember that $1B is to $1M, what $1M is to $1K.
  21. chaderic20
    Seems someone here made a proposal similar in concept, this just takes it a step further by restricting travel to FL/AZ. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/36617-schedule-proposal
  22. chaderic20
    The difference comes from the expected performance of a generic replacement level player at that position. Lets say a generic replacement catcher hits a weak grounder to second which turns into an inning ending double play, while a generic replacement corner outfielder hits a single up the middle which doesn't score the runner but doesn't cause any outs either. So even though Kirilloff and Jeffers did the same thing, hit a 2 run homerun, the difference between what they did and what the generic replacement level player would do is greater, therefore Jeffers has the higher WAR.
  23. chaderic20
    Go all in on the exhibition aspect of the game. Throw all the players into a draft pool, have two team captains, and do a schoolyard pick. How fun would it be for the college guys to play with half your team being your guys and half pros? Pitchers can only go one or two innings, lineups must alternate college/pro players, same for pitching changes. Just have fun with it!
  24. chaderic20
    I guess I look at that list and come to the opposite conclusion. I see only one other AL team with a better top 3. Or two, depending on which Rays trio you use, but give Pineda a full season and we'd be ahead of them either way. If only one or two other teams in your league have a better top 3 than you, I'm not so sure that's the "weakness" you need to focus on improving. In fact, I'd say if you have the second best top 3 in your league, you have pretty good odds of making the World Series.
  25. chaderic20
    I can pronounce Luis just fine, thank you.
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