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    Minor League Promotions Coming Soon?


    Seth Stohs

    Mid-June is always a fun time in minor league baseball, and it’s true in the Twins system right now too. All-Star games. Playoff berths are up for grabs. The short-season teams are about to start. Draft picks are signing and reporting. And, there are often several players who are promoted around this time.

    Today, I’ll share my thoughts on which players should be under consideration for promotion soon.

    We’ll start with a couple of players on the Rochester roster who could be considered for a promotion real soon. Then we’ll work our way down the ladder.

    Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily (photo of Jermaine Palacios)

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    There are many reasons for promotions (or for a player to stay at a level). Obviously performance tends to be one of the factors. Also, behind the scene types of things like leadership, growth, maturity and more. In reality, sometimes age factors into the decision of who to move up. There have been guys who have been pushed to a level, maybe without the numbers to justify it, but they’re being given one final opportunity to take off. Sometimes that player does. Other times, it doesn’t pan out. Like the draft, player development and timing of promotions are not science, though more and more there are scientific (or advanced statistical) reasons for them as well.

    In other words, there may be some promotions of players not mentioned below. It is somewhat fun to speculate the reasons for them to try to gain understanding. Or, maybe that’s my way of saying that I don’t know what will happen… Either way… Enjoy and at the end post your thoughts.

    ROCHESTER → MINNESOTA

    There have already been several players who have taken that direct flight from Rochester to Minneapolis and back. Last week, I chatted with Alan Busenitz in an article stating that he was ready, the next bullpen arm in line for a promotion to the big league club. On Friday night, we learned that would happen, and on Saturday night he made his MLB debut.

    But Busenitz isn’t the only Red Wings player who is deserving of an opportunity. In the Red Wings bullpen, Trevor Hildenberger should be next in line for a spot in the Twins bullpen. He has thrown 29 innings over 20 appearances this year in Rochester. He is 2-1 with a 2.17 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9. At 26, the side-winding right-hander has confidence in his ability to throw three or four pitches for strikes at any time, in any count. Frankly, he’s got little more to prove in the minor leagues.

    From an offensive standpoint, the choice for player most ready is pretty obvious. Though he missed the first month of the season with an oblique injury, Zack Granite has returned. In his last 19 games, he has hit .487. In 41 games with the Red Wings, he has hit .349/.410/.485 (.895) with 14 doubles, four triples and a home run. He’s walked 16 times and struck out 18 times. He also has 16 stolen bases. Frankly, his readiness isn’t even about the results and stats. It’s also just about his advanced approach at the plate and the types of at-bats he produces. He has good range all around the outfield. In my opinion, Granite needs to play every day and bat leadoff somewhere. If he’ll get that with the Twins, call him up. If he’s going to sit on the bench, stay in Rochester and keep raking. Either way, he’s ready for the opportunity.

    CHATTANOOGA → ROCHESTER

    Right before the All-Star break, lefty Mason Melotakis was moved up to the Red Wings. On Monday, Jake Reed returned to the Red Wings after a short stint with the Lookouts after missing the first six weeks of the season.

    But there are a couple more relievers who should be promoted to the Red Wings too. I think everyone would agree that John Curtiss is ready to move up. He’s playing in the Southern League All-Star Game, but I would think he’d move up right after it. Since some early control concerns, he has been incredible. He didn’t give up a run until his 20th appearance of the year. The superlatives could continue, but we’ve been writing about the 24-year-old’s readiness for over a month here at Twins Daily.

    Luke Bard had several injuries early in his career, but since coming back last year, he’s been a strikeout machine. Maybe it has to do with his incredible spin rate. In 32 innings this year, he has 52 strikeouts to go with just 11 walks. Not that there has to be a rush to promote the 26-year-old, it might be good to push him as he’ll be a potential 40-man roster add. And, those strikeouts sure are intriguing.

