Why Rosie Isn't Right

I think you are right in the sense that he has been a 750 OPS player. But truly elite players aren't forced into making adjustments. They try each day to get better. I have no doubt many people have told him to slow the hacks down. It is a shame he isn't listening.

It likely has more to do with pitchers having better stuff, better control, and better command as he advanced levels.

If anything, you would think getting hit in the grill would make him more timid at the plate, and more likely to bail on inside pitches, rather than swing at more of them.

But, who knows, you could be right. Some people are strange, and there is no way of knowing.

I do know he's very talented. Lefties tend to like the ball down and/or in. He can go barrel one up anywhere. If he can learn to control the zone, he could be special.

I think this might have happened regardless of him getting hit in the face. This doesn't sound unusual when considering the difference between short season ball, low minors, high minors and the majors. Rosario's natural talent led to him being able to post good K:BB rates even if he was a free swinger in the low minors and rookie ball. 

I don't buy this premise.

An important point about Rosario is that, even though his strikeout rate is OK, he swings and misses a lot - more than Sano, in fact. But Rosario's aggression early in the count keeps his overall K rate in check.

As a result, I see almost no upside with Rosario. If he gets more patient, his K rate will spike and undo most or all of the OBP gains he gets from a moderate increase in walks. I just think he's a 4th outfielder, which is nothing to be ashamed of. It still makes him among the most talented players in the world.

I don't get the "Rosario is a fourth outfielder" arguments.

It's pretty simple. I think he's basically a 1.5 WAR player, which is the pace he's on this year, and I don't think that's good enough to be an everyday player on a team planning to win. Maybe it's more accurate to say he's a platoon player, though to date he hasn't actually shown a platoon split (a permanent lack of split is extremely rare so I assume SSS). 

Maybe you don't agree, but mine seems like a very 'understandable' viewpoint, especially considering Rosario's career MLB OBP is well under .300. 

Players can take a significant step up in performance as they approach their prime. It could happen to Rosario as he improves pitch recognition. He is worth the investment of playing time.

It's pretty simple. I think he's basically a 1.5 WAR player, which is the pace he's on this year, and I don't think that's good enough to be an everyday player on a team planning to win. Maybe it's more accurate to say he's a platoon player, though to date he hasn't actually shown a platoon split (a permanent lack of split is extremely rare so I assume SSS). 

 

Maybe you don't agree, but mine seems like a very 'understandable' viewpoint, especially considering Rosario's career MLB OBP is well under .300. 

Strong opinions about a guy who is halfway through his sophomore season and is only 24 years old.

Baseball is full of star players who had slow starts.  The Twins had their fair share of them too.  WIth you the Twins would have given up on Frank Viola, Harmon Killebrew, and Johan Santana.

One thing baseball stat websites are missing is an easy way to compare baseball players by trajectory.  How does Rosario fare when compared against contemporary players after 180 games?  How does he compare against contemporary 24 year olds?  I'm betting he ranks very well in these categories. 

Rosario looks like a different player since he returned from the minors.  His "career OBP" (silly to bring up as he has such a short career) has jumped tremendously in the past two months.  Rosario is a big reason for the Twins playing so well as of late.

I'm wondering who you think would be a better option?

 

Rosario looks like a different player since he returned from the minors.  His "career OBP" (silly to bring up as he has such a short career) has jumped tremendously in the past two months.  Rosario is a big reason for the Twins playing so well as of late.

 

I'm wondering who you think would be a better option?

Is that the Rosario who has a .290 OBP this year and falling (after peaking at a whopping .301)? 

His .290 OBP is an improvement over his .289 OBP last year.  Small steps. :-)

And IF he's a big reason why the twins have been playing so well then one must conclude he's also a big reason why we've gone 1-5 in the last 6 games where he's gotten 10Ks, four hits and zero walks. 

3 Walks since the beginning of June May.  His BABIP, however, has gone through the roof since the beginning of July.

Is that the Rosario who has a .290 OBP this year and falling (after peaking at a whopping .301)? 

