Brock Beauchamp

Apple TV+ going at the Midwest HARD tonight.

Best trade is Cruz for Ryan. Worst trade is Mahle. Those are easy. So let's do penultimate best and worst. Penultimate best is for Odorizzi. The Twins have really hosed the Rays of late. Penultimate worst is... oh, that's a tough one. Probably the Pressly trade? But that wasn't even that bad but there are a few meh/bad trades to choose from there.

Fixed the table so it's much more readable, though far from perfect.

Are people doing that? Sure, Castillo was available but not at the same price as Mahle. The Twins could have paid that price but the two pitchers weren't exactly equivalent. Either way, better decisions could have been made than Mahle, that much is clear.

Every morning we move game threads to the archive forum: https://twinsdaily.com/forums/forum/10-archived-game-threads/

You have to have the + subscription. $6.99/mo with a free seven day trial.

1991 was 32 years ago. Let's not laugh too hard.

By the way, anyone who wants to catch up on the Cubs, we have a Cubs site now... https://northsidebaseball.com/

Honestly, this is going to be a really interesting series against two very similar teams in a lot of ways. Surprisingly good starting pitching, some offensive might, but offensive holes. I think the Cubs have the distinct advantage tonight simply because the Twins have been utterly helpless against LHP. But with Gray on the mound, it might only take two runs to record the W. An interesting series that could be telling for either/both squads.

The results suck but this is what happens when a team continually trades to improve their big league club. You have to accept sub-optimal results on some trades, it's part of the process. It'd be nice if these things always worked out but they don't. Trades and front office moves need to be evaluated in the aggregate, not singularly. Even great organizations like the Rays make trades like the Cruz/Ryan trade. It's part of doing business in MLB.

This is partially true but also partially untrue. Look at his 4-seam this year. He has a batting average against of nearly .600 on the pitch, yet an exit velocity under 80mph. Batters are getting insanely lucky against him, the quality of the pitch does not align whatsoever with the results. Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway% 2023 Sweeper 177 106 71 68.9 86.6 48 46 6 6 0 0 0 13 33 .130 .185 .130 .242 .140 .207 83.5 -2 2865 6.3 26.4 24.1 2023 4-Seam Fastball 64 39 25 24.9 96.0 12 7 4 3 1 0 0 1 7 .571 .421 .714 .484 .612 .505 78.3 -2 2337 6.4 21.1 20.0 2023 Changeup 16 7 9 6.2 90.1 8 7 2 2 0 0 0 2 5 .286 .192 .286 .207 .310 .243 86.3 18 1588 6.4 25.0 33.3 2022 Sweeper 560 455 105 48.4 86.4 161 150 28 22 3 1 2 56 96 .187 .194 .260 .293 .219 .238 86.8 11 2844 5.9 36.8 24.5 2022 4-Seam Fastball 390 234 156 33.7 95.4 75 66 17 9 3 0 5 11 56 .258 .260 .530 .497 .373 .361 90.6 16 2391 5.9 19.3 10.4 2022 Changeup 158 22 136 13.7 89.8 38 36 8 7 1 0 0 10 26 .222 .233 .250 .329 .232 .268 84.1 -7 1580 6.0 31.7 27.8 2022 Curveball 49 15 34 4.2 82.6 13 12 3 2 0 1 0 1 11 .250 .296 .417 .393 .312 .328 90.0 12 2736 5.9 15.8 7.7

It's $7/mo and Apple TV+ offers a free seven day trial. Also, we do not allow discussion of illegal streaming options before anyone jumps in with those suggestions.

It's another Friday night Apple TV+ game. I know it bothers some of you but you should really be in one of two camps here: 1. You're watching Ted Lasso and already have ATV+. 2. You don't have ATV+ and should be watching Ted Lasso. At $7/mo, ATV+ is a banging deal to catch up on a variety of shows. It doesn't have a ton of content but what is there is of exceptional quality: Severance, Mythic Quest, Black Bird, Ted Lasso, and several other shows are absolutely worth a watch. I just finished Black Bird the other day and it's bloody outstanding. As for the Cubs, don't sleep on this team. They're actually pretty good. Smyly is not only a lefty, he damned near pitched a perfect game a couple of weeks ago. Wesneski goes tomorrow and he's a very promising young arm. And Stroman closes out the series on Sunday. It's a formidable trio and the Twins luckily miss the Cubs' ace, Justin Steele. As for the offense, it has holes but Cody Bellinger is back to beast mode. Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner are an outstanding top of the lineup. They recently recalled Mervis and Morel. This team is no longer a pushover. Their weak spots are probably their bullpen and their manager, David Ross. If you get annoyed with Baldelli, be thankful you're not a Cubs fan... which is why I often suggest fans go watch some other teams for awhile when they start railing on Baldelli non-stop. He just isn't that bad in the grand scheme of things. The Cubs may be stumbling at an 18-19 record but their 25-12 BaseRuns record tells a very different story. This is a team that has backed into a ton of unlucky losses, they're a lot better than their record suggests.

The thing about Gray is that if he keeps pitching at such a high level, he's going to want 4-5 years and there's no way I want him for more than three.

It almost always ends up being a non-issue within a week or two.

I watched that first Julien game at second and… woof. I’m going to need to be sold he’s viable anywhere on the diamond.

That feels really aggressive to me. It's certainly possible but I can't predict any timeline shorter than 14 months for Tommy John and effectiveness often isn't immediate. Say he gets the operation on May 15th. Fourteen months puts him at July 15th, 2023. And if it's 16 months - which is pretty typical even today - it's September 15th.

The Twins and Yankees continue to be in an arms race over who made the biggest mistake of the 2022 trade deadline: Mahle vs. Montas.

Given that it's already approaching mid-May, I wouldn't worry about Mahle clogging up a rotation in 2024. The extension would have its eye on 2025.

Thank you. That's so weird, I did the same search and it didn't pop up for me.

Absolutely. In slight defense of Jax, I remember at least some of those walks coming after the defense kicked the ball around the field. Nobody is helping Griffin Jax right now. Not the baseball gods, not his own teammates.

So last night, someone in the game thread was concerned that Jax was coming into the game. Jax has been really good this year but unlucky... but I didn't realize just how unlucky he has been in BABIP and hit sequencing. The one thing he hasn't been good about is walks, giving up seven unintentional walks in 15.2 innings. Let's get that out of the way first. But over those 15.2 innings, he has allowed only 12 hits with zero home runs. He has given up six earned runs and the defense has gifted him three additional unearned runs. He has a very respectable 2.80 FIP that would be much better if not for the walks. This is where the numbers really get crazy. As I said, Jax has 15.2 innings pitched with 12 hits allowed... 11 of those were singles. He has given up all of one extra base hit, a double against the Nationals. While I can't find a link to the MLB video of that double - probably because it's so embarrassing - it was a 49.9mph ground ball rocket ship that scooted by the third baseman. Oh, and it was raining that evening. If you have MLB.tv and don't remember it specifically, go back and watch the "double". It's so emblematic of Jax's season thus far. April 21st, eighth inning. The only XBH Griffin Jax has allowed in 2023 was a grounder that didn't even have a 50mph exit velocity. The expected batting average on the ball was .150. Which explains his Baseball Savant page. Look at those top six numbers. This is not a man who should have an ERA that starts with a three.

As we've seen with Kepler over the years, garbage contact is worse than a strikeout. Sure, you might eek out a hit 10-15% of the time but you also GIDP often and make a pitcher's job easy by getting him out of the PA in a couple of pitches.