2021 MLB Draft Day 3 Thread

hmmmmmm All college players. Do I see a strategy here? 

Now that the draft is over...my top 20 prospects.

1. Royce Lewis

2. Jordan Balazovic

3. Josh Winder

4. Chase Petty

5. Jhoan Duran

6. Jose Miranda

7. Matt Canterino

8. Aaron Sabato

9. Keoni Cavaco

10. Gilberto Celestino

11. Matt Walner

12. Noah Miller

13. Masial Urbina

14. Bailey Ober

15. Edward Julien

16. Steve Hajjar

17. Spencer Steer

18. Brent Rooker

19. Cole Sands

20. Blayne Enlow

26 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I could be mistaken, but don't they usually send even the seasoned college arms to the Rookie Leagues? Seems like a couple of guys who were known for their command, like Cole Sands, were sent to A ball. I'm trying to recall others, but it would be nice to see some of these guys move up.

Was hoping maybe Hajjar, Povich and or McCleod but with Hajjar losing velo into the season I think McCleod getting hit hard maybe they will just pitch them in relief a few innings and call it good.  Hard to say it just seems like they are light on pitchers still standing.

23 minutes ago, Dman said:

Cleveland used 18 of 21 selections on pitchers as well.  Was kind of hoping the Twins would grab more pitchers given how desolate the minors are this year.  They have grabbed quite a few guys off the street already this year.

Unfortunately for Cleveland, they don't have Trout or Ohtani

4 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

Unfortunately for Cleveland, they don't have Trout or Ohtani

 

4 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

Unfortunately for Cleveland, they don't have Trout or Ohtani

Unfortunate for them but good for us. ?

43 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The Angels selected all pitchers. Wow.

Wondering if that is a strategy more teams are going to follow.  Pitching depth is soo important and trading for good pitching is really expensive prospect wise.  It is just as expensive in FA.  Maybe more bites at the Apple and you can find more quality starting and relief pitching and not have to pay so much in prospect capital and or salary. You can always trade it if you happen to have a surplus.  Still need good position players but they can be traded for and generally can find quality for relative cheap prices for 1st base, Left field, 2nd base and DH.

Hasn't completely worked for Cleveland yet but they have been at the top or middle for a long time now. Pitching is the only thing holding the Angels back maybe just pick more pitching.

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

The Angels selected all pitchers. Wow.

1 hour ago, Thegrin said:

hmmmmmm All college players. Do I see a strategy here? 

Asked Sean Johnson about this... 

Quote

I think once you get past the second round, a lot of those high school players that you would like to bring on board become a little less signable. I think you see that across the industry, you’re going college players taken because they’re still wanting to sign and go out and play versus the HS player that still wants a lot of money. You can get out of that HS group pretty quick starting in the 2^nd or 3^rd round. If you want a HS player, you usually have to do it in the first round or two. There’s a few that sign in the 3^rd or 4^th that teams have saved some money and tried to spend it on those players, but by and large, those HS players go pretty quick, so if you want them, you better grab them.  

 

1 hour ago, Dman said:

Wondering if that is a strategy more teams are going to follow.  Pitching depth is soo important and trading for good pitching is really expensive prospect wise.  It is just as expensive in FA.  Maybe more bites at the Apple and you can find more quality starting and relief pitching and not have to pay so much in prospect capital and or salary. You can always trade it if you happen to have a surplus.  Still need good position players but they can be traded for and generally can find quality for relative cheap prices for 1st base, Left field, 2nd base and DH.

Hasn't completely worked for Cleveland yet but they have been at the top or middle for a long time now. Pitching is the only thing holding the Angels back maybe just pick more pitching.

I'd argue it would work for CLE if they put any money into hitting .... but their owner is not known for spending money lately. 

Replying to @keithlaw
For teams with no chance of signing a player I’ve always seen there is no harm with a late round pick. Is there ever a case where the risk of him not agreeing to be drafted again by the team (eg Rocker and Rox) where there can be harm? Or am I looking into this too much? Thx!

keithlaw
@keithlaw
i agree with you, i'd take a guy like that in the 11th and 12th rounds every year
 

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd argue it would work for CLE if they put any money into hitting .... but their owner is not known for spending money lately. 

