Minor League Report (6/23): Saints Break Winning Streak in Rough Loss; Fort Myers Breaks Out

Wow, the Saints can hit, even against a top ranked pitched.

Rare great game for Adams at Wichita. They have so many quality starting pitchers there but they keep sticking with Adams in the rotation. Teams apparently have figured out Cardenas and Cossetti at AA. After really good April's, it's been all downhill. Cardenas OPS - .795 in April, .564 in May, and .300 (not a typo) in June. Cossetti - ..775, .729, and .225. 

20 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

 

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Julien only struck out once, If he keeps this up along with getting on base, I hope they bring him up soon. They need to put Severino at DH to give Julien more time at 1B, while he's down there.

Varland isn't this bad. There are serious underlying conditions, where he can't pitch in AAA but up at MLB he can. Twins need to ditch their playbook & deal with this problem. Paddack is having problems with being over-extended. Bring up Varland to help limit Paddack's innings, have Varland go at least 1X through the order & let him little by little work on what he needs to work on. At the same time, you kill 2 birds with one stone.  Overdue is better than never.

I think they should move Paddack to the bullpen and give his rotation spot to Varland. Give him one more chance to show he can be a starter. Give him one or two starts. If it doesn't go well, stick him in the bullpen and give Festa his shot. We really need a starter and a lefty bullpen arm at the deadline. Theilbar needs to go, he's just a wasted roster spot, and we can trust Okert or Funderburk in leverage situations...

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Bring up Varland to help limit Paddack's innings, have Varland go at least 1X through the order & let him little by little work on what he needs to work on. At the same time, you kill 2 birds with one stone.  Overdue is better than never.

You may be the only person who sees Varland get destroyed by the Toledo Mud Hens and thinks "Promote this pitcher!".

Edit - OMG, there's another!

18 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I think they should move Paddack to the bullpen and give his rotation spot to Varland

Julien had a good week, so hopefully he's getting himself re-set and back to being the quality hitter he's shown he can be. I think it's fair to have him show it for a few more weeks, though: selective aggression, patience, and making consistent contact when he swings. Development paths aren't always linear.

Doncon seems to be settling in at Cedar Rapids, and it'll be interesting to see how he finishes the season. He's still getting most of his time at SS, but they are playing him at 2B and 3B as well. Hopefully he can show a little more pop in the bat, but I'm always happy when I see guys hitting triples.

14 minutes ago, Dman said:

From what I have seen he looks good at Shortstop.  Not Miller good, but solid.  He is a pretty big guy though so it will be interesting to see how filling out affects his body. 

I have said he has zero chance to be an MLB shortstop. Do you think he has any chance to stick there?

9 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah I have my eye on Doncon and Miller to some degree since that seemed to the real trade IMO.  Watching on MiLB.tv yesterday I really felt like his approach was advanced for a 20 year old.  He wasn't swinging wildly at pitches outside the zone and he has good contact skills.  He has struggled more at High A than low A especially getting to his power as his OPS was in the .600 range until this week with a couple of triples and doubles which has his OPS around .750 which in a smaller sample size is better than Miller's right now.

From what I have seen he looks good at Shortstop.  Not Miller good, but solid.  He is a pretty big guy though so it will be interesting to see how filling out affects his body.  He has good power already and there is likely more to come.  I am enjoying watching him and he has potential to be a very good to great player IMO.

I would expect most guys need some adjustment time in their first stint at a higher level, but we'll see where Doncon lands at the end of the season. If he's able to show similar power to what he flashed in Ft. Myers it's a good sign. I still don't expect Doncon to stick at SS, though.

Miller had a hot stretch when he hit 4 HRs in 3 games at the end of April/beginning of May...since then he's been kinda rough at the plate again: fairly poor OB%, only 7 xbhs in 46 games since the HR barrage, and his OPS has been on a real slide back down under .700. not great for repeating High A. he might still make it because the glove is excellent, but he's likely to just get overwhelmed at the plate unless something changes and not many teams can carry a no-hit defensive specialist. I suspect this is why the twins were willing to deal him.

2 hours ago, Dman said:

 On the other hand Ft. Myers is depleted of talent and has brought in quite a few older free agent players and you could see the difference that made in the game.

I don't know.  Varland and the Home run issues makes me want him to be a pen arm. His stuff isn't working as a starter.  He threw more strikes yesterday, but was hit extremely hard.  I think resting his arm and a mental break could make some sense. he just wasn't himself in that game.

Julien with a typical Julien day multiple hits and multiple walks.  I hope he keeps this up as he hasn't looked that great at AAA to me when I have watched him.  Still work to do there IMO, but yesterday he looked like the hitter I remember.

