TD Top Prospects: #2 Miguel Sano

My guess is Buxton is #1

Process of elimination. Who hasn't been mentioned in the countdown yet?  That's right...Ryan Eades at #1.

If Sano struggles at 3B where else can he play? The OF is getting crowded, Mauer is at 1st and Vargas can only DH.

Read a great article on George Springer of the Astros regarding his strikeout concerns in AA and the majors.  Reminds me alot of Sano and his fuutre path in a positive sense.

Some of the comments at the bottom of that article had solid comparisons of his AA numbers to the likes of Goldschmidt; Kemp;

Does Sano's 29% SO rate concern fantasy owners?  Will it affect his chance to hit for average (.250 or better)?

http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=19064

My lovable Miguel! The only thing he could say in English when he moved into my home "Will I get enough to eat?". Not a problem. His second question translated by Kennys almost got him into trouble. "Lady, are you to old to take care of me?" I am quite a bit older that Miguel's mom. I told him I was old enough to kick his ass if he needed it. He was a good roomy, quite messy. Kept moving his bed into the middle of the room.

If Sano struggles at 3B where else can he play? The OF is getting crowded, Mauer is at 1st and Vargas can only DH.

They had Eddie Rosario working out at 2nd for a season and he told me he was moved back to the OF because of the lack of OF players.  Maybe he could come back to 2nd base to make room in the OF for Miguel, if needed.  Mauer could retire and put Kennys on 1st. 

I am very excited about Sano and really hope he can stick at 3B.  Here are my best case/worst case for his career.  This assumes he stays healthy throughout his career which is never a given.

Best case - Mike Schmidt (granted a much weaker fielding one)  - This means he sticks at 3B.  Hits .265-.270. Averages about 35 HR a year.  .380 OBP and an OPS around .900.  Averages 80-90 BB a year.  I think his K numbers will be more the first half of Mike’s career, 23-27%, versus the last half where he brought his career average down to 19%.  Averages an o WAR of 5 per season.

Worst case – Adam Dunn. He plays OF or DH.   Dunn’s career average was .237 but was more in the .250 range until the last few years.  .364 OBP, .854 OPS.   Averages 33 HR a year.   80-90 BB a year.  K’s 28% of the time.    Averages about 2.8 o WAR per year.

If Sano struggles at 3B where else can he play? The OF is getting crowded, Mauer is at 1st and Vargas can only DH.

The OF is not crowded yet.  Buxton has a pretty high floor, but there are serious questions about Hicks Rosario, Kepler, and Walker.  Even with Arcia, there is the question as to whether he should DH or whether he should eventually platoon.

Plouffe at 3B is much less of a question than any of those guys.

How do you not get excited about Sano when he has the potential to create more excitement than Vargas did? It seems as if Joe Mauer is creating a logjam at 1B for some of our future stars. If he hits like the Mauer who earnedhis contract, 1B is his no questions asked; however, if he continues to hit like Nick Punto, move him back to catcher at least part time if Suzuki regresses or if Pinto is not adequate. If (when) he gets hurt again, we have Sano and Vargas to tandem at 1B/DH. I agree we have to be patient with Sano and make sure he is ready before he is promoted to the majors, especially with Plouffe becoming a decent 3B. If Sano is in beast mode to start the season at AA, it will be tough to convince Twins fans it is best to keep his bat out of our lineup, especially if Mauer or our catchers are not up to par. The future looks so very exciting. I hope Mauer is a major part of it, but if he is not living up to his contract, management has to do what is best for the team and fans.

How do you not get excited about Sano when he has the potential to create more excitement than Vargas did? It seems as if Joe Mauer is creating a logjam at 1B for some of our future stars. If he hits like the Mauer who earnedhis contract, 1B is his no questions asked; however, if he continues to hit like Nick Punto, move him back to catcher at least part time if Suzuki regresses or if Pinto is not adequate. If (when) he gets hurt again, we have Sano and Vargas to tandem at 1B/DH. I agree we have to be patient with Sano and make sure he is ready before he is promoted to the majors, especially with Plouffe becoming a decent 3B. If Sano is in beast mode to start the season at AA, it will be tough to convince Twins fans it is best to keep his bat out of our lineup, especially if Mauer or our catchers are not up to par. The future looks so very exciting. I hope Mauer is a major part of it, but if he is not living up to his contract, management has to do what is best for the team and fans.

I think option one is keeping Sano at 3B. He is a franchise caliber player so he needs to stick at a premium position if he can.   He has the potential to be much better than Plouffe and Trevor would have some trade value at 3B.   Trevor will be 29 next season and he has a career .723 OPS.  In his best year, he had a .750 OPS which made him somewhere between the 7-10th best 3B.  Middle of the road as far as a corner OF.   We just can't knock Sano, who could play the game the next 20 years off of 3B for what will amount to a few prime years of Plouffe. 