    Evaluate just a little bit longer (pitchers): Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero and Felix Jorge are all pitching really, really well for the last month or more, but for various reasons, they should stick in Chattanooga. In my opinion, Gonsalves is the closest to ready for a promotion, but I’d give him two or three more starts before doing that. Fernando Romero has really been good as well, but there is reason for patience. And frankly, if he reaches a pre-established innings count, call him right up to the Twins and put him in the bullpen. And Jorge quietly continues to improve and put up strong start after strong star.

    Evaluate a bit longer (hitter): Nick Gordon has had a terrific season at the plate. He’s walked more. He’s hit for more power. He’s been everything we’d hope for, taking a big step forward. But in my mind, there is little incentive to moving Gordon up. At AA, he’s facing some of the better pitching prospects. There’s nothing wrong with him spending a season playing well all year. If they want, they could call him up directly from AA sometime. But it’s also important for him to keep playing shortstop most every day, and he can do that in Chattanooga. Let Engelb Vielma play shortstop every day in Rochester. Let Jorge Polanco play shortstop most every day in Minnesota. And let Gordon continue to work on things with the bat and in the field in Chattanooga.

    FT. MYERS → CHATTANOOGA

    Randy LeBlanc has moved up and down from the Miracle to the Lookouts several times in the last month. Dereck Rodriguez was also moved up to the Lookouts, but after one start, he was sent back to the Miracle and pitched in the Florida State League All-Star Game. I would expect that he will move up to Chattanooga and stick there. Also, relievers Alex Muren and Nick Anderson have moved up recently. So, there isn’t a lot left to promote from the Miracle to the Lookouts. But we’ll figure out a couple of names.

    Soon, and if now, OK… Sam Clay gave up six earned runs in ⅔ of an inning in his first outing of the year. He then went over 24 innings without giving up a run. Overall, he’s 5-0 with a 2.18 ERA. In 33 innings, he has 36 strikeouts, but he’s also got 18 walks. That’s likely the biggest reason for hesitation in promoting him. However, most of those walks have come in just three of his 20 games. If several Lookouts pitchers make their way to Rochester, Chattanooga will need some arms.

    Consideration: In part, some promotions are due to need and roster spots. 24-year-olds Zander Wiel and Max Murphy could be moved up if there is a need. For instance, when Brent Rooker moves up to the Miracle, he can play first base and in the outfield. One of those two could move up to make room.

    CEDAR RAPIDS → FT. MYERS

    The Kernels clinched a playoff spot and now begins their All-Star break. Following the break, I could see a few players promoted. Dominant relievers Tom Hackimer and Andrew Vasquez were already promoted to the Miracle. Colton Davis is another reliever who could move up for the second half.

    The easiest choice would be promoting shortstop Jermaine Palacios. He spent 2016 struggling in Cedar Rapids before his season ended early with injury. Now 20, he has put up a terrific season in 2017 with the Kernels. He’s hitting .322/.362/.549 (.911) with 13 doubles, six triples and 11 home runs. He’s done that while playing a very good shortstop. He’s ready to move up.

    I think that Jaylin Davis should receive strong consideration for a promotion to the Miracle as well. He’s been solid throughout the season and leads the organization in home runs. His 28% strikeout rate is obviously still a little high, but a slight improvement from last year.

    Sean Poppen and Clark Beeker are representing the Kernels starting staff in the Midwest League All-Star Game. Poppen is 5-1 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. In 74 innings, he has 17 walks and 67 strikeouts. Beeker is 6-2 with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. In 75.1 innings, he has 11 walks and 52 strikeouts.

    Tyler Wells has arguably been the Kernels top starting pitcher this season. In 10 starts and 57 innings, he is 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. He has 14 walks and an impressive 80 strikeouts. He missed two starts with some biceps tendinitis, but he has continued to impress since his retur, making arguably his best start on Saturday night when the Kernels really needed a win.

    EXTENDED SPRING TRAINING → CEDAR RAPIDS

    Elizabethton starts its season on Thursday night. They are traveling via bus as I type this. The GCL season starts on Monday. However, as we don’t yet have the short-season rosters, it is possible that a few players from extended spring training will not go to Elizabethton but instead head to Cedar Rapids.