Honestly Ft. Myers isn't that bad,  Pitching could really start to become dominant even with promoting Lee and Langenberg.  Hall, Dunn, Soto, and now moving Bengard to SP.   That could be a very strong starting 4, especially if Soto is starting to dial it in which I think he is.  As to the hitters a little weak right now,  but Jenkins could turn it around.  Where is Winokur?? But Wingrove (independent league pick up) .929 OPS, Peyton Eeles .965 OPS, C Ruiz OPS .965, RF Hess 1.185, Winokur .759.  You can build a lineup around that.  Yes some independent league pickups,  but some interesting talent there.  

Varland is just too much of a wildcard.  Blow ups in MLB blow ups in AAA.  I think he needs some time off to readjust.  I think reliever is his only chance really at a decent career.  

Julien and Wallner really starting to get into a groove.  Those appear to be next to options with injuries or underperformance.  Nice to have those options, with minimal quality players available in trades this year.  

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

You may be the only person who sees Varland get destroyed by the Toledo Mud Hens and thinks "Promote this pitcher!".

Edit - OMG, there's another!

I've been promoting Varland's role in the Twins since the beginning of the season. & I've been criticized every time because of Varland's poor outings in AAA. Yet he gets promoted & used in the right way & produces on the MLB level. Then he's sent down & told to focus on "this" & gets pounded. Varland's situation is much like spring training & in his case his production in AAA is irrelevant. At the same time, I advocated for Alcala to be brought up & used correctly & the time that he was used incorrectly shouldn't be counted against him. Now he's stayed up being used correctly & impacting the Twins.

I wished you had used my whole quote, that'd have made things a little clearer.

9 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I would expect most guys need some adjustment time in their first stint at a higher level, but we'll see where Doncon lands at the end of the season. If he's able to show similar power to what he flashed in Ft. Myers it's a good sign. I still don't expect Doncon to stick at SS, though.

Miller had a hot stretch when he hit 4 HRs in 3 games at the end of April/beginning of May...since then he's been kinda rough at the plate again: fairly poor OB%, only 7 xbhs in 46 games since the HR barrage, and his OPS has been on a real slide back down under .700. not great for repeating High A. he might still make it because the glove is excellent, but he's likely to just get overwhelmed at the plate unless something changes and not many teams can carry a no-hit defensive specialist. I suspect this is why the twins were willing to deal him.

Miller needs to be a below average bat to be a defensive backup in the big leagues,  his bat isn't there yet.  Doncon, needs to be an above average bat, and so far at 20 years old,  appears to be well on track.  Hopefully the hit tool continues to be solid with some decent power.  This could end up being a decent trade for the twins.  Especially if Margot can keep up his hot bat.  

Just now, Doctor Gast said:

I've been promoting Varland's role in the Twins since the beginning of the season. & I've been criticized every time because of Varland's poor outings in AAA. Yet he gets promoted & used in the right way & produces on the MLB level. Then he's sent down & told to focus on "this" & gets pounded. Varland's situation is much like spring training & in his case his production in AAA is irrelevant. At the same time, I advocated for Alcala to be brought up & used correctly & the time that he was used incorrectly shouldn't be counted against him. Now he's stayed up being used correctly & impacting the Twins.

I wished you had used my whole quote, that'd have made things a little clearer.

Maybe you are right,  I think with the increase velocity on the fastball,  it is just not creating enough movement and its creating too many opportunities for good players to crush it.  It really decreases the chance of continued success. 

42 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I've been promoting Varland's role in the Twins since the beginning of the season. & I've been criticized every time because of Varland's poor outings in AAA. Yet he gets promoted & used in the right way & produces on the MLB level. Then he's sent down & told to focus on "this" & gets pounded. Varland's situation is much like spring training & in his case his production in AAA is irrelevant. At the same time, I advocated for Alcala to be brought up & used correctly & the time that he was used incorrectly shouldn't be counted against him. Now he's stayed up being used correctly & impacting the Twins.

I wished you had used my whole quote, that'd have made things a little clearer.

Sometimes being lucky is better than being good. He has an ERA of 6.58 in the big leagues and 7.33 in the minors. He's been bad far more often than he's been effective. The way to "use him correctly" is to move him back to the bullpen where the increased velocity makes him effective.

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

I have said he has zero chance to be an MLB shortstop. Do you think he has any chance to stick there?

Here is his scouting report

" If he loses some quickness, second base may be his long-term home and he saw time at three infield spots in 2023".

Miller was traded because LAD could see his potential & appreciate his elite glove & MN couldn't & didn't appreciate his elite glove but drooled over Doncon's raw power. IMO as Doncon matures he'll lose his quickness & get moved off SS. IMO the Twins are full of pseudo-SSs with big bats. After Lee graduates from MiLB our level at SS will drop drastically.