Agree.  Dead last in payroll with a team that had a reasonable shot at competing for the division.  They certainly could have afforded to add someone much better than Rosario or Rosario plus an impact bat.  They could have spent twice as much and still spent less the Twins.

37 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

 

37 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Asked Sean Johnson about this... 

I think once you get past the second round, a lot of those high school players that you would like to bring on board become a little less signable. I think you see that across the industry, you’re going college players taken because they’re still wanting to sign and go out and play versus the HS player that still wants a lot of money. You can get out of that HS group pretty quick starting in the 2^nd or 3^rd round. If you want a HS player, you usually have to do it in the first round or two. There’s a few that sign in the 3^rd or 4^th that teams have saved some money and tried to spend it on those players, but by and large, those HS players go pretty quick, so if you want them, you better grab them.  

 

Nice quote!

But I counted 34 HS players taken in rounds 3-10 and 51 taken on day 3. They may not have excited the Twins terribly much, but there were plenty available to draft, and you'd think most if not all of the guys taken prior to round 10 were signable. Surely many of the early drafted day 3 guys will be too.

I kind of think with this being a crazy past year or so, the Twins likely just decided to do their scouting in the more accessible places. After the first two picks, the players chosen were almost exclusively from the big time programs and/or cities. The JUCO guy they picked in round 19 looks like the only one that would be considered "off the beaten path".

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Nice quote!

But I counted 34 HS players taken in rounds 3-10 and 51 taken on day 3. They may not have excited the Twins terribly much, but there were plenty available to draft, and you'd think most if not all of the guys taken prior to round 10 were signable. Surely many of the early drafted day 3 guys will be too.

I kind of think with this being a crazy past year or so, the Twins likely just decided to do their scouting in the more accessible places. After the first two picks, the players chosen were almost exclusively from the big time programs and/or cities. The JUCO guy they picked in round 19 looks like the only one that would be considered "off the beaten path".

Yes, some HS players were taken, but how many will sign. My guess would be any of the players taken in the first ten rounds because they likely had deals. 

I'm totally guessing here, but wouldn't be surprised if Petty is an over-slot guy and that they wouldn't have any money to go over $125,000 in rounds 11-20. Could be wrong...

I also saw that some of the top, top high school kids went in the 18th and 19th rounds, so they're obviously not signing. 

Think I read there are 7 All Stars this year taken after the 10th round, so while the talent and projections of the selections today might not have the same floors or ceilings as rounds 1-10, these aren't throw away picks in any way.

Just looking at programs, numbers, upside and overall balancing of positions, I think I like what the Twins did today. 

More arms! I'm good with that, especially considering this wasn't supposed to be a great draft and it was reportedly heaviest in college arms. Birdsell is all about projection. Barely played as a freshman and 2020 was a washout for everyone after a couple of weeks. And then has a rotator  cuff issue in his ONLY "full" season. He is clay to mold and all about health and projection. His write up says high velocity and nice slider, I would bet he gets a shot at starting initially to work, get innings, hopefully find a decent 3rd offering and ends up in the pen. I have no problem with a big arm flier in the 11th for the pen.

I also have no problem with Nowlin  as a small school LH with high K numbers as a RP in tbe 19th. Not all RP have to be converted starters.

I just have no clue what to expect from the other 4 RP selected. I'm sure the Twins see arms and projection to work with and each offers up something different. Time will tell. But Festsa  from Seton Hall HAS to be interesting, At 6' 6" and only 185lbs...if even close to accurate...you would think maturity and work would have the college junior over 200lbs in a couple of years. With any kind of control and secondary offerings you'd have to expect additional velocity will be coming. Maybe he's a shorter Ober??

Two more infielders today from decent programs/conferences. Perez has played some SS and 3B in addition to being  2B. He didn't hit AT ALL in his first full starting season but lead UCLA in HR with 11?! Hmmm...interesting. And he can draw BB? I'm guessing here but an athlete who hasn't come close to his potential yet? Meanwhile Neuse from TX Tech has hit, has a high OB and SB speed and production drafted a couple picks later. Again, pure speculation from me, but Perez is the untapped athlete with higher ceiling and Neuse is the more proven player but locked in at 2B as a table setter option?