    Pitchers Henry Centeno and Keaton Steele are in EST and could go to Cedar Rapids or Ft. Myers at some point. Catchers Justin Hazard, Rainis Silva and Brian Olson could go to Cedar Rapids or Ft. Myers. Infielders Andre Jernigan and Amaurys Minier could go to Cedar Rapids. Outfielder Shane Carrier could return to the Kernels, particularly if Jaylin Davis were to move up to Ft. Myers.

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    In coming days, we’ll post previews of the Elizabethton Twins and GCL Twins rosters. In our daily Twins Minor League reports, we stay on top of all of the transactions, so keep looking there for more promotions.

    But for today, make some of your predictions about who you would like to see promoted. And feel free to ask about any others that I may have missed.


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    To make room for all this movement, several (5, 6?) folks at Rochester need to simply be let go --- or a mix of folks -- a couple from each of three or four teams.  I'm wondering who those folks are.  It can't be just the fringes of each team's roster, that won't provide the necessary playing time.

     

    Considering the lack of talent being called up to the MLB from Rochester, there should be a lot of fat to trim on the team. 

     

    Not sure where to bring this up but... Chih-Wei Hu's fastball in limited MLB appearances was an average of 93 mph, why am I thinking on of the knocks on him when traded for Jepsen was his fastball velocity was below average?

     

    He was touching 96 before the trade. There were no knocks on Hu at that time. They knew that they were giving up someone with a future when they dealt him. That's the "danger" of being a buyer at the trade deadline. You're going to give something up to get something. And Jepsen helped the Twins a ton down the stretch in 2015. But Hu was being a bunch of guys on the Twins prospect rankings already back then, a mid-teens type of prospect. The Rays have moved him to the bullpen too now. 

     

    Randy Rosario? Any thoughts on him? I haven't checked his stats since he was optioned back to the Lookouts. Maybe he's young enough that a little more AA time wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

     

    That was my thought. I figured that with Reed and Melotakis already moving up, and me supporting Bard and Curtiss moving up, Rosario can stay in AA for now. I think it's a good thing. He started the year in Ft. Myers, and he's young, so no worries. I'd push the older guys (who also have upside). 

     

    To make room for all this movement, several (5, 6?) folks at Rochester need to simply be let go --- or a mix of folks -- a couple from each of three or four teams.  I'm wondering who those folks are.  It can't be just the fringes of each team's roster, that won't provide the necessary playing time.

     

    I would expect there would be some releases, some mysterious DL placement, but not just at Rochester, also at some of the lower levels as well. 

     

    Several players in Extended Spring were released yesterday, and I'm sure we'll hear of more as well.

     

    To make room for all this movement, several (5, 6?) folks at Rochester need to simply be let go --- or a mix of folks -- a couple from each of three or four teams.  I'm wondering who those folks are.  It can't be just the fringes of each team's roster, that won't provide the necessary playing time.

    There two players on the Rochester roster who have an OPS of >=.800. That would be Mitch Garver & Zach Granite. There are two players who have a batting average of >=.265. That would be Granite and Matt Hague.

    Seven players are 27 years old or older.

    Now I realize selecting a BA of .265 is arbitrary, but few would expect a guy hitting .265 in AAA to hit better than .240 in MLB. That is a BA that most teams are unlikely to find helpful.

     

    Yes, I agree that there are players who could be trimmed from AAA.

    I would be concerned about Wade's ability to hit with hard contact as shown by his ISO. As compared to Grossman's time in AA it is much lower.

     

    The Twins have much better data to look at for barrels and hard contact. Maybe most of his hard contact is directly at fielders and his low ISO is a poor indicator. He won't walk in the majors if he doesn't hit the ball with some authority. Major league pitchers will pitch to his weaker contact and his walk rate will drop considerably.

     

    While he is in AA, he needs to be more aggressive attacking pitches that he can drive. Without recognition of pitches that he can drive, it will be hard to be successful in the majors.

