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    Was the Tyler Mahle Trade the Worst Trade In Twins History?

    Cody Christie

    By Cody Christie

    Every team makes poor trades, and sometimes, it takes years for a front office to know the total value lost or gained in a transaction. Tyler Mahle’s time is done in Minnesota, and it's a tenure that fans will remember for all the wrong reasons.

    Image courtesy of Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

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    On Dec. 14, Tyler Mahle signed a two-year contract with the Texas Rangers for $22 million. He’ll miss the start of the 2024 season as he completes his rehab from Tommy John surgery. Expectations are for him to be able to return around the All-Star break, which is near the time the Rangers expect Jacob deGrom to return, as well. With the deal, Mahle can prove he is healthy and reach free agency again for his age-31 season.

    The Twins traded for Mahle because the club was in contention and needed a frontline starter. Things couldn’t have gone much worse, with injuries impacting his entire Twins tenure. He made three starts before landing on the IL with shoulder inflammation. Mahle returned for one more appearance, but left early. He missed the final four weeks, as Minnesota fell out of contention. The Twins hoped Mahle could return in 2023 and help the rotation. Unfortunately, he was limited to five starts before suffering the elbow injury that led to surgery. Overall, he made nine starts and provided the Twins with 0.6 WAR.

    Minnesota traded away Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar, whom the Reds subsequently flipped to the Guardians as part of a trade for Will Benson. Steer has played 184 big-league games since the trade and posted a 113 OPS+, while providing the Reds with 3.0 WAR. Encarnacion-Strand began last season at Triple-A before making his debut. In 63 games, he posted a 113 OPS+, with 0.6 WAR. Both players have promising futures and have shown the ability to be successful at the big-league level. Each is under team control for the foreseeable future. The trade will look worse as both players establish themselves as everyday players and accumulate more WAR.

    So, what are some of the other bad trades in team history, and where does the Mahle trade rank?

    2007
    Twins Acquire: Brendan Harris (-0.6 WAR), Jason Pridie (-0.2 WAR), Delmon Young (1.0 WAR)
    Rays Acquire: Eddie Morlan (0.0 WAR), Jason Bartlett (10.4 WAR), Matt Garza (8.5 WAR)
    Trade Result: -19.4 WAR

    Recently, Gregg Masterson wrote about the Young trade and how it continues to haunt the Twins 17 years later. At the time, the Twins wanted a right-handed slugger to hit between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, so the team was willing to trade multiple young pieces. Bartlett became an All-Star in Tampa, and Garza won ALCS MVP in 2008. Young never developed into the player the Twins hoped he’d be in the middle of the lineup. His OPS+ was only above 100 in one season with the Twins, and his defense was an adventure in right field. The Mahle trade hasn’t reached this level yet, but there is still time.

    2010
    Twins Acquire: Brett Jacobson (0.0 WAR), Jim Hoey (-0.8 WAR)
    Orioles Acquire: JJ Hardy (15.7 WAR), Brendan Harris (0.0 WAR)
    Trade Result: -16.5 WAR

    The Twins traded Carlos Gomez for Hardy to take over shortstop for 2010, but his time was limited in Minnesota. He suffered multiple injuries and hit .268/.320/.394, with 28 extra-base hits in 101 games. Minnesota dealt Hardy and Harris away for two relievers to make room on the roster for Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who compiled -2.3 WAR with the Twins. While Nishioka struggled, Hardy became an All-Star in Baltimore, winning three Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger. Jacobson never made the big leagues, and Hoey didn’t make another appearance after leaving the Twins.

    1995
    Twins Acquire: Kimera Bartee (0.0 WAR), Scott Klingenbeck (-1.6 WAR)
    Orioles Acquire: Scott Erickson (13.1 WAR)
    Trade Result: -14.7 WAR

    Erickson had helped the Twins win the 1991 World Series and finished runner-up for the Cy Young, but he struggled from 1993-95, with an ERA north of 5.00. Minnesota sent Erickson to Baltimore, where he reinvented himself and averaged over 230 innings per season in a four-year stretch. Injuries impacted the end of his career, but the Twins got negative value back in return, including Klingenbeck, who struggled mightily during his time in Minnesota. 

