Kepler Shows Breakout Potential

Wow, a potential keeper who weighs less that 250! 

Cody- is there any concerns about his low BB #s? He is not striking out but his obp could be higher with more walks.

May 10th I was slightly dropping Kepler on my Top 20... Now I have him near top 10... Love the kids potential

Staying healthy for most of the season is the key for him.  So far he hasn't done it but hopefully this year is different.

He is busting out in a big way this year. This is a surprise (maybe not that he is having a good year, but certainly this great of one so far). I would not have thought it going into the season, but September is going to be Max's time this year!

Even though he really has two options left, it will still be nice to see him in action in September. He isn't going back to the AFL.

Still just 22 years old.  His development as of late has been pretty impressive.

Let's hope he keeps it rolling

Kepler and Morneau are very different as players... I partially remember BP's commentary on Morneau after his 2001 minor league season in A-ball - 'a championship-caliber first baseman... spreading the forbidden gospel of walks and power.'

Kepler's upside is to play good corner OF defense and hit for enough average to contribute offensively.

Kepler is a guy who is going to put some pressure on Rosario and Arcia, and again: that's a good thing.

While I don't see him ever playing much CF in MLB (especially with Buxton and Hicks around) he could be a plus defender in either corner spot. It wouldn't bother me at all for Kepler to push Arcia to the DH slot and be able to run out an OF of Kepler, Buxton, and Rosario with Hicks as the 4th guy. That crew could run down a lot of balls out there and runners would be a lot more reluctant to take the extra base against those arms.

There's a talent flood coming soon as a few spots on this roster, and the Twins are going to have to make the smart/right choices in order to field the best team in the short term and keep the system stocked. It's a good problem to have, but a hard one for the GM. Who gets dealt and when?

With Plouffe, Mauer, Sano, Arcia, Vargas, Kepler, Rosario you've got 7 guys for about 5 roster spots.Making the right calls on who to keep and who to move will be critical.

This is what I wrote yesterday.  Too bad the comments don't move when a blog becomes an article.

I picked Max to click this year based on his AFL showing. His BABIP is not sustainable at .367 and I suspect his K% is, too, at 9.5%. His current BB% is only 6.3%. His offense has been very much driven by his batting average. It is perhaps wishcasting, but I perceive an uptick in plate discipline and power lately. He will need more of that as his batting average regresses. I think he is just tapping his power potential. And his confidence has to be soaring.

The good news is that he is hitting .316/.350/.474 against LHP's. But then again, that's only over 19 AB's.

I'm not sure Kepler's defense is tenable in CF for two weeks. His fringe average arm might limit him to LF and 1B.

I don't see a surplus in the OF yet. I am counting on Buxton. I have always hoped that Hicks abides. But if Arcia can't put up offensive numbers that make his defense tolerable, that leaves Kepler and Rosario. [And Sano.] With his peripherals, I think Kepler will eclipse Rosario.

Kepler and Morneau are very different as players... I partially remember BP's commentary on Morneau after his 2001 minor league season in A-ball - 'a championship-caliber first baseman... spreading the forbidden gospel of walks and power.'

 

Kepler's upside is to play good corner OF defense and hit for enough average to contribute offensively.

In 676 plate appearances for AA New Britain, Morneau put up .293/.351/.475 slash stats.  His BB% was 7.69%, his K% was 16.27%, and his Isolate Power was .182.  He was a year younger, in a different park, in a different league, in a different generation. I still don't see an edge in walks or power.

Let's see what happens when Kepler's sample is not so small. And again when he moves up a couple of rungs.

In 676 plate appearances for AA New Britain, Morneau put up .293/.351/.475 slash stats.  His BB% was 7.69%, his K% was 16.27%, and his Isolate Power was .182.  He was a year younger, in a different park, in a different league, in a different generation. I still don't see an edge in walks or power.

 

Let's see what happens when Kepler's sample is not so small. And again when he moves up a couple of rungs.

I'd be quite please if Kepler magically turned into Mickey Mantle sometime during April, but it will take a little more than a batting average driven hot streak to eliminate concerns over his struggles in A-ball.