What To Make Of Kennys Vargas

What are we to make of the 2016 season of Kennys Vargas? In 47 games, he hit .230/.333/.500 (.833) with 11 doubles and ten home runs. The slugging first baseman/designated hitter will be out of options in 2017. Can he be an everyday big league player or will he need to fit into a role of some type? Let’s dig into some of his minor league and big league numbers to see what they might tell us.

Let’s start by looking back a bit.

The Twins signed the hefty slugger from Puerto Rico in 2009. He had not been selected in the first-year players draft, but the Twins had enough interest to sign him as a non-drafted free agent. He spent his 18- and 19-year-old seasons in the Gulf Coast League. He then spent a season in Elizabethton. Unfortunately, while playing for the E-Twins, he was suspended 50 games for using a performance enhancing drug.

By the rules at the time, his fifty games only counted during the Elizabethton season. That meant in 2012, his season didn’t start until very late. He played just 44 games in Beloit. He spent 2013 in Ft. Myers and 2014 in New Britain, at least until the Twins called him up. He debuted August 1st, on his 24th birthday.

He provided power that year and was the team’s Opening Day starter in 2015 but things went poorly. He was optioned twice, once to Rochester, and then once to Chattanooga where he was able to find his offense again.

He spent most of 2016 in AAA, though he came up in early July and provided offense for a month. He struggled and a numbers situation (re: pitching issues) had him sent back to the Red Wings. He returned for September and the struggles continued.

However, he did make a couple of significant improvements in his game in 2016 that are intriguing as we go forward.

Let’s take a look at his numbers at each level of the minor leagues as well as each of his three big league seasons.

Low A - 41 G, 186 PA - .318/.419/.610 (1.030) with 10 doubles, 11 homers

High A - 125 G, 520 PA - .267/.344/.468 (.813) with 31 doubles, 19 homers

AA - 132 G, 556 PA - .282/.376/.483 (.859) with 20 doubles, 24 homers

AAA - 134 G, 553 PA - .246/.374/.438 (.812) with 22 doubles, 21 homers

MLB - 158 G, 595 PA - .251/.309/.434 (.743) with 25 doubles, 24 homers

While Vargas was never considered a prospect, he has always put up some intriguing numbers, He had 20-25 home runs potential. He took quality plate appearances and was willing to take walks. Some of the concerns were that he never really had a good glove at first base. He was very much one-dimensional and that one dimension wasn’t elite.

Low A - BB% - 15.0%, K% - 22.0%, XBH% - 11.8%

High A - BB% - 9.6%, K% - 20.2%, XBH% - 10.2%

AA - BB% - 12.4%, K% - 18.0%, XBH% - 8.3%

AAA - BB% - 16.6%, K% - 23.1%, XBH% - 8.0%

MLB - BB% - 7.6%, K% - 29.2%, XBH% - 8.2%

As you can see above, he has walked at every level, until he got to the big leagues. But the following chart will maybe shed some light on this.

MLB Time Only

2014 - BB% - 5.1%, K% - 26.9%, XBH - 8.5%

2015 - BB% - 4.9%, K% - 29.3%, XBH - 4.9%

2016 - BB% - 13.6%, K% - 32.2%, XBH - 11.8%

While the 2016 MLB sample size was smaller, he improved two things. First, he greatly improved his approach at the plate and willingness to walk. Over those first two big league seasons, he walked 21 times and struck out 117 times. While he struck out at a greater percentage in 2016, he showed much more power as well. Consider this: Vargas’ 11.8% extra-base hit percentage falls just behind Brian Dozier’s 11.9% in 2016.

So clearly maintaining a nearly 12% extra base hit rate doesn’t seem realistic, but the 8% average that he’s had in the upper levels of the minor leagues would mean 40 extra base hits over 500 plate appearances. And if he can even walk 10% of his plate appearances, that would be 50 walks.

I think a realistic season for Vargas, playing four to five games each week, would be .250/.325/.400 (.725) with about 22 doubles and 20 homers.

It’s a solid season, but it’s certainly not what a team would want from a DH and part-time first baseman.

So, let’s consider another set of details, his lefty-righty splits.

In 2016:

Vs RHP - 125 PA - .168/.280/.374 (.654)

Vs LHP - 52 PA - .378/.462/.800 (1.262)

Career:

Vs RHP - 384 PA - .223/.281/.411 (.693)

Vs LHP - 211 PA - .302/.360/.474 (.834)

In other words, Kennys Vargas mashes against left-handed pitchers. The Twins have a left-handed hitting first baseman who needs days off. We saw that the last couple of the months of the season. Paul Molitor did not play Joe Mauer often against left-handed pitching. It’s a strategy that makes sense for all involved, for Mauer, for Vargas and for the team.

Just a short paragraph on Vargas’s defense. It’s OK. It’s below average, but it’s OK enough to put out there a couple of times a week. It’s a clear step, or six, down from Joe Mauer’s first base defense, but again, it’s acceptable.

Vargas had an encouraging 2016 season after a very disappointing 2015 in Minnesota and Rochester. He did in 2016 what he was asked to do when the Twins sent him down to the minors in 2015. He had a better approach at the plate, and hit for much more power. It was a big year for him, knowing he would be out of options in 2017. Vargas showed enough to be in the plans to get some playing time next year.

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