After Correa can no longer play SS, Lee & Lewis are considered replacements. While they have great bats, Miller has the superior glove & as he develops into the switch-hitting contact hitter he was scouted as. He should have been the top contender for the vacancy.

If I had a choice between an elite GG SS that can get on base & a slugging 2Bman. I choose the prior any day of week because that type of player at a prime position is hard to come by.

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

After Correa can no longer play SS, 

The Twins can worry about 2029 later. Correa is the shortstop until then. Noah Miller should be available as a minor league free agent if they want him in 2029.

57 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Sometimes being lucky is better than being good. He has an ERA of 6.58 in the big leagues and 7.33 in the minors. He's been bad far more often than he's been effective. The way to "use him correctly" is to move him back to the bullpen where the increased velocity makes him effective.

That's what I meant when I said that I wouldn't use him much more than 1X through the order. And it's evident that he's having difficulty to be used as a SP but has been very effective as RP. 

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I thumbs down voted because you didn't know why they did what they did, DeAndrade says hi also. 

I admit I wasn't in the meeting when they decided to trade Miller. But you can glean a lot when you observe people's actions more than what they say. You can see what their priorities are. LAD has a great reputation of player evaluation & development.

Oh, you're a good friend of De Andrade! Say hi back. tell him I'm sorry but he hasn't proven to me that he can absolutely be an above-average SS or even stick there much less or if he can hit at the same time.

19 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

LAD has a great reputation of player evaluation & development. 

LA wanted to dump Margot from the roster. That was their main motivation for the trade.

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

LA wanted to dump Margot from the roster. That was their main motivation for the trade.

LAD is complex they have multiple objectives. Like when they wanted to dump a disgruntled Maeda as their primary objective, their secondary objective was to land our top pitching prospect. LAD was motivated to sell & we shouldn't had to trade Graterol. Actually Graterol was ear tagged to be a RP & Balazovik was the top SP prospect which I advocated to replace Graterol. FO caved.

Dump Margot was the primary objective but obtaining Miller was the secondary. Again LAD was motivated to dump Margot & we didn't have to trade Miller. Here FO blew it again.

16 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Dump Margot was the primary objective but obtaining Miller was the secondary. Again LAD was motivated to dump Margot & we didn't have to trade Miller. Here FO blew it again.

You've made it very clear that a) you think the front office doesn't value defense, b) you highly value defense, c) you don't respect the front office for caring about power production from prospects, and d) you think the Dodgers are much better at developing prospects than the Twins. But unless Miller can hit better than this the front office didn't blow anything. Miller's never had an OPS over .700 in his career, and there's little to no evidence that the Dodgers have done anything to significantly improve him as a player. He looks like the exact same player the Twins had: a good glove, no-hit shortstop.

This will end up as a good trade for the Twins. The fielding highlights of Miller are fantastic. He's got it all with the glove and every throw from anywhere is a rope to the first baseman's chest. With the Brew Crew calling up his brother earlier and Owen hitting a little bit at first, I thought maybe this brother duo might have what it takes. Now I just don't think either can hit. Own got 300+ PA last year at a .674 OPS. This year he hasn't hit at all and isn't getting much of a chance anymore.

At this point Doncon looks to have some real upside.

5 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

You've made it very clear that a) you think the front office doesn't value defense, b) you highly value defense, c) you don't respect the front office for caring about power production from prospects, and d) you think the Dodgers are much better at developing prospects than the Twins. But unless Miller can hit better than this the front office didn't blow anything. Miller's never had an OPS over .700 in his career, and there's little to no evidence that the Dodgers have done anything to significantly improve him as a player. He looks like the exact same player the Twins had: a good glove, no-hit shortstop.

OK you have made it clear that you have the same player evaluation as this FO. The Twins didn't give away a good glove they traded away an elite glove equipped to be a GG in the MLB. He's also not a no hit SS he's just not the slugging SS that they wanted. Out of H.S. Miller was projected to be a high contact & OB hitter, the Twins didn't develop that, LAD figures they can unlock a hitter in Miller. Because they figure that Doncon will develop strength & is pull-happy he is projected to move off SS & be a 25 HR slugging 2Bman (this organization has a high glut of) that he will have to adjust his hitting when he'll face a higher caliber of pitching. 

Both prospects are young nearly the same age at the same level. Miller hasn't hit his full potential in hitting, Doncon hasn't come close to hitting those 25 HRs. either. Miller's defense is MLB ready that will only improve with experience. Doncon's defense will only digress. Time will tell who won this trade. After a few years, if Miller doesn't change there are many MLB teams happy to have a GG caliber SS. If Doncon doesn't change he doesn't make it out of high A.