And I say that liking Plouffe more than most. 

If a 3B is between the 7th and 10th best 3B he's better than middle of the road.  Plouffe was 10th in wRC+ last year, he was 4th in UZR, he was 10th in DRS.  Fangraphs had him #4 defensively.  So top 10 offensive 3B and top 4 defender who has hit his prime and settled into his new position.  9th in WAR at 3.5 WAR.

As someone who has never been a big fan of Plouffe, he's a valuable player.  A player many Twins fan under-estimate because it took him so long to reach his potential.  Part of the reason it took so long, IMO, was the Twins inability to see he wasn't a shortstop much earlier in his career.

IMO, if we had just gotten him last year and he had the year he had Twins fans would be drooling all over him.

If a 3B is between the 7th and 10th best 3B he's better than middle of the road.  Plouffe was 10th in wRC+ last year, he was 4th in UZR, he was 10th in DRS.  Fangraphs had him #4 defensively.  So top 10 offensive 3B and top 4 defender who has hit his prime and settled into his new position.  9th in WAR at 3.5 WAR.

 

As someone who has never been a big fan of Plouffe, he's a valuable player.  A player many Twins fan under-estimate because it took him so long to reach his potential.  Part of the reason it took so long, IMO, was the Twins inability to see he wasn't a shortstop much earlier in his career.

 

IMO, if we had just gotten him last year and he had the year he had Twins fans would be drooling all over him.

Right, somewhere between 7 and 10 at 3B.  Definite value there.  But assuming he has 2-4 years left of prime production (which is assuming he is the guy last year through ages 31-33)......does that make sense to give up for potentially 15-20 years of Sano at that prime position?

I think you move Sano to the OF now he never goes back to 3B. 

Greatest TD headline of all time: WHOOPS, I FORGOT ABOUT BUXTON!

More than one commentator has commentated about Sano, Walker et al about swinging at down and out sliders. The standing joke at our house was always, how do you get Torii Hunter or Michael Cuddyer out? Walk the bases full, and throw them three breaking balls in the dirt! (We had a low humor threshold). Regardless, they and others have spent years in the majors trying to harness that temptation. Remember pitchers are not throwing it because it's a bad idea!

I think all of Sano's value will come from his bat. I think it won't matter where he plays his defense will likely not be a strong suit.  I also don't think we see Sano at 3B for 15-20 years either.  

I don't know what the answer is, but I imagine some players will hit better than we expect and some will hit worse and this gets worked out naturally. If the Twins trade Plouffe and put Sano at 3B and his defense is horrible, that's yet another spot where we decided defense holds no value.

Is Sano really up to 260? I knew he was big, but I thought more in the 230 to 240 range. 260 is Vargas big.

If Sano isn't at least an average 3B for part of his career I will be a bit disappointed. This kid came to us a power-hitting shortstop.  He climbed to 2 in the prospect rankings because he had a chance to be a top-level third baseman with his athleticism and arm.  From what I've heard (never seen him play) he has consistency issues but has the ability to make the spectacular play.  You don't give up on that.  

I think we should find out if Arcia, Vargas or Sano are actually able to perform at this level before we toss aside a 2.5-3.5 WAR player. And we have time to decide about Plouffe anyway.

Let me think about these two thoughts: Sano is one of the best hitting third base prospects to come along in years! Sano cannot beat out Plouffe at third base! Hmmm!

Let me think about these two thoughts: Sano is one of the best hitting third base prospects to come along in years! Sano cannot beat out Plouffe at third base! Hmmm!

and no one is saying that.

I guess I can fall back on what I said earlier: 'I don't know what the answer is, but I imagine some players will hit better than we expect and some will hit worse and this gets worked out naturally. If the Twins trade Plouffe and put Sano at 3B and his defense is horrible, that's yet another spot where we decided defense holds no value.' 

Obviously if Sano's defense is average and he's hitting a ton like so many expect him to right out the gate, then we have some fantastic decisions to make.

I think the Twins trade Plouffe when Sano is ready. Maybe give Plouffe a little time in the outfield if Rosario and Buxton are not ready when Sano is, but Sano is the 3rd baseman of the future. Yes, Sano is good enough that you'll always find him somewhere to play. No question. The reason to put him at 3rd is not to find him somewhere to play, it is so that you can keep Mauer, Vargas, and Arcia in the lineup (and later Minier or Diaz at 1st base). Plouffe is a valuable player, and I like the guy personally, but most of his future value to the Twins will be in a trade. It just makes no sense otherwise.

Completely agree.   You only move Plouffe when you know Sano sticks at 3B.  Plouffe by virtue of him being a 3B would hold more value in a trade than our LF.