Twins Win Wild One In Cleveland

Relive the wild ride which was Game 159 for the Minnesota Twins this season through win expectancy.

TWINS TAKE FIRST LEAD

The game was scoreless through the first three innings of the game. With one out in the top of the fourth:

Joe Mauer doubled to left (5.2%).

Miguel Sano grounded out to third base (-4.2%).

Trevor Plouffe hit a ground-rule double to center to score Mauer (14.1%).

The Twins had the 1-0 lead which has proven to be important many times. Obviously one run is rarely enough, and that would be the case on this night.

PITCHER’S BEST FRIEND

In the bottom half of the fourth, Cleveland mounted a threat and as has been the case a couple of times this series, it began with Jason Kipnis.

Jason Kipnis doubled to center (-8.6%).

Carlos Santana grounded out to second, advancing Kipnis to third base (+1.7%).

Lonnie Chisenhall walked (-2.8%)

Abraham Almonte grounded into a double play to end the threat and the inning (+16.0%).

Ground ball double plays are obviously a big thing for a pitcher and his team. Any time you can get two outs on one pitch or one batter, this can have a huge effect on the game. In a low-scoring game, every out is important, but that was one of the bigger plays of the game.

TWO-RUN HOMERS ARE BIG

Tyler Duffey was going really well. He had thrown six shutout innings and the team had a 1-0 lead. The bottom of the seventh inning began with a Lonnie Chisenhall strikeout. The Twins win expectancy was 71%. And then, well…

Abraham Almonte singled. (-5.4%)

Robert Perez drills two-run homer to center field. (-44.2%)

The Twins win expectancy suddenly was down to just 21.4% I think it’s fair to say that was a “game-changing” turn of events.

This view and win expectancy don't necessarily illustrate just how good Tyler Duffey was in this game. In fact, he ended the game with a negative win expectancy despite making one big mistake in 6.1 innings of work. He came through for the Twins when they needed him, again!

THE TWINS RESPONSE

With Brian Shaw taking over for Trevor Bauer, Paul Molitor went with his gut a couple of times. Following an Aaron Hicks ground out, Molitor decided to use Danny Santana as a pinch-hitter for Kurt Suzuki. Santana had been 0-10 as a pinch hitter this season. However, he worked a rare walk. He also had Danny Santana take off toward second and Eduardo Escobar swung and did what he does best.

Danny Santana walked (6.1%)

Eduardo Escobar doubles to left field line to score Santana from first (30.5%)

The Twins had tied the game at two and hoped to add a little more insurance.

PITCHER’S BEST FRIEND (PART 2)

After the Escobar RBI double, things got a little better… for a little while.

Brian Dozier tapped an infield single to the first baseman to advance Escobar to third (+10.4%)

Cleveland brings in Cody Allen.

Joe Mauer grounded into a 4-6-3 double play to end the threat (-25.1%).

As we said above, double plays tend to be pretty important in close games, especially late. Things tend to shift in terms of win expectancy in this type of game. Let me replay that top of the 8^th in terms of overall win expectancy.

Aaron Hicks grounds out (Twins likelihood of winning - 18.2%)

Danny Santana walked (24.3%)

Eduardo Escobar doubles to left field line to score Santana from first (54.8%)

Brian Dozier tapped an infield single to the first baseman to advance Escobar to third (+65.2%)

Cleveland brings in Cody Allen.

Joe Mauer grounded into a 4-6-3 double play to end the threat (40.1%).

Every play is magnified in a close game, and with the Twins playing a Meaningful Game in October, it becomes even more important and magnified.

THE NINTH INNING (GULP!)

Oh man, this game is intense. We wanted this, Meaningful Games, but I had almost forgotten how gut-wrenching each pitch can be! Here is the Twins half of the ninth:

Miguel Sano flew out to center. (-5.5%, 44.5%)

Trevor Plouffe reached on an error by Jose Ramirez (+5.7%, 50.3%)

Eduardo Nunez pinch ran for Plouffe (no statistical change, but the speed does help)

Eddie Rosario singled to right field and Nunez advanced to third, Rosario advanced to second on the throw. (+21.9%, 72.2%)

With Torii Hunter batting, Cody Allen throws a (very) wild pitch to score Nunez, Rosario to third (+17.2%, 89.4%).

Hunter hits a deep fly ball to right field to score Eddie Rosario. Twins lead 4-2 (+3.1%, 82.5%).

Aaron Hicks flew out to center (-0.3%, 92.6%).

On to the bottom of the ninth!! Twins lead 4-2. Ironic, maybe, that it was an error by Jose Ramirez that led to the Twins big ninth inning. Think they’re even now?! The Twins took advantage of an error and a wild pitch, and Torii Hunter had a tough plate appearance that ended with a perfect scenario. Great inning for the Twins!

THE BOTTOM OF THE NINTH

Kevin Jepsen came in to replace Glen Perkins who had a 1-2-3 eighth frame.

Carlos Santana struck out (+4.0%, 96.6%)

Lonnie Chisenhall popped out to shortstop (+2.5%, 99.1%)

Abraham Almonte bunted for a single (-2.7%, 96.1%)

Robert Perez struck out looking to end the game (+3.9%, 100%).

Robert Perez wasn’t able to come up with a second game-altering hit, and Kevin Jepsen was terrific. Jepsen recorded his 10th save in 11 chances for the Twins this year. The Twins won for the 83^rd time this season!

Now, we watch scoreboards!!