Excellent post, Ash. And what you outlined here is why I've stayed well clear of "the Twins were played" or other implications of them being, well, stupid in some way.
In the words of LMM...
I believe they mis-read the market but I think a lot of baseball mis-read the market going into November. But once the market solidified, the Twins remained (as you put it) rigid instead of adapting. Whether that meant offering Correa more money or pivoting while it was possible to acquire a Willson Contreras and/or a Chris Bassitt, I don't really care that much. That's where the discipline Jack mentioned comes into play; choosing to bow out of the Correa market or pay the requisite amount to have him seriously consider Minnesota. Either decision is a fine one, but the decision must be made.
But the worst possible outcome is the one they find themselves right now. It's basically "Dansby Swanson or bust" and given the lack of options remaining, it's probably more accurately stated as "way overpay Dansby Swanson relative to his career performance or bust".