Absolutely fine with a 3rd catcher being picked. The last couple of years the Twins have drafted and signed quite a few catchers and have transitioned a couple guys behind the plate. The system is not devoid of catchers and a few have potential. But beyond Jeffers and Rortvedt, they are all young and at A ball. It's an important position that is often underrated. Defense and working with the staff is most important. But finding a few guys who can actually produce offensively is like finding gold. So drafting 3 out of 20 is fine by me.

I look forward to learning more about Fedko, the OF from UConn. How good is his defense, range and arm? Because his triple slash this past season is impressive, even in a non power BB league. Apparently he has some power and decent speed as well. So just exactly who is he? Anxious to know.

Call me crazy, and I like how the Twins spread things around for 21 picks, but I'm kinda disappointed they only took ONE OF.  But then again, past drafts, trades and international signings, they have added a nice handful of OF options so maybe I shouldn't be surprised.

I really liked the 2019 draft as I thought it brought in a lot of talent that we are just really starting to see now as those players either didn't play in 2020 or got a half season or less. I wasn't crazy about what they did in 2020 with their handful of selections, but remain hopeful. Unless I'm missing something, Soularie and Raya have yet to see the field. But I like the balance of choices over the past 3 drafts and the early returns from 2019 thus far.

4 hours ago, Dman said:

Was hoping maybe Hajjar, Povich and or McCleod but with Hajjar losing velo into the season I think McCleod getting hit hard maybe they will just pitch them in relief a few innings and call it good.  Hard to say it just seems like they are light on pitchers still standing.

Agreed. When Canterino was signed the early reports were that he had thrown more than enough IP to just report to the Ft Myers complex to work out and then be shut down. Instead he actually got to throw a few innings. I would expect something similar here, These kids ALL missed but 2-3 weeks in 2020. A majority didn't get a full, normal schedule in 2021. But a couple weeks to a full month of rest once their seasons were done I'd be surprised if a few of them didn't get at least a few innings in the FCL or at Ft Myers proper.

6 hours ago, NapoleonComplex said:

This morning on the Day 2 thread I commented that we have plenty of savings opportunities between rounds Comp A and 6 ... easily could increase value of a 11-20 pick up to 2/3 value. I thought it would be enough to lure a HS away from a college commitment. My guy is Braden Montgomery. 

Just spitballing here, but I think it's a little hard to draft a HS talent right now unless you get them early. So many kids didn't even get to play in 2020 so your evaluation is limited. (This also applies to football and other sports). Additionally, college players have the option of returning to school for an additional season due to covid if they want to, or don't like their selection round and contract offer. And if you draft late, as the Twins are this year, your payout pool is obviously smaller than teams drafting high, You combine all of that, it could be hard to actually save $ by signing someone under slot value to have enough $ left over to take a 3rd day flier on a HS kid at this time.  I think the Twins might save a little $ on Miller to be used to sign someone else in the top 10. Unless I missed something, I think every college player drafted has another year open to them if they wish to return. I just don't think there is the $ flexibility to draft a HS player and overpay him right now unless you want to let other draftees walk over a small offer.

BTW, just saw an article about Perez on the Twins MLB site about him and his family. Didn't hardly play as a freshman, covid wiped out most of 2020 as it did for everyone. He literally grew up around baseball as his father is a very successful HS coach who has sent multitudes of players to college and the pro's and his mother is a highly successful head coach of powerhouse UCLA softball and has won multiple championships as a player, asst. coach and head coach. I made the comment he was an athletic diamond in the rough selection previously. Thinking more and more about that.

Check out the story.

Could the down sized minor leagues dropping lower level leagues like the Appalachian League add to what is driving teams to focus on college? 

Look at the paths of a couple of high school guys drafted in 2016. Tyler Benninghoff(11th round) and Kidany Salva(17th round) we’re still playing with Elizabethton in 2019. That path just doesn’t exist any more. These players will need to go to college, JC or the independent leagues to develop their game.

The draft in 2016 was relatively high school heavy for the Twins. It took all of those earlier high selections some time to get to Cedar Rapids. Only Rortvedt(2nd) made it in 2017. Kirilloff(1st), Miranda(2nd), Baddoo(2nd) and Balazovic(5th) arrived at low A in 2018. All but Balazovic played with Elizabethton first. This is the path for high school prospects drafted early in the draft. Where is the path for the players drafted later?