    Will the Mahle trade surpass the Delmon Young trade in lost WAR? Would you rank any other trades as the worst in team history? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

    Cody Christie is a Twins writer and content contributor. His writing can be found exclusively at Twins Daily and his voice can be heard on radio stations throughout the Upper Midwest. Outside of the Twins, he is a father, high school teacher, and avid runner.
    Follow Cody Christie on Twitter: nodaktwinsfan

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    Bob Twins Fan Since 61

    Bob Twins Fan Since 61 209

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 12/21/2023 at 10:50 AM, chpettit19 said:

    I don't have any idea what the WAR numbers are or anything, but my vote would go to the Johan trade. Trading a borderline HOF pitcher for nothing is worse than any of these trades.

    Remember that off season when Johan was one season away from free agency.  The Twins went into the winter meetings definitely planning on trading him.  Since they were not going to meet his demands for a new contract.  They tried hard to get the Yankees and Red Sox in bidding war.  At the end of the meetings and had their best offers.  The Twins passed on them and both teams went in another direction.  Which were both better offers from what I understand than the one they eventually took from the Mets.  Johan and his agent forced the Twins hand, also has trade talks dragged on.  They informed the Twins they would not be willing to negotiate any extension with the new team.  If there was not a trade made soon.  Which greatly decreased his value (one year deal).  The only player of value the Twins got was Carlos Gomez.  They got 3 young pitchers who never really developed in the deal.  Gomez blossom after the Twins traded him for JJ Hardy.  They should have kept him.  But they needed a SS at the time.  Hardy was pretty good when he played.  Should not have traded him ether for what they got.  But the Mets got stuck with paying Johan record contract for a starting pitcher at the time.  He really only had one good year for the Mets.  He got hurt and never was close to the pitcher he had been,

     

    chpettit19

    chpettit19 23,687

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    8 minutes ago, Bob Twins Fan Since 61 said:

    Remember that off season when Johan was one season away from free agency.  The Twins went into the winter meetings definitely planning on trading him.  Since they were not going to meet his demands for a new contract.  They tried hard to get the Yankees and Red Sox in bidding war.  At the end of the meetings and had their best offers.  The Twins passed on them and both teams went in another direction.  Which were both better offers from what I understand than the one they eventually took from the Mets.  Johan and his agent forced the Twins hand, also has trade talks dragged on.  They informed the Twins they would not be willing to negotiate any extension with the new team.  If there was not a trade made soon.  Which greatly decreased his value (one year deal).  The only player of value the Twins got was Carlos Gomez.  They got 3 young pitchers who never really developed in the deal.  Gomez blossom after the Twins traded him for JJ Hardy.  They should have kept him.  But they needed a SS at the time.  Hardy was pretty good when he played.  Should not have traded him ether for what they got.  But the Mets got stuck with paying Johan record contract for a starting pitcher at the time.  He really only had one good year for the Mets.  He got hurt and never was close to the pitcher he had been,

     

    None of that makes that trade a good trade. Turning down better offers makes it an even worse trade. And Johan had 3 outstanding seasons for the Mets before the injuries took their toll. 2.53 ERA in 34 starts. 3.13 ERA in 25 starts. 2.98 ERA in 29 starts. Santana made 109 starts with a 3.18 ERA for the Mets. That's much more than "one good year."

    stringer bell

    stringer bell 25,881

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    8 hours ago, Brandon said:

    from what I remember the Twins had 3 or 4 good starters and Reed completed the rotation while Lawton was one of their best hitters that year and the Twins sorely needed offense.  and trading Lawton killed the offense.  but Reed was ok the rest of that year and good the next and terrible after that.

    I think Reed wasn't liked because he did what was in his best interest and crossed the picket line during the strike in 1995 and was a replacement player.

    IIRC, the "scabs" that crossed the picket lines had that with them the rest of their careers. From what little I remember of Rick Reed pitching for the Twins, he did okay except for facing Jim Thome and while there was a permanent distance between anyone who crossed the line, I don't think there was a whole bunch of personal animosity towards him. 

    Lawton was a good player, Reed was a good pitcher. Nowadays, getting a decent starter for one regular player (not a superstar) is considered a steal. 