    The bigger question is who departs. Does the Yohan Pino's disappear from Rochester to make room. Who isn't playing well and can be given walking papers, at all levels, now that a fresh crop of players will start movement from Cedar Rapids and above!

     

    Who do the Twins carry that will be minor league free agents come the end of the season, those that have no chance of being added to the 40-man and who might best be served by switching organizations sooner rather than later.

     

    And anyone else the Twins think they should grab from Indy ball? The return of Mark Hamburger or Caleb Thielbar!

     

     

    The bigger question is who departs. Does the Yohan Pino's disappear from Rochester to make room. Who isn't playing well and can be given walking papers, at all levels, now that a fresh crop of players will start movement from Cedar Rapids and above!

     

    Who do the Twins carry that will be minor league free agents come the end of the season, those that have no chance of being added to the 40-man and who might best be served by switching organizations sooner rather than later.

     

    And anyone else the Twins think they should grab from Indy ball? The return of Mark Hamburger or Caleb Thielbar!

     

    This is the part that doesn't get talked about with regards to promotions.  Minor league teams have rosters too, and someone going up means someone else going down or out.  It's a big reason why this type of things doesn't happen consistently until after the draft/ASB.

     

    IMO... these comments provide zero value without there being a suggestion for who would be adequate (or at least 'better') replacements.

     

    At this point, I'd take Eddie Guardado, Terry Mulholland, or even a statue of a garden gnome over any of those guys.  But if you want actual names, Hildenberger, Curtiss, and Gonsalves. Heck, I'd even take Tonkin back.  

     

    Anyone our favorite team trades, instantly becomes a board favorite. Any player we receive in return, instantly becomes a board scapegoat. It's a game we play here on TD. 

    Yeah but quite a few people (myself included) who thought the deal was dumb at the time, now two years later it's even dumber.  Jepsen is now out of baseball, was ineffective as a Twin while Hu is 23, in the MLB and under service control for the next 6 years

     

    Yeah I agree... Other than Mauer and Sano, who were the cream of the crop elite prospects, I can't think of other prospects in this organization who have immediate MLB success from AA. 

     

    Gordon is good and could be great, but he's not an ELITE prospect IMO. 

    Chris Parmelee and Kennys Vargas had immediate success. It was the following seasons that were the problem, but that probably had more to do with their talent than them skipping AAA.

    Chris Parmelee and Kennys Vargas had immediate success. It was the following seasons that were the problem, but that probably had more to do with their talent than them skipping AAA.

    Ah good call. Forgot about Vargas being a AA call up. And I've erased all memories of Parmelee from my mind.

     

    Dominate strikes me as a stretch. He's doing fine, but really hits with little pop. Wade and Granite are setting themselves up to be nice 4th OFs, seem to be lined up nicely for when a promotion might happen.

    Agreed. Wade really only had one dominant month, with an .888 OPS in May. April and June have been underwhelming, though he still took a lot of walks those months.

    Seth made the half glass full post regarding players soon to be getting promotions but sadly there is usually an inverse that happens at this time as well in players getting cut at this point too.  Usually it's draftees from 2014, 2015 class but occasionally you'll get a smattering of 2016 picks and international signing failures.

     

    It's two games... I'll have to ask him how that's going. It definitely is interesting, giving him more value... but two games is not enough to know much of anything.

    Does it really matter though? His hitting would have to be really good to justify giving him any starts in the OF, assuming he's well below average out there.

    Cannot agree more with those.  Couple things:

     

    a. Just by looking at rosters, the Red Wings have only 2 active OFs and the Rock Cats Lookouts only 3.   Pretty sure that this will not continue and more OFs will get there.

     

    b. There is room (and need) to get rid of older under performing players, starting with Tray Vavra who will be 26 this September and has a .432 OPS at A+.  Yohan Pino, Paul Clemens, Matt Tracy, David Fischer, Jonny Drozd also fall in this category.  26 and 27 year olds have no business in high A.  You either promote them if they are good, or say goodbye.  They are in their primes and if they cannot deal with high A competition at this age, the spots better left for others to develop.