 

His .290 OBP is an improvement over his .289 OBP last year.  Small steps. :-)

 

And IF he's a big reason why the twins have been playing so well then one must conclude he's also a big reason why we've gone 1-5 in the last 6 games where he's gotten 10Ks, four hits and zero walks. 

 

3 Walks since the beginning of June May.  His BABIP, however, has gone through the roof since the beginning of July.

Rosario's free swinging tendencies are well known.  As for his OBP, don't forget that his OBP at the start of the year was abysmal - far below his (short) career norms.  The rest of the team had the same problem.  But the point is, if you are comparing this year to last year's OBP and not seeing an improvement, that's why.  He has had a very bad start to the year.

Beyond the stats that show he has been playing better since his return from the minors -- he also LOOKS like a different player in his at bats.  It's true that he may be just one slump away from falling back into his bad habits, but he is young enough to where everyone should be giving him a chance.  The Twins would be daft to give up on him now.

Rosario's free swinging tendencies are well known.  As for his OBP, don't forget that his OBP at the start of the year was abysmal - far below his (short) career norms.  The rest of the team had the same problem.  But the point is, if you are comparing this year to last year's OBP and not seeing an improvement, that's why.  He has had a very bad start to the year.

 

Beyond the stats that show he has been playing better since his return from the minors -- he also LOOKS like a different player in his at bats.  It's true that he may be just one slump away from falling back into his bad habits, but he is young enough to where everyone should be giving him a chance.  The Twins would be daft to give up on him now.

Yeah, like I mentioned, his BABIP is like .400 since July.  That's why his OBP rose (and now falling again).  Nothing has changed about his approach other than more are dropping in for hits.

I haven't really seen much of a difference.  Either way, I doubt this team gives up on him.  Nor should they.  He's a nice #4 OF.

Yeah, like I mentioned, his BABIP is like .400 since July.  That's why his OBP rose (and now falling again).  Nothing has changed about his approach other than more are dropping in for hits.

 

I haven't really seen much of a difference.  Either way, I doubt this team gives up on him.  Nor should they.  He's a nice #4 OF.

I disagree.  I imagine mlb.com has footage of one of his recent at bats.  Take a look at one and compare it to before.  He is not the same player up there at all.

As I said earlier, this doesn't mean he won't fall back into bad habits.  But his good numbers are not quite as much of a mirage as you are leading on.  He won't continue to hit at an MVP pace obviously but he has legitimately improved from where he was when the season started.  

What's different, other than the results?

his   .400+ BABIP since 1 July ;-)

I certainly understand the pessimistic argument regarding Rosario. I think his ideal role on a playoff contender is as a 4th OF'er playing 100+ games all over the place and PH.

But as the Twins are currently put together in addition to the upcoming prospects he is going to have every opportunity to keep his starting spot. And this isn't going to hurt the team much even if he isn't a plus player. For the next couple of seasons the only guys that I see with the ability to take away his starting spot are Kepler, Buxton and Palka. Kepler looks like he has secured his spot with solid peripherals (decent K:BB rates and low BAPIP with a .843 OPS) but even that isn't a lock for next season. Buxton has the upside but some question marks. Palka is intriguing (30+ HR power) but the K's are a concern. I don't see how Walker will contact enough balls in the majors. Granite could be a plan B in CF if Buxton actually does bust but he isn't going to push Rosario out of LF.

Rosario will likely be starting for several years and that will be fine. 

I certainly understand the pessimistic realistic argument regarding Rosario.

FTFY :-)

FTFY :-)

Age 24 and he isn't going to get better...

But the main point is that someone needs to take his starting position by playing better. Unless of course you think that the Twins are going to make a major trade or sign a big FA. I only have 3 possible names within the next 3 years so he might be starting for awhile. Maybe a Jacque Jones level player for the Twins. Ideally a 4th OF'er but there has to be a better option.