    Nine of twelve

    Nine of twelve 9,469

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 12/22/2023 at 8:40 AM, DJL44 said:

    On paper, no. But from what I remember Lawton was well liked and nobody liked Rick Reed.

    Rick Reed was persona non grata in the eyes of almost all players because he decided to play during the replacement-player phase of the 1995 season. Even if he would have been a great pitcher and a great guy he would still have been disliked.

    Edit: ninja'd by Brandon. That's what I get for writing before reading.

    nclahammer

    nclahammer 1,261

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 12/21/2023 at 11:23 AM, DJL44 said:

    Brunanksy for Herr 

    Lawton for Reed

    Hicks for Murphy

    Carew for Engle

     

    From an emotional impact, the Tom Brunansky trade hurts the worst for me.  The Twins were coming off such a high, an 87' World Series victory and then they trade an intrigal part of Mount Crushmore.  I wept upon hearing the news.

    DJL44

    DJL44 16,605

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 12/22/2023 at 4:45 PM, RpR said:

    IF, if Mahle does well next year, it will look worse.

    I don't understand this. That would mean they made a trade for a good pitcher and got unlucky with health. I think it would actually make the front office look better.

    Greglw3

    Greglw3 971

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 12/21/2023 at 9:49 PM, stringer bell said:

    Carew compiled 17.4 WAR (BBRef) in his seven years with the Angels. While the Twins didn't get any stars from California, I don't think this qualifies as a disaster. 

    Hw was a different player at the Met and surrounded by great hitters like Tony Oliva, Killebrew, Lyman Bostock, Larry Hisle, Glenn Adams, Steve Braun. He won 7 batting titles and , just my opinion, he would have won 3-4 more had he stayed with the Twins. This is a guy that ran off seasons of .350, .359, .364, .388 all up to 1977. He batted in arguably the best lineup in Twins history in 1977.

    The whole point is that Rod Carew never should have been traded, period. With the Twins, he was as good as any player in MLB history including ultra high batting averages, myriad bunt singles, stealing home 7 times in one season, winning batting titles by mind boggling margins (to compare to Honus Wagner, Gwynn, Speaker). He won ’77 batting title by 52 points.

    I wouldn’t measure him by any of the SABR statistics because they would miss his subtle things like bunting for 30 hits a season or 40+ steals 2 seasons.

    The Angels just weren’t very good when he was with them.

    In my mind, trading Carew coming off a very recent .388, 38 2B, 16 3B, 14 HR, 100 RBI MVP season on a 4th place team and in his prime was akin to the Angels just up and trading Mike Trout a few years ago when he was in his prime.

    I don’t think you can compare a trade for Tyler Mahle to a totally unnecessary trade of Carew. The  Caliber of players traded is wider than the Grand Canyon! Steer and Strand look to be good but the odds of either one of them being as good as Carew is 1 in 500,000 (est).

     

     

    Greglw3

    Greglw3 971

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 12/24/2023 at 7:52 AM, nclahammer said:

    From an emotional impact, the Tom Brunansky trade hurts the worst for me.  The Twins were coming off such a high, an 87' World Series victory and then they trade an intrigal part of Mount Crushmore.  I wept upon hearing the news.

    That was a horrible trade, the Brunansky trade - just mind boggling! The Blyleven trade was stupid and awful. The Santana trade was very very bad.

    I didn’t like the Terry Ryan maneuver of trading two High quality CF in a short time span for what? I especially missed Span.

    Going way back to the 70s, Griffith traded a very solid year to year hitter name Jim Holt for Pat Bourque who was a total bust for the Twins.

    For me trading the greatest Twins player of them all for a care package that produced very little when Carew was in his prime was the #1 worst trade.

    Nine of twelve

    Nine of twelve 9,469

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I wonder if those rating the Carew and Blyleven trades among the worst were even alive then. As those of us who were fans then know, Blyleven was dissatisfied with his salary and Carew was dissatisfied with Calvin Griffith's infamous remarks in Waseca. Both players were very public in their remarks about their dissatisfactions and it was eminently clear that there was no choice but to trade them. Both situations were like the Johan Santana situation but with much more animosity. In a case like that you will wind up being underpaid and that's what happened. The trades themselves were as good as could be expected; in each case the problem lay in the bad situations arising in the first place.



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