     

    c. The lack of catching depth in the organization is simply scary, esp at the higher levels.  I suspect that they might move some catchers up just because of need as well. Similar to the OF situation, but worse, because it is more specialized position

    If he's healthy, I'd promote the Thorpedo to AA. Sure, it's been only a few innings after two years off, but health seems to be his challenge more than ability. Therefore, if he's proven he's healthy, move him on up.

     

    I'd also like to see Gonsalves and Romero in AAA. There's a realistic chance they could become #3 and #4 in next year's starting rotation, barring a trade of Santana or a signing of a free agent. It would be good for them to get some AAA innings this year.

     

    Gordon seems like he could be on the Kepler path. OK for a few years, then great in Chattanooga, then a short time in AAA the next year before sticking in the majors. One possible variation is Dozier; if he's traded this year or in the offseason, Gordon would be a logical replacement, which means hitting some AAA pitchers this year could benefit him. That said, if management wants him to stay at AA, that would probably be fine.

     

    When do these moves usually happen? I heard several weeks after the draft because it's a logistical challenge moving and releasing people. I am Particularly referring to the lower levels

    Honestly, it's got to be soon as the GCL season starts on 6/26 and Etown starts 6/22 and there were close to 70 players in camp for EXST plus the 20 or so the Twins will sign from the draft.

     

    When do these moves usually happen? I heard several weeks after the draft because it's a logistical challenge moving and releasing people. I am Particularly referring to the lower levels

     

    My guess is that Palacios is on a plane to Ft. Myers tomorrow (Wednesday) morning... but I could be wrong. 

     

    Luke Bard had several injuries early in his career, but since coming back last year, he’s been a strikeout machine. Maybe it has to do with his incredible spin rate. In 32 innings this year, he has 52 strikeouts to go with just 11 walks. Not that there has to be a rush to promote the 26-year-old, it might be good to push him as he’ll be a potential 40-man roster add. And, those strikeouts sure are intriguing.

    Why shouldn't there be a rush to promote Bard to AAA?  Like you said, he's Rule 5 eligible this winter unless we add him to the 40-man, but that decision and his 40-man future are a lot more up in the air than someone like, say, Gonsavles.  I would think we'd want to push Bard and get more data to better inform those decisions.

     

    Also, given his injury history (and perhaps his family history?), who knows how long this success will last for Bard? I think we'd want to make the most of it while we can.

     

    The bigger question is who departs. Does the Yohan Pino's disappear from Rochester to make room. Who isn't playing well and can be given walking papers, at all levels, now that a fresh crop of players will start movement from Cedar Rapids and above!

     

    Who do the Twins carry that will be minor league free agents come the end of the season, those that have no chance of being added to the 40-man and who might best be served by switching organizations sooner rather than later.

     

    And anyone else the Twins think they should grab from Indy ball? The return of Mark Hamburger or Caleb Thielbar!

     

     

    This is the part that doesn't get talked about with regards to promotions.  Minor league teams have rosters too, and someone going up means someone else going down or out.  It's a big reason why this type of things doesn't happen consistently until after the draft/ASB.

     

    Any of Tonkin, Wimmers, and Baxendale could be sent to AA, based on middling AAA performance alone not to mention lack of a future in the org.  Nobody has to be given walking papers yet, if there is any concern about losing minor league depth or filling the vacated AA spots.  (Mickolio would be another option for demotion, although I'm guessing we promised him a longer leash?)

     

    On the starter side, now that we've added Melville, Heston, and Wilk to the AAA starting ranks since the season began, Pino and Tepesch could be near future releases if we want too (assuming they don't want to be sent to AA, or we have better replacements in mind for AA).

     

    Most of these guys will be minor league free agents at season's end anyway, except Baxendale. (I'm assuming Wimmers gets removed from the 40-man again by that point.)




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